SOLID is an FP7 collaboration of 10 European partner institutions addressing solar irradiance research with the aim to provide the first European solar irradiance data set. The project is intended to start in 2013 and will be funded by the European Commission. The focus of the project is the comprehensive analysis of solar irradiance variations which are the most important natural factor driving the terrestrial climate and as such a crucial input to any climate modelling. There have been previous efforts to compile solar irradiance but there are still large uncertainties on spectral and total solar irradiance variations on time scales exceeding a few solar rotations and in particular the long term trend. Numerous disperse observational records or irradiance exist. Therefore, it is important to bring together the European expertise in the field to analyse and merge the complete set of European irradiance data, complemented by archive data as well as data from non-European missions. We report on the initiation of a collaborative effort to unify representatives from all European solar space experiments, European teams specialized in multi-wavelength solar image processing along with the European groups involved in irradiance modelling and reconstruction. They will work with two different state of the art approaches to reconstruct spectral and total solar irradiance data as a function of time. These results will be used to bridge gaps in time and wavelength coverage of the observational data. One goal of the proposing SOLID team is to reduce the uncertainties in the irradiance time series - an important requirement by the climate community - and to provide uniform data sets of modelled and observed solar irradiance data from the beginning of the space era to the present including proper error and uncertainty estimates. Climate researchers need these data sets and therefore, the primary benefit of this project is for the climate community, but the stellar community, planetary, lunar, and ionospheric researchers are also interested in having at their disposition incident radiation of the Sun. The proposing team plans to realize a wide international synergy in solar irradiance research from 7 European countries including collaborators from the US and complemented by representatives from the climate community, who will accompany this project with wide dissemination activities.

The appearance of Solar Particle Event (SPE) is accompanied by different processes and phenomena in the terrestrial atmosphere. One such basic phenomenon is the complementary ionization which it causes. In dependence on the SPE power, the phenomenon Ground Level Enhancement is observed when there is Solar Cosmic Ray (SCR) flux ejection with energy above 100 MeV. In that case a high energy particle flux penetrates and causes cascade processes in the atmosphere. Their products reach the Earth surface and are registered in the neutron monitors. Such phenomena occur during the events from 17 and 20 January 2005 (GLE 68 and 69).
The ionization rate profile appreciation in result from the processes mentioned above is usually a hard and painful problem because of the complexity of the corpuscular-electromagnetic cascades in the atmosphere. Generally the ionization rate is calculated at the starting point of the event or some points near it [1, 2, 3]. That appreciation is necessary to characterize the momentary ionization state and the processes and the effects which are related to it. But it is not enough. The calculation of the ion production at different moments is very interesting with the purpose to follow in time the development of the ionization process and the effects from it. The most elementary case is the evaluation of ionization profiles at the starting and the end point of the investigated time period. The ion production which is determined concretely for the SPE from 20 January 2005 is given in [4]. In the present work on the base of calculated profiles of ionization of the proton flux generated by a solar proton event of 20 January 2005 (GLE 69) are calculated profiles for the production of ozone for 15 hours. A comparison between the ozone production at 40, 60 and 800 degree of Northern latitude is made. The obtained ozone production profiles show maxima at different altitudes. The highest maximum is situated at polar latitudes, the lowest maximum - at middle latitudes. The ozone production is highest at polar latitudes - the production at 600 N is 1,4% from the production at 800 N. At 400 N it is 0.085% from the production at polar latitudes.

References

1. Mishev A., P.I.Y. Velinov, Atmosphere Ionization Due to Cosmic Ray Protons Estimated with Corsika Code Simulations.Comptes rendus de l'Académie bulgare des Sciences 60 (3), 2007, 225-230.

2. Velinov P.I.Y., A.Mishev. Solar Cosmic ray induced ionization in the Earth's atmosphere obtained with Corsika code simulations. Comptes rendus de l'Académie bulgare des Sciences 61 (7), 2008, 247-932.

