Session 9 - Enhanced Space Weather Monitoring Systems

Stefan Kraft (ESOC/ESA)
Thursday 17/11, 10:00-13:00
Delvaux

Monitoring of the environment and the interaction of the Sun with the Earth has been explored and demonstrated well by former missions like SOHO, ACE, STEREO etc. ESA has investigated suitable architectures for Enhanced Space Weather Monitoring systems and recently initiated studies to further define the necessary satellite systems being positioned in suitable Lagrange points. The aim is to further prepare the feasibility demonstration of space weather monitoring and forecasting making significant use of European capabilities, that might possibly be optimised by collaborations with international partners. A system based on simultaneous observations from both L1 and L5 paired with sensors in Earth proximity would provide a suitable observation system capturing essential space weather conditions and related parameters in a holistic manner. This should allow to increase the lead times of early warnings and subsequent mitigation of hazardous effects that are potentially harmful for space and ground based infrastructures of our society. It is essential to present and discuss the current status and to consolidate the views with the space weather community glimpsing also at the involved scientific aspects. Therefore, for this session we encourage submission of contributions that would further a better understanding and advance the definition of future observing systems either with respect to the necessary instrumentation or satellite systems, or potentially enhanced observational methods that are expected to improve the performance of the such a monitoring system from space. This may include the consideration of suitable complementing remote sensing systems from ground.

Poster Viewing
Thursday November 17, 11:00 - 11:00, Poster Area

Talks
Thursday November 17, 11:00 - 13:00, Delvaux

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Talks : Time schedule

Thursday November 17, 11:00 - 13:00, Delvaux

11:00	Using a Payload at L5 to enhance Space Weather Forecasting	Bentley, B et al.	Invited Oral
	Robert Bentley, Lucie Green
	Mullard Space Science Laboratory (UCL)
	A number of studies have been underway over the last year to determine what types of instrument might be included on a payload to L5; the objective of such a mission would be to provide observations that would enhance current space weather forecasting capabilities. Space weather depends on a range of effects that have a variety of sources and operate over different time-scales with have varying dependencies on location. We examine what types of observation can be made from L5 and how they can be used individually and in combination to more accurately determine the onset of effects caused by structure in the solar wind (including CMEs) and also to facilitate probabilistic forecasting of flare and CME activity beyond what is possible with other data sets.
11:15	Results of the Airbus DS led P2-SWE-X Phase 0 ESA study for an operational Space Weather Service in L5	Trichas, M et al.	Oral
	Emanuele Monchieri, Markos Trichas, Philipp Voigt
	Airbus Defence and Space
	This presentation focuses on the Airbus Defence & Space concept for an ESA space weather monitoring mission in the Sun-Earth L5 point, as part of the ESA P2-SWE-X project. The consortium, led by Airbus DS, included CSL, Deimos, Imperial College London, Met Office, MSSL/UCL and RAL. The objective of the L5 mission is to ensure continued solar observations from a stable vantage point away from the Sun-Earth line. This system, in combination with an L1 system, will provide timely and accurate forecasts of space weather activity. Because a spacecraft in the vicinity of L5 offers a platform with continuous visibility to the Sun, it is also an excellent platform for solar observations. Finally, as a goal, also NEO (Near Earth Object) monitoring shall be an optional element for the L5 mission. This presentation will highlight the major results of this study: • The selection of a baseline of dedicated measurement requirements • The definition of appropriate instruments • The mission analysis • The design of a spacecraft platform • The on-ground communication network • The NEO monitoring as optional element The presentation will conclude with a summary of potential next steps to support a successful continuation of the ESA SWE activities. Acknowledgements This project is made possible through the help and support from Stefan Kraft (ESA/ESOC), Laurence Rossi (CSL), Fernando Pina Caballero and Oscar Gonzàlez (Deimos), Jonathan Eastwood (Imperial College London), Mark Gibbs and David Jackson (MetOffice), Bob Bentley, Andrew Fazakerley, Lucie Green and Dhiren Kataria (MSSL/UCL) and Jackie Davis and Richard Harrison (RAL).
