The Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE) is a collaborative network of the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, the Royal Observatory of Belgium and the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium.
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Published by the STCE - this issue : 16 Jul 2015. The Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE) is a collaborative network of the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, the Royal Observatory of Belgium and the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium. |
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On 22 June 2015, the strongest proton event so far this year took place, with the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaching 1070 pfu (proton flux units; Notes 1 and 2). It was only the 5th such event (more than 1000 pfu) so far this solar cycle (SC), and only the 41st since the start of systematic satellite measurements began in 1976. Interestingly, the maximum (19:00UT) coincided with a period of severe geomagnetic storming (Kp=8) from 18:00-21:00UT, and with a a moderate M6.5 flare peaking at 18:23UT. This was nicely illustrated by the overview chart from SWPC (image underneath).
It goes without saying that there are few of this kind of coincidences, not in the least because of the low number of strong proton events. Also, since 1976, there have only been about 500 X-class flares and 6000 M-class flares. Geomagnetically, there have been only about 500 3-hour periods with strong to (extremely) severe geomagnetic storming. So, it is obvious that the instances of strong geomagnetic storming and strong solar activity falling together with a strong radiation storm are quite rare.
Using the NOAA charts and listings of all these events, a quick review covering SC23 and SC24 revealed that only 11 days satisfy the above conditions. These days are displayed in the table underneath, with the intensity of the individual storms as described according to the NOAA-scales (see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation for a full description, and the second table underneath for a summary).
The Halloween period (29 October 2003) as well as the Bastille Day event (15 July 2000) are both having coinciding storms during and after the maximum proton flux (Smax). The graphs underneath provide other examples of coinciding storms: on the left the events from 6 November 2001, and on the right those from 26 July 2004. Each display the x-ray flux, proton flux, and evolution of the Kp-index. It is clear that when increased activity of these three fall together, the resulting space weather effects can be felt in all domains. A good thing this does not happen very frequently!
Note 1 - 10 MeV = 10 million eV. The eV (electron volt) is a very tiny amount of energy corresponding to about 0.16 billionth of a billionth of a Joule. For comparison, a flying mosquito has a kinetic energy of about a trillion eV (= 1000 billion eV).
Note 2 - pfu: proton flux unit. This is the number of particles registered per second, per square cm, and per steradian.
Credits - Data and imagery were obtained from NOAA's Warehouse (ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/), SWPC (http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/SEP/), NGDC (ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/space-weather/solar-data/solar-features/solar-flares/x-rays/goes/), and Helioviewer (http://helioviewer.org/#).
During the first 2 days of the period, flaring activity was dictated by NOAA 2381. This active region produced a total of 17 C-class and 2 M-class flares in 48 hours, the strongest flare being an M1.7 flare peaking on 06 July at 20:40UT. NOAA 2381 then quickly simplified and the flaring activity stalled. The other regions were mostly quiet.
Several filament and prominence eruptions were observed, but none of the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) had an obvious earth-directed component. The most prominent CME was about 150 degrees wide and first observed by LASCO/C2 on 09 July at 23:36UT. It seems to have been the result of a series of slow eruptions along a lengthy filament channel near -45 degrees latitude. The bulk of the ejected material was directed well south of the ecliptic.
Daily Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN, red curve with shaded error) derived by a simplified method from real-time data from the worldwide SILSO network. It extends the official Sunspot Number from the full processing of the preceding month (green line). The plot shows the last 30 days (~ one solar rotation). The horizontal blue line shows the current monthly average, while the green dots give the number of stations included in the calculation of the EISN for each day.
| DAY | BEGIN | MAX | END | LOC | XRAY | OP | 10CM | TYPE | Cat | NOAA |
| 06 | 0824 | 0844 | 0859 | N17E42 | M1.0 | SN | 2381 | |||
| 06 | 2032 | 2040 | 2050 | N18E36 | M1.7 | 2N | 2381 |
| LOC: approximate heliographic location | TYPE: radio burst type |
| XRAY: X-ray flare class | Cat: Catania sunspot group number |
| OP: optical flare class | NOAA: NOAA active region number |
| 10CM: peak 10 cm radio flux |
Solar flare activity fluctuated between very low and moderate during the week.
