ESA has selected the JUICE mission to the moons of Jupiter as a future "large" class science mission. A major engineering, and therefore cost, driver is radiation hardness assurance. The Jovian radiation belts are well known to be very harsh in terms of ionizing particles, with little in]situ data available. Empirical models of the environment have been established successively using Pioneer, Voyager and Galileo data; the most extensive data to date are from Galileo. Model uncertainties lead inevitably to design risks for the spacecraft and to imposition of appropriate radiation design "margins" to mitigate this risk. Uncertainty stems in large part from uncertainties in the underlying data, due either to the design and calibration of the instrument or the representativeness of the data to the mission under investigation. Although some radiation environment models use "confidence levels" to mitigate this latter uncertainty, these have to be used with caution. They are normally based on the scatter of instantaneous measurements and so do not reflect the probability distribution of time-integrated fluxes (fluences) over trajectories, of relevance to dose estimation.

We present the JUICE radiation environment and examine variability of the environment encountered on segments of the Galileo trajectory passing regions of importance to the JUICE mission. JUICE will reach Jupiter at earliest in 2030 and will spend 3 1/2 years exploring the Jupiter system before "disposal" on Ganymede. In that time it will fly by Europa twice, encountering the most challenging instantaneous radiation environment of the mission, and orbit Callisto and Ganymede. The resulting mission radiation dose can reach megarads with shielding typical of Earth-orbiting spacecraft . More shielding will clearly be necessary and the shielding thickness determines the particle energies in the environment of importance to the total dose and other hazards (internal electrostatic charging). With a 1cm aluminium shield, electrons with initial energy around 10MeV are most important while Increasing the shielding to 2cm shifts the important energies to around 20MeV.

The analysis of variability examines data from the 3 most useful instrument channels of the Galileo EPD instrument. Unfortunately these channels have very broad responses to electrons, making derivation of electron spectra difficult. Nevertheless, the Galileo trajectory passed repeatedly through regions that will be encountered by JUICE, allowing derivation of fluence variations as a basis for proposing engineering margins. Given the importance of radiation effects to the mission, it is also planned to improve the methodology for radiation shielding analysis to be applied through the project lifecycle to allow collaborative iterations in an efficient manner, and also to embark as part of the platform equipment a customized radiation monitor targeted at measuring energetic electrons with good resolution in the energy range of concern.

The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) is a critical input for space weather applications but also to quantify human-driven climate change. Direct observations of the SSI started in the late 1970's, showing solar cycle variations that range from a fraction of a percent in the visible range, to several percent or more in the UV. The latter is particularly important for the specification of the thermosphere/ionosphere system.

To day, all SSI observations and modelling efforts have concentrated on one unique vantage point only, which is the terrestrial one. An important, but so far unanswered question is: how does the SSI and its variability look like from other vantage points, i.e., outside of the ecliptic plane? This question is relevant for space exploration (e.g. for missions such as Solar Orbiter), for the understanding of the solar radiative output, but also for comparing the Sun to Sun-like stars. This raises a second, and more fundamental question: how does the solar luminosity vary in time? Due to a lack of quantitative estimates, this has never been assessed.

Here, we use a semi-empirical irradiance model that relies on solar surface magnetism to reconstruct the total solar irradiance (TSI). For the first time, we estimate the TSI for the full 3D heliosphere, from June 2010 till today. From this, we are able to derive the solar luminosity.

Our results show that observers with different orbital inclinations experience various levels of irradiance, but the variability in the TSI remains comparable to that observed at Earth. Significant differences between different vantage points arise when there are hemispheric asymmetries in solar active regions. These effects are important for future missions that will go out of the ecliptic plane. However, they are not sufficient to drive observed millenial climate variations through orbital inclination changes. The variability of the luminosity, which differs from that of the TSI, will be discussed and recent results on the 3D reconstruction of the SSI (and not only the TSI) will be presented.

Key Words : Solar Activity, Géomagnetism, Space Weather, Modelling simulation,  Epidemies

Background : According to their energy , cosmics and solar radiations reach the < Space Weather <  around the surface of the earth and have consequences on living organisms and thus their immune response and emergence of epidemies (1,2)
The particles associated with solar flares have energy ranging from a few tens of Kev to GeV
Most cosmic radiations, coming from outside the solar system, have energies ranging between 100 MeV and 10 GeV and particles flux with energies below about 10 GeV have significant anticorrelation with the 11 years cycle Solar activity. Several authors have highlighted a link between, solar flares, space weather, cellular metabolism and immune response

Method : To taking account the relation between the space radiation and the biosphere must be modelling:
-interaction with the molecules of atmosphere itself -interaction with the living organism (free radical DNA)

and use :
SADT : Structural Analisys and Design Technic Method
this method consists to represent any process by functional blocks which describe them according to a specific equation

To descibe each process of functional block quantitatively, it is know that excellent equation type describing them is PID equation (Proportional, Integrative, Derivative) of the form '3):
Y(t)=k1 X(t) + k2 ∫ X(t) dt + k3 d(X(t))/d(t)
Parameter of each independent variable correspond to each coefficient determined by the regression.

Genesyx is a knowlwedge engineering system: in which each block is interconnected following the DATA in a logical way to form a global model of interraction giving a quantitative and qualitative results(3).

Data :

Taking in consideration the solar and cosmic particles(proton, electron, Gamma photon and cascads of secondary particles (gerbes d'Auger), Geomagnetic Index (K, Kp Kpa), (4) for biological parameters mortality (D(t)), due to influenza some relations has been established (5).

Kp (t) = 0,0012W²(t) + 0,4513 W (t)+ 161,21, (R² = 0,1064)

D (t) = 20,7 Kp (t-60) + 7,07 Kp (t-61) - 226,36 (R= 0,26, n = 102 week)

Conclusion and discussion: We found a similarity between occurrence of epidemic and solar effect during epidemic and pandemic period. The immune system is an important regulatory mechanism affected by natural cycle (10-13 years) of the sun (6) .The action of electromagnetic field around 2,8GHz on viruses mutations,may perhaps have break DNA, gene expressions. We have probably an immune depression and/or viruses mutations due to space factors and then an indirect incidence on epidemic diseases. The theory of Planetary Modulation of the Solar Activity (7)permits prevision of the occurrence of sunspots and pandemics. It is possible to forecast approximate period of probable beginning of the next surge of an epidemic.

References

1. George E. Davis Jr., Solar cycles and their relationship to human disease and adaptability, Medical Hypotheses 67, 447 - 461, 2006.
2. Elijahu G. Stoupel., Relationship between immunoglobulin levels and extremes of solar activity, Int J Biometeorol, 38:39-91, 1991.
3. Gaudeau C. and coll, Imuno Modelling, An Expert system, Scientific Data Management, Vol 3 1999
4. Guez R; Gaudeau, C., Etude statistique de l'activité Géomagnétique, Extract from onde Electrique , Vol 475, 1966.
5. Stoupel E., Cosmic rays activity and monthly number of deaths: a correlative study, J Basic Clin Physiol Pharmacol, 13(1):23-32, 2002.
6. Babayev E.S., An Influence of the heliophysical condition on influenza diseases in Azerbaijan during 1976-2000, Solar researches in South-Estern Euroean Countries, 2002.
7. Gaudeau C. and coll Planetary Modulation of Solar Activity Internal Report 16212 2010

The structure, dynamics, chemistry, and evolution of planetary upper atmospheres are in large part determined by the available sources of energy. In addition to the solar EUV flux, the solar wind and solar energetic particle (SEP) events are also important sources. Both of these particle populations can significantly affect an atmosphere, causing atmospheric loss and driving chemical reactions. Attention has been paid to these sources from the standpoint of the radiation environment for humans and electronics, but little work has been done to evaluate their impact on planetary atmospheres. At unmagnetized planets or those with crustal field anomalies, in particular, the solar wind and SEPs of all energies have direct access to the atmosphere and so provide a more substantial energy source than at planets having protective global magnetic fields. Additionally, solar wind and energetic particle fluxes should be more significant for planets orbiting more active stars, such as is the case in the early history of the solar system for paleo-Venus and Mars. Therefore quantification of the atmospheric energy input from the solar wind and SEP events is an important component of our understanding of the processes that control their state and evolution. Such modeling has been previously done for Earth, Mars and Jupiter using a guiding center precipitation model with extensive collisional physics. Currently, this code is only valid for particles with small gyroradii in strong uniform magnetic fields. There is a clear necessity for a Lorentz formulation that can perform calculations for cases where there is only a weak or nonexistent magnetic field that includes detailed physical interaction with the atmosphere (i.e. collisional physics). We show initial efforts to apply a full Lorentz motion particle transport model to study the effects of particle precipitation in the upper atmospheres of Venus, Mars, and Titan. A systematic study of the ionization, excitation, and energy deposition is conducted including a comparison of the influence relative to other energy sources (namely EUV photons) and previous efforts using the guiding center approximation.

The specification of the local space weather conditions of a planet becomes today an important parameter for modelling issues, especially for thermosphere/ionosphere modelling. Various planetary space weather applications then require a continuous and radiometrically calibrated monitoring of the solar spectral irradiance in the UV, especially to better understand how it directly affects the thermosphere/ionosphere system of the considered planet/moon. As of today, all solar UV observations are made either with broadband radiometers or with spectrometers. All these instruments suffer from degradation and are facing the problem of in-flight calibration. As a consequence, most applications that require continuous and long-term observations rely instead on a variety of solar proxies that partly mimic some of the spectral bands. The search for more robust instrument concepts therefore is an issue of considerable importance.

We propose a solution which is expected to overcome, at least partially, these problems. We propose here a new approach based on the idea that it is not necessary to measure the all spectrum but that a few bands suffice for retrieving all the other wavelengths. Five spectral bands in the UV are found to be sufficient for retrieving the full solar UV spectrum with an accuracy that is comparable to that of present spectrometers. Besides, we consider here wide band gap materials instead of silicon for the photodetectors, which are suited for very harsh environments such as the Jovian system. Finally, those new detectors select directly the desired spectral range making front filters, which can contribute to in-flight degradation, useless. With a small weight and a low telemetry, this new instrumental concept might be an interesting asset for planetary missions, such as the JUICE mission.

In the Neutron Monitor database NMDB, a project that was started with FP7 funding, Cosmic Ray observations from ground based Neutron Monitors of over 30 stations worldwide are combined in real-time. On May 17, 2012, this network detected the first ground-level enhancement (GLE = relativistic solar particle event) of the current solar cycle. The growing coverage of NM stations allows us to quickly determine spectra and intensities of earth-directed solar energetic particle events, which can be harmful to technology aboard spacecaft, radio communications and which create an enhanced radiation dose aboard aircraft. We will demonstrate the improved availability of real-time data and some of the data products that several participants of the NMDB project routinely create.

The exploitation experience of space ionizing irradiation exposure on electronic components of engineering Monitoring System elements is discussed. The subjects considered are the space-borne control of TID effects on electronic components, the ground-based control of space weather characteristics and the ground-based space weather forecast station functioning.
The base component of space-born segment is the set of TID sensors, operating on MNOSFET dosinetry principle. More than 36 TID sensors were placed onboard more than 18 spacecraft at the circular orbit ~20000 km since October 2008. The analysis of the flight data in 2012 is presented. Anomalous increasing dose rate in March (in ~ 100 times) after big solar flare was observed. The TID sensor data were compared with the average dose rate from the International Space Station, with ELECTRO electron flux, with ground measurements of cosmic ray variations by Moscow Neutron Monitor and with GOES proton and electron flux data. An excellent agreement with TID sensor data and integral flux of GOES 2 MeV electron is observed. The ELECTRO, ISS and ground-level data also correlate with TID sensor data.
The anomalous on 07.03.2012 was predicted by the forecast station of Monitoring System. The proton flux increasing was predicted on the previous day. Modification of electron fluence forecast was carried out. Verification of electron fluence forecast showed a good correlation between forecast and experimental data. The absence of abrupt increasing of dose rate at the MEO during the solar flare with proton flux increasing and without electron flux increasing at the GEO is noted.
The experimental dose rate data were compared to the calculated dose rate. The experimental and calculated dose rates differ from each other in the order of magnitude in several periods of time.

During the upcoming decades, all important worldwide space agencies are planning to undertake interplanetary travel outside the terrestrial magnetic field. Human and robotic missions are planned from scientific exploration to economic space endeavours. The FP7-funded project eHeroes (www.eheroes.eu) plans to address one of the greatest issues in space exploration: radiation exposure to the astronauts due to space weather.
The present work deals with an investigation of the radiation dose astronauts may receive during two of the most important missions, i.e. Moon and Mars colonization. Concerning the assessment, the missions are divided into many segments in order to take into consideration all the different radiation sources. The main radiation the astronauts are going to face are SPE – Solar Proton Events and GCR - Galactic Cosmic Rays, since the radiation belts around the Earth affect only a short exposure time.
Extensive use of SPENVIS is made to carefully assess typical expected mission doses for the Moon and Mars, breaking up the dose into the component during flight and the component during residence on the surface. Comparison has been made with previous published studies.
A key aspect of the mission planning and execution is the ability to immediately asses in real time the dose produced by a given space weather event. For this reason, eHeroes has developed a new analysis code, to be made available online on the eHeroes web site, which takes as input particle fluxes recorded by some specific satellites, such as ACE and GOES, and allows the user to choose some principal parameters related to shielding and geometric conditions. As output, the code gives the value of the effective dose and the ambient dose equivalent, both expressed in Sievert, according to recent radiation protection protocols. This eHeroes tool can be refined to take into account details of future missions and can operate in real time to help the astronauts monitor and manage their radiation exposure.