Session - Model Metrics, Verification and Validation

M. Angling, A. Glover, P. Jiggens, S. Bingham, S. Elvidge

In order to provide reliable services to end-users, it is crucial to understand the strengths and potential limitations of the various elements underpinning those services. This includes the assumptions and algorithms on which models are based, and also the reliability of the associated infrastructure: e.g. data systems, space and ground-based measurement infrastructure. This also includes situations during extreme solar and geomagnetic conditions.

At the present time, within the space weather community, prototype services frequently operate as capability demonstrators and a full verification of their ability to reproduce/predict elements of the space environment under a range of space weather conditions, from the moderate to the extreme, has yet to be completed. Forecast accuracy has recently been addressed by a number of separate activities, but as yet a community-wide consensus on how to address this question and provide relevant information supporting end-users, service developers and modellers themselves for the wide range of models and domains involved has not been reached.

This session targets modellers, service developers and service providers. The session will review current activities and initiatives ongoing both in Europe and internationally and will highlight recent results of coordinated model testing. Dedicated splinter meetings will follow the session in order to discuss coordinated test results in more detail and address verification & validation needs for the current generation of activities under development and in planning. The session will build upon work discussed at the ISES Space Weather Forecast Verification Workshop in April 2015 and will promote further discussions at the ILWS-COSPAR workshop session on metrics to assess space weather predictions in January 2016. Papers will be especially encouraged from ionospheric modellers who have adopted the ionospheric testing scenario that will be suggested at the AT-RASC meeting in the spring.

Wednesday November 25, 11:00 - 13:00, Permeke

Poster Viewing
Wednesday November 25, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster area

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Talks : Time schedule

Wednesday November 25, 11:00 - 13:00, Permeke
11:00Verification of forecast probabilities at RWC BelgiumDevos, A et al.Oral
11:20Initial Results of the Advanced European Ne Assimilation System (AENEAS)Elvidge, S et al.Oral
11:40Validation of F2 Layer Peak Height and Density by Real-Time IRIGalkin, I et al.Oral
12:00Space weather verification at the Met Office.Bingham, S et al.Oral
12:20Metrics of model performance for electron fluxes (<200 keV) at geostationary orbitGanushkina, N et al.Oral
12:40Performance Verification of ESA's SSA/SWE A-EFFort Service Georgoulis, M et al.Oral


Wednesday November 25, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster area
1Real time forecasting methods validation with the Flare ScoreboardMurray, S et al.e-Poster
2Quasi longitudinal approximation for application to ionospheric ray tracing and absorptionSettimi, A et al.p-Poster
3LYRA flare probabilities service and its performance measureDammasch, I et al.p-Poster