10 - Open session on Space Weather Applications and Engineering Concerns

Alexi Glover and the ESWW11 Program Committee

This session targets the wide range of application development currently ongoing in Europe and abroad. This includes a broad range of application types including algorithms and applications designed to nowcast and forecast space weather conditions in space or on ground, analysis toolkits and supporting data(base) infrastructure developments.
The session is open to well established applications which are already operating as (prototype/precursor) services, newly developed applications and proof of concept demonstrations. Submissions covering tailored applications are particularly encouraged which include a discussion of how the author has worked with a potential/existing service user in order to address specific engineering concerns. In all cases, authors are strongly encouraged to address validation, describe the approach used to assess (anticipated) application performance and to outline their vision and/or experience of how users might take action in response to the output of their application.

Talks and First Class Posters
Wednesday November 19, 11:30-13:00, auditorium Reine Elisabeth

Poster Viewing
Wednesday November 19, 10:30-11:30, area in front of auditorium Reine Elisabeth.
Poster viewing of this session is simultaneous and in the same area with the viewing of the posters of session 9: Open session on recent advances in space weather science .

The numbering of the posters might differ from the numbering on the page with the short overview without abstracts.

Talks and First Class Posters

1 Oral 11:30 am RNLAF's JMG: Linking Experts to end Users
      van der Laan, W-P1; Beerten, H2
      1Royal Netherlands Airforce; 2RNLAF JMG
      Royal Netherlands Air Force's (RNLAF) Joint Meteorological Group (JMG) aims to link space weather knowledge and products of experts (SIDC/SWPC) to operational end-users in our defence organisation, e.g. special forces, signals officers, pilots and navy officers.  They ask for plain and simple forecasts on operational impact. We find these hard to give, as there aren't many solid "dose-response relationships" for space weather effects. Furthermore they are receptive though skeptical.  To achieve our goal we raise their awareness by providing heads-ups during flares and storms and performing pilots. Hereby we try to remove some skepticism and induce feedback which we need to improve our operational impact forecast.  During my talk I will sketch our road map by an anthology of our actions and the questions they raise.
2 Oral 11:45 am Flare Detection Method used by GIFDS
      Wenzel, D1; Jakowski, N1; Berdermann, J1; Vainio, R2; Palmroth, M3; Kempf, Y3; Ganse, U4; von Alfthan, S3; Afanasiev, A2; Hoilijoki, S3;
      1German Aerospace Center (DLR); 2University of Turku; 3Finnish Meteorological Insititute, Helsinki; 4University of Helsinki
      The Global Ionospheric Flare Detection System (GIFDS) of the DLR consists of a ground-based network of VLF receivers (Perseus SDR - Software Defined Radio), which provides signal strength and phase measurements at multiple frequency channels from 10 to 60 kHz. One of the main objectives of GIFDS is the immediate and continuous detection of solar flares as a result of their impact on the bottomside ionosphere and consequently their sudden effects on VLF signals. As such events can only be detected during daytime, DLR is installing a uniform set of receivers at selected locations around the world. Measurements carried out at the dayside sector will be provided 24/7 in the near future. VLF measurements not only contain information about the direct impact of solar flares but also depend on solar irradiation and geophysical conditions. Regarding the latter, the impact of diurnal variations on VLF signal strength can be minimized by means of a time series analysis and a subsequent detrending of the records. Thus, a robust polynomial curve fitting is applied in order to determine diurnal variations for flare separation. Subsequent measurements are regularly adjusted by compressing, stretching, rotating and shifting the basic approach to ensure a stabilized output. In conclusion, results are compared with X-ray measurements onboard GOES satellite to validate flare detection concerning size and shape.