11:30	Results of the Airbus DS led P2-SWE-X Phase 0 ESA study for an operational Space Weather Service in L1	Voigt, P et al.	Oral
	Philipp Voigt, Emanuele Monchieri, Markos Trichas, Klaus Ergenzinger
	Airbus Defence and Space
	This presentation focuses on the Airbus Defence & Space concept for an ESA space weather monitoring mission in the Sun-Earth L1 point, as part of the ESA P2-SWE-X project. The consortium, led by Airbus DS, included CSL, Deimos, Imperial College London, Met Office, MSSL/UCL and RAL. The objective of the L1 mission is to ensure continued availability of the observations of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field that are required to continue the operational space weather services existing already today. This mission is called L1 mission as the vicinity to the L1 point is the preferred location for these observations. Because a spacecraft in the vicinity of L1 offers a platform with continuous visibility to the Sun, it is also an excellent platform for solar observations. Finally, as a goal, also NEO (Near Earth Object) monitoring shall be an optional element for the L1 mission. This presentation will highlight the major results of this study: • The selection of a baseline of dedicated measurement requirements • The definition of appropriate instruments • The mission analysis • The design of a spacecraft platform • The on-ground communication network • The NEO monitoring as optional element The presentation will conclude with a summary of potential next steps to support a successful continuation of the ESA SWE activities. Acknowledgements This project is made possible through the help and support from Stefan Kraft (ESA/ESOC), Laurence Rossi (CSL), Fernando Pina Caballero and Oscar Gonzàlez (Deimos), Jonathan Eastwood (Imperial College London), Mark Gibbs and David Jackson (MetOffice), Bob Bentley, Andrew Fazakerley, Lucie Green and Dhiren Kataria (MSSL/UCL) and Jackie Davis and Richard Harrison (RAL).
11:45	Architectures for Space Weather monitoring missions to the Sun-Earth Lagrange points	Grasso, A et al.	Invited Oral
	Alessandro Grasso[1], Marc Scheper[1], Yulia Bogdanova[2], Jackie Davies[2], Richard Harrison[2], Mike Hapgood[2], David Ryley[3], Reuben Wright[3], Oliver Turnbull[3], Aurelie Heritier[3]
	[1]OHB System AG; [2]RAL Space; [3]Deimos Space
	As part of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme, ESA has initiated a study to define a system to monitor, predict and disseminate Space Weather information and to generate alerts to a wide community in sectors like space-based communications, broadcasting, weather services, navigation and terrestrial communications and infrastructure. The effects of Space Weather are observed for example in the degradation of spacecraft performance and risks to human health in manned space missions. Space weather also affects ground systems by damaging aircraft electronics, disrupting power distribution networks and pipelines and degrading radio communications. The Sun-Earth Lagrangian L1 and L5 orbits provide an unobstructed view of the Sun and hence are an optimal observation point for space weather payloads. Necessary space weather observations like monitoring of solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are only possible from space with a spacecraft outside the Earth's magnetosphere. Spacecraft missions currently enabling monitoring of solar events and IMF from the Lagrange point L1 are ACE and SOHO. Both missions are well beyond their original design life time and need replacement to ensure continuity of the measurements. Continuous observations from L5 have not been implemented so far and would significantly enhance the space weather forecasting capabilities by observing the state of the Sun's upcoming surface regions, and by the (through the side-viewing) very much improved Coronal Mass Ejection tracking and propagation prediction capabilities. The L1 mission baseline architecture as derived in this study takes heritage from the LISA Pathfinder mission concept. The spacecraft will be injected into low Earth orbit by the future European VEGA-C launcher, and will perform a transfer injection manoeuvre with the help of a transfer stage. For the L5 mission architecture, the satellite will be directly injected to the final trajectory using the future ESA Ariane 6-2 launcher. Both missions will carry imagers and in-situ instruments allowing to measure interplanetary medium and Sun conditions. In addition the definition study investigates the possibility of carrying a Near Earth Object imager to detect Near Earth objects posing a threat to Earth. Concluding, this paper will describe the space architectures and preliminary mission definitions enabling the continuation of space weather monitoring outside the Earth's magnetosphere. We will show the current outline of the satellite and ground station system definition, which is based on European heritage, and which can then be used in a next step for the feasibility studies.
