Due to significant spatial and temporal changes in the cosmic radiation field, radiation measurements with advanced dosimetric instruments on-board spacecrafts, aircrafts and balloons are very important. The Hungarian CoCoRAD Team was selected to take part in the BEXUS (Balloon Experiment for University Students) project. In the frame of the BEXUS programme Hungarian students from the Budapest University of Technology and Economics will carry out scientific experiments on a research balloon, which will be launched in September of this year.
The objective of the Combined TriTel/Pille Cosmic Radiation and Dosimetric Measurements (CoCoRAD) is to measure the effects of the cosmic radiation at lower altitudes where measurements with orbiting spacecrafts are not possible due to the strong atmospheric drag. This way it will be also possible to make intercomparison of the measured doses and the first time to use the Linear Energy Transfer (LET) spectra measured by the TriTel 3D silicon detector telescope for corrections during data evaluation of the Pille thermoluminescent dosimeters.
By evaluating the deposited energy spectra recorded by TriTel and the glow curve obtained after the on-ground read-out of the retrieved Pille dosimeters, the LET spectra, the average quality factor of the cosmic radiation as well as the absorbed dose and the dose equivalent can be determined. The results of the two measurements will be intercompared and will be used to make an estimation of the doses that might be expected during launch of manned space flights or even commercial air flights.
This paper will present the main objectives of the CoCoRAD experiment, the radiation environment in the altitude range of the BEXUS balloon, the overview of the experiment and the first data evaluation results.

Forecasting the arrival of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) and their intensities at a given location in space is a key objective of a space weather alert system. We model SEP propagation within the interplanetary magnetic field, with the eventual aim of a rapid and reliable warning system for SEP events. This will be implemented within the FP7 COMESEP (Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: Forecasting the Space Weather Impact) Alert System. We present simulations of particle propagation obtained via a full-orbit test particle numerical code, including the effects of cross-field transport, for various configurations of the large-scale interplanetary magnetic field and additional perturbations across multiple scales. We study a variety of particle injection functions and investigate their effect on SEP intensities measured e.g. near Earth. This work will lead to the development of an optimised rapid-response modelling system of SEP events, crucial for space weather impact warnings. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

The exploitation experience of space ionizing irradiation exposure on electronic components engineering Monitoring System elements is discussed. The subjects considered are the space-borne control of TID effects on electronic components, the ground-based control of some space weather characteristics and the ground-based space weather forecast station functioning.
The base component of space-born segment is set of TID sensors, operating on MNOSFET dosinetry principle. More than 20 TID sensors were placed onboard more than 10 spacecraft at the circular orbit ~20000 km since October 2008. The analysis of the flight data in 2011 is presented. It is observed anomalous increasing dose rate at February (in ~6 times) and March (in ~ 15 times). The analysis of the other space weather characteristics was carried out for same dates, such as 2 MeV electron fluence from the GOES, the average dose rate from the International Space Station and the ground measurements of cosmic rays variations by Moscow Neutron Monitor.
In order to improve the measurement accuracy and to expand the measurement range a new multiple-counting TID sensors were developed and fabricated. Each sensor contains three pairs of sensitive elements (MNOSFET. This multiple-counting TID sensors allows to measure the ionizing irradiation exposure on electronic components in three dose range with different sensitivity. The sensors passed calibration tests successfully.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most important drivers of the space weather and, therefore, most studies focus on the fast and thus most dangerous events. However, the 'typical' or average CME propagates at a velocity close to the slow solar wind speed and, especially during solar minimum, fast CMEs are in fact rather exceptional.
Yet, also the magnetic clouds associated to the slower CMEs are recognised to be able to cause significant geomagnetic disturbances. In this research a CME was simulated under solar minimum conditions and its propagation was followed up to 1AU.
The CME was initiated by shearing the magnetic footpoints of a magnetic arcade which was positioned north of the equatorial plane and embedded in a larger helmet streamer. The overlying magnetic field deflects the CME towards the equator, and the deflection path is dependent on the driving velocity. The core of the CME contains a magnetic flux rope and the density shows the typical three-part CME structure.
The resulting CME propagates only slightly faster than the background solar wind, but the excess speed is high enough to create a fast MHD shock wave from a distance of 0.25AU onwards. At 1AU the plasma shows the typical characteristics of a magnetic cloud, and the simulated data are in good agreement with the observations.

We study a CME-CME interaction that occurred during the 2010 August 1 events using STEREO/SECCHI data (COR and HI). The CMEs were Earth directed where clear signatures of magnetic flux ropes could be measured from in situ Wind data. To present evidence of the actual interaction we derive the direction of motion for both CMEs applying several independent methods. We obtain that both CMEs head into similar directions enabling us to actually observe the merging in the HI1 field-of-view (and rule out the possibility that this is just a line of sight effect). The full de-projected kinematics of the faster CME from Sun to Earth is derived when combining data points from remote observations with in situ parameters of the ICME measured at 1 AU. In addition, we study the evolution of the kinematical profile of the faster CME by applying a drag based model. We test the drag based model with respect to being a tool for space weather forecasting.

Single-frequency ionospheric delay retrieval opens up the opportunity to establish a monitoring network with single-frequency Galileo E5 receivers, which are considerably less expensive than multi-frequency devices. The algorithm estimates the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) above a station using single-frequency Galileo E5 GNSS data from all available satellites.
The SF_VTEC retrieval algorithm makes use of the code-minus-carrier (CMC) principle. The Galileo E5 AltBOC signal features a significantly lower multipath influence and a very low noise level of the code range measurements compared to present GNSS signals. Subtracting the carrier phase measurements from the code range measurement leaves only the ionospheric delay and the ambiguity term of the carrier phase measurements.
CMC observables for all satellites were interpolated as a function of longitude and latitude to the receiver zenith by mean of a polynomial function. The parameters (ambiguity term and interpolation parameters) were solved by using a least squares adjustment procedure. Validation of this method was done using IONEX maps, IRI-2007 and NeQuick models. Validation results showed that the algorithm performs reasonably well in comparison with IONEX map, IRI-2007 and NeQuick models' prediction.

On the basis of the Harmonic Mean (HM) and Fixed-Phi methods we present a new approach to derive kinematics and propagation directions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). By combining remote observations from Sun to 1 AU by STEREO/HI and in-situ measurements of the Wind and STEREO-B spacecraft at 1 AU, we make the derived kinematical ICME profiles as consistent as possible with in situ data. Within the limitations of the geometrical assumptions that are used for the shape of the ICME, the improved methods aim to isolate the kinematics from that part of the CME which is most probably directed to the in situ spacecraft. The methods are applied and tested on observational data from three well observed ICME events (1-6 June 2008, 13-18 February 2009, 3-5 April 2010). This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

Abstract
Ground based measurements of slant total electron content (TEC) can be assimilated into ionospheric models to produce 3D representations of ionospheric electron density. Scaled ionograms (i.e. virtual height returns as a function of frequency) can also be assimilated into models. However, significant problems remain in controlling the interactions between these two data types and the background model.