3. Usoskin I.G.,, G.A. Kovaltsov, Cosmic ray induced ionization in the atmosphere: Full modeling and practical applications, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D21206, 2006.

4. Mishev A., P.I.Y. Velinov, L. Mateev. Atmospheric ionization due to solar cosmic rays from 20 January 2005 calculated with Monte Carlo simulations. Comptes rendus de l'Académie bulgare des Sciences 63 (11), 2010, 1635-1642.

This study investigates the relationship between the surface air temperature at European continental scale and the variabilities of the solar activity and of the Atlantic Ocean. The solar and Atlantic Ocean variabilities are described, in our correlation analysis, by means of the sunspot number (R), and, respectively, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), one of the important modes of large-scale variability in the Northern Hemisphere, and of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A robust and reliable data set of long records of air temperature for Europe (35 stations, 1900-2006) was used. The time series were filtered by means of 11- and 22-year running averages and the corresponding variations were compared to solar and Atlantic Ocean variabilities. Strong and coherent solar signals have been found at Schwabe and Hale solar cycles timescales at all analyzed stations with amplitude differences that can be understood in terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

The solar spectral variability during the latest solar cycle and in particular the behaviour of the solar UV is a timely and hotly debated topic. Recent observations from SORCE suggest that the variability in the UV may significantly differ from what was observed during earlier cycles. If confirmed, these results raise the possibility for the variation of stratospheric ozone to significantly depart from current expectations.

Several satellites have been monitoring the solar spectral variability in the UV since the late 70's. However, very few observations span more than one solar cycle. In addition to that, they often disagree and are affected by sensor degradation. There remains a considerable issue in merging these disparate observations into a single composite UV data set, with the aim to assess the long-term variability.

We built such a composite by using a Bayesian framework, which allows to properly handle uncertainties. The outcome is one single composite spectral irradiance dataset for the UV (120-410 nm), which clearly reveals the departure of recent measurements by SORCE from past observations.

The solar radiometer LYRA on board the ESA micro-satellite PROBA2 has observed the Sun continuously since January 2010 in various spectral bandpasses. Two of the LYRA channels cover the irradiance between soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet. The variation of the sunspot number appears to show a strong similarity with the variation of these channels, when their long-range development is taken into account, i.e., their daily irradiance minima without flaring activity. We will try to give some explanations, and complement the findings with other instruments' (GOES, PROBA2/SWAP) results.

Various atmospheric parameters are in some periods positively and in others negatively correlated with solar activity. Solar activity is a result of the action of solar dynamo transforming solar poloidal field into toroidal field and back. The poloidal and toroidal fields are the two faces of solar magnetism, so they are not independent, but we demonstrate that their long-term variations are not identical, and the periods in which solar activity agents affecting the Earth are predominantly related to solar toroidal or poloidal fields are the periods in which the North Atlantic Oscillation is negatively or positively correlated with solar activity, respectively. We find further that solar poloidal field-related activity increases the NAM index, while solar toroidal field-related activity decreases it. This is a possible explanation of the changing correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation and solar activity.

Cloud cover represents an essential component in the terrestrial radiation budget. The influence of solar activity and of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) on terrestrial cloud cover and on other atmospheric parameters has been studied by scientists around the world since some time ago. There are strong disagreements between the conclusions drawn concerning these subjects and they refer to the time scales, data sources, or other factors. However, the variability of the solar irradiance itself is too small to explain its influence on climate parameters (Gray et al., 2010). Indirect effect of solar variability on climate are searched, based on mechanisms involving other solar proxies, such as cosmic rays (CR) and solar ultraviolet irradiance (UVI), which, probably, act together on clouds. Climate changes have been already correlated with the intensity of cosmic ray flux, since CRs affect the cloud condensation nuclei abundance and hence the global cloud properties and climate. Also, the neutron monitor data show that galactic cosmic ray (GCR) fluxes vary with the strength of IMF, which is modulated by the Sun. Considering all these issues, this paper proposes the analysis of the link between CR, IMF and cloud cover and the possible dependence on altitude and composition. The studied period covers the years between 1984 and 2009. Since correlations have been found between temperature and geomagnetic activity and the latter depends on IMF, it is important to establish whether this the main trigger links to the geomagnetic activity (and thus to CR flux variation) or to solar wind variations.

