Session - Progresses and challenges in coupling models for predicting space weather from the Sun to the Earth

N. Ganushkina, S. Poedts, A. Hilgers, D. Pitchford, B. van der Holst, P. Wintoft

Most space weather tools are limited to forecasting solar wind parameters at L1 and are too inaccurate to predict some important parameters (e.g. the AE index). To overcome this, tools based on coupled first-principle physics models should be developed that include the whole chain of processes starting on the Sun and ending at the Earth's surface. The ongoing EU and ESA SSA funding schemes focused on space weather related research are stimulating the development of numerous, more reliable tools aimed at forecast solar events, modeling the propagation of solar energetic particles and the response of the Earth's radiation belts, GICs, etc. This session focuses on recent advances and remaining challenges in coupled space-weather models, primarily, but not exclusively, in Europe. This session is soliciting contributions/reports on experiences, pitfalls, good practices, supporting software frameworks, etcetera for coupling two or more models to each other. Hereby, 'model' is to be interpreted in a broad way and includes e.g. also data sources, visualization software tools, etc. This topic thus also includes methods like Kalman filtering and data assimilation to tackle the challenge of infusing data in models in a proper way. Much can be learnt on these topics from research groups that have a broad experience, not only in our field, but also in meteorology. Papers are solicited on topics including existing models, physical description, numerical modelling, data processing, stakeholders needs and requirements, and validation.

Wednesday November 25, 11:00 - 13:00, Mercator

Poster Viewing
Wednesday November 25, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster area

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Talks : Time schedule

Wednesday November 25, 11:00 - 13:00, Mercator
11:00Towards Forecasting Capabilities from the Sun Down to Earth Kuznetsova, M et al.Invited Oral
11:15Towards precise global space weather forecasts: MHD and hybrid-Vlasov simulations comparedPalmroth, M et al.Invited Oral
11:30Estimating the Global Solar Photospheric Magnetic Field Distribution Using the ADAPT ModelArge, C et al.Invited Oral
11:45Forecasting Space Weather at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction CenterOnsager, T et al.Invited Oral
12:00Coupling Continuum and Particle space weather tools via the implicit moment method: the IMM approachLapenta, G et al.Oral
12:15PROGRESS - Prediction of Geospace Radiation Environment and Solar Wind ParametersBalikhin, M et al.Oral
12:30Data Assimilative Real Time Prediction of the Earth Radiation BeltsShprits, Y et al.Oral
12:45Turbulent energization of protons and minor ions by oblique wave spectra near the EarthManeva, Y et al.Oral


Wednesday November 25, 10:00 - 11:00, Poster area
1Models for predicting of magnetospheric VLF response to atmospheric perturbations impactBespalov, P et al.p-Poster
2Modeling evolution of the ion charge state composition of solar wind in the low coronaGoryaev, F et al.p-Poster
3First global 3D two-way coupled MHD-EPIC simulation of a magnetosphere: GanymedeMarkidis, S et al.p-Poster
4Estimating the inner heliosphere solar wind flow structure from the Heliospheric Imager observations.Barnard, L et al.p-Poster
5Predicting the solar wind speed from the surface of the Sun up to the heliospherePinto, R et al.p-Poster
6The LANL SHIELDS ProjectJordanova, V et al.p-Poster
7Multi-fluid modeling of magnetic reconnection in the Sun atmosphereAlvarez laguna, A et al.e-Poster
8On the long-period oscillations of the active region patterns: Method of least-square mapping on second order curvesDumbadze, G et al.p-Poster