Session - Space Weather, Spacecraft Operations and Spacecraft Anomalies

C. Armiens, R. Horne, T. Onsager, D. Pitchford

Space Weather and the space environment are important issues for a spacecraft operator; from cradle - to - grave, the effects are considered and encountered during the design, build and operation of a spacecraft. This session is a coming together of the user and research communities. Space industry participants are encouraged to discuss their experiences of Space Weather and their end-user needs for data and services. The research community is asked to showcase work directed at this important user community. Topics to be covered include:

- The analysis of significant Space Weather events.
- Modelling and forecasting to support spacecraft operations.
- Hosted sensors as assets for both the user and research communities.
- Emerging challenges due to innovative technology and mission concepts.
- Spacecraft anomaly analysis and statistics.
- Spacecraft robustness and Space Weather events - would a severe Space Weather event today result in more or less disruption than the Halloween storm period?

Talks
Thursday November 26, 11:00 - 13:00, Mercator

Poster Viewing
Thursday November 26, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster area

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Talks : Time schedule

Thursday November 26, 11:00 - 13:00, Mercator

11:00	Extreme Relativistic Electron Fluxes at Geosynchronous Orbit: Analysis of GOES E > 2 MeV Electrons	Meredith, N et al.	Oral
	Nigel Meredith[1], Richard Horne[1], John Isles[1], Juan Rodriguez[2,3]
	[1] British Antarctic Survey; [2] University of Colorado Boulder; [3] National Geophysical Data Center
	Relativistic electrons (E > 1 MeV) cause internal charging on satellites and are an important space weather hazard. A key requirement in space weather research concerns extreme events and knowledge of the largest flux expected to be encountered over the lifetime of a satellite mission. This is interesting both from a scientific and practical point of view since satellite operators, engineers and the insurance industry need this information to better evaluate the effects of extreme events on their spacecraft. Here we conduct an extreme value analysis of daily averaged E > 2 MeV electron fluxes from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) during the 19.5 year period from 1 January 1995 to 30 June 2014. We find that the daily averaged flux measured at GOES West is typically a factor of ~2.5 higher than that measured at GOES East and we conduct independent analyses for these two locations. The 1 in 10, 1 in 50 and 1 in 100 year daily averaged E > 2 MeV electron fluxes at GOES West are 1.84x10^5, 5.00x10^5 and 7.68x10^5 cm^-2s^-1sr^-1 respectively. The corresponding fluxes at GOES East are 6.53x10^4, 1.98x10^5 and 3.25x10^5 cm^-2s^-1sr^-1 respectively. The largest fluxes seen during the 19.5 year period on 29 July 2004 were particularly extreme and were seen by satellites at GOES West and GOES East. The extreme value analysis suggests that this event was a 1 in 50 year event.
11:15	Space weather conditions during the Galaxy 15 spacecraft anomaly	Lotoaniu, P et al.	Invited Oral
	Paul T. M. Loto'aniu[1], H. J. Singer[1], J. V. Rodriguez[2,3],  J. Green[4], W. Denig, D. Biesecker[1], V. Angelopoulos
	[1] NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center; [2] University of Colorado Boulder; [3] National Geophysical Data Center; [4] Space Hazards Applications, Aerospace Corporation
	On 5 April 2010, the Galaxy 15 spacecraft, orbiting at geosynchronous altitudes, experienced an anomaly near local midnight when it stopped responding to any ground commands. The anomaly has been reported as due to a lockup of the field-programmable gate array within the spacecraft baseband communications unit during an onboard electrostatic discharge (ESD). This study evaluates the space weather conditions at the time of the Galaxy 15 anomaly. The study also compares the plasma and geomagnetic environments around the anomaly to space weather observations over the operational lifetime of Galaxy 15 up to the anomaly time. On 5 April, the Galaxy 15 spacecraft encountered severe plasma conditions while it was in eclipse and during the subsequent anomaly interval. These conditions included a massive magnetic field dipolarization that injected energetic