12:00	Assessment of the payload for space weather monitoring missions situated at the L1 and L5 Lagrangian points.	Bogdanova, Y et al.	Invited Oral
	Yulia Bogdanova[1], Jackie Davies[1], Richard Harrison[1], Mario Bisi[1], Mike Hapgood[1], Mark Gibbs[2], David Jackson[2], Oliver Turnbull[3], David Riley[3], Reuben Wright[3], Alessandro Grasso[4], Marc Scheper[4]
	[1]RAL Space, STFC, Harwell Oxford, Didcot, UK; [2]Met Office, Exeter, UK; [3]Deimos Space UK Ltd, Harwell Oxford, UK; [4]OHB System AG, Bremen, Germany
	It has long been known that solar phenomena, including coronal mass ejections and solar flares, can cause magnetic and radiation storms in near-Earth space that can potentially be detrimental to everyday human life. Such storms can disrupt services (for example radio communication, satellite operation, electricity distribution, civil aviation, precision navigation and timing), and also have the potential to endanger human health. A dedicated monitoring mission, providing timely observations of conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, is essential in mitigating against the effects of space weather. In this study, funded under ESA’s Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme, concepts are being developed for space weather monitoring missions at L1 and L5; these missions, and their payloads, are designed to address the customer and system requirements originally defined in previous ESA studies. These requirements include the monitoring of conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, for prediction as well as post-event analysis, in order to support the mitigation of space weather effects over a wide range of domains, including spacecraft operation and design, human spaceflight operation and aviation. With the ultimate aim of defining a payload that will contribute to the successful provision of space weather services, we have re-analysed the original product specifications for the solar and interplanetary observations and developed a new set of observational requirements, taking into account the end user requirements by, for example, the UK Met Office. The suggested payloads for both L1 and L5 mission comprise similar suites of remote sensing and in-situ instruments, consisting of: magnetograph, coronagraph, heliospheric imager, EUV imager, radio spectrometer, X-ray detector, magnetometer, solar wind plasma analyser, high-energy heavy ion detector and high-energy electron and proton detector. The instrument specifications are tailored towards the different priorities of the two missions, which also influences the instrument prioritisation. We discuss the instruments performance required to achieve a threshold level, which is necessary to maintain current space weather services, and a goal level, which will facilitate improvements to the services in the future. This study has been performed under the ESA Contract No. 400113189/15/D/MPR, Enhanced Space Weather Monitoring System, as part of ESA's SSA Programme.