The Electron Density Assimilative Model (EDAM) has been developed by QinetiQ [Angling and Khattatov, 2006 Angling et al., 2009] to assimilate disparate ionospheric measurements (including ground and space based total electron content (TEC) measurement, true height profiles from ionosondes and incoherent scatter radars and electron density data from in-situ sensors) into a background ionospheric model. This model is currently provided by IRI2007 [Bilitza and Reinisch, 2007].

EDAM exploits optimal data assimilation techniques that have been developed in the meteorological community over the past few decades. The philosophy has been to design a system that will operate on a single PC, which will continue to provide physical results with very sparse data and from which products can be derived for a range of RF systems. A previous study [Angling and Jackson-Booth, 2011], has shown that assimilating both GPS and ionosonde data into EDAM can result in low foF2 (the F2 layer o-mode critical frequency) and TEC residuals. This is achieved by modifying the ionospheric slab thickness. However, this study was limited to an examination of post-assimilation residual values (i.e. the test data was not independent of the input data) and to a short time period (one day). This paper will extend the analysis to overcome these limitations. Ionosonde and GPS data from the Republic of South Africa (RSA) will be assimilated for two month long periods (November 2008 and February/March 2009). The EDAM assimilation output will be tested against data from an independent ionosonde and GPS-TEC receiver. The results will also be compared to those of IRI (which is used as the EDAM background model).

Acknowledgements
EDAM has been developed under funding from the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence Science and Technology program. IGS data was obtained from the SOPAC Data Centre. Differential code biases were obtained from the Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe. The ionograms were collected by the RSA Digisonde network operated by the Hermanus Magnetic Observatory and the scaled data was provided to QinetiQ by the US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) as part of a continuing program of cooperation.

References
Angling, M. J., and N. K. Jackson-Booth (2011), A short note on the assimilation of collocated and concurrent GPS and ionosonde data into the Electron Density Assimilative Model, Rad. Sci., 46(RS0D13)
Angling, M. J., and B. Khattatov (2006), Comparative study of two assimilative models of the ionosphere, Rad. Sci., 41(RS5S20).
Angling, M. J., J. Shaw, A. K. Shukla, and P. S. Cannon (2009), Development of an HF frequency selection tool based on the EDAM near real time ionosphere, Rad. Sci, 44(RS0A13).
Bilitza, D., and B. W. Reinisch (2008), International Reference Ionosphere 2007: Improvements and new parameters, J. Adv. Space Res., 42(4), 599-609.

Recent STEREO and combined STEREO-Proba2 observations enabled to study the three-dimensional
structure of CMEs and accompanying EUV waves in more detail. The basic 3D structure of a growing wave front was found to be dome-shaped and it could be separated from an expanding CME (Patsourakos & Vourlidas (2009), Veronig et al. (2010)). We investigate, by means of 3D MHD simulations, the formation of EUV waves as the result of the interaction of a dipolar Active Region (AR) with a bipolar field of lower strength. The simulation is initialized with an idealized dipolar AR with gravitationally stratified mass density and includes a background solar wind. The system becomes unstable due to the flux emergence. We study the 3D structure of the global coronal waves accompanying the CME as well as their temporal evolution.

Present UV/VUV/EUV detectors exhibit serious limitations in performance, technology complexity and lifetime (often employing intensifiers, e.g. MCPs and/or converters/phosphors). Improving the former represents today the major technological challenge in detector development overall.
Wide-bandgap semiconductors are the primary choice as the photo-sensitive material for high-energy photon detection (i.e. short wavelengths beyond the visible: in the (E)UV). The most rapidly maturing material having recently seen substantial development are AlGaN, diamond and cBN; mostly motivated by their advantages over Silicon especially for electronic components development. By their nature, wide band gap materials are insensitive to visible light, have a much lower thermally induced dark current component, and are radiation hard semiconductor (as opposed to Si). Furthermore, heavy ion radiation tests have proven their virtual immunity to several Mrad level (limited by the source). Solar blind UV detectors are needed in an increasing number of applications including astronomical and UV solar flux monitor. In particular, the next envisaged K-STAR mission planned to also study the Sun urgently requires innovative UV detectors to which there is no alternative.
In this work we present that the best suitable detection layer design and processing technique(s), all critical areas, and their impact on the overall performance including laboratory experiments and simulations by assembling all available data.

The STEREO (Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory) mission provides observations from two different vantage points. We use coronagraphic observations from SECCHI COR1 and COR2 instruments covering in total a field of view from 1.4 to 15 R_Sun to measure the CME mass evolution. Combining the results from each vantage point we are able to estimate the 'true' CME mass evolution as well as the direction of motion of the CME. At a certain height the CME mass remains constant. For a small sample of events, covering solar minimum as well as the rising phase of solar activity, we derive the final mass and the scale height at which the CME mass reaches 63% of its final value. A comparison between these subgroups is presented.

Multi-satellite, multi-instrument and ground based observations analysis and study of ULF wave phenomena and products (ULFwave) is a new ESA funded study. This project combines multi-spacecraft with ground-based monitoring of the geospace environment in order to analyze and study ULF waves; in this framework, the project will also develop and deliver relevant tools. In the preparation phase of the Swarm mission, the analysis of specific ULF wave events can help to explain the processes that play a crucial role in the generation of waves and evolution of specific propagation characteristics. The latter is expected to be coupled with radiation belt and ring current dynamics. Data from CHAMP and the ongoing Cluster and THEMIS missions can be used to study this interrelation in detail. A better understanding of the generation and propagation of waves will also allow to geophysically validate some of Swarm's data products, especially those related to the magnetic and electric fields in the magnetosphere.

The population of relativistic electrons in the radiation belts is highly dynamic. Since relativistic electrons can be hazardous to both spacecraft and humans the prediction of the electron flux throughout the radiation belts is an active area of research. We present results from the BAS Global Radiation Belt Model that has been developed as part of the SPACECAST project to simulate the state of the radiation belts, driven only by the Kp index. The model includes radial diffusion, collisions with the atmosphere and wave-particle interactions with both Chorus waves and Plasmaspheric Hiss. Kp dependent boundary conditions have been developed using data from the CRRES mission. The model can be used both for forecasting and to recreate the state of the radiation belts in the past. Results show the relative importance of the different processes as well as the need to correctly model the boundary conditions.