particles from the magnetotail during a substorm observed by GOES and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms satellites. Galaxy 15 was located at a near-optimum position and local time to experience the full impact of the injected energetic particles. During the largest previous storm experienced by Galaxy 15 in December 2006, evidence suggests that it would not have been exposed to the same level of space weather as on 5 April 2010. Hence, while Galaxy 15 was traversing the nightside on 5 April, it likely experienced, for a short period, the most severe local plasma conditions it had encountered since launch. The most likely contributions to the ESD were interactions of the spacecraft with substorm-injected energetic particles facilitating spacecraft surface charging and deep dielectric charging.
11:30	Making Space Weather Forecasting Operational: MOSWOC and SKYNET 5 – Airbus DS	Haggarty, E et al.	Invited Oral
	Ewan Haggarty[1], Catherine Burnett[2]
	[1] SKYNET 5 – Airbus DS; [2] MOSWOC
	Spacecraft Operators have experienced for decades effects on their vehicles which have been shown to be Space Weather related. UK Governmental recognition of the Risk to SATCOM as a National Asset has caused the UK Met Office to step-up as the risk owner for Space Weather and become skilled forecasters. Like other Services Operators in the UK, SKYNET 5 has been appraising the potential impact of Extreme Space Weather to National Infrastructure. This session will review key challenges presented, how they have been appreciated, and what communications between Space Weather Forecasters and SKYNET 5 Operators have allowed evolution of Operational Responses and the real-time effective prosecution of mitigative actions.
11:45	Recent space weather measurements from medium Earth orbit and their engineering significance	Ryden, K et al.	Oral
	Keith Ryden, Alex Hands
	University of Surrey (Surrey Space Centre)
	Instrumentation on the Giove-A satellite medium Earth orbit (MEO) (23,300 km circular, 56º inclination) has now collected nearly 10 years of space weather and effects data in what is a very significant region for the deployment of critical infrastructure such as GPS and Galileo. A near continuous data set from December 2005 to April 2015 is now available. Measurements focus on environments and effects of engineering significance for spacecraft, namely internal charging/energetic electrons (0.5 to 3MeV); energetic (>40MeV) protons and ionizing dose at 3mm and 6mm Al depths. This paper will provide an overview of the measurement set and will illustrate some of the most significant features of the data. For example the accumulation of damaging ionising dose can be linked directly to space weather events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), fast solar wind streams from co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) and solar particle events (SPEs). An interesting feature is the period of intense quiet in the outer belt during 2009 when virtually no ionising dose was accumulated at all but this ended abruptly in early 2010 when a fast solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole causing a geomagnetic storm (Kp=7). The consequent energisation of the outer belt electrons lead to the maximum internal charging currents recorded so far in the mission (6th-8th April 2010) which persisted for several days. The event also caused a sudden spike of ionising dose which remain a large fraction of the total so far received even to this day. The end of this enhancement period was co-incident with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection which also caused another geomagnetic storm (Kp=6) which seemed to remove a large fraction of the energetic electrons. On these days the internal charging currents exceeded the ‘reasonable worst case’ current predications given by the DICTAT internal charging tool. Further illustrations including up to data will be provided.
12:00	The Global Positioning System constellation as a space weather monitor	Morley, S et al.	Oral
	Morley, Steven; Sullivan, John; Henderson, Michael
	Los Alamos National Laboratory