12:15	Development of the SCOPE operational space weather coronagraph	Davies, J et al.	Invited Oral
	Jackie Davies[1], Kevin Middleton[1], Ian Tosh[1], Volker Bothmer[2], Klaus Ergenzinger[3], Piers Jiggens[4], Stefan Kraft[5], Etienne Renotte[6], Matthew West[7] and the rest of the SCOPE team
	[1]STFC-RAL Space, UK; [2]University of Göttingen, Germany; [3]Airbus Defence and Space, Germany; [4]European Space Agency, ESA/ ESTEC, The Netherlands; [5]European Space Agency, ESA/ESOC, Germany; [6]Centre Spatial de Liège, Belgium; [7]Royal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium
	The most destructive space weather effects are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) ─ in particular, as is increasingly becoming realised, when they act in concert with other CMEs or background solar wind structures such as stream interaction regions. Coronagraphs image the solar corona in broad-band visible light through Thomson scatter of photospheric light, providing definitive, and timely, evidence of CME eruption. Space-borne coronagraph imagery is pivotal to the current provision of CME arrival predictions at Earth; the SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs have underpinned space weather services over much of the last two decades, reinforced, since 2007, by similar instrumentation on the STEREO spacecraft when appropriately located. Since these coronagraphs are aging scientific instruments hosted on aging scientific missions, it is imperative to consider their imminent replacement ─ ideally with instruments optimised for operational, as opposed to scientific, usage. To this end, the Solar Coronagraph for OPErations (SCOPE) is currently being developed in support of ESA’s Space Situational Awareness programme by a consortium comprising the UK, Belgium and Germany. In this presentation, we describe the conceptual design of SCOPE, which must balance user requirements, performance, design complexity, cost and demands on spacecraft resources. We discuss the determination of instrument requirements, key design trade-offs and evolution of the baseline design. We pay particular heed to 1. the management of stray light (the Thomson-scattered signal must be extracted from other signals that can be orders of magnitude greater, which poses challenges for instrument design), 2. the efficient management and processing of data, exploring options for correcting and reducing data on-orbit, and 3. the robust operation of the instrument during active conditions that are often associated with high fluxes of solar energetic particles that may damage or degrade detectors and electronics, and also produce undesirable image artefacts. As an important aspect in instrument development is having confidence in critical performance aspects – in this case stray-light rejection – we present plans for developing an optics breadboard that will be used to assess the stray-light performance of the instrument before committing to detailed design. This work is being performed under the ESA Contract No. 4000116072/15/NL/LF as part of ESA's General Support Technology Programme.
12:30	Development of an operational space weather heliospheric imager	Davies, J et al.	Oral
	Jackie Davies, Richard Harrison, James Tappin, Chris Eyles
	STFC-RAL Space, UK
	Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are arguably the harbingers of the most destructive space weather effects on Earth. Since the 1970s, coronagraphs have been imaging CMEs in the near-Sun coronal regime in broad-band visible light. Coronagraph imagery ─ albeit from aging instrumentation on aging scientific missions ─ underpins current predictions of CME arrival at Earth, predictions that are a crucial input to the mitigation strategies of many customers reliant on space weather services. Over the last decade or so, with the launch of the Coriolis and STEREO missions, analogous endeavours in broad-band visible-light imaging of the inner heliosphere have demonstrated that CMEs can not only be imaged at coronal altitudes, but all the way out to 1 AU and beyond. Observations from the STEREO Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments, in particular, have provided evidence that the kinematics and morphology of CMEs can evolve significantly throughout their propagation, through interactions with the background solar wind ─ including interaction regions and fast solar wind streams ─ and other CMEs. It is increasingly becoming realised that such interactions magnify the geoeffective potential of CMEs, highlighting the need to incorporate heliospheric imagery into any credible future space weather monitoring strategy. Whilst STEREO/HI is not optimised in an operational space weather sense (not least due to the nature of the STEREO orbit), it has demonstrated the significant promise of heliospheric imagery for improving CME arrival predictions. In this presentation, we assess the requirements for an operational space weather heliospheric imager, based on our experience with previous instruments of that ilk ─ particularly STEREO/HI ─ which must balance user requirements, performance, design complexity, cost and demands on spacecraft resources. We focus, in particular, on the management of stray light ─ as the CME signal is several orders of magnitude less than that of other sources, which poses challenges for instrument design ─ and the robust operation of the instrument during active conditions, as the latter are often associated with high fluxes of solar energetic particles that may damage or degrade detectors and electronics, and also produce undesirable image artefacts.
