The Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS)

The Discriminant Analysis Flare Forecasting System (DAFFS) prototype will be demonstrated and described in this ESWW12 Fair Stand. Under development for the US NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center by NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA), DAFFS will use near-real-time data from NOAA, SDO/HMI, and the NSO/GONG network to issue both region- and full-disk forecasts of solar flares, based on multi-variable non-parametric Discriminant Analysis. Presently, DAFFS is being designed to provide forecasts which match those issued by NOAA in terms of thresholds and validity period, but the large range of possible options will be described in this presentation. We look forward to discussing DAFFS' progress and capabilities with the ESWW12 participants, and solicit suggestions for presentation and future desired capabilities.

DAFFS development at NWRA and this presentation are supported by NOAA/SBIR contracts WC-133R-13-CN-0079 and WC-133R-14-CN-0103, with additional support from NASA contract NNH12CG10C, plus acknowledgment to the SDO/HMI and NSO/GONG facilities and NOAA/SWPC personnel for data products and support.

Contact: KD Leka, Graham Barnes, Eric Wagner, of NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA)