Session - Solar Energetic Particles: Data, Environments, Forecasting and Impact

P. Jiggens, D. Heynderickx, M. Marsh, M. Dierckxsens

The Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) environment is a critical component of specifications for spacecraft design and operations as a result of its impact on electronic components and materials, and is also a concern for human space flight and aviation due to increased radiation risks. There is increasing international momentum in the development of forecasting and alert systems for SEP events and deriving their characteristics on both short and long term basis. The outputs of these tools and research are intended for assimilation within civil aviation, human space flight, and satellite operations. However, it is not always clearly understood by the space weather community what parameters from space weather research/forecasts are desired by the end user concerned with the radiation impacts of SEPs, and their procedural impact on human spaceflight, aviation, satellite and other industrial operations.

This session invites contributions with a view to connecting the "beginning and end" aspects of SEP related space weather research and forecasts and their real world impact:

- Calibration, background subtraction, correction and comparisons radiation particle data;
- Research into the long-term SEP environment including interplanetary environments;
- Forecast SEP events over a range of timescales;
- Propagation through magnetospheres, spacecraft and biological shielding;
- Impacts of solar particle events on human activities, instruments, components, solar arrays technology and other physical effects.

A strong focus of the session shall be placed on information which can be provided and understood by the end user (be the spacecraft designers, spacecraft operators, the aviation industry or human space flight mission controllers) in order to satisfy their needs.

Talks
Friday November 27, 11:00 - 13:00, Delvaux

Poster Viewing
Friday November 27, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster area

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Talks : Time schedule

Friday November 27, 11:00 - 13:00, Delvaux

11:00	Solar Particle Events in Solar Cycle 24 - an Aviation Perspective	Hands, A et al.	Oral
	Alex Hands, Keith Ryden
	University of Surrey
	Solar cycle 24 has, thus far, been relatively quiet in terms of solar energetic particle events (SEPEs). Only 34 events of sufficient intensity to register on the NOAA S-scale have been recorded to date, whereas in the previous two solar cycles the total figures were 75 and 93 respectively. Of greater significance to aviation is the relative absence of the intense hard-spectrum events that lead to ground level enhancements (GLEs). Of these there has only been one in the current solar cycle, compared to 15 and 16 in the previous two. In spite of this quiescence, some progress has been made in raising the profile of the threat to aviation from space weather. In 2012 extreme space weather was added to the UK’s national risk register of civil emergencies, including the various risks to aviation. The following year the Royal Academy of Engineering produced a comprehensive report detailing the effects of extreme space weather on engineered systems and infrastructure, again with aviation included as a key component. Other groups/organisations that have made progress in this area include EASA, EURADOS, Euratom and the IEC. In this paper we present observational data for the more prominent events from this solar cycle, including space-based measurements of proton fluxes and LET spectra, ground level neutron monitor data and, most importantly, in-flight data. These measurements demonstrate that the relationship between space-borne data at relatively low energies, and the atmospheric radiation environment relevant to aviation, is non-linear and plenty of scope exists for mistakes in extrapolation, potentially leading to false alarms and unnecessary and costly mitigation actions. We advocate the need for a widespread programme of in situ monitoring of the aviation radiation environment, across a range of latitudes and altitudes, in order to maximise the probability of measuring future SEPEs, improve our ability to now-cast the hazard from radiation and establish reliable global data services to stakeholders.