In order to view the activity of this week in more detail, we suggest to go to the following website from which all the daily (normal and difference) movies can be accessed:
http://proba2.oma.be/ssa
This page also lists the recorded flaring events.
A weekly overview movie can be found here (SWAP week 276).
http://proba2.oma.be/swap/data/mpg/movies/weekly_movies/weekly_movie_2015_07_06.mp4
Details about some of this week’s events, can be found further below.
Plasma dynamics on the north west limb @ 10:47 SWAP image
Find a movie of the event here (SWAP movie)
http://proba2.oma.be/swap/data/mpg/movies/20150710_swap_movie.mp4
At the beginning of the period, solar wind was under the waning influence of the high speed stream (HSS) of a negative coronal hole (CH). Active geomagnetic conditions were recorded. During the subsequent days, quiet to unsettled conditions were recorded, until the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding the HSS of a positive equatorial CH on 10 July. Wind speed increased to values near 650 km/s, and Bz oscillated between -14 and +14 nT. This resulted in active conditions in Dourbes, and some minor storm conditions (Kp = 5) during the 21:00-24:00UT (10 July) and 03:00-06:00UT (11 July) periods. At the end of the week, solar wind speed was still high near 600 km/s.
The figure shows the time evolution of the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) (in red) during the last week at three locations:
a) in the northern part of Europe(N61°, 5°E)
b) above Brussels(N50.5°, 4.5°E)
c) in the southern part of Europe(N36°, 5°E)
This figure also shows (in grey) the normal ionospheric behaviour expected based on the median VTEC from the 15 previous days.
The VTEC is expressed in TECu (with TECu=10^16 electrons per square meter) and is directly related to the signal propagation delay due to the ionosphere (in figure: delay on GPS L1 frequency).
The Sun's radiation ionizes the Earth's upper atmosphere, the ionosphere, located from about 60km to 1000km above the Earth's surface.The ionization process in the ionosphere produces ions and free electrons. These electrons perturb the propagation of the GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signals by inducing a so-called ionospheric delay.
See http://stce.be/newsletter/GNSS_final.pdf for some more explanations ; for detailed information, see http://gnss.be/ionosphere_tutorial.php
Start : 2015-07-21 - End : 2015-07-23
The conference will review past and recent achievements, as well
as future challenges in the field of solar coronal loop
physics.
Website:
http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/astro/cl7/index.html
Start : 2015-07-28 - End : 2015-08-04
Heliophysics is all of the science common to the field of the
Sun-Earth connections. This fast-developing field of research
covers many traditional sub-disciplines of space physics,
astrophysics, and climate studies. The NASA Living with a Star
program, with its focus on the basic science underlying all aspects
of space weather, acts as a catalyst to bring the many research
disciplines together to deepen our understanding of the system of
systems formed by the Sun-Earth connection.
Website:
http://www.heliophysics.ucar.edu/
Start : 2015-07-30 - End : 2015-08-06
The 34th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC) will be held
from July 30 to August 6, 2015, in The Hague, The Netherlands. It
is an important and large conference in the field of Astroparticle
Physics. The ICRC covers: cosmic-ray physics, solar and
heliospheric physics, gamma-ray astronomy, neutrino astronomy, and
dark matter physics.
Website: http://icrc2015.nl
Start : 2015-08-31 - End : 2015-09-04
The purpose of this conference is to discuss the latest
questions and results in solar and stellar physics. Solar and
stellar seismology will be one particular focus but contributions
on all aspects of solar-stellar relations will be welcome. We aim
to establish links and synergies between the day- and night-time
fields of astrophysics.
