Session - Best practice into the development of operational SW prediction systems & in transitioning space science tools to operations

G. Lapenta, D. Berghmans, D. Jackson, S. Bingham

Operational space weather prediction is in its infancy. Accordingly, there is considerable scope to identify and integrate best practices from other disciplines (e.g from terrestrial weather forecasting) into operational space weather systems, and examples of the successful application of such best practices are vitally important in illustrating how things should be done. Furthermore, organisations such as the World Meteorological Organization, the International Space Environment Service and ESA play an important role in developing and implementing guidelines for best practice in operational space weather activities.

We welcome contributions covering all aspects of this topic, in particular "use cases" showing how good practice has been followed in developing new operational space weather prediction services (eg WSA Enlil predictions). We also seek contributions covering other relevant areas such as:
- robustness, reliability and testing of near-real time observation processing and space weather prediction modelling;
- use of near real time verification to assess system performance and to act as a benchmark against which future improvements can be measured;
- system resilience (eg backup data streams, 24/7 operations);
- use of customer feedback for developing products and for driving future improvements.

Furthermore, in the last few years new methods, observations and computer modelling tools have led to considerably advanced understanding of space weather and an improved ability to predict future events. Computer infrastructure developments include simulations, models, data storage and processing and visualisation, and range from single stand-alone tools that operate autonomously to large framework efforts that merge different tools addressing the issue of intercommunication between different methods developed by different teams in different locations. However, these developments are a long way from the technology readiness level required for operational service delivery. We also seek contributions aimed at identifying ways in which this barrier can be overcome, using the best practices discussed above.

Talks
Tuesday November 24, 11:00 - 13:00, Leopold

Poster Viewing
Tuesday November 24, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster area