Huancayo Observatory (12°S, 75° W) is one of the most complete Observatories at Equatorial Region in Peru, South America , with one of the longest Meteorological data recorded since 1920.

Parameters related to the Earth's lower atmosphere are usually studied for short term or medium term time scales . Cosmic Ray and Solar irradiance are considered for correlation studies with solar cycle. In this report we present particular observations of 2D time/time maps which can ilustrate seasonal and long term changes. We observe the influence of the 11 year solar cycle in the Pressure monthly mean, and the Temperature (max/min) monthly mean. It is important the consideration of such influence in long term atmospheric models.

The role of this long-term solar activity variation and its impact in the evolution of Pressure and Temperature is clearly seen in these local data. Rain observations show more noisy variation in seasonal changes but we can see correlation with phase of solar cycle. We also discuss and compare observed variations with magnetic and ionospheric parameters.

We analyze possible causal chain from solar activity/space weather to earth weather and agriculture production. We show that this scenario in principal cannot considered as universal, but may has place in selected regions and during specific historical periods, when several necessary conditions has place simultaneously (sensitivity of local weather to space weather, sensitivity of local agriculture production to local weather condition (belonging to "high risk agriculture zone"), isolation of local agriculture market, preventing to external to supply external cheap corn). Since the most drastically form of corn deficit is mass famine, we analyze statistics of famines in Iceland and India and show high reliable correlation of famine events with extreme states of space weather/solar activity.

I describe a strategy for obtaining an empirical assessment of the specific climate sensitivity to solar forcing relative to volcanic, orbital and anthropogenic forcing. The main goal is to assess the relative importance of the ultraviolet (UV) part of the solar spectrum compared to the total solar irradiance (TSI). Another is to assess the significance of coherent cycles in the global temperature signal relative to a climate noise component characterized by long-range memory (LRM). This LRM is a mathematical representation of the multiplicity of different response times of the climate system.

The research strategy is based on utilizing available data on radiative forcing and their reconstructions, augmented by a statistical model of solar and volcanic forcing beyond the holocene, and data on global and hemispheric climate variability on a vast range of time scales. The main uncertainties in these data are the relative weights between solar, volcanic and orbital forcing, and for solar forcing; the relative weight between the forcing from UV variability and TSI variability. We denote these weights the specific climate sensitivity parameters.

The next step is to decompose the forcing signals into deterministic and stochastic components. This analysis yields a number of model parameters, such as memory exponents, intermittency parameters, and frequencies and power in cyclic components of the forcing, but the climate sensitivity parameters are still unknowns. The main product here is a stochastic model of the total forcing signal parametrized by the specific climate sensitivity coefficients.

Finally the modeled forcing signals and the climate response records are fed into a dynamic-stochastic model for the global temperature with long-range memory response, and a maximum-likelihood statistical method is employed to determine the specific climate sensitivity parameters. Estimates of these climate sensitivity parameters, and their confidence limits, are the main deliverables of this project.

Clouds play a very important role in the climate system. They could be seen as a complex filter of the solar radiation reching the Earth surface. Their albedo represents the most important factor of negative radiative forcing on Earth. It is generally considered that high clouds tend to heat, while low clouds tend to cool the low troposphere, so that cloud variation has a high impact on climatic variability. The effect of solar activity on climate, in our case on clouds, is most likely mediated by internal climatic factors, especially by teleconnections. Therefore we aim at understanding some characteristics of the global distribution of the relationship between internal climatic oscillations, as for instance teleconnections, and different types of clouds. Teleconnections are links between atmospheric anomalies over great distances, which often manifest as persistent relationships between pressure fields of various geopotential heights at far-apart locations (Glantz 1990). Our goal is to separate between geographical regions where atmospheric teleconnections play an important role in the formation and evolution of clouds and at finding whether these relationships compete, cancel or amplify possible solar effects on clouds. Indices of several teleconnections will be used together with cloud cover data collected by satellites. The climate may respond differently during periods of high and low solar activity to both internal and external climatic triggers, thus separation between years of high and low solar activity is also considered when analyzing the cloud-teleconnection relationship.