Website:
http://www.iac.es/congreso/solarnet-3meeting/
Start : 2015-09-02 - End : 2015-09-04
The Workshop will address how the joint exploration of the
corona and inner heliosphere will lead to advances in our
understanding of coronal heating and solar wind acceleration, the
magnetic and plasma structure of the heliosphere, and the
acceleration of energetic particles at shocks and flares. The
workshop will inspire research that will make use of SO and SPP
observations within the context of the NASA Heliophysics
Observatory System and identify key areas for preparatory research.
Synergistic observations from other ground based and space based
assets will also be addressed.
Website:
http://www.solarprobeplus.org/2015/
Start : 2015-09-06 - End : 2015-09-13
The International Workshop and School on solar system plasma
turbulence, intermittency and multifractals (STORM 2015) focus on
the quantitative experimental, theoretical and numerical
investigation of turbulence, intermittency, fractal/multifractal
features, waves and coherent structures interaction, criticality
and non-linear cross-scale coupling. As widely documented by
in-situ satellite measurements and remote or ground-based
observations, turbulence, intermittency and dynamical complexity
are quite ubiquitous processes observed in the dynamics of solar,
planetary and interplanetary plasmas, as well as in the dynamical
evolution of proxies linked to magnetospheric and ionospheric
variability.
Unfolding the spatio-temporal structure of magnetic field and
plasma fluctuations from experimental observations and numerical
simulations provides further insight on the structure of plasma
turbulence and intermittency. On the theoretical side, the
understanding of such complex dynamical behavior cannot be simply
surmised from the basic fluid/kinetic equations, but instead
requires novel theoretical, experimental and data analysis
approaches. The workshop is a forum to present and discuss latest
results in these fields. The purpose of the school is to give to a
young audience of Graduate, Ph.D. students, and postdoc scientists,
which ideally represents the next generation of scholars in the
physics of space plasmas, an overall view of both theoretical and
data analysis tools apt to fully exploit unique and unprecedented
observations that will be provided by future upcoming mission like
Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus.
Website:
http://www.spacescience.ro/conferences/storm2015/
Start : 2015-09-07 - End : 2015-09-11
The meeting will cover various aspects of solar physics and
space weather related processes. The special emphasis will be paid
to progress in data-driven simulations and high-resolution
spectro-polarimetry as powerful diagnostic techniques to unravel
information about magnetic fields in the photosphere and
chromosphere of the Sun.
Website:
http://ssg.group.shef.ac.uk/Conferences/Ukraine_UK_2015/index.html
Start : 2015-09-14 - End : 2015-09-18
This summer school will acquaint a generation of young
researchers (advanced master students, PhDs, and junior
postdoctoral researchers) to modern open-source software efforts
adapted to High Performance Computing platforms, with a deliberate
focus on hands-on sessions. In these sessions, participants will
work with three different open-source software packages, learn
about their typical applications and evaluate their performance
aspects on massively parallel systems.
Website:
http://www.fz-juelich.de/ias/jsc/EN/Expertise/Workshops/Conferences/CSAM-2015/_node.html
Start : 2015-09-14 - End : 2015-09-18
Hinode is a solar satellite funded jointly by JAXA, NASA, ESA
and STFC/UKSA that has entered its ninth year of operations. It has
had a major impact across many areas of solar physics and
facilitated many fundamental discoveries. These findings are
documented in over 850 papers in the refereed literature and
hundreds of papers in conference proceedings. With 96 refereed
publications in 2013 and more than 81 papers in 2014, Hinode has
remained scientifically highly productive. A non-exhaustive list
indicates over 100 students globally who are undertaking or have
completed PhDs using Hinode data. With the Solar Orbiter on the
horizon, there is a good chance that the two missions will operate
at the same time. The meeting will help the solar physics community
to maximise the science return from the Orbiter.
Website:
https://star.pst.qub.ac.uk/wiki/doku.php/public/hinode9/start
Start : 2015-09-14 - End : 2015-09-18
The aim of RADECS conferences is to provide an annual European
forum for the presentation and discussion of the latest advances in
the field of radiation effects on electronic and photonic
materials, devices, circuits, sensors, and systems. The scope of
the conference encompasses technological processes and design
techniques for producing radiation tolerant systems for space,
aeronautical or terrestrial applications, as well as relevant
methodologies for their characterization and qualification. The
conference features a technical program, an Industrial Exhibition,
and one day tutorial or "short course" on radiation effects. The
technical program includes oral and poster sessions and round
tables.