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Talks : Time schedule

Tuesday November 24, 11:00 - 13:00, Leopold

11:00	Pioneering the path from research to operations.	Kuznetsova, M et al.	Oral
	M. Kuznetsova, M. Maddox, J. Boblitt, A. Chulaki, P. Macneice, L. Mays, M. Mendoza, R. Mullinix, A. Pembroke, A. Pulkkinen, L. Rastaetter, J-S. Shim, A. Taktakishvili, C. Wiegand, Y. Zheng
	Community Coordinated Modeling Center, NASA Goddard space Flight Center
	Since its establishment more than 15 years ago, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) acquired the unique experience in preparing complex models and model chains for operational environment and in developing of space weather forecasting and analysis systems. The presentation will overview challenges and key elements of a successful research to operations (R2O) transition and discuss ideas for best practices that accelerate implementation of advanced space weather prediction capabilities in operations.
11:15	RWC Belgium: learning from 15 years of operational Space Weather Services	Andries, J et al.	Oral
	Jesse Andries, Andy Devos, David Berghmans
	Royal Observatory of Belgium
	Since 15 years, the SIDC (Solar Influences Data analysis Centre) is performing operational Space Weather monitoring and providing public Space Weather services. This contribution reviews a number of recent and current developments focussing on how these developments evolved from and are shaped by our past experience. Various aspects will be covered, from operational procedures, over validation to customer communication. One such example, covering in fact all these aspects, is an ongoing rearrangement of the workflow concerning the follow-up of "events", pertaining both the alerting and reporting function and the forecasting and warning function. The need for expert forecaster annotation/moderation to the various automated alerting processes is clear and is currently provided by the 'PRESTO' messages. The current ongoing development aims at providing a more structured, coherent, and -- as often desired by the customer -- more selective and possibly tailored, alerting and warning service. However, this development is not only to the benefit of the final customers viewpoint. On the contrary, the development is also more importantly addressing the production workflow assuring that also most humanly produced information is stored in a queryable and traceable manner in relation to the automatically produced data. The resulting structured data then finally facilitate not only the customer communication but more importantly also the analysis of the performance of current practices and models and the identification and assessment of possible improvements. In the context of probabilistic forecasts, analysing current performance and learning from past experience can only be achieved through statistical analysis over sets of events. Hence the availability of consistent sets of data concerning the produced forecasts is a necessity.
11:30	Mexican Space Weather Service (SCIESMEX)	Gonzalez esparza, J et al.	Oral
	J.A. Gonzalez Esparza, V. De la Luz, P. Corona-Romero, J. Mejia-Ambriz, L. X. Gonzalez
	SCIESMEX, IGUM, UNAM, Mexico
	Recent modifications of the Civil Protection Law in Mexico include now specific mentions to space hazards and space weather phenomena. During the last few years, the UN has promoted international cooperation on Space Weather awareness, studies and monitoring. Internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a Space Weather Service in Mexico (SCIESMEX). The SCIESMEX (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) is operated by the Geophysics Institute at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The UNAM has the experience of operating several critical national services, including the National Seismological Service (SSN); besides that has a well established scientific group with expertise in space physics and solar- terrestrial phenomena. The SCIESMEX is also related with the recent creation of the Mexican Space Agency (AEM). The project combines a network of different ground instruments covering solar, interplanetary, geomagnetic, and ionospheric observations. The SCIESMEX has already in operation computing infrastructure running the web application, a virtual observatory and a high performance computing server to run numerical models. SCIESMEX participates in the International Space Environment Services (ISES) and in the Inter-progamme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) of the Word Meteorological Organization (WMO).
11:45	Lessons learned in FP7: Soteria, Swiff and eHeroes	Lapenta, G et al.	Oral
	Giovanni Lapenta; Soteria, Swiff and eHeroes teams
	www.swiff.eu, www.soteria-space.eu, www.eheroes.eu
	We report on the experience developed in three FP7 funded space weather projects: 1) www.swiff.eu 2) www.soteria-space.eu 3) www.eheroes.eu These projects included the development of Space Weather tools both physics based and heuristic. We will report on the experience in their development, deployment and use. The idea is not to present a long list of achievements (these are available on the web sites) but rather extract the fundamental lessons and key procedures in successfully designing and implementing a space weather tool.
12:00	Sol-Terra: A Roadmap to Operational Sun-to-Earth Space Weather Forecasting	Marsh, M et al.	Oral
	Mike Marsh[1], David Jackson[1], Alastair Pidgeon[2], Gareth Lawrence[2], Simon Reid[2], Mario Bisi[3], Mike Hapgood[3]
	[1] Met Office; [2] RHEA TECH; [3] STFC RAL Space
	The ability to accurately forecast Space Weather is still far behind terrestrial weather forecasts. The Met Office have recently opened a Space Weather Operations Centre, where highly-trained forecasters use computer models to help provide warnings of possible events, their potential impacts, their chronology and security/safety factors and concerns. Their objective is to improve forecast accuracy by having both better models and a coupled system that represents the whole Sun-Earth (Sol-Terra) environment. Many research models have been developed internationally, but typically with the aim of researching only specific areas of the Sun-Earth system; there is a pressing need for a detailed assessment of their suitability to operate within a coupled Space Weather forecast system. For a given model to be appropriate for operational forecasting, it is crucial to be: validated, capable of producing output before the space weather impacts are felt, able to couple to other models, be robust, and adopt good quality software engineering principles to facilitate future maintenance and evolution. Within the Sol-terra project, RHEA, the Met Office, and RAL Space have performed an assessment, working with academia and institutes, to survey what models are available globally, assess their scope and applicability, performance, validation status, potential coupling with other models, software engineering properties, and their scope for evolution. The resulting requirements on system and platform architecture have been analysed in detail, and architecture options for realising an operational system studied. We present the principal findings of the Sol-Terra project, a roadmap for the realisation of an operational end-to-end space weather forecast modelling system, and the main areas where further work is needed and best practice can be applied.
12:15	On forecasting solar eruptive events by the sunspot dynamics detected at photospheric level	Korsos, M et al.	Oral
	Marianna Korsos
	Un. of Sheffield, DHO-Hungary
	The aim of our study is to analyse the observed characteristic temporal variations in sunspot groups in order to provide reliable diagnostic tools for the forecast of imminence of flare and CME eruptions. We investigated data available from the SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data (SDD) and the SDO/HMI - Debrecen Data (HMIDD) sunspot catalogues. First of all we sugges the introduction of two parameters characterising ARs for warning for pre-flare and CME prediction and follow-up monitoring. One is the sa-called daily average of the horizontal magnetic gradient and the other is the separation parameter. These pre-cusror parameters seem to be useful to estimate the level of separation of opposite polarities in ARs by comparing the temporal variation before 24- (or 48-) hour a priori flare even with/without CME risk assessment. We also propose a method which is addresses a detailed examination of the flare- and CME-suspicious ARs. Our investigation employes the weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field defined between opposite polarity spot-groups at the polarity inversion line of ARs. The value and temporal variation of this proxy contains important information (i) about the expected time of flare, (ii) on flare intensity and (iii) on probable CME risk assessment.
12:30	Ionospheric Response to the Impact of strong Geomagnetic Storms	Hinrichs, J et al.	Oral
	Johannes Hinrichs[1], Volker Bothmer[1], Malte Venzmer[1], Michael Schmidt[2], Denise Dettmering[2], Marco Limberger[2], Florian Seitz[2], Klaus Börger[3], Sylvia Brandert[3], Barbara Görres[4], Wilhelm F. Kersten[4]
	[1] Instiute for Astrophysics at the University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany; [2] Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut der Technischen Universität München (DGFI-TUM), Munich, Germany; [3] German Space Situational Awareness Center (GSSAC), Uedem, Germany; [4] Bundeswehr Geoinformation Center (BGIC), Euskirchen, Germany
	The Institute for Astrophysics of the University of Goettingen analyses the impact of space weather parameters, derived from data from space-born missions (STEREO, SOHO, SDO, ACE, Proba2, GOES) and ground-based measurements (e.g. F10.7 radio flux), on the Earth's ionosphere. As part of the project OPTIMAP (OPerational Tool for Ionosphere Mapping And Prediction), the results will be used as an input for an operational forecast service, providing global vertical total electron content (VTEC) maps of the ionosphere for several days in advance. We present results from the ongoing study, describing the response of the global and local VTEC conditions to the strongest geomagnetic storms (Kp >= 8-) that occured since the launch of the ACE mission, also taking into account the associated flares.
12:45	Ionospheric Assimilation Model for Space Weather Monitoring and Forecasting	Lee, I et al.	Oral
	I. T. Lee[1], W. H. Chen[2], T. Matsuo[3,4], C. H. Chang[2], C. H. Lin[2], J. Y. Liu[5,6], W. Wang[7], A. D. Richmond[7]
	[1] Meteorological R&D Center, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; [2] Department of Earth Science, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan; [3] University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA; [4] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, USA; [5] National Space Organization, Hsinchu, Taiwan; [6] Institute of Space Science, National Central University, Jhongli City, Taiwan; [7] High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
	This paper presents our effort to develop an ionospheric assimilation model and further to transit to the Space Weather Operational Office in Taiwan. The radio occultation profiles and Ground-based total electron content (TEC) measurements are assimilated into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) by means of ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF). The observation are combined with TIE-GCM simulations by EnKF algorithms implemented in the NCAR Data Assimilation Research Testbed open-source community facility to compute 'the best' estimate of the current ionospheric and thermospheric state. Assimilation results are compared with independent observations which show the improvement of the model states. On the other hand, these adjusted states lead the model to run forward to create forecasting products. The forecasting results are continually verified to evaluate capabilities of this assimilation model. From research to operation, the assimilation model will open a new chapter on the ionospheric weather monitoring, and have an especially significant impact for future space weather forecasting.
12:58	Slurm: a Lagrangian Particle-in-Cell MHD Solver For Space Weather	Olshevsky, V et al.	e-Poster
	Vyacheslav Olshevsky, Fabio Bacchini, Giovanni Lapenta
	KU Leuven
	We present the initial test results of the new Lagrangian MHD solver intended for use in space weather forecasting. It is based on the FlipMHD algorithm proposed by Brackbill (1991), but implements modern architectural approach and exploits the state-of-the-art data layout and input/output procedures. The code targets shared-memory architectures and implements OpenMP paralleism. It intends to be used mainly for easy algorithm testing and simple integration with other observational/theoretical models. The code is going to be applied for modeling of the CME/shock propagation in a Lagrangian frame. Here we describe the test results in 2D scenarios: Orszag-Tang vortex and Harris current sheet.

