The two STEREO spacecraft were launched in late 2006. Since that time we have had unprecedented views of CMEs travelling through the inner heliopshere using wide-angle imaging with the Heliospheric Imagers (HI). We now have over five years of observations of CMEs in the heliosphere and have developed a range of tools for event identification, modelling and prediction. Here, we review the status of this work and provide pointers to future projects stemming from the HI experiences.

Our study focuses on the analysis of one interesting Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) detected by both SOHO/UVCS and STEREO on May 20, 2007. The event was a partial-halo CME associated with a prominence eruption, ejected form an active region (AR NOAA 10956) located close to the solar disk center, with a B9 class flare and a type-II radio burst. It produced a very symmetric, quite faint, hemispherical white-light front observed by SOHO and STEREO coronagraphs (at that time the angle between the STEREO A and B spacecrafts was about 8.8°). Moreover, the erupted flux-rope gave rise to a magnetic cloud, which was observed in situ by STEREO and WIND, and triggered significant geomagnetic storms since May 22.
We show that the UV spectral line emission derived by UVCS data during the CME propagation is blue-shifted up to velocities of 650 km/s (along the LOS), much larger than the velocities on the plane of the sky as inferred from LASCO/C2 images (150 km/s). The kinetic temperature of the oxygen ions in the CME front as inferred from O VI 1032A/1037Adoublet line profiles is about 9 MK, lower than the kinetic temperature of the undisturbed pre-CME corona.
The preliminary 3D reconstruction of the expanding front with pB ratio technique (applied to STEREO/COR1 and SOHO/LASCO data) and the 3D reconstruction of prominence trajectory via triangulation technique (applied to STEREO/EUVI data) are complemented by the constraints on the 3D expansion provided by the UVCS spectra. Reconstruction of the CME's 3D kinematic constrained by both coronagraphic and spectroscopic data is of fundamental importance for possible applications in the geomagnetic storms forecastings.

Assessing the geo-effectiveness of Earth-bound interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and increasing the advance warning time is one of the key challenges in space weather forecasting. The main parameters determining the intensity of a geomagnetic storm are the ICME velocity vector and magnetic field configuration. Fast ICMEs and southward-pointing magnetic field (Bz < 0) are thought to be necessary conditions for major geomagnetic storms.

While the speed, and hence the arrival time, of CMEs/ICMEs en route to Earth can be estimated from coronagraphy and heliographic imaging, there is currently no reliable remote-sensing method to measure Bz in advance of in-situ measurements at L1 (e.g. by Wind or ACE). However, it has been suggested to use the interaction of charged, micron-sized interplanetary dust particles with a CME to derive its magnetic field structure (Ragot & Kahler 2003).

We will present first results from dynamical models that simulate the interaction of an idealized CME with the ambient dust enviroment of the F corona. Radiative transfer models are used to generated synthetic maps of the scattered-light intensity. We will discuss the suitability of the method for space weather forecasting and lay out planned improvements of our modelling techniques.

The method could contribute to the development of an advanced space weather warning system in the framework of the EU FP7 Space Research project "Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Comminucations Through Space" (AFFECTS). We will argue that the measurements should best be done from one of the Lagrangian points L4 or L5, thereby strengthening the case for a constellation of space-weather spacecraft at sub-L1, L4 and L5.

Solar activity can trigger sporadic bursts of energetic particles in the solar wind and increase the number of high energy (MeV) particles trapped inside the Earth's radiation belts. These high energy particles cause damage to satellites and are a hazard for manned spaceflight and aviation. Here we focus on the high energy electrons. We describe the first European system to forecast the high energy electron radiation belts which has been developed as part of the EU FP7 SPACECAST project. The system is unique in that it uses physics based models and provides a forecast for the whole radiation belts including medium Earth orbit and geostationary orbit. We briefly describe how data on geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters are collected in near real time to a database operated by DH Consultancy in Belgium, processed, and then accessed by modelling centres in the UK and France. These data are used to drive independent computer models to forecast the high energy electron flux throughout the outer radiation belt for up to 3 hours ahead. The results are subsequently collected, post-processed and displayed on the SPACECAST web site (http://fp7-spacecast.eu/). We present model forecasts of the >800 keV integral electron flux during the 7-8 March 2012 geomagnetic storm which compare reasonably well with observations at geostationary orbit by the GOES satellite. During this magnetic storm there was also a large solar energetic particle event which prevented the ACE satellite from measuring the solar wind velocity correctly, and which contaminated the GOES >2 MeV electron flux. We show that by using a nowcast of the Kp index provided by the British Geological Survey we were able to continue forecasting the radiation belt electron flux throughout the storm successfully. The event illustrates that the SPACECAST forecasting system is robust. We also show that by extending the outer boundary of the model from L* = 6 to L* = 8, and by including wave-particle interactions in the outer magnetosphere, the electron forecasts are significantly improved. We present skill scores to quantify this improvement, and discuss how the data can be presented in the form of the 24 hour electron fluence >2 MeV for use by satellite operators.