11:17	Korean Radiation Exposure Assessment Model for aviation route dose (KREAM)	Hwang, J et al.	Oral
	Junga Hwang[1,3], Kyunghwan Dokgo[2], Eunjin Choi[2], Sung-Jun Noh[1,5] and Kyung-Suk Cho[1,3]
	[1] Solar and Space Weather group, Korea Astronomy and Space science Institute (KASI), Daejeon 305-348, South Korea; [2] Department of Physics, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon 305-701, South Korea; [3] Department of Astronomy and Space Science, University of Science and Technology (UST), Daejeon, South Korea; [4] Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Chungnam National University (CNU), Daejeon, South Korea; [5] Chungbuk National University (CBNU), South Korea
	Since Korean Air has begun to use the polar route from Seoul/ICN airport to New York/JFK airport on August 2006, there are explosive needs for the estimation and prediction against cosmic radiation exposure for Korean aircrew and passengers in South Korea from public. To keep pace with such needs from the public, Korean government made the law on safety standards and managements of cosmic radiation for the flight attendants and the pilots in 2013. And we have begun to develop our own Korean Radiation Exposure Assessment Model (KREAM) for aviation route dose since last year funded by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). GEANT4 model and NRLMSIS 00 model are used for calculation of the energetic particles’ transport in the atmosphere and for obtaining the background atmospheric neutral densities depending on altitude. For prediction the radiation exposure in many routes depending on the various space weather effects, we constructed a database from pre-arranged simulations using all possible combinations of R, S, and G, which are the space weather effect scales provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). To get the solar energetic particles’ spectrum at the 100 km altitude which we set as a top of the atmospheric layers in the KREAM, we use ACE and GOES satellites’ proton flux observations. We compare the results between KREAM and the other cosmic radiation estimation programs such as CARI-6M which is provided by the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA). We also validate KREAM’s results by comparison with the measurement from Liulin-6K LET spectrometer onboard Korean commercial flights and Korean Air Force reconnaissance flights.
11:34	Solar proton fluence model based on ground level enhancement event observations	Raukunen, O et al.	Oral
	Osku Raukunen, Rami Vainio,Anna Vuori
	University of Turku
	Ground level enhancement (GLE) events are the most energetic class of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and they constitute the most serious radiation hazard for space missions. We have developed a probabilistic fluence model for solar energetic protons based on neutron monitor and spacecraft observations of ground level enhancement events (GLEs). We studied the proton integral rigidity spectra of GLE events fitted with broken power-law functions (Band et al., 1993, ApJ 413; Tylka and Dietrich, 2009, Proc. 31st. Internat. Cosmic Ray Conf., 273) and found that the fit parameters can be modeled with two independent and two dependent normally distributed random variables. We combined closely occurring GLE events into GLE episodes and modeled the number of events per episode with a geometric distribution. We determined the occurrence rate of the GLE episodes over a standardized solar cycle and found that it can be modeled with Poisson statistics. We then constructed a proton fluence model that can be used to analyze both worst-case-event and mission integrated proton fluence spectra.
11:51	New updates to SEPEM/SOLPENCO2	Aran, A et al.	Oral
	Angels Aran[1], Piers Jiggens[2], Daniel Pacheco[1], Neus Agueda[1] and Blai Sanahuja[1]
	[1] Dep. d'Astronomia i Meteorologia, Institut de Ciències del Cosmos, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain; [2] European Space Research and Technology Centre, ESA, The Netherlands
	The SOLPENCO2 tool was developed during the ESA’s solar energetic particle (SEP) Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project (http://dev.sepem.oma.be). This tool provides the SEPEM statistical analysis tools for interplanetary missions with heliocentric radial distance scaling parameters. Six reference cases were modelled for which SOLPENCO2 produced synthetic intensity-time profiles of 5 — 200 MeV protons for seven virtual observers, located at radial positions between 0.2 and 1.6 AU in the ecliptic plane. Using these six reference cases, the 135 events (from 1988 to 2006) in the SEPEM event list were classified into six categories in order to assign them the corresponding radial distance dependencies for either the peak intensity and the event-fluence. SOLPENCO2 does not provide the synthetic flux profiles after the shock crossing by the observer; therefore, to compute the event-fluence an assumption was made to estimate the post-shock (i.e. downstream) fluence. We kept the total-to-downstream fluence ratio, obtained from the calibration of the synthetic profiles with 1 AU data, constant with the radial distance. We present here the updates to the SOLPENCO2 tool produced in the frame of a new ESA activity. [1] We have enlarged the number of events in the SEPEM radial dependent event list by analyzing the SEP events occurring during the period from 2007 to June 2013. [2] We have increased the number of reference cases modelled with SOLPENCO2 tool and [3] we have studied the variation of the downstream fluence of SEP events with respect to the position of the observer (both radial distance and longitude) with respect to the site of the solar eruption originating the SEP event, in order to revisit the assumption made in SOLPENCO2. In order to achieve this, we have used data from several spacecraft including Helios and STEREO. The expansion of the underlying event list and elements of the downstream analysis are detailed in the poster contribution by Pacheco et al. This presentation focusses on the new events modelled with SOLPENCO2 and the final assumptions made in the evaluation of the downstream fluence.
