Session 3A Solar Variability Effects on Climate
Session:
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Session 3a Solar Variability Effects on Climate
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Date: |
Wednesday 7 November 2012 |
Chair: |
T. Dudok de Wit (Univ. Orléans) & K. Matthes (GEOMAR) &
W. Schmutz (PMOD) |
Remarks: |
10:30-10:45 Splinter wrap up
10:45-11:30 Coffee Break & Poster Session
12:30-14:00 Lunch
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Time
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Title
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09:00
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Space weather at Mars: a major Driver for its Climate?
Leblanc, Francois
LATMOS, FRANCE
Mars' climate has changed significantly since 4.5 Gyr ago.
Many geological, minearological and atmospheric observations suggest
that Mars should have hosted, during parts of its history, a much
denser and wet atmosphere that at present. During the early age of the
solar system, Mars had probably a bar size atmosphere, with a water
reservoir equivalent to a 100 m water size ocean covering the whole
surface, with an intrinsic dynamo probably strong enough to protect the
atmosphere from any direct interaction with the solar wind and an
active volcanism. Today, Mars has a mbar size atmosphere, a water
reservoir of only few micro-meters, only a remanent crustal magnetic
field that does not contribute significantly to Mars' interaction with
the solar wind and a few Gyr old surface. What has been the fate of
Mars' atmosphere and its past climate are therefore one of the main
outstanding question regarding Mars. Mars' atmosphere could have
escaped into the space, a possibility that will be the main objective
of a US mission, MAVEN, that will be launched in 2013. Mars' atmosphere
could have been also reabsorbed into the Martian crust, a possibility
which was and is the subject of many Mars past and future missions
including Mars Science laboratory to be launched in 2012. The role of
the space weather at Mars is therefore the subject of many observations
and theoretical works. In this presentation, I will summarize our
present understanding of Mars' evolution, of the possible role of the
Sun and how space weather at Mars is integrated in our model of Mars'
past evolution.
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09:30
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The Response of the Troposphere and Surface to the 11-yr solar cycle Variability in idealized ensemble Simulations
Misios, Stergios1; Schmidt, Hauke2; Klairie, Tourpali1
1Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, GREECE;
2Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, GERMANY
The possible influence of the 11-yr solar cycle on the coupled
atmosphere-ocean system of the tropical Pacific has drawn considerable
attention in the recent years. Analyses of observations and historical
reconstructions detected either an El Niño-like warming or a La
Niña-like cooling in solar maxima. To examine the response of
the troposphere and surface to the 11-yr solar cycle we conduct
idealized ensemble simulations with the middle atmosphere version of
ECHAM5 coupled to two types of ocean models: a mixed layer and a
full-coupled dynamical model. To ease explanations, a sinusoidal solar
cycle of realistic amplitude is assumed. Our simulations do not support
the notion of a La Niña excitation in solar maxima. Instead, we
find that the tropical Pacific warms in solar maxima both in the mixed
layer and the full-coupled ensembles, with stronger warming in the
former ensemble. The tropical Pacific hydrology changes accordingly.
Although the tropical upper atmosphere responds immediately to the
solar forcing, the tropospheric response lags by 1 to 2 years, in rhyme
with the surface response. We further discuss mechanisms whereby the
simulated warming over the tropical Pacific may affect remote regions
as the North Atlantic Ocean and Europe. There, the full-coupled
ensemble successfully captures the solar cycle signals detected on
proxy-based surface temperature reconstructions.
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09:45
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Cosmic Ray induced aerosol Formation in Earth's aAmosphere
Jens Olaf Pepke, Pedersen
Danish Technical University, DENMARK
Cosmic rays penetrating Earth's atmosphere produces ions which
can enhance nucleation as shown by theory, observations, and
experiments, but the exact mechanism still remains to be determined. In
particular nucleation of the dipolar sulfuric acid - water system has
been investigated since ion-induced nucleation is expected to increase
the nucleation rate at the critical cluster size, where the charge
makes the small clusters more thermodynamically stable than their
neutral counterparts and thus reduces the energy barrier to nucleation.
Also the initial growth rates of small ion clusters
are found to be enhanced by the dipole-charge interaction between the
core ion and the strongly dipolar condensing sulfuric acid and/or water
molecules. In the initial phase these ion-molecule interactions greatly
accelerate the kinetics of molecular association. During the later
stages of aerosol growth (from 2-3 nm and larger) the effect of the ion
is expected to become small and the growth rate will be dominated by
the vapor pressure of the condensing species.