The paper describes the association between high long-lasting solar/geomagnetic activity and geopotential height (GPH) changes in the winter lower atmosphere, based on their development in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter periods (December-March) of 1951- 2002. Solar/geomagnetic activity is characterized by the 60-day mean of the R number/by the 60-day mean of the daily sum of the Kp index. The GPH distributions in the lower atmosphere are described by 60-day mean anomalies from their long-term daily average at 50 hPa/500 hPa. The data have been adopted from the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis. The 60-day mean values of solar/geomagnetic activity and GPH anomalies were calculated in five-day steps over the whole winter period. The analysis was carried out using composite maps which represent the distribution of GPH anomalies during high (R≥110) solar activity and high (∑Kp≥21) geomagnetic activity. The composite maps, created on the basis of solar activity data, show significant anomalies of GPH in the lower stratosphere and in the troposphere. They display a positive significant anomaly in the band of low and middle latitudes in the lower stratosphere and statistically significant anomalies, small in area, in the middle troposphere. A statistically significant instance of a positive anomaly in the lower stratosphere was noted during the whole examined period. The composite maps, created on the basis of geomagnetic activity data, show significant anomalies of GPH in the lower stratosphere. Positive anomalies are to be observed in the low and middle latitudes, and negative anomalies in the polar region. The composite maps relating to the middle troposphere display an ordering of significant anomalies, which is indicative of a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A significant positive anomaly in the lower stratosphere was observed in all analyzed intervals, and a significant negative anomaly in the lower stratosphere was observed in two analyzed intervals. The positive phase of the NAO was noted during the whole examined period. The change of relationship between solar/geomagnetic activity and the distribution of GPH anomalies in the lower atmosphere, taking place at the beginning of seventies, is documented by means of scatter diagrams. The statistical significance was computed using the Monte Carlo method.

The RMIB has a long tradition with the Differential Absolute Radiometer (DIARAD) for the measurement of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) from space, with in total eleven space flights, and currently two active instruments in space. Our latest instrument is the Sova-Picard one which was launched in June 2010, and our longest measuring one is DIARAD/VIRGO on SOHO, which has been measuring over more than one solar cycle since 1996. While a stability of the order of 0.1 W/m² has been achieved, an uncertainty on the absolute level of several W/m² remains. In this presentation we will show the results of a critical re-investigation of the determination of the absolute level of our instruments. We take into account the hitherto neglected effect of thermal heat losses for the electrical heating of the DIARAD cavities. This leads to a reduction of the absolute level of the DIARAD type radiometer.

The abrupt increase of the Earth's near surface air temperature during the last several decades, tips the scales in favour of the view that solar variability has a minimal impact on climate change. This conclusion is based on the analysis of that part of solar radiation (visible and near infrared bands of solar spectrum), which have a direct influence on the surface air temperature. After a thorough analysis (linear and non-linear) of the factors effecting Earth's climate, we found out an alternative factor describing even greater part of the land air temperature variability than increased CO2 concentration, and this factor is the lower stratospheric ozone.
In this presentation we will describe the mechanism of ozone influence on climate. Revising some widely accepted, but mined by severe shortcomings, concepts - related to the ozone and climate formation factors - we offer an attempt "to see the forest not simply the individual trees", reducing uncertainties in our knowledge and offering answers to some unresolved problem. The non-linear analysis of ozone data reveals that all four examined factors, i.e. stratospheric chlorine, atmospheric circulation index (Vagengeim-Girs index), multi-decadal variability of sun spot numbers and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), have a substantial impact in the long-term ozone variability. GCR, however, describe the greatest part of ozone variations. The real foundation of this statistical relation has been confirmed by our ion-chemical model of the lower stratosphere. The ozone produced from the ion-molecular reactions (initiated by GCR) is comparable with the peak ozone density and consequently capable of distortion the lower stratospheric ozone profile.
This result has been related to the previously reported connection between ozone and temperature in upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. The temperature variations, however, are inevitably connected with humidity variations near tropopause, and consequently with energy balance of the planet. The temporal variations and spatial distribution of this O3-H2O forcing over the globe will be discussed.