12:08	‘HESPERIA’ HORIZON 2020 project: High Energy Solar Particle Events Forecasting and Analysis	Malandraki, O et al.	Oral
	Malandraki, O.E. for the HESPERIA Consortium[1]
	[1] Project Coordinator, IAASARS, National Observatory of Athens, GR-15236, Penteli, Greece
	Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are of prime astrophysical interest, but are also a space weather hazard motivating the development of predictive capabilities. The HORIZON 2020 project ‘HESPERIA’ will produce two novel SEP operational forecasting tools based upon proven concepts (UMASEP, REleASE). At the same time it will advance our understanding of the physical mechanisms that result into high-energy SEP events through the systematic exploitation of the high-energy gamma-ray observations of the FERMI mission and other novel datasets (PAMELA; AMS), together with in situ SEP measurements near 1 AU. The project will address through multi-frequency observations and simulations the chain of processes from particle acceleration in the corona, particle transport in the magnetically complex corona and interplanetary space to the detection near 1 AU. Furthermore, HESPERIA will explore the possibility to incorporate the derived results into future innovative space weather services. Publicly available software to invert neutron monitor observations of relativistic SEPs to physical parameters that can be compared with the space-borne measurements at lower energies will be provided for the first time. In order to achieve these goals HESPERIA will exploit already available large datasets stored into databases such as the neutron monitor database (NMDB) and SEPServer that have been developed under FP7 projects from 2008 to 2013. The structure of the HESPERIA project, its main objectives and forecasting operational tools, as well as the added value to the SEP research will be presented and discussed. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324.
12:25	The Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) Tool	Anastasiadis, A et al.	Oral
	Anastasios Anastasiadis[1], Ingmar Sandberg[1], Athanasios Papaioannou[1],  Manolis Georgoulis[2], Kostas Tziotziou[1], Georgia Tsiropoula[1], Dimitrios Paronis[1], Piers Jiggens[3], Alain Hilgers[3]
	[1] IAASARS, National Observatory of Athens, Greece; [2] RCAAM, Academy of Athens, Greece; [3] ESTEC, ESA, The Netherlands
	Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events related to intense eruptive events on the Sun such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), pose a significant threat for both personnel and infrastructure in stormy space-weather conditions. Of particular concern is the high rate of single event effects on-board spacecraft launchers which can be brought about by large increases in the radiation environment as a result of such solar activity. A new web-based service for the prediction of solar eruptive and energetic particle events is presented. FORSPEF (Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares) is designed to perform forecasts and nowcasts of the occurrence and the characteristics of solar flares and SEP events. The service was initially targeted at launch operators but is of interest to the broader space-weather community. The prediction of solar flares relies on a morphological method which is based on the sophisticated derivation of the effective connected magnetic field strength (Beff) of potentially flaring active-region (AR) magnetic configurations and it utilizes analysis of a large number of AR magnetograms. For the prediction of SEP events a new reductive statistical method has been implemented based on a newly constructed database of solar flares, CMEs and SEP events that covers a long time span from 1984-2013. The method is based on flare