3 Oral 12:00 am Automated Detection of Solar Wind Disturbances
      Vennerstrom, S1; Leer, K1
      DTU Space
      Automated detection and prediction is an important ingredient to achieve 24/7 space weather operations. We present and assess a new service  for automated detection and subsequent classification of solar wind disturbances arriving at L1. Focus is on disturbances with a potential for creating geomagnetic storms.   The service requires solar wind in situ plasma and magnetic field observations, currently provided in near real-time by NOAA/NASA from the ACE SWEPAM and MAG instruments. Periods of significantly enhanced magnetic field are identified and classified according to their most likely cause, being either propagating interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) or high speed streams creating stream interaction regions (SIRs). In the output the disturbed intervals are thus classified either as “ICME” related, “SIR” related or “NO ID”. The latter occurs when the classification criteria are either not fulfilled or only partly fulfilled and/or both some ICME and SIR criteria applies.  We compare the results with existing lists of ICMEs and SIRs derived manually, and assess the usefulness of the service for providing early warnings of upcoming geomagnetic storms.
4 Oral 12:15 pm SWTK  – The Space Weather Analysis and Visualisation Toolkit
      Lawrence, Gareth1; Di Giorgio, N1; Watermann, J1; Zidoune, K1; Reid, S1; Glover, A2
      1RHEA System; 2European Space Operations Centre 
      A new ESA activity is underway to establish a Data Browsing and Quick Look Service. The primary objective of this task is to develop an easy-to-use interface and preliminary set of visualisation tools - the SWTK - supporting a forecaster in rapid analysis of latest space weather data. It will also support general public interest and understanding in space weather events. The SWTK will support the co-analysis of both numerical time-series data and contextual products – for example, images, model results, alerts, reports and forecasts, and user-generated content  – by using two distinct software libraries.   The numerical data will be imported from the SSA-SWE Data Centre into a Charting library to provide the User with state-of-the-art display, analysis and manipulation tools for real-time and historical data. The products will be imported into a Timelining tool that will allow the User to place the measurements alongside a range of supporting contextual items to assess the full development of the event and forecast the likely impacts.   The development of SWTK is supported by the European Space Agency (ESA Contract: No. 44000105734/12/D/MRP).
5 Oral 12:30 pm The ESPAS e-infrastructure: Access to data from the near-Earth space
      Belehaki, A1; Hapgood, M2; Consortium, ESPAS3
      1NOA; 2Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, STFC; 3ESPASConsortium 
      The aim of ESPAS Research Infrastructure is to facilitate the access to data from the near-Earth space environment (http://www.espas-fp7.eu). ESPAS envisages creating a one-stop shop for researchers and users of research results who wish to exploit multi-instrument multi-point science data for analysis, model building, data assimilation into models, model-observation comparison, space environment nowcast and forecast, to name just a few.  The ESPAS project has entered its third year of activities, with a set of tools to support standards and interoperability, deployed in the main platform and the data nodes. Main elements are the data model, which is compatible with all heterogeneous data formats, the XML schemas for metadata exchange format, the domain-specific ontology, the wrapper installed at the data nodes to support metadata harvesting from the main platform, the main platform built on the D-NET framework and the GUI with its designed workflows. The current release provides access to the majority of datasets registered in ESPAS from ground based Digisondes and ionosondes, magnetometers, GNSS receivers, Fabry Perot Interferometers, SUPERDARN, ISRs, and from space missions CHAMP, IMAGE/RPI, ACE, SOHO, PROBA2, NOAA/POES, DEMETER, Cluster, ISIS/Alouette, MAGION3, among others. In order to enhance its functionalities, ESPAS will provide datasets derived from a number of models such us IRI-2012, EDAM, CMAT2.  This presentation aims at providing an overview of the system functionality and to present some indicative science cases that ESPAS can support to enhance space weather applications.
6 Oral 12:45 am The NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) Next Generation Space Weather Data Warehouse
      Maddox, M1; Kuznetsova, M2; Pulkkinen, A2; Zheng, Y2; Rastaetter, L2; Chulaki, A2; Swindell, M2; Pembroke, A2; Wiegand, C2; Mullinix, R2; Boblitt, J2; Mendoza, A-M2
      1NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; 2NASA GSFC Community Coordinated Modeling Center 
      The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables, supports, and performs research and development for next generation space science and space weather models.  The CCMC currently hosts a large and expanding collection of state-or-the-art, physics-based space weather models that have been developed by the international research community.  There are many tools and services provided by the CCMC that are currently available world-wide, along with the ongoing development of new innovative systems and software for research, discovery, validation, visualization, and forecasting.  Over the history of the CCMC's existence, there has been one constant engineering challenge - describing, managing, and disseminating data.  To address the challenges that accompany an ever-expanding number of models to support, along with a growing catalog of simulation output - the CCMC is currently developing a flexible and extensible space weather data warehouse to support both internal and external systems and applications.    This paper intends to chronicle the evolution and future of the CCMC's data infrastructure, and the current infrastructure re-engineering activities that seek to leverage existing community data model standards like SPASE and the IMPEx Simulation Data Model.