12:45	Developing a VLF transmitter for LEO satellites: Probing Of Plasmasphere and RADiation Belts - the POPRAD proposal	Lichtenberger, J et al.	Oral
	János Lichtenberger[1,2], Ondrej Santolik[3], János Solymosi[4], Luděk Graclík[5], Fabien Darrouzet[6], Andrei Demekhov[7], Alexander Kudrin[8], Nikolai Lehtinen[9]
	[1]Department of Geophysics and Space Sciences, Eötvös University, Budapest, Hungary; [2]Geodetic and Geophysical Institute, RCAES, Sopron, Hungary; [3]Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic; [4]BHE Bonn Hungary Electronics Ltd., Budapest, Hungary; [5]G.L. Electronic Ltd, Brno-Medlánky, Czech Republic; [6]Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium; [7]Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia; [8]Department of Radiophysics, University of Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia; [9]Norwegian Center of Excellence Birkeland Center for Space Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
	Recent advances in the monitoring of the plasmasphere (e.g. the PLASMON FP7-Space project,http://plasmon.elte.hu, Lichtenberger et al., Space Weather Space Clim. 3 2013, A23 DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2013045) http) makes the continuous monitoring of the plasmasphere possible. But this monitoring capability totally depends on natural and sporadic phenomena, preventing systematic monitoring required for operational Space Weather models and forecasts. The limiting factor in the physics-based models of the radiation belts is not due to inadequacies of the model but rather due to the quality and availability of inputs and drivers. To overcome of this bottleneck, we proposed a project to develop a VLF transmitter for polar orbiting LEO satellites for a) systematic probing of the plasmasphere by transmitting impulses in the range of 1-10kHz that are powerful enough to reach the other hemisphere propagating along the magnetic field lines; b) systematic probing of energetic electron populations by generating frequency steps in the range of 1-10kHz by pitch-angle scattering the counter-streaming electrons and precipitate them. The proposal intends to complete the development with a successful launch of the instrument as payload on satellite(s). During the operation of such a satellite, the transmitted impulses is planned to received by the global, ground based Automatic Whistler Detector and Analyzer Network (AWDANet, Lichtenberger et al., J. Geophys. Res., 113, 2008, A12201, doi:10.1029/2008JA013467) to obtain the lectron densities along the propagation paths of the impulses. The precipitated energetic electrons are planned to be measured by the very same or by the SEM/MEPED instruments on polar orbiting satellites. The POPRAD proposal has been submitted to H2020-COMPET-5-2016: Scientific Instrumentation call.

Posters

Thursday November 17, 11:00 - 11:00, Poster Area

1	The Worldwide Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Stations (WIPSS) Network	Bisi, M et al.	e-Poster
	Mario M. Bisi[1], J. Americo Gonzalez-Esparza[2,3,4], Ernesto Aguilar-Rodriguez[2,3,4], Oyuki Chang[4], Bernard V. Jackson[5], Hsiu-Shan Yu[5], Munetoshi Tokumaru[6], Igor Chashei[7], Sergey Tyul’bashev[7], Richard A. Fallows[8], Periasamy K. Manoharan[9] and Dusan Odstrcil[10,11].
	[1]STFC-RAL Space, UK; [2]SCiESMEX, MX; [3]MEXART, MX; [4]UNAM, MX; [5]CASS-UCSD, CA, USA; [6]ISEE, Nagoya University, Japan; [7]Pushchino Radio Observatory, Russia; [8]ASTRON, NL; [9]TIFR, Ooty, India; [10]GMU, VA, USA; [11]NASA GSFC, MD, USA.
	Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) has been in use for over half a century and is a technique that can be implemented for space-weather purposes as a standalone technique and also as a complementary technique to space-based assets and in various forms of space-weather modelling. IPS occurs due to density variations and turbulence throughout the inner heliosphere which exhibits itself as a variation (twinkling) in amplitude (and phase) of the radio signal received from a distant, point-like radio source traversing through the interplanetary medium. IPS enables us to obtain velocity and density-proxy values for each line of sight through the inner heliosphere. It also provides signs of field rotation somewhere along the line of sight. Where there is sufficient sky coverage and sufficient temporal coverage over several days to several Carrington rotations, many observations of IPS can be brought together into the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) computer assisted tomography (CAT) three-dimensional (3-D) reconstructions. This has been undertaken routinely with IPS data taken from the Japanese ISEE IPS arrays (formerly STEL/STELab) operated by Nagoya University since the late 1990s. These 3-D reconstructions can be used for both scientific investigations as well as for forecasting purposes (e.g. http://ips.ucsd.edu/) and also for driving space weather MHD models such as ENLIL (e.g. http://helioweather.net/models/ipsbd/vel1e4/). The IPS community is in the process of forming the Worldwide Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Stations (WIPSS) Network whereby this brings together, initially, the core space-weather focussed IPS community with the aim of producing globally-combined IPS data (initially from ISEE-Japan, Pushchino-Russia, and MEXART-Mexico, then with the addition of Ooty-India) to feed into the UCSD CAT 3-D reconstructions for improving the space-weather forecasting potential and capabilities using IPS data. The ultimate goal of WIPSS is to bring all of the worldwide IPS community together for space-weather and scientific purposes. Here we will report on the initial formation of WIPSS, on the progress to date in testing the WIPSS UCSD CAT 3-D forecasting capabilities, and briefly of the validation steps undertaken through multiple projects as well as on the complementarities between WIPSS and space-based assets for space weather purposes.
2	The US/UK L1/L5 Operational Space Weather Monitoring System	Trichas, M et al.	p-Poster
	Markos Trichas[1], Thomas Berger[2], Doug Biesecker[2], Emanuele Monchieri[1]
	[1]Airbus Defence and Space; [2]National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
	Airbus Defence and Space (UK), in collaboration with NOAA SWPC and NESDIS, have carried out an internally funded study to design a fully operational space weather monitoring system that will ensure timely and accurate forecasts of space weather events. The study addressed NOAA/NESDIS requirements for a combined L1/L5 operational space weather mission. A particular focus for this study is cost/development time effectiveness and robustness of the system. Our proposed solution is a joint L1/L5 mission on a shared launch, that shares common platforms, subsystems and payloads, ensuring operational robustness and forecasting effectiveness. A schedule analysis shows that the earliest launch could occur as early as 2021-22, assuming Phase A/B KO in early 2017.
3	Analysis of Straylight and Signal-to-Noise Requirements for an Operational Coronagraph SCOPE	Hinrichs, J et al.	p-Poster
	Johannes Hinrichs[1], Matthew West[2], Jackie Davies[3], Volker Bothmer[1], Klaus Ergenzinger[4], Jean-Philippe Halain[5], Piers Jiggens[6], Kevin Middleton[3], and the rest of the SCOPE team
	[1]Institut für Astrophysik, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany; [2]Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium; [3]RAL Space, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, United Kingdom; [4]Airbus DS Space Systems, Friedrichshafen, Germany; [5]CSL – Centre Spatial de Liège, Liège, Belgium; [6]European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), Noordwijk, Netherlands
	Currently, there are space-borne coronagraphs - observing the solar corona and its dynamics, especially coronal mass ejections (CMEs) – operating aboard two missions, SOHO and STEREO. SOHO and STEREO are now about 20 and 10 years old, respectively, and were both designed as scientific missions. Therefore we urgently need to develop a new coronagraph to guarantee key space weather observations in the near future, keeping in mind operational requirements needed for reliable space weather forecasts. The ESA SCOPE (Solar Coronagraph for OPErations) project is targeted to fill the current gap. Here we present studies of the signal-to-noise (SNR) performance required for SCOPE to successfully perform space weather operations. We assess this through generating a set of simulated coronagraph images, with various levels of SNR, using the ray-tracing code of the GCS-routine in SolarSoft, developed by A. Thernisien, together with a model of the coronal brightness and including specific instrumental parameters. The images are both inspected by eye, and are used as input for the automatic CME-detection tool CACTUS. We determine at what level of SNR the manual and automatic detection procedures are no longer able to detect CMEs in the images, and compare to estimated SNR levels in real coronagraph images.