location (longitude), flare size (maximum soft X-ray intensity), and the occurrence (or not) of a CME. Warnings are issued for all > C1.0 soft X-ray flares. The warning time in the forecasting scheme extends to 24 hours with a refresh rate of 3 hours while the respective warning time for the nowcasting scheme depends on the availability of the near real-time data and falls between 15-20 minutes. The system is capable of predicting the likelihood of SEP event occurrence, as well as the timing of the peak, duration of the event, and peak flux and fluence at a range of energies. We discuss the modules of the FORSPEF system, their interconnection and the operational set up. The dual approach in the development of FORPSEF (i.e. forecasting and nowcasting scheme) permits the refinement of predictions upon the availability of new data that characterize changes on the Sun and the interplanetary space, while the combined usage of solar flare and SEP forecasting methods upgrades FORSPEF to an integrated forecasting solution. This work has been funded through the “FORSPEF: FORecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares”, ESAContract No. 4000109641/13/NL/AK
12:42	Approaches to forecasting radiation risk from Solar Energetic Particles	Dalla, S et al.	Oral
	Silvia Dalla[1], Mike S. Marsh[2] and T. Laitinen[1]
	[1] University of Central Lancashire, UK; [2] MetOffice, UK
	In recent years, a lot of effort has been devoted to improving models of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) that aim to forecast SEP intensities measured near Earth, following the observation of a flare/CME event at the Sun. For Space Weather applications, the parameter that is most relevant is the absorbed dose, or, for human effects, the effective dose. The latter quantities depend on the time evolution of the intensity as well as on the energy spectrum of an event, therefore requiring knowledge of these SEP properties to be calculated accurately. In this presentation we discuss approaches that may be used to translate the output from SEP simulations into radiation impact at the top of Earth's atmosphere. We discuss how a radiation forecasting component may be included within the framework of the SPARX SEP modelling system, and of standard focussed transport approaches.

Posters

Friday November 27, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster area

1	Construction of a long term interplanetary He dataset in the framework of the ESA ESHIEM project	Heynderickx, D et al.	e-Poster
	Daniel Heynderickx[1], Ingmar Sandberg[2], Pete Truscott[3], Piers Jiggens[4], Alain Hilgers[4]
	[1] DH Consultancy BVBA, Leuven, Belgium; [2] NKUA, Athens, Greece; [3] Kallisto Consultancy, Farnborough, UK; [4] ESA/ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands
	During the ESA SEPEM project, a long term (1973-2013) cross-calibrated interplanetary proton dataset was constructed using data from the IMP8/GME instrument and the EPS instruments on a series of GOES spacecraft. In the follow-on ESHIEM project, a similar effort has now produced a long term He dataset. GOES/SEM/EPS He data from 1974 to present were processed to remove data spikes and fill data gaps. IMP8/GME He data were also despiked, and data points affected by saturation or dead time effects were removed. The GME data were used to re-define the SEM/EPS energy bins for the various GOES spacecraft, applying a technique developed in the ESA SEPCALIB project. As a result, a consistent and contiguous GOES He dataset spanning more than 40 years has been produced and is now the primary data source for further analysis for deriving SEP models for He and heavier ions which can be particularly important for deriving single event effect rates in components and effects on humans in space.