We have studied ion-induced nucleation of the sulfuric
acid - water system under a variety of conditions from an ultra-low
background radiation environment 1100 meter underground to ionization
densities far above the natural levels found in the atmosphere using a
particle accelerator. Together with recent advances in modeling this
has increased our understanding of the nucleation mechanism and the
role of ions.
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10:00
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Testing a Link between cosmic Rays and Cloudiness over daily Timescales
Čalogović, Jaša1; Laken, Benjamin2
1Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy - University of Zagreb, CROATIA;
2Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, SPAIN
Much debate still remains regarding a hypothesized link
between the solar-modulated cosmic ray (CR) flux and the Earth's cloud
properties influencing the climate. Recently, it was shown that
numerous long-term studies of satellite-based cloud observations are
limited by non-trivial disadvantages, such as: satellite data
intercalibration issues, view-angle biases, and the influences of
factors on cloud cover like ENSO and volcanic eruptions interfering
with the analyses.
Consequently, the reported studies have failed to present compelling
evidence of a CR-cloud link. The satellite-data limitations can be
resolved by focusing on short-term (daily) timescales using Forbush
decrease events and epoch-superpositional (composite) methods.
Unfortunately, these studies have also arrived at a range of
conflicting conclusions. It may be the case, that for the
short-timescale studies, a hypothesized CR induced signal in clouds may
be drowned in the meteorological noise, and noise may even be mixed
with the (likely far smaller) hypothesized signal. Using extensive
Monte Carlo simulation techniques and two most widely used satellite
cloud datasets (ISCCP and MODIS), we quantitatively demonstrate how the
high noise levels present in composites of small sample sizes, or for
overly isolated sample areas, may predominately account for the
inconsistent results obtained. Furthermore, we find that assumptions
made by classical statistical tests (like the Student's T-test) are
frequently violated by both the restricted samples and methods
frequently employed in the literature (such as normalization to an
averaging period). We conclude that such tests should be avoided, in
favor of MC simulations, which offer a far more robust method of
assessing significance and enabled us to correctly assess the
significance of some recent short-term studies purporting to identify
evidence of a CR-
cloud link.
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10:15
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Response of the fair weather electrical Current to geomagnetic Substorms at a desert Station in southern Israel
Yair, Yoav1; Price, Colin2; Elhalel, Gal2; Halatzi, Shy2
1The open Unviersity of Israel, ISRAEL;
2Tel-Aviv Uniersity, ISRAEL
The global electrical circuit (GEC) postulates a constant
downward flowing conductance current (Jz) equal to ~2 pA m-2 (Williams,
2009). Continued measurements of the vertical fair-weather atmospheric
electrical current have been carried out from May 2011 continuously at
Tel-Aviv University's Wise astronomical observatory in the Negev
desert, Israel (30° 35' 45" N, 34° 45iä 48" E, altitude
875m above sea level). The instrument we used is a modified version of
the GDACCS design described by Bennet and Harrison (2008) which is
capable of measuring the fair-weather current density with an accuracy
of 0.4 pA m-2. The sensors are placed on a flat 1.5m x 1.5m concrete
surface 150m away from the observatory. The signal is passed in a
differential mode to the computer at the observatory, sampled at 250Hz
by the data acquisition program (LabView) and saved to 1 minute files
with a GPS time stamp every 1 second. In addition to the Jz we collect
ELF data in the Schumann Resonance band, and record the vertical
component of the electrical field and the NS and EW magnetic field
components with an accuracy better than 0.1 pT.
While we easily note a diurnal variation in Jz,
dictated by the local meteorological conditions such as wind speed,
relative humidity and dust concentrations, there are some clear
anomalies which differ from background conditions. We report
preliminary indications for a response in Jz to changes in geomagnetic
conditions during storms induced by solar flares, as evident from the
correlation we find between fluctuations in Jz and the flux of solar
protons >10 MeV in solar quiescent and storm conditions. Large
values of the variance of the conductance current were observed during
3 different Coronal Mass Ejections, which included solar proton events
(SPE) on 26/09/2011, 25/10/2011 and 08/03/2012. We infer this behavior
as a response of the global electrical circuit to solar activity
leading to enhancement of the ionospheric electric field, as suggested
by Belova et al. (2001).
Belova, E., S. Kirkwood and H. Tammet (2001), The
effect of magnetic substorms on near-ground atmospheric current. Annal.
Geophys., 18, 1623-1629.
