Solar Radio Bursts (SRBs) generated by solar activities can effect on wireless communications systems as an initially unexpected and unrecognized jamming signal. The analysis on the performance degradation by SRBs for several key wireless communications system such as LTE, Wi-Fi, and GPS have been carried out and concluded with near term activities.

Space Weather Software Models are used to support analysis and forecasting of space weather phenomena and the effects of these phenomena on spacecraft and other critical infrastructure.

Exploitation depends on efficient ICT infrastructure for coupling models and supporting heterogeneous execution; software, hardware and networks capable of supporting challenging CPU and communication requirements. Recent developments in technology known as "the cloud" offer significant benefits such as flexibility and immediate scalability ("elasticity") are particularly suited to these challenges

We will present the concepts and interim results of a study being conducted for ESA on this topic. The overall objective of the study is to assess needs and define a blueprint for an ESA-wide cloud solution, comprising two layers:

We describe the history of cosmic ray (CR) discovery from the end of 19th century, and why this phenomenon obtained wrong name, discovery of the first anti-particle (positron), mesons and hyperons in CR, development of different aspects of CR research. We consider also very important applications of CR to the problem of space weather effects on satellite operation (satellite anomalies), aircrafts, electronics, people health, agriculture production, and climate change.

1. Why magnetic storms are dangerous (people health, induced electric currents, communications, car accidents, train accidents, satellite malfunctions/anomalies)
2. How to correct data of neutron monitors and muon telescopes on local meteorological effects in real time scale (for neutron component - mostly barometric effect; for muon component -mostly barometric effect + temperature effect; data on air pressure; satellite data over the globe of temperature vertical distribution each 6 hours; using ground one hour data and kaminer’s method - obtain one hour data for temperature vertical distribution)
3. What precursory effects can be used for forecasting ( we discuss here three phenomena that can be used for forecasting FDs: 1) CR intensity increase, of non solar CR origin, occurring before sudden commencement of a major geomagnetic storm connected with FD (preincrease effect), 2) CR intensity decrease before FD (predecrease effect), 3) change in CR fluctuations before FD. We analyse the behaviour of the isotropic CR intensity and of the 3-dimensional vector of CR anisotropy before FDs, as well as results on CR scintillation of 1-hour and 5-minute data).
4. The final aim: how to organize the work of world-wide network of neutron monitors and muon telescopes (very important both) for continue forecasting of dangerous magnetic storms

The Polar Cap (PC) indices, PCN for the index values derived from Thule magnetic data and PCS derived from Vostok data, relate to the polar cap ionospheric plasma convection driven mainly by the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere. Thus, the PC indices serve to monitor the input power from the solar wind that drives a range of geophysical disturbances such as magnetic storms and substorms, energization of the plasma trapped in the Earth's near space, auroral activity, and heating of the upper atmosphere. The presentation will demonstrate the close relations between the PC indices, considered to represent the solar wind source, and further geospace parameters and indices used to describe geophysical activity such as polar cap potentials, auroral electrojet activity, Joule and particle heating of the upper atmosphere, mid-latitude magnetic variations, and ring current indices Dst, SYM-H and ASY-H.

This paper proposes a new approach to develop a climatological regional model for the Total Electron Content(TEC) over Australia using Spherical Cap Harmonic Analysis (SCHA) and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) techniques.
The SCHA method was firstly used to estimate TEC at evenly distributed grid points from GPS data collected from the Australian Regional GPS Network (ARGN). The SCHA model is based on longitudinal expansion in Fourier series and fractional Legendre co-latitudinal functions over a spherical cap-like region including the Australian continent. This harmonic expansion requires less coefficients to represent the fine structure of regional ionospheric features than global Spherical Harmonic Analysis (SHA). EOF analysis was then used to decompose the TEC dataset into a series of orthogonal Eigenfunctions (EOF base functions) and associated coefficients. The base function represents the variation in TEC with latitude and longitude. The coefficients represent the variation with time. The importance of different type of variation to the overall TEC variability as well as the influence of the solar radiation and geomagnetic activity is well presented by the characteristics of the first four EOFs and associated coefficients.

The aim of the COMESEP project is to develop forecasting tools for both SEP radiation storms and geomagnetic storms. The analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of the SOHO era (after 1996) will help identify the key factors that lead to extreme space weather events, thus enabling more precise forecasting. To this end, we have selected a subset of the most important geomagnetic storms during the last 150 years (starting in the mid 1800s) and have started gathering images, drawings and all the data available for each of these events.

Our first task, included in Work package 4, is to identify a set of sunspot parameters that can be used to describe further solar events/parameters (flares, CMEs, SEPs, geomagnetic storms). This set of sunspot parameters has to be readily available, i.e., even from old sunspot drawings, so that our database goes back as far as possible in the past. Once similarities are established it will give us information that can be used as input for the forecasting of space weather events. Here, we will present part of the data gathering process, the sunspot parameters we have been able to gather so far and the results of our analysis.

This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

We study the evolution of magnetized plasma from an initial configuration that contains several isolated null-points. The simulations are performed with implicit particle-in-cell numerical code in three dimensions. Magnetic reconnection sets up immediately after the beginning of simulations. We investigate how various parameters of the system influence the reconnection process and resulting magnetic field topology.

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) holds the largest assembly of state-of-the-art physics-based space weather models developed by the international space physics community. In addition to providing the community easy access to these modern space research models to support science research, its another primary goal is to test and validate models for transition from research to operations.

In this presentation, we provide an overview of the space science models available at CCMC. Then we will focus on the community-wide model validation efforts led by CCMC in all domains of the Sun-Earth system and the internal validation efforts at CCMC to support space weather services/operations provided by its sibling organization - NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov). We will also discuss our efforts in operational model validation in collaboration with NOAA/SWPC.

We present three-dimensional Particle-in-Cell simulations of an unmagnetized body immersed in the solar wind. The simulations are performed using the implicit electromagnetic Particle-in-Cell code iPIC3D [Markidis, 2009]. Multiscale kinetic physics is resolved for all plasma components (heavy ions, protons and electrons) in the code, recently updated with a set of open boundary conditions designed for solar wind - body interaction studies. Particles are injected at the inflow side of the computational domain and absorbed at all others. In particular, iPIC3D is applied to: 1) a spacecraft charging study and 2) a detailed investigation of wake physics behind a Moon-sized body.

A number of simulation models were developed in the past to study the transport of solar energetic particles (SEP) as well as the propagation and evolution of plasma waves in the corona and interplanetary space. The particle transport models were based on the simplistic assumption that streaming particles being affected (scattered) by plasma waves do not have any effect on the waves. However, recent studies reveal that this is not the case and the back-reaction of particles is essential. Therefore, there is a need for coupling particle and wave transport simulations. This is important not only for the SEP transport itself but also for the particle acceleration at shocks, i.e. in studies of the foreshock evolution. We have developed such a code in the framework of the SPACECAST EU/FP7 project, based on the Monte Carlo approach with the goal of implementing the full resonance condition of particle scattering. Here we present details of the code, compare the results of our calculations with those obtained with the previous particle transport codes, and discuss the future implementation of the method.

We present the development of a data driven model of the Australian regional ionosphere for space weather operations. IPS Australia currently produces a regional real time TEC map using GNSS and a real time foF2 map using ionosondes. We will describe the development of a single unified assimilative, empirical real time model combining these and other data sources. Our approach is regional and data driven. The comparison to physics based models will be discussed along with the potential for forecasting regional using empirical approaches.

The quiet behavior of the ionospheric electron density peak height of the F2 region, hmF2, has been evaluated from average electron density profiles and analytically modeled by the Spherical Harmonic Analysis (SH) technique. The quiet SH hmF2 model is bounded to the local time, season and solar activity, and it provides better performance than current International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model does. The response at mid latitude of the hmF2 to the intense geomagnetic storms has been investigated and the height disturbance, ∆hmF2, has been modeled in relation to the local-time, season and bounded to the conditions of the interplanetary magnetic field. Coupling both above models, the quiet hmF2 and disturbance ∆hmF2, a potential forecasting tool for hmF2 has been developed. Performance of this tool has been evaluated at sub-auroral latitudes in the Sourthern Hemisphere. Results show that the forecasting tool for hmF2 predicts meaningfully well the uplift in hmF2 for several geomagnetic storms that occurred in the present solar cycle.