2	Operational Space Weather Prediction System providing forecasts and alerts on solar flares and SEP events (SEPsFLAREs)	García-rigo, A et al.	p-Poster
	A. García-Rigo[1], M. Núñez[2], R. Qahwaji[3], O. Ashamari[3], P. Jiggens[4], G. Pérez[1], M. Hernández-Pajares[1], A. Hilgers[4]
	[1] Ionospheric determination & Navigation based on Satellite & Terrestrial systems research group, Technical University of Catalonia (UPC-IonSAT); [2] Space Weather Group, University of Malaga (UMA); [3] Space Weather Research Group, Bradford University (UoB); [4] ESA Space Environments & Effects section (TEC-EES), ESA-ESTEC
	A web-based prototype system for predicting Solar Flares and Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events for its use by space launcher operators or any interested user has been implemented. The main goal of this system, called SEPsFLAREs, is to provide warnings/predictions with forecast horizons from 48 hours before to a few hours before to the SEP peak flux, and duration predictions. The module responsible for predicting solar flares, the SF_PMod, is based on the well-known ASAP flare predictor [T. Colak & R. Qahwaji, Automated solar activity prediction: A hybrid computer platform using machine learning and solar imaging for automated prediction of solar flares, Space Weather, 7 (S06001), 2009], which learns rules by using machine learning techniques on SDO/SOHO solar images to automatically detect sunspots, classify them based on the McIntosh classification system, and predict C-, M-, and X-class flares with forecast horizon from 6 h to 48 h. Regarding the performance of the flare predictor, the 24-hour forecast horizon was found to provide the best performance: the Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR) and True Skill Statistics estimations were 63.8%, 99.0% and 0.5 respectively for predicting X-class flares; and 88.7%, 87.0% and 0.59 respectively, for predicting M-class flares. The module responsible for predicting the SEP onset and occurrence, the SEP_OO_PMod, is based on the well-known UMASEP predictor [M. Núñez, Predicting solar energetic proton events (E > 10 MeV), Space Weather, 9 (S07003), 2011], which performs X-ray and proton flux correlations to find the first symptoms of future well- and poorly-connected SEP events. The SEP_OO_PMod also provides a Warning Tool which is able to warn about potential proton enhancements (including SEP events) from flare predictions. Regarding the performance of the SEP_OO_PMod, it was validated taking into account all 129 SEP events from January 1994 to June 2014 and obtained a POD of 86.82%, a FAR of 25.83%, and an Average Warning Time (AWT) of 3.93 h. Regarding the evaluation of the Warning Tool, the best performance, obtained with a set of user-defined parameters, were a POD of 58.3%, FAR of 90.1%, and AWT of 23.1 h. The module responsible for predicting SEP peak and duration, the SEP_FID_PMod, identifies the parent solar flare associated to an observed/predicted SEP, simulates the radial propagation of the predicted shock on a representative IMF structure (i.e. a static Parker Spiral), and predicts the SEP peak and duration. The SEP_FID_PMod, validated taking into account all 129 SEP events from January 1994 to June 2014, obtained a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of SEP peak time predictions of 11.3 h, a MAE of peak intensity predictions of 0.53 in log10 units of pfu, and a MAE of SEP end time predictions of 28.8 h. The SEPsFLAREs system also acquires data for solar flares nowcasting (including GSFLAD proxy and SISTED detector from MONITOR’s ESA-funded project; [Hernández-Pajares, M., A. García-Rigo, J.M. Juan, J. Sanz, E. Monte and A. Aragón-Ángel (2012), GNSS measurement of EUV photons flux rate during strong and mid solar flares. Space Weather, Volume 10, Issue 12, doi:10.1029/2012SW000826] and [García-Rigo, A. (2012), Contributions to ionospheric determination with Global Positioning System: solar flare detection and prediction of global maps of Total Electron Content, Ph.D. dissertation. Doctoral Program in Aerospace Science & Technology, Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain]).
3	Measuring Solar particle events at Mars	Köhler, J et al.	p-Poster
	Jan Köhler
	University of Kiel
	The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD), on board the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover Curiosity, measures the energetic charged and neutral particles and the radiation dose rate on the surface of Mars. We use the measured proton spectra on the surface of Mars, to calculate proton fluxes above the Martian atmosphere for the four solar particle events which have been observed by RAD. One common method to calculate the transport of protons through the Martian atmosphere is the Planetocosmics toolkit. Because this method allows only time consuming forward calculation, we create a large set of Planetcosmics simulations, the results of which are then used as input for a maximum likelihood estimation which calculates the proton fluxes on top of the Martian atmosphere from proton spectra measured by RAD. We use the RAD surface measurements to calculate the proton fluxes above the Martian atmosphere in the energy range of 200-400 MeV.
4	A model upgrade for short-term warnings of solar energetic proton events	Laurenza, M et al.	p-Poster
	Monica Laurenza[1], Giuseppe Pallocchia[1], Tommaso Alberti[2], Giuseppe Consolini[1], Maria Federica Marcucci[1], Fabio Lepreti[2]
	[1] IAPS/INAF, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Roma, Italy; [2] Dipartimento di Fisica, Università della Calabria, Ponte P. Bucci 31C, 87036 Rende (CS), Italy
	A model to provide short-term warnings of solar energetic proton (SEP) events that meet or exceed the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC/NOAA, USA) threshold (> 10 MeV proton flux greater than 10 pfu) was developed by Laurenza et al., 2009*, by using data collected for the period 1995-2005. The method was based on several solar activity parameters, i.e., flare location, soft X-ray fluence, type III radio fluence. The same parameters have been computed for the SEP events occurred from 2006 to 2014 to test on an independent data set the reliability of the results obtained for warnings issued 10 minutes after the maximum of each soft X-ray flare of class ≥ M2. In addition, the possibility to provide the SEP event peak flux is investigated, in order to characterize the radiation storm level with a good accuracy. *Laurenza, E. W. Cliver, J. Hewitt, M. Storini, A. G. Ling, C. C. Balch, M. L. Kaiser (2009), Space Weather, 7, S04008, doi:10.1029/2007SW000379. This research work is partly supported by the Italian MIUR-PRIN grant 2012P2HRCR on The active Sun and its effects on Space and Earth climate
5	1.0-1.6 AU heliocentric distance analysis of peak intensities and fluences in modelled SEP events	Aran, A et al.	p-Poster
	Angels Aran[1], Blai Sanahuja[1], Daniel Heynderickx[2], Piers Jiggens[3], Fan Lei[4], Pete Truscott[5] and Rami Vainio[6]
	[1] Dep. d'Astronomia i Meteorologia, Institut de Ciències del Cosmos, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain. [2] DH Consultancy, Belgium. [3] European Space Research and Technology Centre, The Netherlands. [4] RadModResearch, U.K. [5] KallistoConsultancyLtd, U.K. [6] Space Research Laboratory, Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku, Finland
	In the ESA’s Interplanetary and Planetary Radiation Model for Human Spaceflight (IPRAM) project, a radiation environment specification model was constructed and applied for virtual missions to an asteroid and to Mars. The solar energetic particle (SEP) statistical tools developed during the ESA’s SEP Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project (http://dev.sepem.oma.be) were used and extended to include protons up to 1 GeV. SEPEM enables the performance of statistical analysis of the proton environment encountered during virtual spacecraft missions with heliocentric distance range between 0.2 AU and 1.6 AU. This analysis uses an event list of 204 SEP events (in the period from 1988 to 2006) for which distance scaling parameters were derived. The heliocentric radial distance scaling parameters were obtained from six reference cases modelled with the SEPEM/SOLPENCO2 code that provides synthetic events, calibrated with 1 AU data, for seven virtual observers located at different radial positions from the Sun. Radial dependences were derived by fitting a power-law from 0.2 to 1.6 AU to the synthetic peak intensities and event-fluences. In this work, we have revised this assumption in order to better represent the radial distance range between 1.0 and 1.6 AU, covered by the asteroid and Mars missions, and the high-energy spectra. We discuss the radial dependences obtained for the six SEPEM reference events in order to better consider factors such as the weakening (and even the inefficiency) of the travelling shock at accelerating and injecting high-energy particles into the interplanetary space as it travels beyond 1 AU, as well as, the particle transport processes, particularly at high energies where most of the particle population is injected close to the Sun. To take into account these factors we have fit a power law to the peak intensities and fluences from 1.0 AU to 1.6 AU and recommend these new dependences or those used in SEPEM for the IPRAM analysis.