For several years now, many attempts have been made to merge all total solar irradiance (TSI) observations into a single composite with the aim to assess the presence of long-term trends in the solar radiative output. Three composites have been derived that way, based on different assumptions, and also yielding different trends.

Because this issue is so important for climate studies, other approaches are now being considered for making/testing such composites. Here we consider a novel approach in which a Bayesian framework is used to extract a consistent TSI composite that is compatible with all the observations, given their uncertainties.

We show how a distribution of the TSI is obtained, whose most probable value yields a new composite that differs from the existing ones but still is in good agreement with the results from spectral irradiance models.

There are two basic channels of solar activity impact on the lower ionosphere (ionosphere below 90-100 km), which is embedded in the mesosphere and lowermost thermosphere. The first one is through changes of solar electromagnetic ionizing radiation, solar EUV and X-ray flux; particularly the X-ray flux can change by orders of magnitude both during the 11-year solar cycle and strong solar flares. The other channel is via variable solar wind and its interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), which cause geomagnetic storms and other space weather/climate phenomena including variability of penetrating/precipitating high-energy particle flux and via modulation of galactic cosmic rays by IMF. The lower ionosphere response to solar forcing has been studied for more than 50 years by various ground-based methods and with the use of in-situ rocket measurements. The sources of solar activity impact on the lower ionosphere and methods used for investigating lower ionosphere response will be summarized and selected results will be presented. It should be stressed that during strong events of solar origin the electron density in the lower ionosphere may be enhanced by more than an order of magnitude. Variable occurrence frequency of strong events of solar origin has also impact on climate of the lower ionosphere.

Geographical distribution of statistically significant phase coherence among oscillatory modes with the period of approximately 7-8 years detected in monthly time series of geomagnetic activity aa index, NAO index and ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR air temperature was studied. Both the reanalysis datasets provide consistent patterns of areas with marked, statistically significant coupling between solar/geomagnetic activity and climate variability observed in continuous monthly data, independent of the season, however, confined to the temporal scale related to oscillatory periods about 7-8 years. The role of NAO in the transfer of solar/geomagnetic influence from stratosphere to troposphere is discussed.

The presentation of solar activity-climate relations is extended with the most recent sunspot and global temperature data series. The extension of data series shows clearly that the changes in terrestrial temperatures are related to sources different from solar activity after ~1985. Based on analyses of data series for the years 1850-1985 it is demonstrated that, apart from an interval of positive deviation followed by a similar negative excursion in Earth's temperatures between ~1923 and 1965, there is a strong correlation between solar activity and terrestrial temperatures delayed by 3 years, which complies with basic causality principles. The shortcomings of the solar-cycle length-climate model and of the cosmic radiation-cloud-climate model are discussed. It is suggested that the in-cycle variations and also the longer term variations in global temperatures over the examined 135 years are mainly caused by corresponding changes in the total solar irradiance level representing the energy output from the core, but further modulated by varying energy transmission properties in the active outer regions of the Sun. Regression analysis between solar activity represented by the cycle-average sunspot number, SSNA, and global temperature anomalies,A TA , averaged over the same interval lengths, but delayed by 3 years, has shown that the total solar activity-related changes in global temperatures could amounts to no more than ±0.4°C over the past ~400 years where the sunspots have been recorded