The main part of the Earthís atmosphere presented by neutral species is still "terra incognita". Direct observations of thermospheric neutral composition, temperature and winds are complicated and expensive. Therefore one hardly may hope to have any thermosphere monitoring system in the nearest future, on the other hand there is a necessity in such system to efficiently support satellitesí orbitography. The use of world-wide routine ionospheric observations at F2-region heights to retrieve thermospheric parameters may be considered as a solution. A method using observed Ne(h) profiles in the ionospheric F-region to retrieve neutral temperature Tn, atomic oxygen [O], molecular nitrogen [N2] as well as vertical plasma drift which may be converted to the effective meridional thermospheric wind has been developed. Ion composition is also available as a result of model calculations. The method was tested using Millstone Hill ISR as well as digisonde Ne(h) profiles to compare with CHAMP neutral density observations in October 2002. Although adjustments related with the use of real time Digisonde Ne(h) profiles need to be done, the method shows certain potential to provide a system for monitoring the Earthís thermosphere based on the worldwide network of ionosondes.

Hatch of experimental facility closed at 3 June 2010 and the 520-day isolation study started. The first full simulation of a mission to Mars and back is proceeding in the special facility at the Institute of Biomedical Problems in Moscow. Mars-500 is being conducted by Russian Space Agency and Russian Academy of Sciences, with extensive participation of ESA to prepare for future human missions to the Moon and Mars.
The Mars - 500 facilities provide the unique opportunity to explore some aspects linked to individual and social adaptation to isolated and confined conditions. Our interest focuses on microcirculation study of subjects during long term isolation, including possible reaction of microcirculation parameters on geomagnetic field variations. The earlier studies established that reaction of human organism on geomagnetic activity was following by blood coagulation, rise in blood viscosity and deterioration of microcirculation parameters (Gurfinkel et al.1995). Gmitrov and Ohkubo (2002) also found a significant negative correlation between geomagnetic field disturbances and microcirculation.
There are six crewmembers including two medical doctors. In order to better understand the subjects' adaptive responses, the protocol investigates: their perception of the environmental constraints; their individual adaptive processes; their recovery capabilities, especially after an episode of acute stress and after the mission; the evolution of interpersonal relationships within the crew members. The obtained information is interesting from the scientific point of view and useful as allows adjusting operatively correction for a diet, physical activities, etc.
The medical module of facility equipped by optical capillaroscope developed by Russian company "Advanced energy technologies" LTD, and time to time medical doctors made records in medical module of the facility. We have an opportunity to receive these records via inner net for processing.
Preliminary study indicates significant delay of capillary blood velocity during magnetic storms if Ap>30. After processing whole data we will have opportunity to value all accessible physiological parameters and to compare it with corresponding methods of researches, which were carried out at crewmembers of a Martian team. The end of the mission is planning on 4th November this year.

In the frame of the ESA MEO project (ESA/ESTEC Contract No. 21403/08/NL/JD), electron environment specification models have been developed to assess long term dose and charging effects for spacecraft operating in navigation (medium-Earth) orbits. The long term model, thus developed within the energy range 0.1-6.4MeV, has been compared with AE8 min and max, showing AE8 underestimates fluxes for energies greater than 3 MeV. This model is validated with data from the SURF instrument on Giove-A. MEO output spectra are folded through SURF response functions to produce charging currents for comparison to instrument data. Five years (2006-2010) of charging current from three charging plates are obtained from SURF. A comparison is also proposed with data from SREM instrument on Giove-B. Count-rate data, acquired during the period 2008-2011, are yearly averaged for each counter and compared with model fluxes convolved with SREM response functions. The model is in good agreement with both datasets; the only noteworthy point thus far is that 2009 was an unusually quiet year for trapped electron fluxes, and thus the data are likely to be deviate from the model somewhat in this year.

Gyroresonant wave particle interactions with whistler mode chorus play a fundamental role in the dynamics of the Earth's radiation belts and inner magnetosphere, affecting both the acceleration and loss of radiation belt electrons. Knowledge of the variability of chorus wave power as a function of both spatial location and geomagnetic activity, required for the computation of pitch angle and energy diffusion rates, is thus a critical input for global radiation belt models. In this study we present a new global model of lower band (0.1fce < f < 0.5fce) and upper band (0.5fce < f < fce) chorus using CRRES, Double Star TC-1 and THEMIS observations, extending both the coverage and improving the statistics of existing models. In the equatorial region (|λm| < 15^o) chorus intensities are largest in the lower-band with intensities of the order of 1000 pT² during active conditions in the region 4 < L < 9 over a range of local times, primarily from 2100 MLT through dawn to 1200 MLT. Equatorial upper-band chorus is both weaker and less extensive, with intensities of the order of a few hundred pT² during active conditions in the region 3 < L < 8 over a similar range of local times. At mid-latitudes (15^o < |λm| < 45^o) the chorus intensities are largest in the lower-band with intensities which are also of the order of 1000 pT² during active conditions in the region 4 < L < 9, but which, at these latitudes, are restricted to the day-side, primarily from 0700 to 1400 MLT. In sharp contrast, mid-latitude upper band chorus is extremely weak, even during active conditions, with intensities typically less than 1 pT².

Particle observations at geostationary orbit shows that only 53% of geomagnetic storms result in a net increase in the electron flux while 19% result is a net decrease and the flux remains almost the same for the remaining 18% of storms (Reeves et al., 2003). These observations clearly demonstrate that the relative importance of all competing physical processes involved in the radiation belt dynamics changes from storm to storm and the net result on particle distribution might be then very different. Even if the key physical processes that govern the dynamics of radiation belts are identified today, their temporal evolution (dynamics) is not well-understood. These are the main limitations of the current pure physical modelling of radiation belt dynamics. The most common practice is to deduce empirical formula from statistical studies where physical processes are then driven by one or more proxies like Kp, Dst and/or solar wind parameters. This introduces errors, which become even more important for high magnetic activity where statistics are usually poor. On the other hand, past observational studies use data from single or limited multiple points in space are limited due to poor coverage of measurements (Friedel et al., 1999).

To guide radiation belt model to converge toward the "best estimate" of the time dependent radiation belt state, a particle data assimilation tool based on the Salammbô physical model and an ensemble Kalman filter has been developed. The current approach consists in a filtered data assimilation technique termed The Kalman Filter (Kalman - Bucy, 1961). The Kalman filter is a sequential method that performs a maximum likelihood estimation between weighted current observations and weighted predicted state of the radiation belt at one time. A sequence is composed of two steps: the forecast and update steps. During the forecast step, the Kalman filter takes into account the fact that the initial state and the model are not perfect. The benefit is represented by the propagation forward in time of a matrix containing variance and covariance of errors at each grid points. Monte Carlo techniques are applied in order to sample and thus approximate the error-covariance matrix. The basic idea is to construct an ensemble of m initial states such that the mean of the ensemble is the initial state of the Kalman filter and whose dispersion is an approximation of the initial error-covariance matrix. Consequently, the computational cost is reduced to the propagation and the update of an ensemble matrix A containing m states of N phase space density grid points, where m is of the order of 200 only. The time evolution of the covariance approximation is done by evolving all the individual ensemble members using the Salammbô 3D radiation belt model. Instead of diffusing the uncertainties contained in the error-covariance matrix for the Kalman Filter, the ensemble states are spread into the state space. Only during the update step, the sample covariance of the ensemble A is calculated in order to correct the model forecast using the new set of observations.

Results obtained during the October 1990 storm will be shown and data assimilation with an ensemble Kalman filter will be discussed.

This report presents an application of the multicriteria optimization method to the prediction of the Dst index by using nonlinear discrete dynamical model. Two novel algorithms of the identification of discrete input-output models have been developed. They allow predicting the Dst index with high level of confidence. Using the data on the solar wind as the model input and Dst index data as the output allows us to model the magnetospheric dynamics, which is responsible for the Dst storms. To verify the algorithms, several testing approaches have been used [1,2]. The possibility of the nine-step ahead prediction of the local Lyapunov exponent using a discrete dynamical model for systems with chaotic behavior has been shown. The result of predictions within one-step ahead approach has demonstrated a relatively high correlation (0,97) with the real outcome. The coefficient, however still decreases for larger time scales.
We have developed a model that predicts geomagnetic storms which are characterized by the Dst index. The model is able to forecast for 100 hours ahead, by basing on the data on the solar wind. The prediction model uses a nonlinear discrete equation. The obtained prognosis is highly correlated with the actual Dst index. The correlation coefficient is in range of 0.9-0.95. We have also compared our model with the well-known space weather prediction model developed at the University of Sheffield [3]. The accuracy of our model can be slightly improved if the real-time estimation algorithms for parameters are used.

This research was supported by the EU-funded collaborative project AFFECTS, EC-GA No. 263506.

References
1. O.K.Cheremnykh, V.I.Sidorenko, V.AYatsenko. Space Science and Technology, 14, No.1, 77(2008)(in Russian)
2. O.K.Cheremnykh, V.AYatsenko, O.Seminiv, Yu. Shatokhina. Ukr. Phys.J., 53, No.5, 502 (2008).
3. M.Balikhin, I.Bates, and S.N.Walker. Adv. Space Res. 28, 787(2001)

We present a new space weather online forecast-tool for predicting the arrival of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs). The forecast-tool is based on the "Drag-Based Model" (DBM), developed in the frame of the European Commission FP7 Project SOTERIA (SOlar-TERrestrial Investigations and Archives) and advanced within FP7 Project COMESEP (Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles). The DBM is based on the hypothesis that the driving Lorentz force that launches CME ceases in the upper corona, and that beyond certain distance the dynamics becomes governed solely by the interaction of the ICME and the ambient solar wind. This assumption is founded on the fact that in the interplanetary space fast ICMEs decelerate, whereas slow ones accelerate, showing a tendency to adjust their velocity with the ambient solar wind. In particular, we consider the option where the drag acceleration has the quadratic dependence on the ICME relative speed, which is expected in the collisionless environment, where the drag is caused primarily by emission of MHD waves. This is the simplest version of DBM, where the equation of motion can be solved analytically, providing explicit solutions for the Sun-Earth ICME transit time and the impact speed. DBM offers easy handling and straightforward application in the real-time space-weather forecasting. DBM results are compared with remotely-measured interplanetary kinematics of several ICMEs, whereas forecasting abilities are validated on the statistical basis by employing in situ measurements. Finally, the advantages and drawbacks of DBM are summarized. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

We analyze the light curves of the recent solar eclipses measured by the PREMOS instrument onboard PICARD mission. The PREMOS comprises two experiments, one observing solar irradiance in five spectral channels (two UV, one visible and two near infrared) with filter radiometers and the other measuring the total solar irradiance with absolute radiometers.

Recently PREMOS observed several solar eclipses. Analysis of the irradiance variations during the eclipses allowed us to derive center-to-limb variations (CLV) of the solar brightness. The formation height of solar radiation depends on the observing angle and wavelength. Therefore the CLV retrieved from the measurements in different spectral channels provide important information about a broad range of heights in the solar atmosphere and are valuable for adjusting and refining the radiative transfer models. Furthermore the CLV determine the irradiance variations on the time-scale of the solar rotation. The analysis of the PREMOS UV measurements is of importance for climate modeling as the UV radiation directly affects the stratospheric ozone and temperature.

We employ the radiative transfer COde for Solar Irradiance (COSI) to model the CLV and the eclipse light curves. We compare the theoretical results with the PREMOS measurements and discuss the constrains which our analysis of the eclipses can impose on the models of the solar atmosphere.

A similar analysis of the eclipse light curves was recently performed using the measurements by the Herzberg channel of LYRA instrument onboard PROBA-2 mission. We compare main results and show that the measurements in five spectral channels of PREMOS allow us to significantly complement the analysis of the LYRA measurements.

The Solar and Terrestrial Physics (STP) division within the National Geophysical Data Center is responsible for scientific data stewardship of space environmental information and derived products obtained from U.S. operational satellite systems and related data sources. Administrative orders within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) require the STP effectively manage environmental data in accordance with accepted standards such as the Open Archival Information System (OAIS). STP manages space weather data from the Polar Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) missions which are provided to the scientific community in a variety of user-accessible formats. Online access to the full records of POES and GOES space weather data are available respectively from 1978 and 1974 to present. Also available online are the daily and other periodic reports from NOAA's operational Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) including detailed information on solar phenomena and general solar-terrestrial conditions. STP manages several other relevant datasets including space environmental data from the United States Air Force, the National Geodetic Survey, the Ionosonde Network Advisory Group and other providers. Potential future NOAA datasets include space weather products from the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) and the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC-2) missions. This talk will provide an overview of STP with an emphasis on available and future datasets.

We are setting up empirical space weather (geomagnetic storms, solar proton events, and solar flares) forecast models based on solar information. These models are based on the concept of probabilistic forecast using historical events. Major findings can be summarized as follows. First, we presented a concept of storm probability map depending on CME parameters. Second, we suggested a new geoeffective CME parameter, earthward direction parameter, and demonstrated its importance in terms of the forecast of geomagnetic storms. Third, the importance of solar magnetic field orientation for storm occurrence was examined. Fourth, the CIR forecast based on coronal hole information is possible but the storm forecast is challenging. Fifth, we are looking for geoeffective parameters such as cone model parameters and the earthward direction parameter. Sixth, a new proton event forecast method depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameter (speed and angular width) has been suggested. Seventh, we are examining the probability of solar flares depending on sunspot McIntosh classification and its area change (as a proxy of flux change).