4	E-Callisto antenna on Greenland	Leer, K et al.	p-Poster
	Kristoffer Leer[1], Christian Monstein[2]
	[1]DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark. [2]Institute for Astronomy ETH Zürich, Switzerland
	The E-Callisto network is a global network of radio antenna that can detect radio burst associated with CMEs or flares. The network offers a low-cost way of detecting solar phenomena, which can be used for space weather science and forecast. There are approximately 30 active antennas today. A Long Wavelength Array Active Crossed-Dipole Antenna has been installed in Kellyville, Greenland. The remote and harsh environment of Greenland benefits from very low background noise in the radio regime. This paper presents the challenges in the arctic climate and the benefits of operating radio antennas in the remote locations.
5	Forecast of future geomagnetic storm strength: 5 years online	Podladchikova, T et al.	p-Poster
	[1] T.V.Podladchikova,[2] A.A.Petrukovich
	[1]Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Russia; [2]Space Research Institute, Russia
	Using L1 solar wind and IMF measurements we forecast expected strength of geomagnetic storm several hours ahead. Storm Dst magnitude can be well predicted, while exact time profile of the index and moment of minimal Dst remain uncertain. The forecast was implemented online in 2011 (http://spaceweather.ru). In this poster we review performance of the algorithm during more than 5 years of operation. This solar maximum is rather weak, so the most of statistics are rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of online input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives.
6	Analysis of methods for estimating westward auroral electrojet current with meridian magnetometer chain data	Evdokimova, M et al.	p-Poster
	Evdokimova M.A. , Petrukovich A.A.
	Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
	This work presents the estimates auroral electrojet (equivalent ionospheric current) using magnetic field observations along a meridian chain of ground-based magnetometers in auroral zone. We compare performance of several methods, available in literature, for various configurations of substorm currents, mostly for intense westward electrojet, measured by IMAGE network and some more equatorward stations. Practical applicability of available models depending on electrojet structure and station location was investigated. Optimal models (model modifications) may differ for sparse and dense networks, station latitude. Analysis of errors was also carried out.
7	Next Generation Radiation Monitoring (NGRM)	Lupi, A et al.	p-Poster
	A. Lupi[1], P. Nieminen[2], T. Watterton[2], E. Jaramillo[3], F. Chastellain[3], U. Dose[3]
	[1]RHEA c/o ESA-ESOC, SSA Programme Office; [2]European Space Agency, ESA-ESTEC, The Netherlands; [3]RUAG Space, Switzerland
	Within the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme, ESA is implementing an Enhanced Space Weather Monitoring system, which is also making use of hosted payloads as part of the establishment of a Distributed Space Weather Sensor System (D3S). After the well-recognised success of SREM (Standard Radiation Environment Monitor) embarked in different missions, e.g. PROBA-1, INTEGRAL, Rosetta, GIOVE-B, HERSCHEL, PLANCK, and EMU (Environment Monitor Unit) embarked in Galileo, ESA decided to start the development of its successor. SSA programme, together with ESTEC and RUAG as leader of an European consortium, is realising the implementation of the first Next Generation Radiation Monitor (NGRM) hosted by the EDRS-C satellite which will be the first hosted payload developed as part of D3S. It will be monitoring the highly dynamic space radiation environment around Earth for spacecraft safety and also supporting development of radiation belt models, solar particle flux models, and space radiation effects tools . NGRM will measure protons from 2 MeV up to 200 MeV, electrons from 100keV up to 7MeV, as well as LET spectrum of ions. Compared to SREM, NGRM will provide a much better energy resolution, will be smaller, lighter and consume less. In this poster, NGRM description will be detailed and some promising results from EQM will be shown.