	The Global Positioning System satellites are distributed across six orbital planes and follow near-circular orbits, with a 12 hour period, at an altitude of approximately 20200 km. The six orbital planes are distributed around the Earth and are nominally inclined at 55 degrees. Energetic particle detectors have been flown on the GPS constellation for more than two decades; at the end of 2014 there were 19 GPS satellites equipped with energetic particle instrumentation. We will describe the physical and temporal coverage of the GPS constellation from the perspective of its use as a monitor for space weather. We will briefly introduce the energetic particle sensors, review some of the key scientific results enabled by these instruments and will present a comparison of the GPS data with measurements from the Van Allen Probes to demonstrate the quality and utility of these data.
12:15	Inner Radiation Zone and Slot Region Electron Fluxes: ECT/MagEIS Data	Fennell, J et al.	Invited Oral
	JF Fennell, S Claudepierre, P O’Brien, JB Blake, JH Clemmons
	The Aerospace Corp., Los Angeles, CA, USA
	The electron content of the inner radiation zone and slot region is seldom studied because of lack of good access and the serious background conditions there. The backgrounds created by the high-energy protons that exist in the inner radiation zone and extending into the lower parts of the slot region make it difficult to obtain good measurements of the electron fluxes. In addition, the backgrounds from penetrating Bremsstrahlung x-rays produced by energetic electrons striking the spacecraft can cause difficulty for electron flux measurements of the central and outer edge of the slot region. The Van Allen Probes traverse the slot and inner zone regions twice an orbit near the magnetic equator. The MagEIS electron sensors on the Probes were designed to meet this challenge and provide clean electron measurements over a wide range of energies (0.03 to ~4 MeV). New techniques have been used to remove the backgrounds and provide clean measurements in these regions. We find that deep in the inner zone the electrons fluxes at >800 keV are very low or non-existent while there are significant fluxes of electrons at lower energies, down to MagEIS limit of ~30 keV. The slot region fluxes have been similarly dominated by such lower energy electron fluxes thus far during the Van Allen Probes mission. The techniques used and the new electron flux results will be described and discussed in detail. The results will be compared to the AE9 v1.2 model and CRRES measurements in these regions.
12:30	Energetic Particle Measurements from the ICO-F2 Satellite	Blake, B	Invited Oral
	The ICO-F2 satellite was launched in June 2001. The satellite was to have been the first of a constellation of COMSATS. The satellite carried an energetic particle dosimeter provided by Aerospace. The ICO-F2 satellite had orbital parameters that covered the lower-altitude region below GEO and GPS that is traversed by a s/c transferring to a GEO orbit; the orbit was circular with an inclination of 45 degrees and an altitude of 10,390 km. The ICO measures total dose, and the electron and proton flux under five hemispherical shields ranging from 1 mm to 12 mm of aluminum. Measurements acquired over several years from the ICO dosimeter will be presented and compared with radiation models. Some observations during the ICO mission of interesting transient events such as energetic solar particle events and geomagnetic storms will be shown.
12:45	Small satellites: innovative options for gathering space environment information	Hesse, M et al.	Oral
	Michel Hesse [1], Christyl Johnson [1], Therese M. Jorgensen [2]
	[1] NASA, GSFC; [2] NSF
	Space environment information is critical for both basic research and for space weather monitoring and forecasting. For many scientific purposes and, in particular, for space weather-related applications, data continuity is of critical importance. While these needs have been recognized widely, budgetary constraints more often than not prohibit addressing them by traditional, larger mission-based means. Were it not for the emergence of smallsats, and, in particular, for the cubesat revolution, both basic research, which, after all is critical for advancing space weather capabilities, and environmental monitoring would be severely hamstrung. This presentation is intended to trigger discussion. It will begin with a brief overview of existing space environment monitoring applications of smallsats, and then suggest potential future applications, involving both single spacecraft missions and constellations.