One of the key links of space weather is connection between interplanetary drivers and magnetospheric reaction. We investigate relative role of various types of solar wind streams in generation of magnetic storms. On the basis of the OMNI data of interplanetary measurements for the period of 1976-2000 we analyze 798 geomagnetic storms with Dst<-50 nT and their interplanetary sources: corotating interaction regions (CIR), interplanetary CME (ICME) including magnetic clouds (MC) and Ejecta and compression regions Sheath before both types of ICME. For various types of solar wind we study following relative characteristics: occurrence rate; mass, momentum, energy and magnetic fluxes; probability of generation of magnetic storm (geoeffectiveness) and efficiency of process of this generation. Obtained results show that despite magnetic clouds have lower occurrence rate and lower efficiency than CIR and Sheath they play an essential role in generation of magnetic storms due to higher geoeffectiveness of storm generation (i.e. higher probability to contain large and long-term southward IMF Bz component).

Monitoring of Space Weather imposes high demands on the estimation and prediction of critical physical parameters of the ionosphere. The critical frequency of F2 region, foF2, and the peak height, hmF2, play an important role not only in HF communication, but also in satellite communication and space based GNSS systems for navigation, positioning, guidance and control. Total Electron Content (TEC) is one of the main parameters that represent the ionospheric variability in space and time. Although there have been attempts in literature to use TEC in Computerized Ionospheric Tomography (CIT) to obtain electron density profiles, and thus, the ionospheric critical frequency and peak height, yet, conversion of GIM-TEC to foF2 and hmF2 through CIT techniques are time consuming, neither cost-effective nor accurate enough for conversion of TEC into foF2 and hmF2 on a global scale. Experimental foF2 and hmF2 values are presented only by a very sparse ionosonde network. In this study, to meet the demand for various operational purposes, the instantaneous ionospheric maps of the F2 layer peak parameters, available so far for foF2 and M3000F2 only on a regional scale from a few data centers, are extended to global maps of foF2 and hmF2. The globally acknowledged model of the ionosphere, International Reference Ionosphere extended to the plasmasphere up to the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite height of 20,200 km (IRI-Plas) is used in assimilative mode of operation using the GPS-derived Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM-TEC) as input. Since October 2010, UPC, Barcelona, Spain (one of the IGS centers that produce GIM) started to provide GIM on an hourly basis using Kriging interpolation (ftp://cddis.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/gps/products/ionex/). Currently, hourly UPC-GIM maps are provided from 2002 and onwards for selected periods of time. In 2012, all the maps starting from 1998 will be made available. In this study, the hourly UPC-GIM, complemented with ESA-produced forecast of IGS maps, are used as an input to IRI-Plas to produce global instantaneous maps of foF2 and hmF2 for selected dates. The paper discusses the outcome of proposed technique and highlights the prospects of providing the global maps of the ionosphere peak parameters on-line for modeling purposes and operational usage.

This study is supported by the joint grant from TUBITAK EEEAG 110E296 and RFBR 11-02-91370-CT_a.

The facts of reaction of human cardiovascular system on action of space and terrestrial weather have been earlier repeatedly established. Actual now is the question, which departments of cardiovascular system of each concrete person, and in what measure react to action of these factors?
In the given work individual measurements were spent by healthy volunteers of middle age (12 persons) throughout 2007-2011 in Moscow; duration of number of measurements was for different volunteers from 100 to 1100. The physiological parameters (PHP) reflecting a functional condition of following departments of cardiovascular system (NVS) were measured: 1) heart rate (pulse (HR), its variability (HRV), and degrees of expressiveness and localization of electrophysiological infringements in a myocardium (myocardium index MI)), 2) the main arteries (level of systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure), 3) and also intensity of a blood-flow in vessels of a sub capillary texture (arterioles and venulas).
It is shown that connection of daily variations of all the others PHP with arterial blood pressure (ABP) is small and their research has independent value. The reaction of PHP to action of the weather factors can be revealed in comparable degree in changes of all parameters, and the most important external factor are variations of atmospheric temperature.
Two types of reaction to changes of O are observed. In the range of negative Ts, temperature fall leads to increase of the average level the ABP, to deceleration of a peripheral blood-flow, decrease in the level of activity of parasympathetic nervous system. Increase of level the ABP at increase of Os is observed or in the summer, at T >15-18 oC, or in the winter in conditions of a cyclone and it is connected, apparently, with the lowered maintenance of oxygen in air.
Reaction to variations of geomagnetic activity level (GMA) has complicated nonlinear character and depend both on average levels of GMA, and on an initial condition of the volunteer organism. At the same time at increase of the GMA level an increase in saturation of peripheral texture by blood and numbers of infringements of conductivity of a myocardium are observed.

The population of relativistic electrons in the radiation belts is highly dynamic. Since relativistic electrons can be hazardous to both spacecraft and humans the prediction of the electron flux throughout the radiation belts is an active area of research. We present results from the BAS Global Radiation Belt Model that has been developed as part of the SPACECAST project to simulate the state of the radiation belts, driven only by the Kp index. The model includes radial diffusion, collisions with the atmosphere and wave-particle interactions with both Chorus waves and Plasmaspheric Hiss. Kp dependent boundary conditions have been developed using data from the CRRES mission. The model can be used both for forecasting and to recreate the state of the radiation belts in the past. Results show the relative importance of the different processes as well as the need to correctly model the boundary conditions.

ESIO (EUV Solar Imager for Operations) is a solar monitoring instrument being developed for deployment within the ESA SSA framework. It consists of a combination of an EUV imager and a 3-channel EUV/NUV radiometer. Its concept derives from the SWAP imager and the LYRA radiometer currently in operation onboard the PROBA2 mission. As an innovative monitoring system, an ESIO prototype will be developed with further miniaturization and additional processing autonomy. The idea is to deploy subsequent ESIO incarnations on dedicated or piggy-back flight opportunities as to guarantee an infrastructure providing a consistent, non-interrupted, operational data service. In this talk we present the ESIO preliminary concept including the customer requirements, the lessons learned from SWAP and LYRA, the instrument design options and challenges, to finally the use of the provided data service as input for space weather models and forecasts.

The physical processes involved in the origin and development of gradual Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are so complex that no current scientific model accounts for all the responsible factors. This makes it difficult to satisfy the need of the space weather users community for describing and quantifying the particle radiation and the maximum intensity periods attained during SEP events. The modelling limitations put constraints on the estimation of the fluence and the peak intensity values that interplanetary missions (like Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus) may encounter for different particle energies.