Bennett, A.J., Harrison, R.G. (2009), Evidence for
global circuit current flow through water droplet layers. J. Atmos.
Sol. Terr Phys. 71 (12), 1219"C1221, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2009.04.011.
Williams, E. R. (2009), The global electrical circuit, Atmos. Res., 91, 2-4, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.05.018
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11:30
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Solar variability Effects on Climate
Beer, Juerg
Eawag, SWITZERLAND
It is well accepted that the Sun is the engine which drives
the climate system. It is also well known that the Sun is variable
star. This raises the important question to what extent solar
variability causes climate change. This question is still
controversially debated. Some people believe that solar forcing is a
dominant factor while others claim that its effect on climate is
negligible.
A final answer is difficult for several reasons.
Direct satellite based measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI)
are only available for about 35 years, a period of generally high solar
activity. The change of TSI during an 11-y cycle is small (typically
0.1%) and the radiometers show considerably degrading effects which
have to be corrected for.
For the past 400 years the best information available
is the sunspot number which reflects basically the magnetic activity on
the solar surface. Beside the 11-y cycle it shows clear indications of
longer cycles (e.g. 87-y Gleissberg cycle) and the existence of grand
minima, periods of 50-100 years when almost no sunspots could be
observed (e.g. Maunder Minimum).
To extend the record of solar activity much further
one has to rely on indirect proxies of solar magnetic activity,
so-called cosmogenic radionuclides such as 14C and 10Be. These
cosmogenic radionuclides are produced in the atmosphere by cosmic ray
particles interacting with the atoms of nitrogen and oxygen. The
production rate of cosmogenic radionuclides is modulated by the solar
wind which acts as a magnetic shield against cosmic rays. The more
active the Sun the lower is the production rate. After production some
of these cosmogenic radionuclides become stored in natural archives;
14C in tree rings, 10Be in polar ice sheets.
These records allow us to reconstruct the history of
solar activity for the past 10,000 years. They tell us a lot about the
Sun and its relative long-term behaviour. However, it is very difficult
to figure out how much in Watt per square meter TSI has changed in the
past. Nevertheless there is growing evidence for solar induced climate
change in the past.
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12:00
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Solar Irradiance in cycle 23:
Modelling of TSI and SSI by synoptic intensity Observations
Ermolli, Ilaria1; Criscuoli, Serena2; Giorgi, Fabrizio3
1INAF OAR, ITALY;
2National Solar Observatory, UNITED STATES;
3INAF Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, ITALY
An apparently unusual behaviour of the Total Solar Irradiance
(TSI) during the last solar minimum, together with unexpected trends of
the spectral irradiance variations measured over the declining phase of
the last solar cycle, and the registered failure of some irradiance
models to reproduce TSI measurements
have been interpreted as new evidences of a fraction
of the measured solar irradiance variability unexplained by the
evolution of surface magnetism.
On the other hand, newest results put the
responability of these inconsistencies to calibration problems of both
total and spectral irradiance measurements.
We use the synoptic full-disk observations carried out
with the PSPT telescopes and results of the spectral synthesis
performed on semi-empirical atmospherical models to reconstruct
measurements of both TSI and SSI variations from 1997 to 2012. We also
investigate the contribution to the measured iirradiance variations of
the various solar features resolved on PSPT observations.
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12:15
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What can we learn about the Sun with PREMOS/PICARD?
Shapiro, Alexander; Cessateur, Gaël; Schmutz, Werner; Tagirov, Rinat
PMOD/WRC, SWITZERLAND
The spectral solar irradiance is a key input parameters to
atmospheric/oceanic and space weather models. It varies on time scales
ranging from minutes to millennia, and its variability is strongly
wavelength-dependent. Despite many efforts, a complete picture of the
solar irradiance variability is still missing. The data from the recent
European mission PICARD with PREMOS package onboard provides therefore
valuable information and is able to nourish theoretical models. This
instrument covers the solar spectrum from the UV to near-infrared. The
PREMOS measurements were carefully corrected for the degradation and
cleaned for non-solar signatures. We provide a comparison with the
VIRGO/SOHO and SOLSTICE+SIM/SORCE data.
We employ the recently developed and published COde
for Solar Irradiance (COSI) to model the solar variability as observed
by PREMOS. We discuss different physical mechanisms which are
responsible for formation of the solar spectrum at different
wavelengths. The comparison between PREMOS measurements and COSI
calculations is used to test and constrain the existing models of the
solar atmosphere.
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