Posters

Thursday November 26, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster area

1	Results of dose sensors measurements in a middle-Earth orbit	Protopopov, G et al.	p-Poster
	Vasily S. Anashin[1], Grigory A. Protopopov[1], Olga S. Kozyukova[1], Sergey V. Balashov[2], Ninel N. Sitnikova[2], Sergey V. Tasenko[3], Pavel V. Shatov[3]
	[1] Branch of JSC URSC-ISDE; [2] JSC ISS; [3] FSBI IAG
	The analysis of flight data is presented in the paper. The flight data have been receiving for more than 6 year from 42 dose sensors placed on 21 spacecrafts which operate in the circular orbit ~20000 km. The dose sensors operate on metal-nitride-oxide-semiconductor dosimetry pricniple. The flight data in 2014-2015 are discussed. Several abrupt dose rate increasing events are detected by the sensors. These events are analyzed with taking into account of charge particles fluxes (GOES system and Electro-L spacecraft) and other space weather characteristics. There is a good correlation between dose rate increasing and high-energy electron’s flux increasing. The analysis results are in agreement with calculations and will be presented in the full paper. Long-term effects of dose rate variation are discussed. An anomalous dose rate level was observed in the first half of 2014 which is comparable with one in 2009. The calculated and measured dose rate values are compared. Different space models (AE8, AE9, CRRESELE, Russian standard and others) and geometry models (semi-sphere, semi-infinite plate, 3D analysis) are used. The comparison result will be presented in the full paper.
2	CPIC: A Curvilinear Particle-In-Cell Code for Studying Spacecraft-Plasma Interactions	Meierbachtol, C et al.	p-Poster
	C.S. Meierbachtol, G.L. Delzanno, J.D. Moulton, L.J. Vernon, V.K. Jordanova
	Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
	We present the improved capabilities and performance of the electrostatic CPIC (Curvilinear Particle-In-Cell) code [1]. CPIC assumes an underlying structured, curvilinear, and hexahedral mesh, which is easily mapped to a uniform and Cartesian logical mesh. As a result, arbitrarily complex physical systems can be simulated while maintaining near-optimal computational performance. This is possible due to two main aspects of the code. First, Poisson’s equation is solved on the logical mesh via the Black Box Multigrid method [2]. Second, the particle mover employs a hybrid method, with the particle velocity being updated in physical space and position in logical space (the latter avoiding the need to track particles). This combination of multigrid field solve and hybrid particle mover results in nearly optimal scaling both in terms of mesh and particle dimensionality, as well as computing cores. Recent code improvements and features will be discussed, and validation results will be provided for standard plasma-physics test cases. This will include the charging of a sphere in a magnetized plasma. A sample mesh will also be generated for a complex, real-world spacecraft geometry, and corresponding charging and shielding simulation results will be presented. Finally, the computational performance of the code will be characterized for both dimensionality and parallel scaling. This research was conducted in support of the ConnEx mission, whose objective is to use a spacecraft electron beam to trace magnetic field lines in the Earth's upper atmosphere [3]. [1] G.L. Delzanno, E. Camporeale, J.D. Moulton, J.E. Borovsky, E.A. MacDonald, and M.F. Thomsen, "CPIC: A Curvilinear Particle-In-Cell Code for Plasma-Material Interaction Studies," IEEE Trans. Plas. Sci., 41 (12), 3577 (2013). [2] J.E. Dendy, "Black Box Multigrid," J. Comp. Phys. 48, 366 (1982). [3] J.E. Borovsky, D.J. McComas, M.F. Thomsen, J.L. Burch, J. Cravens, C.J. Pollock, T.E. Moore, and S.B. Mende, “Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Observatory (MIO): A multisatellite mission designed to solve the problem of what generates auroral arcs,” Eos. Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union 79 (45), F744 (2000).
3	Connecting space weather environment to space weather impacts: Efforts done at CCMC/SWRC	Zheng, Y et al.	p-Poster
	Yihua Zheng, Marlo Maddox, Michael Xapsos, Masha Kuznetsova, Antti Pulkkinen, and CCMC/SWRC team
	NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771
	Forecasting space weather environment is a challenge on its own. However, to make the information useful to spacecraft operations and spacecraft anomaly analysis, it is crucial to connect the environment to the actual impacts. In this presentation, we will discuss our efforts at CCMC/SWRC in coupling space weather environment observations/models to engineering models to quantify effects on spacecraft components/electronics. In addition, by working with people involved in spacecraft operations and their log of ‘special’ events, we are working on extracting environment - impact rules that can be applied to future missions.
4	CCMC and SWRC space weather forecasting services for NASA robotic mission operators	Pulkkinen, A et al.	p-Poster