6	Pre-processing methods for energetic particle measurements	Papadimitriou, C et al.	p-Poster
	Christos Katsavrias[1,2], Constantinos Papadimitriou[1,2], Ingmar Sandberg[1,2] Ioannis A. Daglis[2,1] Piers Jiggens[3]
	[1] Institute of Accelerating Systems and Applications, Athens, Greece; [2] Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; [3] European Research and Technology Centre, European Space Agency, Noordwijk, The Netherlands
	One of the most important aspects in the development and evaluation of radiation environment models is the quality of the measurements. Such models usually incorporate data from different instruments on board satellites from various missions that may present caveats, such as spikes, discontinuities, saturation issues or increased background levels. Thus, before such an endeavor can be undertaken, the data must be carefully pre-processed and evaluated. In this work, we launch a comparative study using several data cleaning methods on energetic flux data. We demonstrate our results, using a large number of different measurements from ESA radiation monitors and RBSP twin mission. The ultimate goal of this effort is to create a semi-automated method to flag datasets. Acknowledgements: This work is performed in the framework of the Hellenic Evolution of Radiation data processing and Modeling of the Environment in Space (HERMES) project, implemented by IASA under ESA contract no. 4000112863/14/NL/HB.
7	Data Unfolding using Neural Networks	Papadimitriou, C et al.	p-Poster
	Constantinos Papadimitriou[1,2], Sigiava Aminalragia Giamini[1,2], Ingmar Sandberg[1,2] Ioannis A. Daglis[2,1] Piers Jiggens[3]
	[1] Institute of Accelerating Systems and Applications, Athens, Greece; [2] Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; [3] European Research and Technology Centre, European Space Agency, Noordwijk,  The Netherlands
	In this work we demonstrate a new approach for the inverse problem of unfolding energetic particle measurement based on the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). We have used data from ESA Standard Radiation Environment Monitor (SREM). SREM detects high-energy electrons and protons and bins the measurements in fifteen counters of overlapping energy bands that are characterized by strong contamination. AAN are information processing systems, inspired by biological neural networks, that are used to estimate functions that can depend on a large number of inputs and are generally unknown. ANNs have been employed in various and seemingly disparate fields and in the course of the last decades they have repeatedly proven their usefulness. In this study, we use radial basis function ANNs to unfold proton and electron flux measurements of SREM units on-board INTEGRAL and GIOVEB satellites. The obtained results are evaluated successfully through extensive comparisons with SREM fluxes derived with the Singular Value Decomposition method as well as against NOAA GOES/EPS proton fluxes. Acknowledgements: This work is performed in the framework of the Hellenic Evolution of Radiation data processing and Modeling of the Environment in Space (HERMES) project, implemented by IASA under ESA contract no. 4000112863/14/NL/HB.
8	Development of a Nowcasting Model for Radiation Exposure at Flight Altitudes Caused by Cosmic Radiation during Solar Storms	Thommesen, H et al.	p-Poster
	Harald Thommesen[1], Marcin Latocha[1], Rolf Bütikofer[2], Peter Beck[1]
	[1] Seibersdorf Laboratories, Forschungszentrum Seibersdorf, 2444 Seibersdorf, Austria; [2] International Foundation High Altitude Research Stations Jungfraujoch and Gornergrat, Sidlerstraße 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
	The Earth is constantly bombarded by high-energetic particles, which penetrate our atmosphere. They belong to the cosmic radiation and can be further classified according to their origin in a galactic and a solar component. When these particles hit the atmosphere, a multitude of particle interactions with the nuclei of the atmospheric molecules take place. The result is the secondary cosmic radiation, which can, depending on its intensity, pose a threat to passengers and most of all to the crew on aircrafts. The intensity of the secondary cosmic radiation depends heavily on four key aspects. First of all, the radiation exposure varies strongly with the flight altitude, which corresponds to the atmospheric depth. Secondly, the radiation exposure is coupled to the galactic cosmic radiation flux, which anti-correlates with the solar activity. Thirdly, the magnetic field has a latitude-dependent shielding effect, thereby reducing the radiation hazard in equatorial regions. To the fourth aspect belong the sporadically occurring solar proton events, which may temporarily lead to dramatic increases of the radiation exposure above its usual level. Very energetic solar proton events may be observed by ground-based neutron monitors. Based on the data of the worldwide neutron monitor network, it is possible to assess the characteristics of the solar cosmic radiation in the vicinity of Earth and thereby its impact on the radiation exposure in the atmosphere. A master thesis was performed at the Graz University of Technology in cooperation with Seibersdorf Laboratories. It describes the development of a GEANT4-based simulation model that considers all the above mentioned aspects and assesses the level of radiation exposure in the form of dosimetric quantities. Of particular importance is the ability for a real-time assessment of these quantities, which makes the speed of the model a crucial point. Additionally, the thesis presents simulation results produced by this model that illustrate the magnitude and also the global distribution of radiation doses that arise from galactic and solar cosmic radiation. Lastly, the model was used to estimate the ambient dose equivalent as well as the effective dose on long-distance flights during a solar energetic event.