Posters

1 Highlighted poster   Failure Propagation Simulations in Critical Infrastructures Applied to a Space Weather Event
      Lupo, R1; Berrilli, F2; Setola, R3; Albanese, C1; Romani, C4; Oliva, G4; Del Moro, D5; Agostini, F1
      1Telespazio; 2University of Tor Vergata - Solar Physics department; 3NITEL/Università Campus Biomedico; 4Università Campus Biomedico; 5University of Tor Vergata - Solar Physics department
      The EU co-funded project SPARC  analysed the relation existing among Space Threats (Space Weather, Space Debris and Near Earth Objects) and the capabilities of the Critical Infrastructures to continuously supply their services, considering risks, exposures and countermeasures. Critical Infrastructures (CI), which include Energy Grid, Telecommunication network, Transport Systems, etc. are today the backbone of modern societies. Originally designed separately, they now work through a high-level of interdependency among each other, composing a very complex system of systems, extended from the ground to the near space. Therefore, a single failure, due to a generic threat, could potentially trigger a “domino effect” with unpredictable and severe impacts. In this framework, also due to the pervasive use of ICT and GNSS services, Space Weather can represent  a serious threat able to impact on CI operational capabilities in a wide and diffuse way and at different levels, producing negative consequences which also involve stakeholders unaware of their vulnerability. It is fundamental to foresee the behaviour of the whole system of systems in particular scenarios, considering both the direct effects that space weather may have on CI but also the indirect consequences induced by the presence of interdependencies. Indeed, only in this way we can have a clear vision of the potential consequences in order to define mitigation strategies. To this end, in the SPARC project the impact of Space Weather on CI has been investigated through CISIA simulation framework. Specifically a complex scenario composed by urban areas and related electric, transportation and communication networks has been considered going to analyse the impact of a severe solar storm in terms of direct consequences but also considering the indirect effects induced by degraded GNSS services. CISIA Simulation is surely a kind of countermeasures. On the other hand, SPARC results highlighted that countermeasures need to include early warning services, based on improved nowcasting and forecasting capabilities. Telespazio, in cooperation with the scientific community, is working to develop an operative Space Weather Early Warning service.
2 Highlighted poster   Establishing the Geomagnetic Disturbance Benchmark Event for Evaluation of the Space Weather Hazard on Power Grids
      Pulkkinen, A
      NASA
      The awareness about potential major impact geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) can have on the North American high-voltage power transmission system has prompted Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to launch a geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) standards drafting process. The goals of the GMD standards are to quantify and mitigate the GMD hazard on the North American grid. North American Electric Reliability Corporation's (NERC) is coordinating the standards drafting process that is now entering Phase II involving quantification of the impact GIC can have on individual parts of the North American grid.  As a part of the Phase II GMD standards drafting process, substantial effort has been made for generating benchmark GMD scenarios. These scenarios that quantify extreme geoelectric field magnitudes and temporal waveforms of the field fluctuations are the foundation for subsequent engineering and impacts analyses. The engineering analyses will include the transmission system voltage stability and transformer heating assessments. The work on the GMD scenarios has been a major collaboration between a number of international entities involved in GMD research and transmission system operations. We will discuss in this paper the key elements of the benchmark GMD generation process and show the latest results from our work on the topic.