	A. Pulkkinen, the CCMC/SWRC team
	NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
	Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) located at NASA GSFC has been one of the core US space weather activities for more than a decade. While the primary CCMC goals are to facilitate community space weather research and usage of state-of-the-art models as well as research to operations (and operations to research) activities, the more recent Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) activity linked to CCMC is dedicated for providing space weather services for NASA's robotic mission operators. SWRC together with JSC Space Radiation Analysis Group are NASA's space weather services providers for robotic and human exploration, respectively. In this paper we will review the latest CCMC and SWRC forecasting services that allow addressing NASA's spacecraft operators' needs. The new forecasting tools include space weather databases such as Scoreboard, DONKI (Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information) and novel forecasting capacity such as ensemble CME and flare prediction systems that have been implemented at CCMC. We will also discuss our work on developing future forecasting capacity that includes higher level of tailoring of services for individual NASA missions.
5	Recreating the high-energy electron environment throughout the Earth’s radiation belts	Glauert, S et al.	p-Poster
	Sarah A. Glauert, Richard B. Horne, Nigel P. Meredith
	British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
	Energetic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts are responsible for internal charging on satellites. Since the high energy (E > ~500 keV) electron flux in the radiation belts is highly dynamic and has been observed to change by orders of magnitude within a few hours it is important to understand and quantify these changes. Long term data sets of these fluxes exist at geostationary orbit but there is much less data available for other orbits; in particular for medium Earth orbits that pass through the peak fluxes in the heart of the radiation belts. The British Antarctic Survey Radiation Belt Model (BAS-RBM) is a dynamic model that simulates the high energy electron population of the radiation belts and includes the effects of transport of electrons toward or away from the Earth, collisions between the electrons and the atmosphere and interactions between the electrons and the electromagnetic waves present in space. As part of the EU-FP7 SPACESTORM project, the model is being used to recreate the state of the radiation belts from about 6000 km altitude to geostationary orbit for about the last 20 years. Available satellite data (e.g. from POES and GOES) provides boundary conditions for the simulation and the model calculates the flux throughout the radiation belt. The simulation provides an energy spectrum which enables the charging environment to be investigated. This will be illustrated by showing the conditions that would have been encountered by a typical Galileo satellite and by a satellite using electric orbit raising to reach geostationary orbit.
6	Testing Assumptions Underlying Radiation Belt Models	Green, J et al.	p-Poster
	J. Green, T.P. O'Brien, T. Mulligan-Skov, J.Roeder, S. Claudpierre, B. Kwan
	Space Hazards Applications, Aerospace Corporation
	Most models of Earth’s radiation belts rely on a common assumption that has not been validated. Our goal is to test this assumption and determine whether a new modeling paradigm is necessary for reliable predictions. Near Earth space is filled with intense particle radiation that poses a threat to the fleet of orbiting satellites. Physics based models have been developed that can predict the radiation environment and, in particular, large enhancements in an effort to mitigate that threat. These models assume that changes in the radial profile of the radiation can be described as a random diffusive process. The assumption drastically simplifies the computational challenge of modeling the belts and eliminates the need to track interactions with individual particles. However, this assumption has not been tested. Here we use data from the GOES satellites to test whether impulsive injections and ULF wave oscillations are frequent enough to describe the radiation environment using the diffusion approximation.
7	Extension of the SEPEM System to Treat Solar Heavy Ions and Shielded Environments	Truscott, P et al.	p-Poster
	Pete Truscott[1], Daniel Heynderickx[2], Fan Lei[3], Athina Varotsou[4], Anne Samaras[4],  Piers Jiggens[5], Hugh Evans[5]
	[1] Kallisto Consultancy; [2] DH Consultancy; [3] RadMod Research; [4] TRAD; [5] ESA/ESTEC