Space Weather is not a recent field, but being our daily life relying more and more on infrastructures sensitive to the Sun activity, accurate knowledge and forecasting tools are essential. In this paper we present an interdisciplinary study of the effects of solar activity on the Earth's environment, specifically the effects on the geomagnetic field and the ionosphere. A timeline of effects occurred on the Earth produced by one of the firsts relevant events of the present solar cycle (24-25 October 2011) will be given. We have analyzed solar wind shockwave from satellite data, compared observed geomagnetic variations with those obtained from the TIEGCM model fed with field aligned current data from AMPERE, and predicted geoelectric field and geomagnetically induced currents at the northeast of Spain. In addition we have analyzed ionospheric effects at Ebro Observatory and Port Stanley locations and compared it with the hmF2 disturbance model and with TIEGCM outputs. Physical mechanisms that relate those effects are also presented. On the basis of the experience gained with this study we attempt to design a practical space weather global-to-local observational asset to be used in future major events.

The SWIFF consortium has the ultimate goal of coupling kinetic and fluid description to achieve computationally sustainable simulations of space weather related events.
A first step towards such an objective is the coupling between fully kinetic and hybrid (kinetic ions, fluid electrons) models. We start from an exiting 1D Multi Level Multi Domain (MLMD) Implicit Moment Method Particle in Cell code (Innocenti et al., [submitted]) which simulates on different levels a fully kinetic plasma. We perform a stability study of such a code and of an hybrid code (Brackbill, 1982).
The challenges which arise from simulating the refined level kinetically and the corse level with an hybrid code are addressed and tentative solutions are proposed.

The ESA ITT project (AO/1-6738/11/NL/AT) to develop Phase 1 of a Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre has the following objectives and scope:

1. The construction of a long term (~10 yrs) plan for the future development of a European virtual space weather modelling centre consisting of a new 'open' and distributed framework for the coupling of physics based models for space weather phenomena;
2. The assessment of model capabilities and the amount of work required to make them operational by integrating them in this framework and the identification of computing and networking requirements to do so.
3. The design of a system to enable models and other components to be installed locally or geographically distributed and the creation of a validation plan including a system of metrics for testing results.

The daunting task of developing a true predictive model that can serve space weather community has drawn huge motivation from the availability of solar, heliospheric and near-Earth data that are reliable and well calibrated. Past works have shown that for prediction purposes, a relationship linking geomagnetic activity with absorption for a given local time and latitude is desirable. Some of the authors [e.g Hargreaves, 1966; Kavanagh et al, 2004] are clear on the use of geomagnetic activity indices rather than solar activity indices as the building block of a predictive module. Fundamentally, the solar wind and IMF play important roles in shaping the magnetosphere and transferring energy and momentum into it. Some of the energy is passed to the electrons that precipitates to the ionosphere and causes radio absorption. Also, a near accurate parameter known for quantifying the energy transfer from the solar wind into the magnetosphere is the Akasofu epsilon parameter which comprise of a viscous and a merging terms. In this work, we perform a post-event correlation analysis of riometer absorption data and use the Akasofu epsilon parameter for the coupling coefficient. . The values of solar wind parameters used [solar wind velocityi¹/4 Vi¹/2_x, the IMFi¹/4- Bi¹/2_x ,B_y,B_z, and the solar wind proton number measured in GSM coordinate] obtained at the L1 point are from the OMNI data, time delay is taken to account for the propagation of the solar wind to the nose of the magnetosphere as given by Spencer et al., [Spencer et al., 2007]. Absorption values are from the Kilpisjarvi riometer station. The aim is to be able to predict absorption based on epsilon parameter.

Massively parallel numerical simulations of magnetic reconnection are presented in this study. Electromagnetic full-particle implicit code iPIC3D is used to study the dynamics and 3D evolution of reconnection outflows. Such features as Hall magnetic field, inflow and outflow and diffusion region formation are very similar to 2D PIC simulations. In addition, it is well known that instabilities develop in the current flow direction or oblique directions. These modes could provide for anomalous resistivity and diffusive drag and can serve as additional proxies for magnetic reconnection. In our work the unstable evolution of reconnection dipolarization fronts are studied. Reconnection configuration in the absence of guide field is considered. Our study suggests that the instabilities lead to the development of finger-like density structures on ion-electron hybrid scales. These structures are characterized by a rapid increase of the magnetic field, normal to the current sheet (Bz). A small negative dip in Bz component is observed in the region ahead of the dipolarization front. Oscillations with period of ~45sec mainly in the magnetic and electric fields and the electron density are observed several minutes ahead of the dipolarization front which is consistent with recent THEMIS observations. The instabilities form due to fact that the density gradient inside the dipolarization front region is opposite to the direction of the acceleration Lorentz force. Such density structures may possibly further develop into larger-scale Earthward flux transfer events during magnetotail reconnection.