3 Highlighted poster   Ground Induced Cuurent (GIC) Hazard Analysis Mapping Toolkit
      Green, J1; Gannon, J1; Olsen, A1
      1Geosynergy, LLC
      Geomagnetic disturbances can cause potentially damaging geomagnetically induced currents to flow through the long conducting lines of the United States bulk power system. This goal of this project is to provide tools that allow transformer operators a better understanding of the geophysical hazard due to GICs. This is done through the combination of publicly-available data, information specific to a utility’s local area, and newly-developed models for electric field calculation. Public resources include data available through federal and academic magnetometers, and wide-area regional conductivity profiles of the physiographic regions of the US.  Proprietary and regional resources are added to increase the accuracy of a local specification for an individual customer, and may include: local magnetic field information from measurements or models, locally-targeted conductivity estimates and measurements, and measured neutral currents from specific transformer assets. These data are incorporated into wavelet-based electric field estimation models using frequency-separated interpolation to produce accurate estimates of the geophysical hazard at locations distant from direct measurements. We present a prototype geo-electric field hazard map product and show preliminary validation work for the newly-developed wavelet-based techniques.
4 Highlighted poster   The SWENET Online Archive: 10 Years of a European Space Weather Community Resource
      Laurens, H1; Glover, A2; Amata, E3; Clarke, E4; Beltrami, P5; Luntama, J-P1; Kruglanski, M5; Hilgers, A1
      1European Space Agency;  2European Space Agency/Rhea System; 3IAPS/INAF; 4British Geological Survey; 5etamax Space
      The SWENET archive was initially developed as part of the ESA Space Weather Applications Pilot Project, starting in 2003. The Pilot Project supported the development of a network of prototype space weather services, many of which are still active and have been developed further in the intervening time. SWENET was established as the common access portal and data repository for these services, providing a series of analysis tools and added functionalities to both service developers and users.  SWENET gives users access to a wealth of space weather data and products that cover ground, Ionospheric and spacecraft effects. The archive has stored information since 2003 and was redeployed in Redu in 2010 as part of the SSA preparatory phase, currently housing a large amount of data from 20 different providers. This year the SWENET interface has been upgraded having been replaced by the new data browsing and analysis functionality on the SWE web portal ‘DC-ll’. DC-ll has ingested the original SWENET data which can all be manipulated in an improved analysis environment.    As part of the initial SWENET development a set of preliminary metrics, or index quality statistics, were provided as an additional service via the SWENET web portal. The objective of this project is to review the database and revisit the existing metrics with a view to assessing the performance of a number of the original prototype services. Understanding the strengths and limitations of these forecasts ensures a reliable service to the end user.  As an initial case study, we have selected two services which forecast geomagnetic indices and/or data for analysis, namely the BINCASTS and GIFINT (Dst forecast).  We have assessed the corresponding data in the SWENET archive using a selection of metrics that are currently in use by the space weather and meteorology community. Appropriate metrics to each service have been used to compare the model performance to actual observations, helping to identify and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of each model.
5 p-poster   STEREO EUVI as X-Ray Proxy
      Krishnarao, Dhanesh1; Pulkkinen, Antti2
      1American University & NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; 2NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
      A solar flare is a sudden and intense brightening on the photosphere as a result of a conversion of magnetic energy into heat and radiation. Currently, GOES X-Ray Flux is used to classify the intensity of these powerful space weather events; however, GOES data is limited to the Earth facing half of the Sun. We will investigate and develop the use of NASA’s Solar TErrestrial Relations Observatory’s (STEREO) Extreme UltraViolet Imager (EUVI) as a proxy for GOES X-Ray Flux to fully understand solar flares across the entire Sun. The low cadence and image resolution of the beacon data, along with the lack of large flares during the early operational stages of STEREO limit our ability in finding a strong correlation between the two instruments. We also use the higher resolution and shorter cadence Science Data from STEREO to understand the necessary requirements for an operational, realtime proxy to be possible.
