Working Meeting - Space Weather Metrics, Verification and Validation

In order to provide reliable services to end-users, it is crucial to understand the strengths and potential limitations of the various elements underpinning those services. This includes the assumptions and algorithms on which models are based, and also the reliability of the associated infrastructure: e.g. data systems, space and ground-based measurement infrastructure. This also includes situations during extreme solar and geomagnetic conditions.

At the present time, within the space weather community, prototype services frequently operate as capability demonstrators and a full verification of their ability to reproduce/predict elements of the space environment under a range of space weather conditions, from the moderate to the extreme, has yet to be completed. Forecast accuracy has recently been addressed by a number of separate activities, but as yet a community-wide consensus on how to address this question and provide relevant information supporting end-users, service developers and modellers themselves for the wide range of models and domains involved has not been reached.

This working meeting follows on from the ESWW session addressing the same subject and will provide the opportunity for more detailed discussion addressing verification & validation needs for the current generation of activities under development and in planning. The session will build upon work discussed at the ISES Space Weather Forecast Verification Workshop in April 2015 and will promote further discussions and actions towards the ILWS-COSPAR workshop session on metrics to assess space weather predictions in January 2016, and upcoming space weather panel events scheduled for the COSPAR Assembly in Summer 2016.