Posters

Tuesday November 24, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster area

1	Slurm: a Lagrangian Particle-in-Cell MHD Solver For Space Weather	Olshevsky, V et al.	e-Poster
	Vyacheslav Olshevsky, Fabio Bacchini, Giovanni Lapenta
	KU Leuven
	We present the initial test results of the new Lagrangian MHD solver intended for use in space weather forecasting. It is based on the FlipMHD algorithm proposed by Brackbill (1991), but implements modern architectural approach and exploits the state-of-the-art data layout and input/output procedures. The code targets shared-memory architectures and implements OpenMP paralleism. It intends to be used mainly for easy algorithm testing and simple integration with other observational/theoretical models. The code is going to be applied for modeling of the CME/shock propagation in a Lagrangian frame. Here we describe the test results in 2D scenarios: Orszag-Tang vortex and Harris current sheet.
2	Using observations from L5 to improve space weather prediction	Bentley, B et al.	e-Poster
	Robert Bentley, Lucie Green
	University College London
	Predicting how space weather effects could influence the near-Earth environment is difficult, particularly because the range of effects that must be considered that have a variety of sources and operate over different time-scales with have varying dependencies on location. Proposals to place a space weather monitoring payload at L5 are now being discussed in both the US and UK and it is worth considering how such a capability could be incorporated into a space weather prediction system. From L5 it is possible to observe solar activity that could affect the Earth in a few days time; potentially this should make it possible to improve the accuracy and reliability of certain models and forecasts. We will discuss the instruments that might be included in the payload and how the observations could feed into different of the prediction system, what instrument capabilities are needed and what latencies of the data could be accepted. Based on experience gained from the HELIO project, we will also discuss how the data stream could be incorporated and how the resilience of the overall system could be improved.