In the frame of the Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project, we have developed a physics-based model that (in spite of its limitations) enables the achievement of two main goals: (1) to continuously track the contribution of the main interplanetary CME-driven shock to the particle population accelerated and injected during a gradual SEP event, in a space region from ~ 4 solar radii to 1.6 AU and (2) to develop a tool to obtain fluence and peak intensity predictions out of 1 AU.

This model combines 2D MHD simulations of interplanetary shocks, from 4 solar radii, with a particle transport model. To show the performance of this model we present the simulation of two large SEP events during different phases of the Solar Cycle 23: April 4, 2000 and December 13, 2006 events. Via a semi-empirical relation, defined between the plasma radial velocity jump and the injection rate of shock-accelerated particles at the point of the shock front where a given observer is magnetically connected to (the cobpoint), we are able to obtain 5-200 MeV proton intensity time profiles as seen by a virtual armada of 98 spacecraft in the ecliptic plane under different solar wind, shock and particle transport conditions. This set of synthetic SEP events forms the SEPEM SOLPENCO2 tool. With the calibration of these synthetic proton intensities with 1 AU data, this tool currently allows us to obtain the radial variations of peak intensity and fluence in SEP events, as measured by several observers placed along the same interplanetary magnetic field line (between 0.2 AU and 1.6 AU). This information is then used as input for the SEPEM statistical SEP events model.

We present here the method followed to transitioning from a scientific model to an application, and we discuss the radial dependences found for a set of SEP events simulated with the SOLPENCO2 tool. The improvement of the physics-based model is the next step for ameliorating this kind of space weather predictions. Researchers involved in the FP7 SPACECAST project are starting to undertake this task.

The SREM is a cost-effective instrument mounted onboard multiple ESA missions. The SREM objective is the in-situ measurement of high-energy solar particles at the spacecraft location. Within the previous solar cycle 23, SREM units onboard ESA's INTEGRAL and Rosetta missions detected several tens of SEPEs and accurately pinpointed their onset, rise, and decay times. We have undertaken a detailed study to determine the solar sources and subsequent interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that gave rise to these events, as well as the timing of SEPEs with the onset of possible geomagnetic activity triggered by these ICMEs. We find that virtually all SREM SEPEs may be associated with CME-driven shocks. For a number of well-studied INTEGRAL/SREM SEPEs, moreover, we see an association between the SEPE peak and the shock passage at L1. Shortly (typically within a few hours) after the SEPE peak, the ICME-driven modulation of the magnetosphere kicks in, with either an increase or a dip of the Dst index, indicating stormy conditions in geospace. We conclude that, pending additional investigation, SREM units may prove useful for a short-term prediction of inclement space-weather conditions in Geospace, especially if mounted onboard dayside missions ahead of the magnetospheric bow shock.

Solar activity can trigger sporadic bursts of energetic particles in the solar wind and increase the number of high energy (MeV) particles trapped inside the Earth's radiation belts. These high energy particles cause damage to satellites and are a hazard for manned spaceflight and aviation. They are difficult to predict due to uncertainties over the basic physical processes, and the need to access reliable data in real time. Here we will discuss some of the challenges of modelling solar proton events, and the difficulties of modelling changes in the Earth's radiation belts being addressed by the SPACECAST project. We will present an overview of initial results on particle acceleration in the foreshock region and transport in the interplanetary medium, and explain how this will contribute to models for solar energetic particles. We will also present an overview of global dynamic radiation belts models, how they work, the different physical processes governing low and high energy electrons, and new efforts to combine wave data from different satellites which affect electron loss and acceleration. We will describe our recent progress to set up boundary conditions using satellite particle data and magnetic indices, and show a comparison between model and satellite data for a large geomagnetic storm. Finally, we will illustrate the system of accessing satellite and ground data to produce a near real time forecast.

Large amount of high-resolution measurements are nowadays available from different heliospheric locations. It has become an issue how to best handle the ever-increasing amount of information about the near-Earth space weather conditions, and how to enable the social data analysis. To resolve the problem, we have developed an interactive web interface, called Substorm Zoo, which we expect to become a powerful tool for scientists and a useful tool for public. The aim is to (1) provide a combined data repository for different heliospheric measurements including the geomagnetic activity indices with a possibility to customized views, (2) enable the use of pre-identified event lists, creation and sharing of own lists, (3) allows discussion on individual activity events e.g. substorms from the users of the site, and (4) enable the interactive data analysis on-line with a possibility to write and share comments. In this paper, we will present the basic features of Substorm Zoo and give examples of the use for educational, scientific and public outreach purposes.

The determination of radiation exposure of aircrew at aviation altitudes, generated by interactions of primary high-energetic particles of cosmic origin with atoms in upper layers of the Earth's atmosphere, has been part of the radiation protection standards in the EU for more than ten years. The corresponding radiation field is very complex in both particle composition and energy distribution. In order to verify and improve computer programs for the operational dose assessment of aircrew, many different types of detectors are used to measure this cosmic radiation field at aviation altitudes. Among these devices the Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter (TEPC) is generally regarded as a reference measuring instrument since it allows to determine the ambient dose equivalent H*(10) as operational quantity. An installation for permanent operation aboard aircraft, however, requires a more ruggedized and low-maintenance dosimeter, e.g. a semiconductor detector. A corresponding instrument of the Liulin type measures the energy deposition by charged particles in silicon, which has to be converted into H*(10). Here a calibration function, dependent on the geographic position to account for the variation of the complex radiation field in the atmosphere, is presented which was derived from TEPC reference measurements during the past solar minimum.

In the context of the initiation of coronal mass ejections and the problem of mass loss related to the physics of coronal neutral sheets and streamers, occurring above lines of solar disc magnetic polarity reversal, we focus our analysis on a single event which occurred at the west limb, on May 30, 2003.
We examine the dynamical behaviour of the filament region where reconnection and dissipation of magnetic energy in the turbulent plasma are occurring. The link between the observed oscillatory motions and the eruption occurrence is investigated in detail, using CDS/SOHO measurements, EIT/SOHO images, Halpha filtergrams with emphasize on synoptic data describing homologous flares.

>From a constant stream of particles in the form of solar wind to the almost unpredictable events of solar flares and coronal mass ejections, the Earth's environment is influenced by the Sun. With respect to the Sun-weather relationship, the Earthís atmosphere may be affected in a much more complicated manner than was imagined before. Evaluating the Sun's impact on climate requires knowledge of variations not only in Total Solar Irradiance but also variations in the Spectral Solar Irradiance.

LYRA, the Large Yield Radiometer, is a UV-VUV solar radiometer embarked on the ESA PROBA2 mission launched in November 2009. The instrument acquires solar irradiance in four broad spectral channels, from soft X-ray to UV, that have been chosen for their relevance in solar physics, space weather and aeronomy.

