Eighth European Space Weather Week
November 28 - December 02, 2011 - Namur, Belgium


Splinter - Forecaster Forum
L. Trichtchenko (NRCan)
Monday, Nov 28, 09:00-12:30

The informal, open, non-competitive, friendly and supportive discussions of the forecaster and scientific community would be the spirit of this Forum.
Discussions are envisaged to focus on 5 main topics:
  1. Forecasts during low solar activity and during increasing solar activity. Our positive experiences and problems. We have got several small events of the ongoing solar cycle where we tried our forecasts. I guess it would be interesting to discuss them. There might be different types of the forecasts, solar, ionosphere, magnetosphere, ground effects. The evaluation of the forecasts should be done as well, in order to figure out where we have gaps and how to fill them. For example, to develop/update new indices (solar indices as well), develop forecast of the extreme events etc.
  2. Use of new scientific data (SDO, STEREO, PROBA) in the operational forecasting now and in the future. I think we have some interesting new data sets and ways to use them for the forecasts, even if these datasets are not operational yet. But we can recommend them for operational use in some conditions, or not recommend without contacting PIs. Need for specific data in the future (for CME, SEP).
  3. Use of new models in the forecasts. The models might be just a simple derivation of the CME speed from some dataset of more sophisticated MHD model, or models for evaluations of the forecasts etc. but experience in using it in the real forecast and evaluation of their usefulness is important for their developments/terminations. We have already two presentations here.
  4. Our needs. This is more like a discussion time where all can propose what can be done in the near-future and far-future to make forecasts more reliable (practical solutions). As well, we need to see what types of the forecasts are needed as well and what types of the forecasts can be provided now.
  5. Proposed solutions for expressed problems. We will than rank them (importance and possibilities to have solutions in near time) and prepare some written statement which can be delivered to the SWWT Steering Board as a result of our Forum's discussion, if you think it is good idea or leave it for the next Forum.


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