9	Validation of Korean Radiation Exposure Assessment Model for aviation route dose (KREAM)	Noh, S et al.	p-Poster
	Sung-Jun Noh[1,2], Junga Hwang[2,3], Kyunghwan Dokgo[1,4] and Kyung-Suk Cho[2,3]
	[1] Chungbuk National University (CBNU), South Korea; [2] Solar and Space Weather group, Korea Astronomy and Space science Institute (KASI), Daejeon 305-348, South Korea; [3] Department of Astronomy and Space Science, University of Science and Technology (UST), Daejeon, South Korea; [4] Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Chungnam National University (CNU), Daejeon, South Korea; [4] Department of Physics, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon 305-701, South Korea
	Estimation of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar energetic proton (SEP) transport in the Earth’s atmosphere is essential to evaluate an aviation route dose. These energetic particles affect to the aviation doses by itself and by generating secondary particles' cascade in the Earth’s atmosphere. We develop a particle transport model, Korean Radiation Exposure Assessment Model for aviation route dose (KREAM). Particle transports and secondary generation are calculated using GEANT4 code. Integrating these simulation results, we make a global response matrix for incident energetic protons making possible to predict real-time dose depending on the various space weather conditions. With a NRLMSIS-00 atmospheric model, our model, KREAM, generates equivalent dose map depending on latitude, longitude and altitude. Comparison between KREAM, CARI-6 and NAIRAS for Halloween event (28, Oct, 2003) shows good agreements between those. In this paper, we present the results of comparison between (1) NAIRAS and KREAM, (2) Neutron Monitor data and KREAM, and (3) dose data from Liulin-6K onboard commercial flights/Air Force aircraft and KREAM.
10	Analysis of the fluence of large solar energetic particle events in the period 2010-2013	Pacheco, D et al.	p-Poster
	Daniel Pacheco[1], Neus Agueda[1], Angels Aran[1], Blai Sanahuja[1],Piers Jiggens[2]
	[1] Dep. d'Astronomia i Meteorologia, Institut de Ciències del Cosmos, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain , [2] European Space Research and Technology Centre, ESA, The Netherlands
	In order to specify the radiation environment due to solar energetic particle (SEP) events, for interplanetary missions, it is necessary to use simulations of the particle intensity-time profiles measured by virtual observers located at different positions in the heliosphere. At present, the physics-based models applied for such a purpose including a moving source of particles are not able to model the portion of the SEP intensity enhancement occurring after the coronal/interplanetary shock crossing by the observer (i.e. the downstream region). This is the case, for example, of the shock-and-particle model used to build the SOLPENCO2 code. SOLPENCO2 provides with synthetic SEP event simulations the statistical modelling tool developed in the ESA/SEPEM project for interplanetary missions (http://dev.sepem.oma.be/). This caveat from models may be addressed using SEP data. From observational studies, we know that the contribution of the downstream region of an SEP event to its total fluence can largely vary with the energy of the particles and from event to event. In this work, we present an analysis of several SEP events observed at 1 AU from 2010 to 2013. We identify the solar eruptive phenomena associated with these SEP events as well as the in-situ passage of interplanetary shocks. For each event, we quantify the amount of fluence accounted in the downstream region, i.e. after the passage of the shock. We discuss our results in terms of the heliolongitude of the observer with respect to the solar source site.