6 p-poster   Polar Cap (PC) index now IAGA-endorsed
      Stauning, P
      Danish Meteorological Institute 
      A new polar Cap (PC) index version has now been endorsed by the International Association for Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) at the General Assembly held in 2013. The PC indices, scaled to equal the merging electric field in the solar wind, represent the conditions that dominate the solar wind interaction with the magnetosphere. The PC indices, PCN based on Thule magnetic data and PCS based on Vostok data, are the firsts among the ground-based indices to respond to changes in the solar wind forcing of the magnetosphere.  Most other ground-based indices, e.g., the auroral electrojet index AE (or AL), the Kp index, and the ASY-H index could be derived directly from the PC index with time delays of around 5-15 min. The ring current index, Dst, can be derived by integration of the PC index. Further indices or parameters like the Auroral Power index, the Electrojet Joule heating, and the Cross Polar Cap Potential could be associated statistically with the PC indices. Thus, the PC indices are extremely useful in Space Weather forecast and analyses.  Unfortunately, there are still some unresolved issues around the new PC index version. It uses in its derivation procedure an “effective” Quiet Day level (QDC) composed of a basic QDC and an added solar wind sector contribution related to IMF By. The IMF By-related contributions are derived from daily median values of the magnetic variations and may in some cases improve the PC index by a few tenths of a unit (mV/m) at midday while introducing unfounded contributions of up to 2 units (possibly even more) during the night and morning hours (substorms onset at PC~1.5 unit). Furthermore, during cases of strong northward interplanetary magnetic fields (IMF Bz>>0) the transpolar ionospheric convection and the associated magnetic variations are often opposite (reverse) of the usual forward convection and could be quite strong. The proportionality between the magnetic variations and the geo-effective (or “merging”) solar wind electric field, which is assumed in the definition of the polar cap index, breaks down. It is argued here with illustrative examples, that the reverse convection cases should be excluded in the calculation of the regression coefficients used to derive PC index values from geomagnetic variation data.
7 p-poster   Large GIC Event on June 29, 2013 storm
      Sakharov, Y1; Katkalov,, J1; Shkarbaluk, M1; Selivanov, V2; Viljanen, A3; Pulkkinen, A4; Chigomezyo , N5
      1Polar Geophysical Institute; 2Centre for Physical and Technological Problems of Energy in Northern Areas; 3Finnish Meteorological Institute; 4NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; 5Catholic University of America
      High values of geomagnetically induced currents were recoded in the transformer neutral on the main power line at the North-West of Russia in the morning sector of the auroral zone during   geomagnetic storm on June 29th, 2013. Geomagnetic field variations and excitation of GIC are compared with  the auroral electrons precipitations.  The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no260330.
8 e-poster   Earth’s Magnetosphere Model in the Framework of the IMPEx Data Model: Web-Services and Visualization Tools
      Kalegaev, V1; Alexeev, I1; Belenkaya, E2; Mukhametdinova, L1; Maxim, K3; Genot, V4; Kallio, E5; Al-Ubaidi, T3; Modolo, R4
      1SINP MSU; 2Lomonosov Moscow State University Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics (MSU SINP),  1 bld 2 Leninskie gory, Moscow 119991, Russia; 3Space Research Institute, Austrian  Academy of Science, Graz, Austria; 4IRAP, CNRS/Université Paul Sabatier, 31028  Toulouse, France; 5Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
      The main idea of the IMPEx FP7 project is to integrate the satellite measurements and simulation data, which are obtained from multiple sources (satellite measurements and simulation data bases, on-line calculating services, all kinds of data providers), within one digital framework, so that all sorts of tools and applications would have unified access to the data. Paraboloid model (PMM), which represents the electrodynamics processes in the Earth’s magnetosphere, is a part of this infrastructure. This model is intended to calculate the magnetic field generated by a variety of current systems located on the boundaries and within the boundaries of the Earth’s magnetosphere under a wide range of environmental conditions, quiet and disturbed, affected by Solar activity such as Solar Flares and related phenomena. A set of Web-services to provide the access to PMM calculations and to enable the modeling data post-processing under SOAP protocol have been created. 3D visualization tool allows represent the output of PMM-related web-services, such as magnetic field line calculation, magnetic field along the spacecraft trajectory, etc. Data for the input parameters of the web-services can be fetched from the local Oracle data base or inserted manually. Spacecraft trajectories are fetched via the AMDA’s IMPEx web-service. The communication between the in-browser visualization tool and the IMPEx web-services is based on the SOAP protocol and is defined by the web-service interface, which is described in the relevant .wsdl file. The graphics itself is written on the WebGL language. The real-time model of the Earth's magnetosphere is currently working at SINP MSU Space Weather Web-site.