The analysis of LYRA time series of flares showed that the flare rise phase is dominated by soft X-ray as observed by GOES, whereas the flare decline phase takes considerably longer and seems to be dominated by cooler EUV emission. LYRA's detectors observe a mixed signal from both these spectral ranges.

Using data recorded by the spectrometer EVE on SDO, we will try to understand the quantitative relationship of these spectral intervals. This will bring new insights in flare dynamics, as well as their influence on various layers of the Earth's atmosphere.

In addition, we will present the LYRA Flare List, which is an online data product and a first step in an attempt to form an independent flare catalogue.

PROBA2 is a small ESA satellite in sun-synchronous orbit, testing new technology in orbit, which contains two innovative scientific instruments devoted to solar physics and space weather. SWAP is an EUV imager observing the EUV corona at 1-2 mins cadence in one bandpass around 17.4nm. LYRA is a (X)UV radiometer continuously measuring the solar irradiance in 4 channels ranging from Ly-alpha to short wavelength EUV channels.
SWAP and LYRA were built as miniaturized instruments with onboard resources that are orders of magnitude smaller than those available to the very powerful solar instruments onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Still, both instruments can offer unique datasets which are complementary to the other solar data available and can shed a light on important open questions in solar physics. The fact that both quicklook and scientific data are available in near-realtime make them in particular interesting for space weather applications.
We present several of the unique datasets SWAP and LYRA can offer, and the first scientific results based on those. SWAP's unique data result from its wide FOV with offpoint ability, and limited blooming and diffraction effects at flare sites. LYRA's main opportunity is its extremely high cadence (10ms) which revealed oscillation periods upto 8s in EUV channels.

Many people are questioning about the way to model the solar activity. We know that the solar flares are playing an important role for solar activity but we do not know how they can appear upon the solar photosphere.

It would be possible to see this phenomenon as a matter of solar tide. As the moon affects our oceans,the earth's atmosphere and also the earth's crust, the planets of the solar system have an impact on the Sun through their gravitational force as it have been evoked by several authors.

But these forces are adding or subtracting each other. Not only the impact of a planet depends on where it is localized on its orbit but also where the others planets are localized on theirs. But considering the eight planets will conduct to a difficult model. For the start, it is more interesting to only consider the biggest planets. Then to improve the model, the other planets can be taken additional.

By this method, prevision of solar cycle and biological linked events like occurrence of epidemics and pandemics can be envisaged

references

J.J. Condon, R.R. Schmidt - planetary tides and sunspot cycles Dept. of Physics,Virginia Polytech Inst & State University, Blacksburg, Va 24061, USA

E.K. Bigg, P.S. Mulhall -Planetary modulation of Solar Activity, Division of Radio Physics, Proceedings of the Astronomical Society of Australia, Vol. 1, p.53

C. Gaudeau de Gerlicz,P. Bobola, M. Antoine - Modulation of the Solar Activity with Volterra's Kernels Method, Bioespas, SBB, Tours France Proceeding of European Space Weather, Bruxelles 2008

Chen X.-z.- Modulation of Solar Activity by Planetary Perturbation, Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics, Volume 20, Number 3, July 1996 , pp. 382-382(1)

Solar EUV observations show that the corona overlying active regions is not uniform and a single density profile is not adequate to explain all types of radio bursts, possibly associated with different types of coronal structures.
In this study we use Nançay Radioheliograph imaging observations and dynamic radio spectra to analyze density profiles along the propagation path of two different types of radio bursts. We studied type II radio bursts (generated at the shock front propagating across different coronal structures) and type III radio bursts (generated by electrons propagating along open field lines) associated with the same event, and therefore mapping the density profiles above the same active region. Together with significantly different density profiles for type II and type III bursts, we also found that the proper estimation of the propagation direction, in particular for type III bursts, is as important as the application of a correct density profile.
The propagation of a shock wave strongly depends also on the profile of the Alfvén speed. Previous studies indicated the existence of a local minimum and maximum of the Alfvén speed profile in the height range of about 1.5 - 4 solar radii. However, position of the local extrema of the Alfvén speed profile strongly vary depending on the study.
We analyze the Alfvén speed profile in the low corona using the type II band split (associated with the density jump at the shock front) and the average density profile for type II radio bursts obtained earlier. The accuracy of the position of the local extrema of the Alfvén speed, obtained in the similar study by Vrsnak et al (2002,2004) is estimated.

Solar flares are among the most important phenomena in space weather; continuous monitoring of the associated solar flux is used both to detect them and to retrieve some of their general properties (amplitude, duration, time profile) and to classify them, as it is done from the GOES spacecraft observations for several decades. These "initial" flare properties are consequently dependent on the instrument and pass bands that are used. The LYRA radiometer onboard PROBA2 has two channels that have revealed to be extremely good flare detectors. We will present comparison of flare properties as observed by GOES and LYRA and discuss their respective relevance and complementarity.

We present the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM), developed by Ganushkina et al. [2001, 2005, 2006], which is a tool to model and forecast the behavior of ring current and radiation belts particles in the inner Earth's magnetosphere. The model follows ions and electrons with arbitrary pitch angles from the plasma sheet to the inner L-shell regions with energies reaching up to hundreds of keVs in time-dependent magnetic and electric fields. A distribution of particles is traced in the drift approximation under the conservation of the first and second adiabatic invariants. Liouville's theorem is used to gain information of the entire distribution function. The drift velocities are considered such that relativistic effects for electrons are taken into account. The model boundary is set in the plasma sheet at distances depending on the scientific questions we are trying to answer by modeling specific events, from 6.6 RE to 10 RE. There are no limitations of the location of the outer boundary. The particle distribution at the boundary is defined as a Maxwellian or kappa distribution function with parameters obtained from the empirical relations or from the observations during specific events. Particle loss processes, which are important for modeling the ring current ions, include charge-exchange with neutral hydrogen in the upper atmosphere, Coulomb collisions, and convective outflow through the magnetopause. For modeling of electrons, the processes of radial and pitch-angle diffusion have to be taken into account. Wave-particle interactions play a central role in the variations of the electron fluxes, they are incorporated into the IMPTAM model via pitch angle diffusion coefficients. Coulomb collisions and loss to the atmosphere are also taken into account. We demonstrate the ability to model the development of the ring current during storms and to produce seed electron population to be further accelerated to radiation belts energies.

The most commonly used index to quantify the disturbance during a geomagnetic storm is Dst. However, other geomagnetic indices are commonly used as a proxy of the disturbance at different regions of terrestrial environment. Different approaches to model Dst index as a function of time can be found in literature, but none of them is used to model also other indices. Recently Aguado et al. (2010) proposed a hyperbolic model for the decay of the Dst index after an intense storm. In this study we present the results of fitting the hyperbolic model to other geomagnetic indices. We also discuss the results on the base of the physical mechanisms involved in the disturbance of the magnetospheric regions represented by those indices.