The physical mechanisms responsible for heating the solar wind, for accelerating solar particles to high energies or for the injection and transfer of energy to and within the magnetosphere-ionosphere system are still largely debated. These gaps in theoretical understanding combined with the complexity of modeling space plasmas, force heliospheric space-weather forecasters to rely on simple empirical relations to specify boundary conditions such as: -the speed of the solar wind near the Sun or -the injection spectra of high-energy particles. IRAP and its associated data center CDPP are heavily involved in providing the data and tools necessary to analyze and relate the various space plasma data necessary to test our theoretical understanding of energy and momentum transfers. We will present how these new tools facilitate comparisons of solar imagery with in-situ measurements, why they are useful to analyze the data taken by current missions (STEREO, SDO, ACE, Wind, etc.), how they will be adapted to future missions (Solar Orbiter) and Solar Probe +. We will also present how these tools are useful for calibrating the inputs of the background solar wind used by current 3-D MHD modeling of the solar wind.

The NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov) is committed to providing forecasts, alerts, research, and educational support to address NASA's space weather needs - in addition to the needs of the general space weather community. We provide a host of services including spacecraft anomaly resolution, historical impact analysis, real-time monitoring and forecasting, custom space weather alerts and products, weekly summaries and reports, and most recently - video casts.

There are many challenges in providing accurate descriptions of past, present, and expected space weather events - and the Space Weather Center at NASA GSFC employs several innovative solutions to provide access to a comprehensive collection of both observational data, as well as space weather model/simulation data. We'll describe the challenges we've faced with managing hundreds of data streams, running models in real-time, data storage, and data dissemination. We'll also highlight several systems and tools that are utilized by the Space Weather Center in our daily operations, all of which are available to the general community as well. These systems and services include a web-based application called the Integrated Space Weather Analysis System (iSWA http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov), two mobile space weather applications for both IOS and Android devices, an external API for web-service style access to data, google earth compatible data products, and a downloadable client-based visualization tool.

A method to forecast, up to one hour in the future, the location of the aurora is described. The work is based on mathematical descriptions of the aurora ovals coupled to predicted values of the planetary Kp index. As a result, the ovals are mapped in position and time onto a solar illuminated surface model of the Earth. It displays both the night- and dayside together with the location of the twilight zone as Earth rotates under the ovals. The graphical display serves as a tool to forecast auroral activity, even to mobile phones. Status and further plans for the service will be presented.

The most threatening space weather effect for modern satellite based navigation and positioning systems is ionospheric scintillation, which is particularly complex at high latitudes. In order to evaluate the establishment of a reliable real-time monitoring of scintillation in this region, the Norwegian Mapping Authority (NMA) and the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) operate three Septentrio PolaRxS receivers at latitudes between 65°N and 80°N.
The scintillation receivers are located on Vega, in Tromso and in Ny-Alesund and are used to process signals from both GPS and GLONASS satellites with a sampling rate of up to 100Hz. Algorithms have been developed in order to determine the scintillation indices S4 and óoe in real-time with an update rate of one minute. The receivers ensure a robust detection of scintillation at high latitudes also during intense ionospheric disturbances.
We will present the first results of the real-time scintillation monitor. The observed ionospheric response will be discussed for selected time periods of strong solar activity recorded in 2012. Both time series and maps will be provided showing the temporal development and the spatial distribution of the occurrence of scintillation at high-latitudes. The resulting scintillation indices will be compared with the observed ROTI values (Rate-Of-TEC-Index) at the corresponding locations, which are obtained from the NMA Real-Time Ionospheric Monitor (RTIM).
In addition, overview maps have been developed that collect the information about the scintillation activity over the last 10 minutes. The maps consists of a simple three-step colour code indicating low, medium and strong scintillation and, currently, have a spatial resolution of 5x5 degree in longitude and latitude. These maps are intended for users, for example in avionic and maritime navigation industry, who are interested in a quick and reliable information about the location of ionospheric scintillation at high latitudes.

The UK high voltage transmission system is a complex network of more than 600 substation nodes and 1200 interconnecting lines, operating at 400 kV and 275 kV and connected to the lower voltage distribution system at 132kV and below. Modelling and understanding the flow of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in this network, caused by space weather, has previously been considered, for example by Beamish et al , 2002 and Thomson et al, 2005. These earlier papers made some simplifying assumptions about both the grid topology and the conductivity of Earth beneath the UK, as well as the conductivity of the surrounding seas and Atlantic Ocean. A representative picture of the geographical distribution of GIC 'hotspots' was deduced, in general agreement with results published on other national power networks; that is with larger GIC typically found towards coastal and physically remote sites.

Since 2010, a number of major developments have increased the detail represented within both the UK grid and conductivity models. These developments are partly a result of concerns at government level about the exposure of the UK grid to space weather, prompting studies of potential worst case scenarios for the UK system. In collaboration with the grid transmission operator, National Grid UK plc, we have therefore investigated the impact on individual transformers within the grid. At the same time, as part of the 'European Risk from GIC' (EURISGIC) EU-FP7 project, we have been developing an understanding of the response of the UK grid to space weather, in the wider European context, for hypothetical and historical events.

In this poster we review the major changes made to the BGS model of the UK's high voltage power transmission system, and to the model of UK conductivity from which we calculate the surface geo-electric field that drives GIC in the power system. We present results from these models for suggested worst case scenarios, where the rate-of-change of the horizontal magnetic field reaches 5000nT/min (compared with around 650 nT/min at the peak of the October 2003 'Halloween' geomagnetic storm). We compare these results with earlier models and, if space allows, compare also with results from the pan-European EURISGIC model, which contains a simplified representation of the UK grid. Our results show, for example, the impact on the likely distribution of GIC in the UK from adding the 132kV distribution network. These results suggest that lower voltage networks, which are generally of higher electrical resistance, may not be discounted in the modelling of some power systems.