Website:
http://www.radecs2015.org/
Start : 2015-09-21 - End : 2015-09-24
On the occasion of the forthcoming retirement of Prof. Costas
Alissandrakis, we organize an international solar physics
conference as a tribute to his career. Speakers will address the
present state of knowledge of topics that include: The quiet Sun;
Coronal/chromospheric heating; Solar magnetic fields; Active
regions; Flares; Coronal mass ejections; and Shocks.
Website: http://solar15.uoi.gr/
Start : 2015-09-21 - End : 2015-09-26
A good understanding of solar-terrestrial processes is
fundamental to modelling the influence of solar variability on the
Earth's environment and climate. To capture all the physical
aspects of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere
interaction, and also the impact of solar variability on climate,
the Sun-Earth system has to be studied as a whole. The main purpose
of this school is to provide graduate, PhD students and also young
post-doc researchers with a global view of the main physical
processes by which solar variability affects the Earth's
environment. In addition, an overview of different data analysis
and methods for describing solar-terrestrial relations will be
given. The school will provide a mix of lectures and activities
requiring students participation.
Website:
http://www.cifs-isss.org/
Start : 2015-10-05 - End : 2015-10-09
This CSPM-2015 scientific meeting will cover various aspects of
solar dynamic and magnetic phenomena which are observed over the
entire electromagnetic spectrum: white-light, Hα, Ca II,
and radio from ground and in a variety of other wavelengths (white
light, UV and EUV, and X-rays) from space. Emphasis will also be
placed on instrumentation, observing techniques, and solar image
processing techniques, as well as theory and modelling through
detailed radiative transfer in increasingly realistic MHD models.
The long-term (cyclic) evolution of solar magnetism and its
consequence for the solar atmosphere, eruptive phenomena, solar
irradiation variations, and space weather, will be in focus. Here,
special attention will be devoted to the long-term observations
made in Coimbra and also to the results of the SPRING / SOLARNET
and SCOSTEP VarSITI studies. In particular, the weak solar activity
during the current solar maximum will be discussed. Finally, since
this meeting is organised around the 90th anniversary of performing
the first spectroheliographic observations in Coimbra, a session
will be specially dedicated to new solar instruments (both
ground-based and space-borne) that will give access to unexplored
solar atmospheric features and dynamic phenomena over the coming
years.
Website:
http://www.mat.uc.pt/~cspm2015/
Start : 2015-10-18 - End : 2015-10-24
The workshop aims to bring together experts in the field of
cosmic rays and solar energetic particles with an additional focus
on their propagation inside the heliosphere and their interaction
with the magnetosphere. The talks will present the most recent
results related to solar energetic particles (SEPs), solar
modulation, space radiation and related phenomena.
Website:
http://www.phys.hawaii.edu/ams02/pages/workshop.php
Start : 2015-10-19 - End : 2015-10-23
The workshop aims to gather experts from the various fields of
remote sensing observations of the inner heliosphere,
including white light, EUV, and radio observation,
together with modellers in order to tackle key outstanding science
and space weather operational issues, establish closer
working relations, and devise the best ways to move the field
forward as a whole. In addition, the science learned from remote
Âsensing observations is critical to improving our
capabilities of space weather forecasting. The workshop
aims to look at ways in which we can more easily and efficiently
share and access the various types of data between individual
groups and subÂcommunities and to officially launch the
IPS Common Data Format v1.0 (IPSCDFv1.0) now in use. It also aims
to allow investigations into ways in which we model the inner
heliosphere looking at the advantages and disadvantages of the
available modelling, updates on present and future
remoteÂsensing capabilities, and investigating further
the ways in which these data sets all complement each other and are
necessary to gain knowledge and understanding of the fundamental
physical processes that occur within the inner heliosphere. These
are critical processes that are key to both Heliophysics science as
well as to spaceÂweather operations and forecasting.