9 p-poster   Next Generation SPENVIS
      Kruglanski, Michel1; Messios, Neophytos1; Calders, Stijn1; Hetey, Laszlo1; De Donder, Erwin1; Parilla-Endrino, Esther2; Grande, Ignacio2; Ho, Ngoc-Diep3; Beltrami, Pablo4; Keil, Ralf4; Heynderickx, Daniel5; Evans, Hugh6; Daly, Eamonn6; Rodgers, David6
      1BIRA-IASB; 2Deimos Space; 2Deimos Space; 3Space Application Services NV/SA; 4Etamax; 5DHConsultancy; 6ESA/ESTEC 
      ESA's Space Environment Information System (SPENVIS) is an on-line resource for evaluating the space environment and its effects on spacecraft components and space travellers.  The system, developed by the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB) in 1996, has been operational for more than fifteen years and has a mature international  user community of about 10000 registered users around the globe. SPENVIS is used for various purposes like mission analysis and planning, education, and running models for scientific applications.  Within the ESA/GSTP-5 programme, a next generation of this resource is in development. The framework and models of the SPENVIS system are reviewed, restructured and reengineered using current web design techniques and programming methodologies, providing a new, extensible and open framework for the integration of current and future space environment models.  In this poster we present the current status of the new system and discuss it main features.
10 p-poster   Testing and Improvement of the CME Geomagnetic Forecast Tool
      Dumbovic, M1; Devos, A2; Rodriguez, L2; Vrsnak, B1; Kraaikamp, E2; Bourgoignie, B2
      1Hvar Observatory; 2Royal Observatory of Belgium; 2Royal Observatory of Belgium
      The CME Geomagnetic Forecast Tool (CGFT) is one of the forecast tools implemented in the COMESEP alert system, an automated space weather alert system developed within the FP7 project COMESEP running since January 2014 at http://comesep.eu/alert/. The CGFT provides an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geoeffectiveness, based on CME parameters, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic-storm duration. More specifically, CME geoeffectiveness is estimated based on the CME width and speed, source position and X-ray class of the associated flare and expressed using Disturbance storm time (Dst) index. The CGFT was “fine-tuned” to the automated detection tools used in the COMESEP alert system, namely CACTus (CME detection), Solardemon, and Flaremail (flare detection). Furthermore, additional analysis of the statistical properties of CME geoeffectiveness was performed in order to improve threshold values for the different Dst storm levels. We compare these changes to the estimations provided by already issued alerts and evaluate CME geoeffectiveness forecast on an independent sample. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252), “Dynamics of the Solar System” association’s research grant (at Royal Observatory of Belgium), and Croatian science foundation.
11 p-poster   Title : Prototype for the new Solar Virtual Observatory
      Vansintjan, R1; Mampaey, B1; Delouille, V1
      1Royal Observatory of Belgium
      Abstract: As part of the FP7 SOLARNET project a new Solar Virtual Observatory (SVO) is being developed at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. The goal of the SVO is to make data from European ground based telescopes such as GREGOR, SST, THEMIS, VTT, DST as well as data from space missions such as  SDO and PROBA2 easily available to the scientific community. Our aim is to make the SVO user friendly while also providing advanced options for more in depth searches. In order to accomplish this, we are working on refining FITS standards for Solar data and meta-data. Our e-poster will showcase the SVO web interface through various search examples.
12 e-poster   Mapping the Aurora Using Social Media: New Scientific Data for Nowcasting and Forecasting Space Weather?
      Reay, S1; Diaz Doce, D1; Flower, S1; Clarke, E1; Bee, E1; Bell, P1
      1British Geological Survey
      "How far south will the aurora borealis be seen?" is a common question asked when a geomagnetic storm forecast is issued. It is not a straightforward answer; and current projections based, for example, on Kp do not always match sighting reports received after a display. Citizen science - engaging the general public to aid scientific research - may be one way of tackling this issue.  By using social media, such as Twitter, a new source of data can be mined for scientific analysis.   We present a new interactive web application to gather relevant tweets about the aurora and display these on a map. This tool has been created in JavaScript using the Twitter API and a customised application template from ESRI. We use both active and passive means to gather data. We actively encourage users to tweet using a known hashtag (#BGSaurora) with their location in a prescribed format. This will geo-locate the tweet and place a marker on the map reporting the sighting. We can also passively search tweets for more general hashtags such as #aurora or #northernlights. If these are geo-tagged they again can be mapped. Other relevant data layers, such as cloud cover and geomagnetic activity levels, can also be displayed.  We present the aurora sightings map and discuss the benefits of it both as an application to engage the general public, helping them to see when and where aurora are visible, and as a potential tool for gathering useful data for scientific analysis. If a better indicator of geomagnetic activity levels relevant for aurora viewing can be determined from these then this in turn will improve future predictions for aurora enthusiasts.