Cosmic rays (CR) is important element of space weather and instrument of space weather forecasting. From this point of view is necessary to take into account all factors influenced on CR intensity. One of this important factors is the influence of atmospheric electric fields (AEF) during thunderstorms on CR intensity caused by local acceleration (or deceleration, in dependence of direction of AEF and sign of charged particles) of secondary CR particles (mostly, muons and electrons for CR observations in the low atmosphere or underground). We analysed one minute data on AEF obtained by the sensor ESF-1000 in our Observatory on Mt. Hermon and one minute neutron monitor data corrected on barometric effect and on effect of snow. While AEF does not influence on neutrons, we found sufficient effect in the observed total neutron intensity and in intensities of different multiplicities. This caused by soft negative muons, captured by nuclears of lead (instead of atomís electrons) with formation of mesoatoms. While the cross section of muons relative to strong interactions is very small (the same order as for neutrino), because captured muon moves really about inside nuclear with very high density, the probability of muon interaction with nuclear is higher than decay of muon. As result of this interaction, the total energy of rest muon (about 100 MeV) go to the excitation of leads nuclear with emanation of few neutrons which are detected by neutron monitor. Therefore, neutron monitor is an ideal detector for separating positive and negative soft muons (without using a big magnetic system). We obtained results for positive and negative directions AEF and show existing sufficient AEF influence on CR intensity, the biggest for small multiplicities. We give theoretical explanation of obtained results. This work is made in the frame of COST 803 program and foundation "INFRASTRUCTURE" of Min. Science of Israel and will be submitted to the Journal Space Weather and Space Climate

The model based on NM one-minute data (for high energy region) and available through Internet satellite one minute data (e.g., of series GOES) in different energy ranges (from 4 MeV up to 500 MeV). In the first we developed a program, which automatically determined on the continuously analyzing of NM and satellite data the beginning of SEP. After the start of SEP, by using NM data and data in four biggest energy ranges we determine SEP energy spectrum in the high-energy region. After few (as minimum 4 minutes) we try to solve the inverse problem of SEP generation and propagation and estimate on the basis of determined changes of SEP energy spectrum in time the following main parameters: time of ejection into solar wind, energy spectrum of SEP generation, two-parametric diffusion coefficient in dependence of energy and distance from the Sun. With each new minute of observation obtained results of the inverse problem solution became more and more exactly. For each new minute of observation we then solve direct problem (by using estimated values of time of ejection into solar wind, energy spectrum of SEP generation, two-parametric diffusion coefficient) and determine expected SEP fluxes in different energy ranges not only during observed time (for checking solution of inverse problem), but also expected SEP fluxes in near future for forecasting of expected total radiation hazard in space, in magnetosphere, and in atmosphere for spacecrafts, satellites, and airplanes.
This work is made in the frame of COST 803 program and will be submitted to the Journal Space Weather and Space Climate.

Solar activity and its consequences for the interplanetary space are governing and perturbing the Earth's magnetosphere. The response of the terrestrial magnetosphere displayed as geomagnetic disturbances is measured by several geomagnetic indices. This paper analyses the geomagnetic variability during the last prolonged solar minimum phase under the influence of the high speed streams in the solar wind. Defining a minimum phase as the period with the monthly relative sunspot numbers (smoothed values) having a value of less than 20, we considered for this analysis the interval February 2006-September 2010. The High-Speed Streams (HSSs) in the solar wind were determined by their main parameters: initial and maximum velocities, duration, velocity gradient. Their importance parameter was also calculated for each stream. The main features of the fast streams and the geomagnetic disturbances induced by them (using Ap and Dst geomagnetic indices) were marked out. A comparative analysis of the HSS dynamics during the last solar minimum with the previous solar minimum (1996-1997) concludes the paper.

All CR stations on mountains and about sea level at middle and high latitudes in winter periods are covered by snow with the depth (in g/cm2) varied in time. To use this data for space weather forecasting necessary to determine snow effect for each moment of time and correct observation data not only on barometric and temperature effects (as usually), but also on snow effect. According to observations on Mt. Hermon, the snow effect in NM total intensity and different multiplicities is comparable with 11-year variation. The other problem is, that with increasing of snow depth, the sensitivity of CR detector changed - moved to higher energies. To determine the snow effect in NM on Mt. Hermon we made step by step the following investigations: 1) determine connection of CR intensity observed on Mt. Hermon during periods without snow with CR intensity on stations which never covered by snow; 2) by the found regression coefficients we determine expected CR variations on Mt. Hermon in winter time on the basis by data of stations on which in winter time are not covered by snow; 3) the difference between observed CR intensity and calculated in point 2 will give snow effect. This method can be used for any CR station, covered at some periods by snow. This work is prepared in the frame of COST 803 program and supported by foundation "INFRASTRUCTURE" of Min. Science of ISrael, and will be submitted to the Journal Space Weather and Space Climate.

Cosmic ray (CR) Forbush effects and precursors are important for space weather forecasting of phenomenon, dangerous for satellites electronics and other technologies even on the ground. We select Forbush effects observed on Mt Hermon and then by data from other stations construct by the method of ring stations for each event diagrams shows precursors effects. These precursor effects can be used for forecasting big magnetic storms. We made also statistical analysis of obtained ring stations diagrams and discuss the possibility of using described method in real time scale.
This work is prepared in the frame of COST 803 program and supported by foundation "INFRASTRUCTURE" of ISrael Min. Science , and will be submitted to the Journal Space Weather and Space Climate.

A microsatellite program is proposed to CNES to monitor far UV and UV to evidence solar variability of magnetic origin influence on Space Weather. HI Lyman α is indeed measured since 1997, in particular by UARS and EOS/SOLSTICE and, since a few months, by the LYRA experiment on the Proba-2 micro-satellite of ESA. However, as these experiments measuring irradiance see the Sun like a star, they do not have information on the physical causes of the changes of irradiance observed. To identify the causes of these changes and measure their parameters according to solar magnetism, an imaging instrument of the whole disc, with a fair spatial resolution and a good rate of observation, is necessary. The nature of the variations of Lyman α irradiance is also significant to interpret the variations of ozone and the formation of the layer-D of the ionosphere. Moreover, the photometric images in Lyman α (including their running subtraction) will show phenomena of coronal significance, such that fast waves (Moreton waves, etc. ) which is propagating close to surface and produces a signature on the structures of the chromosphere. Lyman-Alpha ultraviolet telescope and coronagraph experiment and complementary instrumentation will be presented.