	Solar energetic particle (SEP) events present an important threat to the operation of spacecraft, human spaceflight, and also an increasing concern to aviation safety from the perspective of flight control and radiobiological effects. The Solar Energetic Particle Environment Model (SEPEM) has been developed by ESA to allow users to build solar particle event models using reference datasets, execute these models to predict particle environments, and analyse the effects of shielding on energy/LET spectra and single event effects (SEE) rates in microelectronics. Thus far the focus of the work has been in the proton SEP environment and its effects for interplanetary space. Under the ESA ESHIEM Project, the data and models have been extended significantly to treat heavy ions both outside of the magnetosphere and also for Earth-orbiting environments down to LEO. SEPEM-ESHIEM offers several advantages over currently-established models for the SEP environment, including for instance the ability to create statistical models for total ionising dose and SEU rates (not just flux or fluence) due to ions from Z=1 to Z=92, after propagating through multi-layered slab or spherical shields. This paper reviews the changes which have been undertaken to the SEPEM system in order to simulate heavier ions, and describes the basis and validation of the newly implemented physical and magnetospheric shielding models. An explanation is given of the different modes of operation of the web-based environment to obtain outputs relevant to the spacecraft radiation hardness assurance.
8	LYRA detections of Aurora events	Katsiyannis, T et al.	p-Poster
	A. C. Katsiyannis[1,2], M. Dominique[1], J. De Keyser[3], M.  Kruglanski[3], E. DeDonder[3], A. Ben Moussa[1], D. Berghmans[1]
	[1] Royal Observatory of Belgium, Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence; [2] National Observatory of Athens; [3] Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy
	The Large Yield RAdiometer (LYRA) is an ultraviolet irradiance radiometer on-board ESA's PROBA2 micro-satellite. Since its launch in 2009 it observes the Sun in four different passbands, chosen for their relevance to solar physics, aeronomy and space weather. Flying on an altitude of 735km, LYRA proved to be an excellent flare monitor and is involved in the analysis of the atmospheric composition of the Earth. One of the most peculiar and intriguing results of LYRA is the detection of short, strong, bursts that do not directly correlate with solar coronal events, but with high K$_{p}$ index on Earth's surface. As LYRA has the ability to observe in four different UV bandpasses, the comparison between the filters that allow the detection of this activity versus those that do not, reveals very interesting results as to the nature of those detections.
9	The development of algorithms for space weather data measured by GK-2A	Lee, J et al.	p-Poster
	Jaejin Lee[1], Kyung-Chan Kim[1], Seonghwan Choi[1], Roksoon Kim[1], Bon-Jun Ku[3], Cheol-Oh Jeong[3], Hyesook Lee[4]
	[1] Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute; [2] University of Science and Technology; [3] Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute; [4] Korea Meteorological Administration
	KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration) will provide publicly space weather data measured by KSEM (Korea Space Environment Monitor) aboard GEO meteorological satellite that will be launched in 2018. The KSEM consists of three instruments that are Particle Detector (PD), Magnetometer (MG), and Spacecraft Charging Monitor (SC). These instruments will be operated 24 hours on the geosynchronous orbit to protect national space assets from severe space environments. In order to provide useful data to space weather forecasters and scientists, the KSEM data will be processed in the GK-2A ground station. To generate level-2 data from level-1 KSEM data, five algorithms are under development by KASI (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute). From these algorithms, global electron flux is generated from in-situ measurement data and displayed to three-dimensional magnetospheric maps. In addition, one-day preceding electron flux and the degree of spacecraft internal charging are calculated on GEO satellite orbits. For the purpose of space weather forecast, Kp and Dst index are derived from KSEM and solar wind data. In this presentation, we describe the specification and configuration of the algorithms.
10	Observation of ducted VLF signal propagation and validation of electron density measurements based on signal inversion	Koronczay, D et al.	e-Poster
	Lilla Juhász[1], Dávid Koronczay[2,1], János Lichtenberger[1,2], Csaba Ferencz[1]
	[1] Department of Geophysics and Space Sciences, Eötvös University, Budapest, Hungary; [2] Geodetic and Geophysical Institute, RCAES, Sopron, Hungary
	We analyzed VLF measurements from the AWDANet automatic whistler detector and analysis network and also from spacecraft, specially from the Van Allen Probes. Using both ground based data and spacecraft onboard multi-axis EM measurements of both artificial VLF signals and naturally occuring whistlers, we observed the ducted propagation of such signals. Using inversion methods and assuming electron density distribution models along the propagation path, we obtain electron density values that we compare to in-situ density measurements, thereby validating the aforementioned models and the inversion procedure.