Website:
http://www.sciesmex.unam.mx/workshop2015/
Start : 2015-10-26 - End : 2015-10-29
In the tradition of the series of »Potsdam
Thinkshops«, we invite instrument specialists,
observers, modellers, and theorists to exchange ideas, to stimulate
discussion, to initiate future collaborations among participants,
and to attract new users of instruments by showcasing the
capabilities. The aim is to make progress towards a comprehensive
description of solar eruptive events effectively aggregating their
global properties as well as their highly dynamic fine
structure.
Website:
https://thinkshop.aip.de/12/cms/
Start : 2015-10-26 - End : 2015-10-30
The workshop is to improve the scientific understanding of the
origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the
prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential
impact on the Earth. The workshop engages coordinated international
activities in observation, theory and modeling, and involves
scientists in both developed and developing countries, and provides
an online platform for educational opportunities for students.
Website:
http://cintli.geofisica.unam.mx/congreso/
Start : 2015-11-10 - End : 2015-11-13
Observations of the Sun and Earth from space have revolutionized
our view and understanding about impacts of solar variability and
anthropogenic forcing on Earth climate. For more than three solar
cycles since 1978, the total and spectral solar irradiance (TSI and
SSI) and global terrestrial atmosphere/surface have been observed
continuously, enabling unprecedented quality data for Sun-climate
studies. The primary objective of this symposium is to convene
climate scientists, solar physicists, and experimentalists together
for a better understanding how Earth climate system changes and
responds to solar variability.
Website:
http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/news-events/meetings/2015-sun-climate-symposium/
Start : 2015-11-23 - End : 2015-11-27
The European Space Weather Week (ESWW) is the European forum for
Space Weather users, forecasters, scientists and the involved
industries, as proven by the high attendance to the ESWW 11 in
November 2014.
The ESWW 12 will be held in Belgium in November, 23-27, 2015 and
its organisation has already started and is benefiting from the
experience and inputs from the past editions.
Website: http://stce.be/esww12/
Start : 2016-05-22 - End : 2016-05-27
Electric currents are fundamental to the structure and dynamics
of space plasmas, including our own near-Earth space environment
(also called "geospace"). This recognition is one of the great
achievements in space research, going back to the beginning of the
last century. With the current multi-spacecraft missions, such as
Cluster, THEMIS and Swarm, we have unprecedented opportunities to
unravel many of the intriguing puzzles about electric currents.
The conference will provide a forum in which various space
science communities can come together to discuss recent
achievements of observational, theoretical, and modelling studies.
The emphasis will be on cross-disciplinary science sessions.
Website:
http://chapman.agu.org/spacecurrents/general-informationabout-conference/
Start : 2016-07-30 - End : 2016-08-07
The 41st COSPAR Scientific Assembly will be held in Istanbul,
Turkey from 30 July - 7 August 2016. This Assembly is open to all
bona fide scientists.
Website:
https://www.cospar-assembly.org/
Start : 2016-10-09 - End : 2016-10-13
The scientific goal of this symposium is to discuss recent
results on the processes shaping the structure of the solar
atmosphere and driving plasma eruptions and explosive events.
Activity of the solar atmosphere entails numerous multi-scale
processes. State-of-the-art solar instrumentation is revealing the
dynamics of the Sun with unprecedented temporal and spatial
resolutions. Together with advanced numerical simulations these
investigations are making new steps in our understanding of the
complex dynamical structure of the solar atmosphere.
Major unsolved problems of astrophysics such as how the solar
corona is heated and how the solar wind and heliosphere are powered
have their roots in the origin of small-scale magnetic fields
constituting the Sun's 'magnetic carpet' in the
photosphere and appearing as 'magnetic canopy' in the
chromosphere.
Website:
http://www.iau.org/science/meetings/future/symposia/1160/