Due to significant spatial and temporal changes in the cosmic radiation field, radiation measurements with advanced dosimetric instruments on board spacecrafts, aircrafts and balloons are very important. Considering the space weather effects in the near Earth region the first measurement stage is sun-orbiting satellites, the second one is Earth-orbiting satellites, the third one is measurements on board ISS and the final stage would be a balloon measurement platform in the stratosphere.
The Hungarian CoCoRAD Team was selected to take part in the BEXUS (Balloon Experiment for University Students) 12&13 project. In the frame of the BEXUS programme Hungarian students from the Budapest University of Technology and Economics carried out a radiation and dosimetric experiment on a research balloon, which was launched from Northern Sweden in September 2011. As an extension and improvement of the CoCoRAD a new experiment - called TECHDOSE - is expectedly launched in the 2012's BEXUS Launch Campaign at the end of September. The main goal of these experiments is to develop a platform for cosmic radiation measurements on board stratospheric balloons which is capable of measuring most of the particles in the stratosphere.
In the ESWW conference last year we presented the preliminary results of the CoCoRAD experiment. The present paper will summarise the final results of the CoCoRAD measurements and give a first overview about the TECHDOSE new measurement results. A comparison of the results of the two experiments will be also provided in the light of the solar activity.

Gyroresonant wave particle interactions with whistler mode chorus play a fundamental role in the dynamics of the Earth's radiation belts and inner magnetosphere, affecting both the acceleration and loss of radiation belt electrons. Knowledge of the variability of chorus wave power as a function of both spatial location and geomagnetic activity, required for the computation of pitch angle and energy diffusion rates, is thus a critical input for global radiation belt models. Here we present a global model of lower band (0.1fce<f<0.5fce) and upper band (0.5fce<f<fce) chorus, where fce is the local electron gyrofrequency, using data from five satellites, extending the coverage and improving the statistics of existing models. From the plasmapause out to L*=10 the chorus emissions are found to be largely substorm dependent with the largest intensities being seen during active conditions. Equatorial lower band chorus is strongest during active conditions with peak intensities of the order 2000 pT^2 in the region 4<L*<9 between 2300 and 1200 MLT. Equatorial upper band chorus is both weaker and less extensive with peak intensities of the order a few hundred pT^2 during active conditions between 2300 and 1200 MLT from L*=3 to L*=7. Moving away from the equator mid-latitude chorus is strongest in the lower band during active conditions with peak intensities of the order 2000 pT^2 in the region 4 <L*<9 but is restricted to the dayside between 0700 and 1400 MLT.

Energetic charged particles trapped in the inner magnetosphere (radiation belts and ring current) are a major source of damaging space weather effects on life and society here on Earth. While these energetic electrons and ions may not carry the bulk of the plasma mass or energy content, they directly and adversely affect space-based technological assets and they pose a serious risk of harm to astronauts. Understanding the physical processes that enhance the ring current and radiation belts is, therefore, a timely and pressing issue. The problem is, however, that everything seems to happen at once, with competing source and loss processes driven by the same external factors. In addition, the fast speed of these particles makes the problem global in nature.
The ring current is a key current system in the inner Earth's magnetosphere and a defining element of magnetic storms. There are two primary external drivers of the ring current to consider: the source population and the sunward force within the magnetosphere. For the former, there are questions about solar wind entry mechanisms into the magnetosphere, ionospheric outflow rates and acceleration in the magnetosphere, and the recirculation of magnetospheric plasma back into the magnetotail. For the latter, there are issues regarding the distribution of the convection electric field in the magnetosphere, electric potential saturation, and the relative role of convection versus substorm inductive electric fields in supplying plasma to the inner magnetosphere. The existence of the partial (rather than symmetric) ring current leads to the distortion of the magnetic and electric fields in near-Earth space and therefore to nonlinear feedbacks on the ring current itself. This influence of the ring current on its further development is a critical unknown that is just beginning to be explored by the magnetospheric physics community. In addition to these issues, there are still concerns about the dominant loss mechanisms of the ring current. In particular, there is debate about when flow-out loss to the magnetopause is larger than charge exchange loss within the magnetosphere. Recent studies have clarified this, but questions remain about when and how these two loss mechanisms relate to the ring current drivers and morphology. Ring current is a catalyst of many space weather phenomena. There is uncertainty, however, in predicting the strength and morphology of the ring current because it depends on the nonlinear combination of several source populations and physical mechanisms. Large-scale, systematic investigation of the physical processes controlling the flow of particles into and through the inner magnetosphere is presented using
Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration
Model (IMPTAM), developed by Ganushkina et al. [2001, 2005, 2006], which is a tool to model and forecast the behavior of ring current and radiation belts particles in the inner Earth's magnetosphere. We demonstrate the ability to model the development of the ring current during storms and to produce seed electron population to be further accelerated to radiation belts energies.

The Sheffield online forecast of daily fluxes at geostationary orbit became operational in spring 2012. The forecast is based on the mathematical model identified in the frame of the systems approach to complex dynamical systems. For the first stage, an orthogonal least squares technique was used to identify solar wind parameters that control fluxes of electrons for different energy ranges. For the second stage, NARMAX models for various energy ranges were identified. The Sheffield model forecast reliability is compared with other available online tools. In addition to providing the reliable online 24 hours ahead forecast the identified models are able to advance physical insight into the evolution of the fluxes at the geostationary orbit. In particular, it will be shown how the results of the orthogonal least squares technique can be used to differentiate between effects of radial and local energy diffusion.

Understanding the evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), their directions and kinematics, is essential in order to enhance existing forecasting methods. Using a numerical simulation we validate the constrained Harmonic Mean method, that is used to derive speed profiles of CMEs from close to the Sun up to 1 AU by combining remote sensing and in situ data. The event of 07 August 2010 is simulated by using the numerical heliospheric code ENLIL. This model provides, besides modeled in-situ data at the s/c positions from STEREO-B, Wind and VEX, the top view of the CME as well as synthetic heliospheric images as observed by STEREO-A and STEREO-B. These two view points, from top and from aside, give us the possibility to compare the resulting kinematics yield by the constrained Harmonic Mean method to the actual speed profile of the modeled CME. In this vein we assess the ability of the constrained Harmonic Mean method to provide apex and flank kinematics for CMEs. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are known to cause geomagnetic storms on Earth. However, not all CMEs will trigger geomagnetic storms, even if they are heading towards the Earth. In this study, frontside halo CMEs with speed larger than 800 km/s have been identified from the SOHO LASCO catalogue. A subset of these halo CMEs did not cause a geomagnetic storm the following four days and have therefore been considered as false alarms. The properties of these events are investigated and discussed here.
The ability to identify potential false alarms is considered as an important factor when forecasting geomagnetic storms.

This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252)

The main objective of the SEPServer project (EU FP7 project 262773, coordinated by the University of Helsinki) is to produce a new tool, which greatly facilitates the investigation of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and their origin: a server providing SEP data, related electromagnetic (EM) observations and analysis methods, a comprehensive catalogue of the observed SEP events, and educational/outreach material on solar eruptions. The project combines data and knowledge from 11 European partners and several collaborating parties from Europe and the US.

The datasets provided by the consortium partners are collected in a MySQL database (using the ESA Open Data Interface under licence) on a server operated by DH Consultancy, which also hosts a web interface providing browsing, plotting and post-processing and analysis tools developed by the consortium, as well as a Solar Energetic Particle event catalogue. At this stage of the project, a prototype server has been established, which is presently undergoing testing by users inside the consortium.

Using a centralized database has numerous advantages, including:

• homogeneous storage of the data, which eliminates the need for dataset specific file access routines once the data are ingested in the database; 
• a homogeneous set of metadata describing the datasets on both a global and detailed level, allowing for automated access to and presentation of the various data products; 
• standardised access to the data in different programming environments (e.g. php, IDL); 
• elimination of the need to download data for individual data requests.

SEPServer will thus add value to several space missions and Earth-based observations by facilitating the coordinated exploitation of and open access to SEP data and related EM observations, and promoting correct use of these data for the entire space research community. This will lead to new knowledge on the production and transport of SEPs during solar eruptions and facilitate the development of models for predicting solar radiation storms and calculation of expected fluxes/fluences of SEPs encountered by spacecraft in the interplanetary medium.

In this paper, a new Australian Regional Ionospheric Disturbance Index (AusRDI) is introduced using Spherical Cap Harmonic Analysis (SCHA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) techniques. AusRDI is defined as the relative deviation of the vertical Total Electron Content. (TEC). The SCHA method was firstly used to estimate TEC at evenly distributed grid points from GPS data collected from the Australian Regional GPS Network (ARGN). PCA was then used to decompose the TEC dataset into a series of orthogonal Eigenfunctions (EOF base functions) and associated coefficients. The base function represents the variation in TEC with latitude and longitude. PCA is non parametric and as such does not utilize deviation from a previously described average to determine perturbations. It is used as a potentially useful method for detecting and describing the TEC disturbance during storm time. Specifications of the TEC variations are discussed and criteria for identifying TEC storm event are proposed. This approach will provide reliable ionospheric characterization during all possible ionospheric conditions for operational applications with high temporal and spatial resolution . Keywords: PCA, Disturbance Index, Regional, SCHA, TEC, GPS, Australia .

The basic modelling method of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in power networks assumes that (1) the locations of transformer stations (nodes) and transmission lines as well as all DC resistances are known, and that (2) the geoelectric field is known in the area of the power grid. The EU/FP7 project EURISGIC (European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents) considers the whole European area with a prototype grid model of about 1800 nodes and 2400 transmission lines. The model imitates the true configuration, but it contains simplifications such as a reduced number of substations and lines and approximate estimates of resistances. The ground conductivity models also contain inaccuracies, which affect the modelled geolectric field and GIC. Considering these uncertainties, a question arises if we can still obtain a reasonable overall understanding about the occurrence of GIC. We have performed systematic tests to study the variability of GIC indicators (such as the sum of the absolute values of GIC to the ground at substations) with (1) fixed power grid models and varying conductivity models, and with (2) fixed conductivity models and varying power grid parameters. Of special interest is to investigate whether some sites can always experience large GIC even if the nearby power grid configuration is changed.

PROBA2 is an ESA micro-satellite in orbit since end 2009. Besides two in-situ plasma instruments, the science payload consists of the solar monitoring instruments SWAP and LYRA. SWAP is an EUV imager observing the million degree solar corona at a minute cadence while LYRA is an (E)UV radiometer sampling non-stop at a nominal rate of 20Hz. In this paper we concentrate on recent software developments for the SWAP and LYRA data to deliver a full flare monitoring service. We present the new LYRA data product that shows flare timelines in the same format as the familiar ABCMX-scaling from the NOAA GOES SXR instrument. In addition we show the "soFAST" automated processing pipeline to detect the occurrence and location of flares in the SWAP EUV image series. These results are fused into a dedicated webpage for flare monitoring http://proba2.oma.be/ssa . We believe that such a flare monitoring service based on an ESA microsatellite can be a prototype in the future space segment of ESA's Space Situational Awareness Program. We additionally discuss the further possibilities concerning event catalogues and flare alert messages.

We demonstrate the storm-time performance of a software tool for near-real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices. This software tool will be integrated into DLR's SWACI system as an operational Geomagnetic Forecast Module of the Forecast System Ionosphere.

Live presentation of near-real time forecasting will be given at the AFFECTS User Workshop (to be announced separately).

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement ¹ 263506 (AFFECTS project, www.affects-fp7.eu).

The issues of studying of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections and their influence on the parameters of the near-Earth space involve analysis of and allowance for the types of the coronal mass ejections, their interaction with the near-Earth space, and the characteristics of their geoeffective manifestations. In this work, we have studied the features of the sporadic solar microwave emission which precedes recording of the geoeffective coronal mass ejections on the basis of the broadband patrol observations of the Sun in the radio range, which cover the centimeter-, decimeter-, and meter-wave ranges in some periods of the XXIst–XXIIIrd solar-activity cycles.
It has been shown that a significant number of coronal mass ejections in a two-hour interval before their recording by coronagraphs are preceded by sporadic radio emission that can be defined as radio precursors of coronal mass ejections. The following regular features of the existence of radio precursors of such coronal mass ejections whose effect on the near-Earth space is accompanied by variations in the geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst) have been established on the basis of statistical consideration: the presence of the broadband radio emission of radio precursors of coronal ejections at least in one wavelength range, centimeter or decimeter; radio-precursor duration exceeds 10 min.
It is confirmed that halo and partial halo coronal mass ejections, the most geoeffective coronal mass ejections, are preceded by radio precursors which cover the centimeter- and decimeter-wave ranges and have the special features, namely, the radiation component possessing similar temporal behavior at various frequencies of the microwave range with a gradual increase and subsequent decrease in the flux, which simultaneously emerges in the entire microwave range. It is confirmed that in cases where the source of coronal mass ejections is located at the western edge of the solar disk or behind its limb, the broadband radio precursors are absent due to the radiation directivity effect, whereas geoeffective manifestations of the halo and partial halo coronal ejections are possible. In conclusion, it should be emphasized that allowance for the effects in a wide spectrum of electromagnetic waves, including the microwave radiation, in the stage of formation and initial propagation of coronal mass ejections seems a necessary step in the complex approach to considering geoeffectiveness of coronal ejections and their influence on the parameters of the near-Earth space.

The magnetic structure of five ICMEs with MC parts have been examined by using data from the ACE and NEAR spacecraft. During July and August 2000, NEAR had a longitudinal separation to ACE of less than 15°, and had a distance to the Sun of ~1.78 AU. Only three of the five ICMEs observed by ACE were observed by NEAR.
All of the observed ICMEs were analyzed by using a minimum variance analysis (MVA) in order to determine their orientation. It was found that the orientation in some cases were highly dependent on the chosen boundaries of the MC, and as only magnetic field data were available from the NEAR spacecraft the boundaries were difficult to determine. Therefore a large number of different boundaries, and boundary combinations were tested and the final boundaries used for the MVA were found by using a number of criteria. It was found that the handedness remained the same in the MC at both ACE and NEAR, and that the orientation maximally varied 45°. The solar source was found for four of the events, and three of these were associated with a flare leaving behind a post-flare loop. The handedness of the post-flare loop was determined and it was the same as seen in the associated MCs in all three cases.

This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

On September 24 2011, NOAA Active Region 1302 produced a M7.1 flare accompanied by an intense radio burst observed by the Radio Solar Telescope Network of the US Air Force Weather Agency. For several minutes, the flux at 1415 MHz was greater than 60000 SFU, and even intermittently fluctuated up to 100000 SFU.
This event was strong enough to affect the reception of GNSS signals (1575 and 1227 MHz) at several stations of the EUREF Permanent Network. We discuss in detail how the carrier power to noise density (C/N0) observations of the receivers in the network were affected during this event. We also investigate the parameters, which influence the most the sensitivity of an individual station to a solar radio burst.

Total electron content (TEC) is an important parameter influencing the propagation of electromagnetic signals (e.g., from GNSS). The GPS measurement (Topcon NET-G3) has been carried out at the Pruhonice station (Czech Republic, 49N, 15E) together with the digisonde DPS-4D measurement which gives relatively unique combination of ionospheric observation. Results from the GPS compared to the digisonde measurement and the model of electron concentration are compared to study ionospheric responses under geomagnetically quiet and stormy situation.

We use interplanetary transport simulations to compute a database of electron Green's functions, i.e., differential intensities resulting at the spacecraft position from an impulsive injection of energetic (>20 keV) electrons close to the Sun, for a large number of values of two standard interplanetary transport parameters: the scattering mean free path and the solar wind speed. The nominal energy channels of the ACE, STEREO and Wind spacecraft have been used in the interplanetary transport simulations to conceive a unique tool for the study of near-relativistic electron events observed at 1 AU. The database will be publicly available through the EU/FP7 project SEPServer website.

In this presentation, we use the database to quantify the Green's functions characteristic times (onset and peak time, rise and decay phase duration) as a function of the interplanetary transport conditions. We also provide an estimation of the full width at half maximum of the pitch-angle distributions at different times of the event and under different scattering conditions. This allows us to provide a first quantitative result that can be compared with observations, and that allows an assessment of the validity of the frequently used term beam-like pitch-angle distribution.

We examine data from two magnetospheric and a topside ionosphere missions (Cluster, Geotail and CHAMP) as well as ground-based magnetometer networks (e.g. IMAGE) for signatures of ULF waves during the 2003 Halloween geospace magnetic superstorm. We use a suite of wavelet-based algorithms, which are a subset of a tool that is being developed within the context of "Multi-satellite, multi-instrument and ground-based observations analysis and study of ULF wave phenomena and products" (ULFwave), an ESA funded study. We provide evidence for the occurrence of a number of prominent ULF wave events in the Pc 3-5 bands during the storm and offer a platform to study the wave evolution from high magnetic latitudes to low Earth orbit (LEO) and ground. The solid results confirm the applicability and the potential of our wavelet-based algorithms for the analysis of multi-instrument multi-satellite observations and the detection, identification and classification of ULF waves. In the past decade, a critical mass of high-quality scientific data on the electric and magnetic fields in the Earth's magnetosphere has been progressively collected. This data pool will be further enriched by the measurements of the upcoming ESA/Swarm mission, a constellation of three satellites in three different polar orbits between 400 and 550 km altitude, which will be launched by the end of 2012. New analysis tools that can cope with measurements of various spacecraft at various regions of the magnetosphere, like the ones used in the present study, will effectively enhance the scientific exploitation of the accumulated data. The ULFwave study is funded by ESA under contract ESTEC 4000103770/11/NL/JA/ef.

Many users heavily rely on various proxies for solar activity, such as the MgII index for the UV, or the daily sunspot area for sunspot darkening. Unfortunately, many of these quantities suffer from outages or outliers, which impedes their routine use for event analysis or for doing statistics.

However, all of these quantities are correlated, which opens the way for reconstructing at least part of the missing information. We use a recent Bayesian and multiscale method and show how the data gaps (from days to months) can be filled in with high fidelity, using the correlation. The results can be tested by bootstrapping. For several proxies such as the MgII and CaK indices, the reconstruction error is comparable to the uncertainty of the observations.

Based on this approach, we provide an online database of daily values of >12 solar proxies from 1978 till today, without any data gaps and including confidence intervals. This work was partly supported by COST action ES1005 and by the FP7 ATMOP project.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are very important in terms of space weather because they can be highly geoeffective. As part of the FP7 project COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: forecasting the space weather impact), a statistical analysis is being carried out in order to investigate the impact of CME parameters and their associations to geomagnetic storms.

A list of 225 front-sided, flare associated CMEs, with a minimal speed of 400 km/s, were randomly selected from the LASCO/SOHO catalog and associated with a specific Dst (disturbance storm time) index. This way a sample was made containing both geoeffective, non-geoeffective and CMEs which missed the Earth. The last was derived using the in-situ data and CME-ICME-Dst list made by Richardson&Cane (2010).

Statistical analysis was then applied to detect relationships between CME parameters, such as speed, width, source region location, brightness, and the Dst value. In case of flare related CMEs, the X-ray intensity and class were also included. We also investigated how much the occurrence of multiple CMEs increases the probability of large Dst values.

Bivariate as well as multivariate analysis currently are being set up and tested. The bivariate analysis focuses on the probability distributions of Dst depending on the CME (or flare) characteristics. The multivariate analysis develops models using logistic regression and decision trees. Models are evaluated using resampling techniques.

This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

For more than a decade, the ISES Regional Warning Center Brussels for space weather forecasting at the SIDC of the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) has been providing daily space weather forecasts. As part of the FP7 project AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space), ROB has started a thorough statistical evaluation to assess the quality of the past and current forecasts of the RWC. This procedure will from now on be applied routinely as constant quality control.

Forecasts of fundamental space weather parameters as the K value (the local geomagnetic index), the 10.7 cm radio flux and solar flaring probabilities are under evaluation. Quality of forecasts is compared to that of common numeric models as persistence, 27 day recurrence and linear regression models. The system has been designed to facilitate embedding new forecasting models in the future.

Descriptive model statistics, residual plots and conditional plots between forecasts and observations are produced in any time period, such as on a monthly and yearly basis or in periods of high or low solar activity. This allows us for example to detect the influence of solar activity on the confidence level of the forecasts. This analysis aids to identify the strong and weak points of RWC forecasting as well as those of the models considered. As such, it creates the opportunity to continuously reevaluate and increase the reliability of space weather forecasting.

This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project AFFECTS (263506).

At high latitudes, disturbances in the ionosphere frequently disrupts satellite-based services, including the GNSS-based positioning services of the Norwegian Mapping Authority (NMA).

NMA has developed a real-time ionosphere monitoring application based on data from our network of more than 100 GNSS ground receivers, which are distributed over the Norwegian mainland and islands, covering the region from 20°W to 30°E and 55°N to 80°N.

Both the real-time and the archived results are available through a publicly available website. Here we present the website itself and its various data products. Examples are given for different ionospheric conditions to show the use of each data product. Current data products include VTEC, GIVE and ROTI maps (2-dimensional; longitude and latitude), and time series of ROTI for selected regions.

The paper analyzes the variations of geomagnetic activity in order to create the foundations of the method of prediction the solar flare activity on the base of ground observations. There is shown that the closer to the start of proton flare the bigger amplitude of long-period (T>20 min) oscillation power of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field and X-ray emission. We examined the differences in the behavior of long-term oscillation power of geomagnetic field observed by stations of different latitudes. It is compared the prediction quality using different approach to the choice of prognostic parameters. An algorithm for prediction of geoeffective solar flares is presented. The algorithm is checked on the base of the actual geomagnetic data.

A general picture of the occurrence of ionospheric storms as function of local time, season and location is known from numerous studies over the past 50 years. Nevertheless, it is not yet possible to say how the ionosphere will actually respond to a given space weather event because the measurements of the onset time, location of maximum perturbation, amplitude and type of storm (positive or negative) deviate much from the climatology. However, statistical analyses of numerous storm events observed in the Total Electron Content (TEC) since 1995 enable to estimate and predict a most probable upcoming perturbed TEC over Europe based on ACE observations and forecasts of geomagnetic activity. A first approach will be presented in this paper.
The forecast of perturbed TEC is part of the Forecast System Ionosphere build under the umbrella of the FP7 project AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communication Through Space). It aims to help users mitigating the impact on communication systems.

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement no 263506.

The influence of solar processes on the state of near-earth space is constantly the object of serious study. First of all the solar radiation effect the parameters of the ionosphere and ionizing processes in it. The basic level indicator of the ionized particles is the critical frequency of the reflection of radio signal during sounding of ionosphere f₀F2.
The proposed study is based on the data of regular observations of critical frequency f₀F2 during the cycle of solar activity (1975-1986).
The authors proposed the procedure of the detection of influence of CMEs on the differential parameters of the upper ionosphere as more sensitive in comparison with the traditional methods.
In the report the need of developing the original procedures for the conducting the real time experimental studies of the revealed effects for the purpose of their subsequent model explanation is shown.

A Forecast System Ionosphere (FSI) is developed as part of the FP7 AFFECTS project (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communication Through Space*, http://www.affects-fp7.eu/), lead by University Goettingen. It is intended to help European citizens mitigating the impact of space weather events on its communications systems.
For this purpose the FSI will operationally provide a prediction of space weather related geomagnetic and ionospheric perturbations for Europe. Solar observations and measurements are used for forecasting of geomagnetic activity and Total Electron Content (TEC). Additionally, high latitude geomagnetic monitoring and early warning for GNSS users is incorporated in the FSI. The FSI is developed as a subsystem of the SWACI service (http://swaciweb.dlr.de/), running at the DLR in Neustrelitz, using its approved system components. AFFECTS partners are contributing to the FSI either by provision of data or by delivering processing modules.
This presentation will present the layout and system architecture of the FSI, describing the data input, processing, checking, archiving and output of the FSI. The actual status of work and the output of currently running processors will be demonstrated.

*) The AFFECTS consortium partners are University Goettingen, Royal Observatory of Belgium, National Academy of Sciences and National Space Agency of Ukraine, Fraunhofer IPM, University of Tromso, German Aeropace Center, Astrium GmbH and Space Weather Prediction Center of NOAA.

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement no 263506.

We present the concept, objectives and expected impact of the MAARBLE (Monitoring, Analyzing and Assessing Radiation Belt Loss and Energization) project, which is being implemented by a consortium of seven institutions (five European, one Canadian and one US) with support from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme.

The MAARBLE project employs multi-spacecraft monitoring of the geospace environment, complemented by ground-based monitoring, in order to analyze and assess the physical mechanisms leading to radiation belt particle energization and loss. Particular attention is paid to the role of ULF/VLF waves. A database containing properties of the waves is being created and will be made available to the scientific community. Based on the wave database, a statistical model of the wave activity dependent on the level of geomagnetic activity, solar wind forcing, and magnetospheric region will be developed.

Furthermore, we will incorporate multi-spacecraft particle measurements into data assimilation tools, aiming at a new understanding of the causal relationships between ULF/VLF waves and radiation belt dynamics. Data assimilation techniques have been proven to be a valuable tool in the field of radiation belts, able to guide 'the best' estimate of the state of a complex system.

Dimmings and EIT waves have been observed routinely in EUV images since 1996. They are closely associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and therefore provide useful information for early space weather alerts. On the one hand, automatic detection and characterization of dimmings and EIT waves can be used to gain better understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms. On the other hand, every dimming and EIT wave provides extra information on the associated front side CME, yielding improved estimates of the geo-effectiveness and arrival time of the CME.

The Novel EIT wave Machine Observation code (NEMO) was initially developed to automatically detect and analyze EIT waves and dimmings using images provided by the SOHO Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT). In the context of the Early Warning System of the AFFECTS FP7 project, the algorithm is currently being adapted at the Royal Observatory of Belgium to run in near real time on Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) data.

In this talk we present an overview of the initial NEMO results on SDO/AIA and sketch an outline of the near real time detection system.

This presentation will highlight the key thermal (~0 - 40 keV) space plasma measurements that are required for enhanced space weather scince capabilities in geosynchronous orbit. It will focus in particular on needs related to time resolution, energy range, fields-of-view and data products and quality. These are then discussed in terms of instrumental designs that would provide such capabilities with minimum resources.

This paper describes a preliminary design study to assess the possibility of flying a wideband ionospheric sounder cubesat experiment (WISCER). WISCER comprises a wideband (~100 MHz) beacon on a low cost cubesat designed to measure and evaluate the ionospheric channel in anticipation of the development of operational low frequency (i.e. around 450MHz) SAR systems.

There are considerable design challenges to be overcome in order to develop space based foliage penetrating (FOPEN) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) systems. One area of uncertainty is the impact of the ionosphere on the wideband radar signal, since the ionosphere is often the dominant degrading factor in these sorts of systems. The ionosphere controls the orbit choice, the selection of the transmitted waveforms and integration times, together with signal and image post-processing.
The WISCER wideband beacon will only be operated over 2 equatorial receive stations and only during the main scintillation period (i.e. post-sunset, pre-midnight). The main receiver site is assumed to be Ascension Island and a secondary receiver site on Kwajalein Atoll (Marshall Islands) has also been considered. It is assumed that WISCER will operate for a minimum of nominally one year.

The design approach has been conservative: a high level of sub-system integration has not been assumed; off-the-shelf components and sub-systems have been considered for use wherever possible; the power budget has been developed on the basis of using both a prime and secondary ground station; and the use of a class A amplifier has been assumed. Even with these constraints the preliminary mass, volume and power budgets are achievable and there remains scope for optimisation.

The antenna remains a challenging area of the WISCER design. However, two candidate antennas have been identified. They exploit different electrical and mechanical designs and therefore provide some mitigation of development risks.

Some level of thermal control will be required during the operation of the sounder. A large amount of waste heat will be generated and it is likely that it will not be possible to remove this quickly enough from the satellite to achieve thermal equilibrium. Consequently some form of thermal storage will be required.

Space Weather Awareness is a crucial factor in the field of airborne radiation monitoring since solar radiation storms can significantly affect measurement results. For instance, a Solar Particle Event (SPE) can lead to an additional contribution to the radiation exposure of aircrew at aviation altitudes, which is generated by interactions of primary high-energetic particles of cosmic origin with atoms of the Earth's atmosphere.

The poster presents a case study of a measuring flight performed by the German Aerospace Center on 23rd March 2011, twelve days after the nuclear disaster of Fukushima, where large amounts of radioactive isotopes were released and spread across the entire globe. The flight aimed at gaining information about and samples from the radioactively unpolluted atmosphere at aviation altitudes in Germany. Radiation protection of aircrew and scientists required online-monitoring of the dose rate aboard the research aircraft in order to detect potential elevated airborne radioactivity and prevent the aircraft from contamination.

The fact that two days before the measuring flight NOAA had issued an alert due to a solar radiation storm, which indicated the possibility of an event that could lead to increased dose rates at aviation altitudes as well, required the permanent observation of the space weather situation in order to attribute a possible additional contribution to either a space weather event or the nuclear accident.

The population of relativistic electrons in the radiation belts is highly dynamic. Since these electrons can be hazardous to both spacecraft and humans the prediction of the electron flux throughout the radiation belts is an active area of research. The EU-fp7 project SPACECAST has been providing forecasts of the high energy electron flux using physics-based models since 1st March 2012 and is also undertaking research to improve the forecasts. This research has produced a better model for chorus diffusion, a method for including the location of the last closed drift shell in the model and improved starting condition for the model runs. We present results illustrating the effect of these improvements on the forecasts produced with radiation belt models, and evaluate the improvements using comparisons with data and skill scores.

The Solar Timelines Viewer for AFFECTS (STAFF) is a dynamical online viewer that provides a whole range of timelines related to solar activity and space weather. It is currently being developed at the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) as part of the FP7 project AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space).

STAFF has been designed to allow the user to view and compare timelines from different data sources in any time interval, ranging from real time to the full archive of past data. STAFF is a web-based application based on JSP, HTML, CSS and javascripts and is built on top of a PostGreSql database.

Since it is tailored to space weather operations, STAFF provides easy and dynamical access to real time space weather timelines such as GOES X-ray curves, ACE data and geomagnetic indices. It also serves solar activity timelines such as the International Sunspot Number and the F10.7 radio flux. Furthermore, STAFF features some brand new proxies extracted automatically from coronal EUV images (AIA, SWAP, EIT), like the total flux observed in the telescope passband, active region area, and total EUV intensity within active regions. We present an overview of the STAFF viewer, its ease of use and some of its timelines.

A new version of the semi-empirical DTM (Drag Temperature Model) thermosphere model is developed in the frame of the FP7 European program ATMOP (Advanced Thermosphere Modelling for Orbit Prediction). In the currently used semi-empirical density models (DTM2009, MSIS, JB2008) the geomagnetic forcing is characterized using geomagnetic indices derived from ground based measurement: am indices, ap indices and Dst index respectively. In this work, we test new geomagnetic indices, with a better representation of the geomagnetic activity using Magnetic Local Time (MLT) sectors, or an improved time resolution. This test is carried out using total mass density derived from acceleration measurements onboard CHAMP and GRACE satellite, in the 370-490 km altitude range. We consider intense geomagnetic storms (max of am>120 nT) that occurred between August 2001 and December 2010. Density variations are organized according to local time and geomagnetic coordinates to assess the performance of the proxies that we consider in this study: K-derived 3-hour planetary (am) and MLT sector indices, new planetary and MLT sector rms based α indices

Coronal holes are key features to understand geoeffective events involving high speed streams. The properties of the coronal holes are analysed, such area and magnetic field, through AIA 193A images and HMI longitudinal magnetograms. We study the statistical properties of the magnetic field of the coronal holes. Interacting active regions in the surroundings of the coronal holes, where CMEs are ejected, are also considered for study.

2Whistlers are VLF (3-30 kHz) emissions initiated by lightning, propagating along magnetic field lines, observed on ground and in space. Whistler wave analysis is an effective tool for studying the plasmasphere.
Whistlers acquire particular frequency-time characteristics while they propagate through the magnetospheric plasma, and in particular through the plasmasphere. Their propagation time depends on the plasma density along their propagation paths. It is possible to derive the plasmaspheric electron density distribution from these propagation times.
We therefore have started a project to detect whistlers with VLF measurements. A VLF antenna has been installed in early 2011 in Humain, Belgium (50.11°N, 5.15°E). The VLF antenna is made of two perpendicular magnetic loops, oriented North-South and East-West, and with an area of approximately 50 m² each. This antenna is part of AWDAnet, the Automatic Whistler Detector and Analyzer system's network. This network covers low, mid and high magnetic latitudes, including conjugate locations.
We use the AWDA system to retrieve automatically electron density profiles from whistler measurements made in Belgium. In this poster, the first results of whistler occurrence are shown.

System neutral atmosphere-ionosphere shows high variability in a broad period range. Wave-like oscilations covering gravity, tidal and planetary wave domains are subject of the contribution. Time series of temperature, neutral wind, electron concentration describe temporal variability of the neutral atmosphere-ionosphere system. Within wave-like wave bursts detected in time series of ionospheric and/or neutral atmospheric parameters we locate common coherent structures that significantly contribute to the atmospheric regions coupling.

The study of space plasma discontinuity regions and their associated current sheets plays a key role in understanding the physical mechanisms responsible for the transfer of mass and energy in space plasmas. The propagation of the solar wind discontinuities and their interaction with the terrestrial magnetosphere is a key aspect of space weather. In this paper we investigate the kinetic structure of a tangential discontinuity using particle-in-cell simulations and comparison with kinetic models. Maxwell's equations are used to compute the self-consistent electromagnetic field on a one-dimensional spatial grid having a step size of the order of Debye length. The simulation domain is divided into two regions filled with two different plasma populations. The initial magnetic field is uniform inside the simulation domain. Spatial and temporal variations of the plasma parameters and electromagnetic field have been analyzed and discussed. Numerical results obtained confirm the formation of a tangential discontinuity at the boundary between two magnetized plasmas having different macroscopic properties. Both ion- and electron-dominated layers are evidenced. The transition profiles obtained using particle-in-cell simulations are in good agreement with the results given by theoretical kinetic models and shows the respective role of electrons and ions to establish the transition profile, the dominant current carrier and the spatial scale of the discontinuity. The particle-in-cell simulations provide additional details about the stability of the transition layer that complement the quasi-stationary kinetic modeling.

We present a statistical study of the role of denoising on the propagation accuracy of solar wind discontinuities. The term discontinuity denotes here rapid changes in the direction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). A number of 151 discontinuities are propagated based on different models from a solar wind monitor, the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft, located at the L1 libration point, in the upstream solar wind, to a target near the Earth's magnetopause, the Cluster quartet of spacecraft. The predicted propagation times are compared with the observed ones to obtain a quantitative measure of the method's accuracy. We compare different methods to estimate the normal of discontinuities: the Cross Product method (CP), the Minimum Variance Analysis of the magnetic field (MVAB) and the Constrained Minimum Variance Analysis of the magnetic field, referred to in the literature as MVAB0 where the predicted normal is constrained to be perpendicular to the mean magnetic field. Estimations of the normal using single spacecraft methods, especially the minimum variance based methods, are known to be sensitive to small-scale fluctuations and wave activity superposed on the discontinuity. Instead of using the usual methods of frequency filtering, which smear out the discontinuities and reduce the number of data points, we use wavelet denoising to remove this "noise". The wavelet denoising methods are especially suited for removing low-amplitude, high-frequency noise, while leaving unchanged the high-amplitude, low-frequency parts of the signal and also preserving the time resolution. The results show that by fine tuning the model and wavelet denoising parameters we can improve significantly the prediction accuracy. We also found that, even for well defined discontinuities, the model and denoising parameters have to be adapted to every event in order to obtain accurate propagation delays. In other words, we do not find any fixed set of parameters for which to obtain an accurate propagation delay for most of the discontinuities in our data set.

Ionosondes underwent significant improvements since their invention in 1924. At the beginning, ionospheric sounders measured only vertical profile of electron concentration. Contemporary modern digital ionosondes usually provide ionospheric drift measurement as a part of the routine monitoring in addition to the classical vertical ionospheric sounding (ionogram measurement). Ionospheric plasma motion monitoring has a large potential to improve our understanding of an ionospheric dynamics. However the measurement quality is highly variable. In the paper we deal with conditions and assumptions necessary for the correct drift velocity estimation, particularly with differences in measurements for E and F region. Correct and accurate drift velocity estimation requires recording of a sufficient number of reflection points during the measurement. We discuss how to obtain good quality drift data and how to estimate data quality. Large number of recorded drift measurements are eliminated from further use for drift velocity estimation due to low number of detected reflection points. Our analysis done for a large data set strongly supports the idea that even low number of recorded reflection points may indicate an expressive horizontal stratification of the ionosphere. For our study we used drift data collected in 2006 from a mid-latitude station Pruhonice. Data were collected during a period of low geomagnetic and solar activity. We show statistical properties of drift velocity components for both E and F region. We illustrate the influence of geomagnetic activity on drift velocities on maximal daily value of F region horizontal component (geomagnetic activity is represented by Kp). We also show statistics for poor-quality data associated with horizontal stratification of ionosphere.

Present statistical models for the description of solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation in the inner heliosphere extrapolate fluences and peak intensities measured at 1 AU by using simple scaling laws on the heliocentric radial distance. In the Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project we have developed a statistical SEP model that makes use of the results of a shock-and-particle propagation physics based model to estimate peak intensities and fluences from 0.2 to 1.6 AU. We used this physics based model to derive the radial variation of the peak intensity and fluence for six SEP event case studies.

The SEPEM statistical model is based on 1 AU cleaned data from 1973 to 2009. We have determined the solar origin of the 204 SEP events (compound and isolated) of the SEPEM Reference Event List that occurred between January 1988 and December 2006. We have analyzed their intensity and maximum energy attained. Then, we have classified these events into the six different types in order to assign to them a radial dependence for the peak intensity and the fluence.

We discuss here the resulting event spectra and the application of this model to estimate the fluence over an interplanetary mission travelling to the inner heliosphere like the Solar Orbiter. We compare these results with those obtained for a mission at 1 AU of the same duration, and with those obtained by applying the current ECSS guidelines for distances away from 1 AU. We also comment on possible improvements to the physical based model that will be studied in the scope of the FP7 SPACECAST project. The statistical model and the method we present here are being implemented on the SEPEM server.

Solar flares, the most energetic events in the solar system, play an important role in space weather. X-class flares can lead to dramatical increases in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and soft X-ray (XUV) emissions, and also in longer wavelengths. Many of the fundamental processes involved in the flare onset and evolution, however, are still partly understood; this impacts the evaluation of the geoeffectiveness of such flares. Among these is the ordering of the acceleration processes during the flaring event. Here we consider an information-theoretic approach that is based on the Granger causality to investigate the correlation between the evolution of the solar spectral irradiance as observed in different wavelengths from the XUV and EUV, and using various instruments (GOES, SDO/EVE, PROBA2/LYRA). Using this approach we reveal in the energy flows between different solar atmospheric layers. These results can be used as clues for successful flare modeling in space weather prediction and nowcast operational services.

PICASSO is a 3U cubesat project of the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy and the Royal Observatory of Belgium. It is planned to fly on the QB50 precursor mission in a quasi-polar orbit at about 500 km altitude and thus the expected orbital lifetime is at least two years. The payload of PICASSO includes three independent scientific instruments:
VISION, a visible and near-infrared hyper-spectral imager, m-NLP, a multi-needle Langmuir probe and ìBOS, a micro-bolometer oscillation system.
Given the high inclination, the multi-needle Langmuir probe developed by the University of Oslo will allow a global monitoring of the ionospheric electron density. Therefore, PICASSO will provide opportunities to study relevant space weather processes such as the ionosphere-plasmasphere coupling, the dynamics of the subauroral ionosphere and related magnetospheric processes, the aurora and the polar cap arcs, the ionospheric electrodynamics via coordinated observations with EISCAT's heating radar and the turbulent ionospheric processes.
We provide a description of the nano-satellite PICASSO with an emphasis on the multi-needle Langmuir probe and its applications for space weather studies.

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) constitute the ground end of the complicated space weather chain originating from the Sun. In power grids, GICs can lead to half-cycle saturation of power transformers and generate significant amounts of odd and even harmonic distortions in the system current and voltages. As a result, protection and control devices are led to incorrect or undesired operation unintentionally isolating equipment at time when critical support to the system is needed. In order to know the vulnerability of the Spanish power network to space weather disturbances, historical records of impacts and actions reported by grid operators in isolating components, such as transmission lines, transformers, capacitor banks in the REE power network, have been analyzed and compared with different geomagnetic indices and local magnetic field measurements. This presentation shows the results of this study.

R12 is the most widely used index for Ionospheric predictions, it is the twelve-month smoothed relative sunspot number (SSN) calculated from the international solar index Ri. It is known the great difficulty in predicting the maximum level of R12 for the next solar cycle using different methods, even when the cycle has begun and its rate of change is really in progress. As Presnel W. D.(2008) shows, more than 50 predictions with big differences in amplitude (from 40 to 185) were found for solar cycle 24, which was the 3rd cycle predicted by an international commision.

The international interest to improve the predictions for R12 maximum is due to the well known practical use in satellite signal transmission risks and in HF radio communications, the Space Weather Centers provide this service. Hathaway D. H., Wilson and Reichmann (1999) showed different methods used for predictions of solar maximum based on statistical or precursor techniques and mathematical function, and presented a combined method for Solar Cycle activity forecast of cycle 23.

It is valuable to compare predictions with data, in particular the shape of evolution of the maximum which is very variable. In this report we first compare yearly and smooth SSN data since 1700, to present a method to simulate yearly SSN data as a signal transmited in radio communications, with a carrier of 22 year period modulated by long periods of 33, 55, and 110 years, observed in the maxima and minima of the 11 year solar cycles. We understand that such periodic characteristics are related to physical phenomenon as say flux-transport dynamo-based tool presented by Dikpati M, G. de Toma and P.A. Gilman (2006). We verify periods using FFT analysis and compare with previous studies. The use of amplitudes and phase shifts properly chosen, really improve the results. Despite the method shows unstable fitness, it follows the shape of evolution of the maximum of solar cycles, except in the minimum of the 110 year period. As we are just near one of such minimum, the method used in this work let us expect similar amplitudes to those observed about 1900 for the next cycles 24-25 , that is, R12 around (50-100).

We present the scientific objectives and model payload of the Space Weather and Ultraviolet Solar Variability Microsatellite Mission (SWUSV), as proposed to CNES and ESA (Small-size Mission) this year. Mission is designed around an innovative far ultraviolet full disk imaging telescope, narrow bands ultraviolet filter radiometers and a simultaneous Earth Radiative budget ensemble for new achievements and key challenges for further advances. In particular, the ambitions of this new program are:
- The Space Weather including the prediction and detection of major eruptions and CMEs (Lyman-alpha and Hertzberg continuum, 200-220 nm, imaging);
- Solar forcing/infulence on the climate through radiation and their interactions with the local stratosphere (UV spectral irradiance from 180 to 400 nm by bands of 20 nm, Lyman-Alpha and CN bandhead, 385-390 nm);
- Simultaneous radiative budget of the Earth, UV to IR, with an accuracy better than 1% in differential.
The mission builds upon the success and skills of two previous European Space Weather related missions: PICARD/CNES and PROBA-2/ESA. A CNES Research and Technology program has been started on New Ultraviolet Telescopes key technologies to guarantee the mission success.

ACE L1 solar wind data are analyzed for CME events that have caused medium to major geomagnetic storms at times after the twin STEREO spacecraft reached a sufficient separation angle with respect to the Sun-Earth line to provide dedicated tracking of CMEs from Sun to Earth. The CME coronal parameters derived from analysis based on the remote sensing observations of the STEREO/SECCHI imagers are extrapolated to the inner boundary of the WSA-Enlil code to model the CME evolution to L1. The model results are compared with those derived from analysis of the ACE in situ ICME parameters and are used for calibration of the WSA-Enlil code in a testbed manner. This study presents the basic concepts of the testbed studies and first results.

The 3-View CME Analysis Tool ("CAT") technique developed at the Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, CO, is a coronal analysis tool through which the topology, direction of propagation and speed of CMEs can be analyzed in near real-time from multipoint observations provided by the STEREO and SOHO coronagraphs. In this study we apply the CAT technique to a set of bright CMEs viewed from different angles that had been already analyzed through the GCS (Graduated Cylindrical Shell) model. We present results of the comparison of the different analysis techniques for the set of CMEs studied and summarize implications for their operational use.

Basic research on Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) carried out at the Institute of Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing (IAASARS) of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) within the framework of the COMESEP project is presented in this work. Two SEP events taking place in December and August 2001 were identified as having an initial ratio of Fe/O > 0.8 and were selected for an investigation into SEP sources, and acceleration processes operating on SEPs in terms of solar flares, ICMEs and their associated shocks. Ulysses/COSPIN/LET and WIND/EPACT/LEMT data were used for these events. During the two events transient Fe/O enhancements were initially observed at both WIND and Ulysses although one or both spacecraft were not 'well-connected' to the flare. The observations demonstrate that the initial Fe/O enhancements can be better understood as a transport effect driven by the different mass-to-charge ratios of Fe and O, rather than a direct flare component. These observations also provide a potential constraint on models in which SEPs reach high heliolatitudes by cross-field diffusion. Furthermore, we have carried out the first detailed examination and comparison of elemental spectra and composition in the late decay phase of the events in the so-called 'reservoir' regions, between spacecraft widely separated in latitude, as well as in longitude and radial distance in the Heliosphere. Implications of the observations for models of SEP transport are also discussed. Furthermore, the study of the impact of the large-scale structure of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) on the SEP profiles and its Space Weather implications will be presented, based on the examination of the Pitch Angle Distributions (PADs) of non-relativistic electrons and the inference of the presence of a reflecting boundary of SEPs, resulting to the enhancement of the duration of high-energy proton intensities, causing the so-called "reservoir" effect. These activities will provide the basis for future solar missions such as Solar Orbiter, in which IAARAS/NOA participates as a Co-Investigator (EPD instrument). The above research is carried out within the framework of the COMESEP project in which IAASARS/NOA is currently strongly involved. The COMESEP project is a collaborative project funded by the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Union which sets out to develop tools for forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) radiation storms and geomagnetic storms. It is foreseen that these forecasting tools will be incorporated into an automated operational European Space Weather Alert system.

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).and has also been supported by NASA under grants NNH09AK79I and NNX09AU98G (AJT).

During the first half of the current year (2012) as we were progressing towards the rising phase of solar cycle 24, a certain number of geomagnetic storms of moderate intensity occurred due to coronal mass ejections and solar wind streams affecting Earth's magnetic field. These storms occurred throughout the year. In this paper, we present the ionospheric response during these storms using ionosonde and GPS data over Europe. Variation of ionospheric characteristics is studied in correlation with geomagnetic indices to reveal temporal progression during these events.

The solar inner corona below 2 Rsun is an important region of restructuring of magnetic field and formation of the solar wind streams. The SWAP telescope has advantages to study the corona in comparison with similar instruments like EIT/SOHO and AIA/SDO, because it's spectral band (174 A) is the most sensitive to the coronal EUV emission at temperature ~ 1 MK and it can be off-pointed to enlarge the field of view in the desired direction. Recently it was shown that large-scale coronal ray-like structures observed by SWAP may be associated with outward plasma flows from ARs detected by Hinode/EIS in the Doppler shifted Fe ion lines. We report on the results of the coordinated SWAP-EIS study of evolution of the coronal structures associated with plasma outflows from ARs 11112, 11176 and 11309 in the Carrington rotations CR 2102, 2108 and 2115 (October 2010, March-April and October 2011). The movies showing the off-limb corona observed by SWAP in these rotations as a function of time and height are presented. In the course of rising solar activity the extended coronal structures detected by SWAP above the ARs changed from nearly radial or super-radial rays emerging from single AR in CR 2102 to parts of helmet-like structures in the streamer's bases in CR 2108 and CR 2115. In all ARs EIS detected localized outflows, in two last cases the outflow regions were tracked during their rotation from the eastern limb to te western limb showing that most of the time the outflux density remained nearly constant. The outflows and coronal structures were correlated with open magnetic field lines given by the PFSS extrapolation, white-light streamers and the ACE solar wind data projected to the source surface.

The background solar wind characteristic is a key ingredient for the study of CME propagation in interplanetary (IP) space, in particular for the prediction of ICME arrival time and arrival speed at Earth. Since in-situ measurements of the background solar wind are only available at 1 AU, one has to rely on heliospheric models and/or empirical relationships to derive the solar wind distribution in IP space. We tested different empirical and MHD models to predict the solar wind characteristics at 1 AU, including ENLIL/MAS, ENLIL/WSA, and an empirical model based on the size and location of coronal holes on the Sun. The modeled solar wind parameters were compared with in-situ measurements from ACE and Wind at 1 AU for two years of low ICME activity during the last solar minimum. We found, that the general structure of the background solar wind is well reproduced by the models, with the best results being obtained for the solar wind speed. However, the predicted arrival times of high speed solar wind streams have typical uncertainties of the order of 1 day. The ICME propagation in IP space is basically governed by two forces: the propelling Lorentz force and the drag force exerted by the ambient solar wind flow. We applied the derived background solar wind distribution to study the interplanetary propagation of selected coronal mass ejections which were tracked all the way from the Sun to 1 AU in remote-sensing observations of the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) Heliospheric Imagers and in-situ plasma and magnetic field measurements. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

In statistical study of the Earth's foreshock we use multi-point observations from the THEMIS-ARTEMIS mission and compare to WIND solar wind monitor with motivation to estimate different factors influencing evolution of solar wind. Most studies of the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction rely on L1 observations that are propagated toward the Earth assuming negligible evolution of upstream parameters along the solar wind path. But in fact there is most pronounced effect of a systematic deceleration of the average solar wind speed with a decreasing distance to the bow shock that is controlled by the level of magnetic field fluctuations and by the flux of reflected and accelerated particles in the foreshock region. We can conclude that the reflected particles not only excite the waves of large amplitudes but also modify mean values of quantities measured mainly in the foreshock but also in an un-perturbed solar wind.

The highest energy (GeV and above) protons in the solar energetic particle (SEP) events may interact with the Earth's atmosphere to produce sufficient intensity of secondary particles that can be detected by neutron monitors at ground level, causing the ground level enhancement (GLE) event. Since high-energy protons represent "hard" radiation that is a significant hazard to astronauts and equipment in space, while secondary neutrons threaten passengers and crew of aircraft on polar routes, understanding where, when, and how the acceleration of these particles takes place is important in space weather forecasting. In view of a long-lasting divergence between the estimated path lengths travelled by solar electrons and ions from their release site near the Sun to the 1 AU observer, we have examined the divergence by using the Wind/3DP/SST electron and Wind/EPACT/LEMT ion data for the GLE events during the solar cycle 23. Assuming that the onset time of metric type II radio bursts is the solar release time of non-relativistic electrons, we have found that the deduced path length of low-energy (~ 27 keV) electrons is consistent with the ion path length deduced by Reames (2009) from the onset time analysis, indicating that SEPs in GLE events should be accelerated by the coronal mass ejection-driven shock waves. In addition, we have observed the increase of electron path lengths with increasing electron energies. The increasing rate is correlated with the pitch angle distribution (PAD) of peak electron intensities locally measured, with a higher rate corresponding to a broader PAD. The correlation indicates that the path length enhancement is due to the interplanetary scattering experienced by first arriving electrons.
The observed path length consistency implies that the magnetic flux tube, along which particles transport, could be stable during a time period of > 5 hours. Therefore, it is possible to use the electron observation at the event onset to predict the duration property of high-energy proton intensities during the later decay phase. The suggested prediction could be important in space weather forecasting.

Reames, D. V. 2009, ApJ, 693, 812
(This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

The Space-Weather Awareness is usually focused at raising awareness of the potential impact of space weather on critical infrastructures in view of the growing risk of technological catastrophic events.
The impact of Space-Weather on human health is either totally neglected or underestimated. At the same time, it is already accepted that a subset of the human population (10-15%) is a bona fide hypersensitive and predisposed to adverse health problems due to geomagnetic variations and that extremely high as well as extremely low values of geomagnetic activity seem to have adverse health effects. Knowing how and how much the space weather can influence the daily health status of people is of extreme practical importance.
The presentation is focused on space weather awareness, i.e. the cross point between space weather effects on human health and eHealth issues. It will outline what is necessary to be taken into consideration based on the achievements of the TeleSCoPE project (Telehealth Services Code of Practice for Europe) and how eHealth can contribute to space weather awareness for the benefits of citizens.

We present stable and continuous VLF observations of the remarkable sequence of early March 2012 (0306-09) C to X class solar X-ray flares, and flare induced D-region electron density enhancements, modelled on the ground of the respective VLF-GOES15 datasets. The majority of the prominent flares in the period 20120306-09 happened at early UT, therefore, the highly suitable, completely sunlit, long, low-noise, transmitter- receiver paths were chosen for their observation: i.e. from transmitters NPM/21.4 kHz (Hawai'i) and NWC/19.8 kHz (North West Cape, Australia) to receivers at Casey (66.28 S, 110.32 E) and at Scott Base (77.83 S, 166.66 E) in the Antarctic region.

To deduce D-region electron density enhancements induced by solar flares, we apply the N(t,h) model, based on the electron continuity equation for the globally electroneutral and diffusion free lower ionosphere. The transient ionization regime is described by the production rate q(t)= kI(t), driven by the dominant X-ray flux I(t) and the electron effective recombination coefficient α. The time delay by which the amplitude and phase extrema lag behind the flare flux maximum is a key observed input parameter which relates two characteristic electron density enhancements: the maximum value and value at the maximum flux. The proximity of these two N values (time delay is found to amount up to several minutes), sets a constraint for each particular flare, allowing the determination of either k or α, if one of them is known independently. For the relevant flare wavelength band 0.1-0.8 nm we have inferred the expression for the altitude variation of k from observed spectral data compiled by Allen (1965, Space, Sci. Rev. V.4, 91-122) and from the model calculations of q(h) (Osepian et al. 2009 Ann. Geophys., V.27, 3713–3724).

The model output is the electron density time-height profile, the span of the time dependence being governed by the flare duration (from some 20 min to several hours), whereas the height range is set by the physical characteristics built in the model and pertaining to the region from 60 to 90 km. The results thus obtained, are validated by the independent and well-known Long Wavelength Propagation Capability (LWPC) code. For the offset of disturbed amplitude and phase enhancements, the values for the quiet day 20120228 preceding the flare period have been used. Good agreement between the two approaches (i.e. both predicting for 1X class flare enhancement of electron density at 60 km height of two orders of magnitude with respect to quiet day values) is taken as a starting point for studying the height - dependence of aeronomic parameters in flare conditions.

Earth's ionosphere plays a very important role in the solar-terrestrial processes. Its dynamics,
that is an important element of the Space Weather, is strongly influenced by solar activity. The actual state of the ionosphere is described by set of various parameters, and its nowcasting and forecasting is rather complex. The exact monitoring of those parameters needs both the sophisticated data analysis and utilization of measurements performed by different missions. In that context POPDAT project is aimed at developing and deploying new methods of processing and representation of the ionosphere data received from the series of the completed ionospheric satellite missions. The output of the project is the Ionosphere Waves Service that will make third level data available for great number of scientists. It is expected that with its approach POPDAT will help to enhance our understanding of rich physical processes taking place in Earth's surroundings.

A new version of the program for calculation of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in power grids was developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute within the EURISGIC project (European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents). Successful validation of the model in 2012 makes it possible to estimate possible extreme values of GIC related with strong geomagnetic disturbances at former times. The geoelectric field was calculated using data from IMAGE magnetometer stations in North Europe and 1-D block models of the ground conductivity.
Temporal evolution of GIC was estimated using the regional model of the power grid at NW of Russia. Calculated extreme values of GIC at selected transformer substations can be used for analyses of the impacts of strong geomagnetic storms on high-voltage systems.

BIOMASS is a candidate Earth Explorer mission under consideration by the European Space Agency (ESA). It comprises a P-band (435 MHz) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) in a low earth orbit and its principal mission objectives are to measure forest biomass density and height with near-global coverage. Secondary objectives include imaging of sub-surface geology and ice sheets, and measurement of bare earth topography under dense vegetation. BIOMASS will measure the radar backscatter intensity in four polarization channels, HH, HV, VH and VV, each representing a combination of the transmitted and received linear polarizations. The biomass density will be determined using a Bayesian approach that combines a regression-based estimate from the polarimetric covariance matrix with an indirect estimate derived from forest height using allometric relations.

The ionosphere introduces a Faraday rotation (FR) to the plane of polarization, given by Ω=KB_||TEC/f², where K is a constant, f is the radio frequency, B_|| is the component of the geomagnetic field along the ray path and TEC is the (slant) total electron content. If uncorrected, FR transfers backscattered energy between the four polarization channels, thus affecting the biomass densities inferred from the measurements. An accurate estimate of FR is also required for calibrating the system using dedicated calibration targets.

Several algorithms [1-4] have been proposed to estimate and correct FR in SAR images. However, the accuracy of the backscattering and covariance matrices derived from the measurements is limited by transmitter and receiver distortion (phase imbalance and cross-talk), additive noise (i.e. noise equivalent σ₀ (NESZ)) and, for some methods, errors in the independent estimate of FR, Ω₀, which is required to resolve a pi/2 ambiguity in the estimate of Ω (Ω₀ is derived from ionospheric models or GPS measurements of TEC, hence is affected by their accuracy). This paper quantifies the errors in FR correction for each algorithm by simulating SAR images of a forest scene with three levels of uniform biomass density. Images were produced with the ESA BIOMASS end-to-end radar simulator (BEES) [5] and corrupted with a large range of FR angles, cross-talk amplitudes and phases, NESZ and errors in the independent FR estimate. We conclude that with a suitable correction algorithm employing spatial averaging, FR may be corrected to within 0.5° for biomass densities between 50 and 350 t/ha, given NESZ of -24 dB and cross-talk of -24 dB, which are worse than the threshold values stipulated as BIOMASS system requirements.

The P-band BIOMASS radar would also be strongly susceptible to ionospheric scintillation - small-scale (< 20 km) fluctuations of the phase and amplitude of radar returns caused by scattering from ionospheric irregularities. This introduces sub-aperture scale fluctuations in the radar phase front, which corrupts the SAR impulse response function (IRF) and leads to coarser resolution, increased sidelobes, reduced main-lobe intensity and geometric shifts of the peak. Percentiles of these IRF metrics are determined using a climatological scintillation model for a range of conditions of solar and geomagnetic activity and for several BIOMASS SAR configurations employing single- and four-look strip-map modes of operation. Given a suitable choice of dawn-dusk orbit (with an ascending node between 0500 and 0740 local time) much of the strongest scintillation in the low-latitude post-sunset sector is avoided. The impacts of scintillation for forest regions are found to be negligible under all conditions except at high latitudes in the North American sector under high sunspot activity and during geomagnetic storms. Consequences for high-latitude ice monitoring are much more widespread.

REFERENCES
[1] Bickel S. H. and R. H. T. Bates, (1965), "Effects of Magneto-Ionic Propagation on the Polarization Scattering Matrix" Proc. IRE, Col. 53, pp.1089-1091.
[2] Chen, J. and S. Quegan, (2010) "Improved Estimators of Faraday Rotation in Spaceborne Polarimetric SAR Data," IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 7, (4), pp846-850.
[3] Freeman, A., (2004), "Calibration of Linearly Polarized Polarimetric SAR Data Subject to Faraday Rotation," IEEE Trans. Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 42, (8), pp1617-1624.
[4] Qi, R-Y, and Y-Q Jin, (2007), "Analysis of the Effects of Faraday Rotation on Spaceborne Polarimetric SAR Observations at P-Band", IEEE Trans. Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 45, (5), 1115-1122.
[5] López-Dekker et al. (2011), "BIOMASS End-to-End Mission Performance Simulator", International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS 2011), pp 4249-4252, 2011.

As part of the EU/FP7 project EURISGIC, a visualisation tool for geomagnetically induced currents have been created. This tool have been developed for the purpose of demonstrating GIC in the wide European power grid for a set of geomagnetic storms and artificial geoelectric field data.

Power grid data for Europe, consisting of substation coordinates, line- and transformer resistances, voltage levels etc, were collected and stored in a MySQL database. At present the database includes information of about 1800 transformer stations and 2400 high-voltage lines for more than 30 european countries.

The application consists of two main parts: a server-side application and a client-side web application. The power grid and GIC levels are visualised on an interactive map by the web-application, using Google Maps API and JavaScript code, that is available online at http://www.eurisgic.eu/. The GIC levels are calculated by Octave. The server-side application interact with the web-application and database and uses the JSON format for transmitting the data.

The tool is useful for demonstrating GIC but also as a test-platform for a stand-alone application aimed towards e.g. power companies, pipeline operators and universities.

Solar eruptions are associated with a variety of phenomena that occur in the low corona before, during, and after the onset of eruption. These phenomena include changes in magnetic configuration, flows, solar flares, the formation of post-flare loop arcades, EUV waves, and coronal dimmings. However, not every eruption is associated with all -- or in some cases -- any of these phenomena. The presence or absence of such signatures can be linked to different theoretical models of eruptions to help establish the mechanisms by which the eruption is initiated and driven.

To identify these CMEs without low coronal signatures, we compare CMEs from the CACTus catalog to the output of SoFAST (Solar Flare Automated Search Tool) based on observations from SWAP/PROBA2. Using STEREO observations, we can exclude the back-sided CMEs. We use this list to characterize the general properties of events without low coronal signatures and, from this list, select a few eruptions to study in detail using both observations and numerical models.

Solar eruptions without clear on-disk or coronal signatures can have important implications on space weather, since many early warning signs for significant space weather activity are not present in these events.  A better understanding of their initiation will significantly improve our ability to predict these space weather events.

The South African National Space Agency (SANSA) operates the Regional Warning Center (RWC) for Space Weather in Africa. The RWC is located within the Space Science Directorate of SANSA in Hermanus, South Africa. SANSA Space Science is a research facility for Space Science in South Africa, and operates a Space Weather Unit within its Research Group. Ground based geophysical data from distributed networks across Southern Africa and the South Atlantic are piped into the center along with satellite based data. The combination of ground and satellite based data is then used to produce information in a variety of formats depending on the needs. This paper will review the progress of the center for the past 2 years, present new measurements that are available for use by the center, and look at the applications that are currently being served within South Africa.

We use full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms taken by MDI/SOHO from May 25, 2003, at 00:00 UT to May 28, 2000, at 22:23 UT in order to study the magnetic helicity budget in active region NOAA 10365 which produced several M and X GOES class flares and coronal mass ejections. In particular, we perform a comparison between the estimation of the relative magnetic helicity determined from linear force free field extrapolations and the accumulation of the magnetic helicity in the active region measured by means of the magnetic helicity flux propagating through the photosphere from the convection zone. We found a good general agreement between the results obtained with these two independent methods of the trend of the magnetic helicity variation within the active region. However, there are some differences, which we discuss, in terms of the limitations of the employed approximations and methods.

The morphology of sunspot groups is an important ingredient of flare- productivity, mixed polarities can more probably provide unstable states leading to eruptive events than bipolar configurations with unambiguous separation. The developments of these two types of configurations are compared on a large statistical material taken from the new SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen sunspot Data) sunspot catalogue. The SDD contains the magnetic polarity data and allows a temporal resolution of 1.5 hours so high resolution time-profiles can be plotted for the entire active regions and any subsets. The time profiles will be compared with the recent theoretical curves of development and decay.

The FP7 COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: forecasting the space weather impact) project is developing tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. Here we present preliminary results on a statistical analysis of SEP events and their parent solar activity during Solar Cycle 23. The work aims to identify correlations between solar events and SEP events relevant for space weather, as well as to quantify SEP event probabilities for use within the COMESEP alert system.

The data sample covers the SOHO era and is based on the SEPEM reference event list [http://dev.sepem.oma.be/]. Events are subdivided if separate enhancements are observed in higher energy channels as defined for the list of Cane et al (2010). Relationships are investigated between solar flare parameters such as X-ray intensity and heliographic location on the one hand, and the probability of occurrence and strength of energetic proton flux increases on the other hand. The same exercise is performed using the velocity and central position angle of coronal mass ejections to examine their SEP productiveness. Relationships between solar event characteristics and SEP event spectral indices and fluences are also studied, as well as enhancements in ion fluxes measured by the SIS instrument on board the ACE spacecraft during the same event periods. Comparisons between different statistical methods will also be shown.

This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

Structural developments of sunspot groups have been followed prior to solar flares in order to find criteria for flare occurrence.
The observational basis of the study was the detailed sunspot catalogue, the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen sunspot Data) covering the time interval of MDI operations, 1996-2011. The highest values of horizontal magnetic field gradients and the speed of their build-up have been mapped and spatial-temporal correlations of these values with the flare onset have been studied. It can be demonstrated that the energetic flares are prepared by a substantial speed of magnetic field gradient increase.

We present a multiwavelength study of the 05 March 2012 solar eruptive event. The X1.1 flare from the NOAA AR 1429 near the north-east limb was accompanied by a full halo CME which propagated at a projected plane of the sky speed of about 1300 km/s. The eruption was associated with very strong radio flux in the metric range (650 000 sfu) and a long lasting type II radio burst. Almost nine hours of rather continuous radio emission of interplanetary type II burst, observed by STEREO/Waves A and B and WIND/Waves instruments, enable efficient tracking of the propagation of the shock wave observed from different perspectives. We track the shock wave up to 1 AU.
The CME propagation is reconstructed in three dimensions using SOHO/LASCO coronagraph observations and STEREO COR and HI instruments, and additionally modeled with the ENLIL/cone model. We compare the kinematics of the shock wave and the kinematics of the CME, both observed in three dimensions, with the aim of locating the part of the CME-driven shock which generates the radio emission.

The migration of solar active longitudes has been followed between 1977-2011 by using the DPD (Debrecen Photoheliographic Data) sunspot catalogue. The localization of the active zone allows to determine its width, activity variation and the flip-flop phenomenon. The extension of the active zone is varying, at lower activity level it is about 20-30 degrees wide. Around the maximum of the cycle it broadens and exhibits an activity variation with a period of about 1.3 years, similar to the period of radial torsional oscillation at the tachocline.

There is an increased desire to study cross-disciplinary science problems and space weather falls into this category. While special provisions must be made to gather data in a timely fashion to facilitate near-realtime space weather forecasting, to understand the causes of the effects requires the ability to study the relevant phenomena in more detail. If the resources that various projects have established could be harnessed in a more general Collaborative Environment then it would be must easier to undertake the necessary research.

The Coordination Action for the integration of Solar system Infrastructures and Science (CASSIS) is examining ways in which this could be achieved through improving the interoperability between capabilities through the adoption of standards related to metadata and service interfaces. The project involves nine partners from Europe and the US together with a number of associate groups.

CASSIS has been examining existing metadata and interfaces associated with the HELIO, SOTERIA and Europlanet RI projects to find ways where the metadata are inhibiting the ability to do joined-up science. It is now staring to extend this study and to discuss possible options with other projects with the ultimate aim of allowing existing capabilities to work more closely together.

We will report on the work that has been done so far and welcome discussion with and input from all interested projects.

As the activity level is increasing in the Arctic, there is also a growing focus on safety and efficiency of maritime and marine operations. Support systems based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and digital communication are being developed and taken into use. However, the environmental and space conditions in and over the Arctic opposes navigation and communication systems to challenges different from other places on Earth. Ionospheric and atmospheric effects, harsh weather conditions leading to rapid vessel movements, icing on antennas and other outdoor equipment, low elevation angles, poor groundbased communication infrastructure and system architectures are elements that have an effect on the total performance of the navigation and communication systems. MARENOR will develop a tool for total quality of assessment on such systems. This will be achieved through measurement campaigns and analysis.

The main objective of MARENOR is to quantify the system performance of the most common navigation and communication systems being used by maritime users in the High North. This will be achieved through measurement campaings and analyses of:

1. System architecture, 2. Signal propagation (L-, C-, Ku-, Ka-band),
3. Signal degradation factors (ionosphere, atmosphere, ship movements, position, icing on antennas).

The expected result is a model and tool for quality of system assessment on navigation and communication performance at high latitudes.

In this paper, we present an overview of the MARENOR project, summarise the processes that exhibit degrading effects on radio signals traversing the Earth's ionosphere and an outlook on possible correction mechanisms.

The Brazilian space weather program was created in 2008 with support from the Ministry of Science and Technology and aims to establish a Space Weather Information and Prediction Center in Brazil. For already have competencies in space science, INPE (Brazilian National Institute for Space Research) led the implementation of the program and has carried out actions in this direction for two of its divisions, the division of Space and Atmospheric Sciences and LAC - Laboratory for Computing and Applied Mathematics.

The first actions of the program were to incorporate the existing sensor networks and install new sensors necessaries for the Prediction Center Operation. As an example of embodiment, we can cite the merger of a network of a 18 GPSs stations under responsibility of Aeronomy Research Group. These GPS stations today are sources for generating maps of Ionosphere Scintillation on Brazilian territory. New sensors, such as a network of magnetometers, are being installed along the relevant geomagnetic lines.

In general, Brazilian Space Weather Systems must provide some typical computing activities like data collection, data processing, modeling (prediction) and dissemination of results. This includes consider some sources and data coming from: solar radio telescopes, ionosphere sounders/Ionossondes, GNSS receivers, Magnetometer arrays, optical imagers, radio frequency radars, sensors induced current, ionosphere modeling.

These stations generate data at different volumes and frequencies, which range from a few seconds to a few hours. Furthermore, it's necessary to receive such data in (near) real time to perform monitoring 24 hours per day, 7 days per week.

To meet this demand, the architecture for this system was created, allowing us to receive large volumes of data with low latency, processing-intensive applications and reducing the possibility of data loss. Establishing a central monitoring and a high level of application availability are also keys issues and are taken into consideration to define the system architecture.

The IT architecture of the Brazilian space weather program is based on a system called Pipeline, which allows the continuous flow of information from the instruments into the servers of the program. In this scheme an application suite implements the data pipeline, which is established for each instrument.

The application that is closest to the sensor is called collectorAgent and is responsible for receiving the device data, perform the initial processing to convert into a standard transmission format and send the data to the next Pipeline stage. CollectorAgent is also responsible for handling problems with data delivery. Each device connected to a sensor has an instance of the collectorAgent.

The next stage of the pipeline is implemented by an application called ReceptorGateway. This application is responsible for receiving data from collectorAgents. An instance of this application is running in our operations center. The "ReceptorGateway" forwards the data to the processing queues. Each queue stores the data of a different category of equipment. The inclusion of data from a specific queue triggers the execution of applications for processing each data type.

The third stage of the pipeline scheme are application that consume data from the queue and perform the processing data. These applications are called Loaders. In general, they perform the data reading, post processing and storage of records in the database. This process ensures standardization in data storage and allows better management of information.
The database stores the data collected by sensors, meta-data from instruments and acquisitions.

After storage of data in the database, another set of other applications are responsible for generating products to display data. The visualization system is web based. Currently viewing products that are already available are: Geomagnetic Components of the network of Magnetometers, K index of Magnetometers, Solar Radio Frequency Spectrometer, Ionospheric Scintillation, Scintillation Videos, Ionosonde Data and graphics from the Ionosonde foF2.

Some solar flares can release acoustic transients into the solar subsurface of the active regions that host them. Most of the acoustic power in these transients propagates something like 10-30 Mm beneath the photosphere before it is refracted back to the surface, where it creates a significant disturbance. In the strongest of these "sunquakes", the manifestation of this transient in helioseismic movies is an outwardly expanding surface ripple that becomes conspicuous about 20 minutes after the impulsive phase of the flare. Sunquakes offer a powerful diagnostic of wave propagation in the active region photosphere and of the structure and dynamics of the subphotosphere.
On September 13, 2005 an X1.5 flare erupted above the beta\gamma\delta AR NOAA 10808. The integrated GOES flux started to increase at 19:19 UT, reached the peak at 19:27 and ended one and a half hour later. Simultaneous with this fast rising ascending phase, we discovered a sun quake that had its maximum at 19:22 UT. We will present and discuss the associated Moreton wave as well as possible connection in between these emissions. We are also investigating a possible connection between this event and the halo CME that started at 20:00:05 UT.

We present and use a novel method to find the years with the largest amounts of fast solar wind streams at the Earth's orbit during the last 85 years, i.e., during most of the Modern Great Maximum (MGM) of solar activity. Two independent series of observations agree that the strongest solar wind speeds occurred in the declining phase of solar cycle 18. Since high solar wind speeds indicate strong solar polar magnetic fields, we find that cycle 19, which formed the peak of solar activity during MGM, was preceded by a time with the strongest poloidal field of MGM. According to the solar dynamo theory, strong solar polar magnetic fields (poloidal magnetic field) during a solar minimum should lead to an intense sunspot activity (toroidal magnetic field) during the next solar maximum. While this basic tenet has earlier been proven statistically, it has remained untested for the highest activity period of measured history until now.

The ionospheric weather products are provided at
http://www.izmiran.ru/services/iweather/. Relevant global maps in latitude [-90:2.5:90] and longitude [-180:5:180] of the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2), the peak height (hmF2), and a proxy of ionospheric activity (W-index) are reconstructed from GIM-TEC map with the International Reference Ionosphere model extended to the Plasmasphere, IRI-Plas. The foF2, hmF2, W-index and their deliverables are provided both in IONEX map format and in hourly-monthly files for selected locations of 60 observatories worldwide and their magnetic conjugate locations in the opposite hemisphere. Missed ionosonde observations are replaced by TEC-based predictions from the relevant map products of foF2 and hmF2. Daily update and forecast of above parameters is provided online with open access to the users community.

This study is supported by the joint grant from TUBITAK EEEAG 110E296 and RFBR 11-02-91370-CT_a.

A paper present a physical and structural scheme of an operational system for plasmasphere-ionosphere plasma description and forecast; a system to give information about possible disturbances phenomena that have an impact on current quality of the GPS signal. This information is necessary for warning about possible degradation of the signal and even loss signal lock what in consequence drastically decreased precise of positioning. Information about it is needed in near-real time. This type of maps are of interest to users in that they can provide information on prevailing tracking conditions, especially during disturbances. Moreover they could be useful for GNSS positioning accuracy improvement by applying weights to individual satellite to receiver.

Disturbances under specified circumstances, may be overcome by introducing a W index that describes the perturbation degree of the ionosphere. Such an index does not describe the exact propagation conditions at the measurement site, the derived quantity, a scaled index number, indicates the probability of a possible impact on radio systems used in communication, navigation and remote sensing.

Calculated forecast of indices and/or maps such as W show capabilities of the applied method description of the propagation conditions with sufficient accuracies during even stormy conditions.

During the latest years, availability of real-time ground magnetometer data has become a well-established routine. This has made it possible to provide up-to-date modelling of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC). Within the FP7/EURISGIC (European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents) project, such a nowcast test server is running for the Finnish and North-West Russian high-voltage power grids and the Finnish natural gas pipeline
(http://space.fmi.fi/image/realtime/eurisgic/). The input consists of real-time data from 13 IMAGE magnetometer stations in North Europe, 1-D block models of the ground conductivity, and a DC description of the power grids and the pipeline. This test has run since spring 2012 without any major problems. The next step, presently under development, is an extension to forecasting based on magnetohydrodynamic simulations starting from in-situ solar wind measurements. The nowcast server, as well as the forthcoming forecast server, is generic in that it is applicable in any geographic scale. Because the method determines ionospheric (equivalent) current densities, it also serves as a real-time monitor of ionospheric electrojets giving more quantitative information than the traditional AU/AL-type indices.

In this study we have analysed the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the solar cycle 23, which have produced major geomagnetic storms (Dst < -150 nT). The analysis is focused on the calculation of the real speeds of CMEs directed towards the observer (using the sphere model of a CME) and comparison with the speeds of corresponding interplanetary CMEs, measured at ACE. Correlations between CMEs parameters and geomagnetic indexes have been done in order to improve the space weather prediction, based on near-Sun signatures.

Empirical studies have related the minimum value of the geomagnetic storm Dst index to interplanetary parameters. Recently Ji et al. [2010] suggested that three conditions are candidates to trigger an intense storm: Bs > 10 nT for more than 3 hours, VBs > 5 mV/m for more than 2 hours, and Bs > 15 nT or VBs > 5 mV/m for more than 2 hours.
During the first stages of a geomagnetic storm, with small values of the Dst index, the losses term in the Burton's equation is still insignificant relative to the injection function term. As a consequence, in the initial stages of the storm, from Burton's equation, the Dst decrease is proportional to the product of VBs and Ät. Then, if Ät is fixed at 3 hours, an intense storm will be developed by a duskward electric field of about 6 mV/m, which is close to the suggested empirical criteria mentioned above.
This presentation deals with the relative importance of the terms VBs and Ät involved in reaching a ÄDst value. Our results provide the timescale to assume, or not, that an empirical source function for Dst proportional to VBs represents energy injection into the ring current plasma.