13 p-poster   Regional Auroral Forecast System in the ESA Space Situational Awareness Program
      Kauristie, K1; Partamies, N1; Viljanen, A1; Myllys, M2; Ahmadzai, S2; Peitso, P1; Vähämäki, A1; Arpikari, M1; Keil, R3; Martinez, U3; Luginin, A3; Navarro, V4; Glover, A4
      1Finnish Meteorological Institute; 2University of Helsinki; 3etamax space GmbH; 4ESA-ESOC
      The Regional Auroral Forecast (RAF) system which is currently under development in the ESA SSA programme will provide its users with nowcasts and forecasts of auroral activity and cloudiness in the Fennoscandian sector. RAF relies on the same empirical relationship between auroral sightings and magnetic field time derivative values which is used in the Auroras Now service (http://aurora.fmi.fi) developed in the ESA Space Weather Applications Pilot Project as part of the SWENET network of Service Development Activities. Experiences gathered in this service show that in 85% of the cases when alert has been given also auroras were observed. The new RAF system uses Near Real Time (NRT) magnetic field measurements from five stations under the auroral zone for creating auroral nowcasts on maps where also statistical auroral oval according to current Kp value is shown. In addition, during auroral season in night time the service shows auroral camera images from four stations. Cloudiness predictions are provided by the weather forecast service of the Finnish Meteorological Institute.   Forecasts on auroral activity in RAF are based on statistical relationships between data sets which describe solar and global activity and magnetic time derivative values recorded in the RAF magnetometer stations. In our approach the solar and global activity is characterized with NRT alerts by NOAA, Halo-CME alerts by SIDC and with FMI alerts for enhanced magnetic variability based on ACE data. Ten year data sets (2002-2012) were used for NOAA alerts, Halo-CME alerts and time derivative values, while for FMI/ACE alerts data from years 2010-2011 (18 months) were used to construct the statistical relationships.   The integration of the RAF system in SSA’s SWE Portal, following the principles of Service Oriented Architecture, has enabled to reuse existing software services. This approach has demonstrated the extensibility and adaptability of the architecture, leading to reduced risks and shorter implementation times.  In the presentation we will describe the details of RAF system and discuss the challenges in the attempts to make reliable auroral forecast with more than one hour lead times.
14 p-poster   An Integrated Nonlinear Analysis library – (INA) for Solar System Plasma Turbulence
      Munteanu, C1; Echim, M1; Kovacs, P2; Koppan, A2
      1Institute of Space Science; 2Geological and Geophysical Institute of Hungary
      We present an integrated software library dedicated to the analysis of time series recorded in space and adapted to investigate turbulence, intermittency and multifractals. The library is written in MATLAB and provides a graphical user interface (GUI) customized for the analysis of space physics data available online like: Coordinated Data Analysis Web (CDAWeb), Automated Multi Dataset Analysis system (AMDA), Planetary science archive (PSA), World Data Center Kyoto (WDC), Ulysses Final Archive (UFA) and Cluster Active Archive (CAA). Three main analysis modules are implemented in INA: Fourier, Wavelet and PDF analysis. The layered structure of the software allows the user to easily switch between different modules/methods while retaining the same time series for the analysis. The Fourier analysis module includes algorithms to compute and analyze the Power Spectral Density (PSD) and the Spectrogram. Wavelet analysis includes algorithms to compute the Scalogram, the Local Intermittency Measure (LIM) and the Flatness parameter. The PDF analysis module includes algorithms for computing the PDFs for a range of scales and parameters fully customizable by the user; it also computes the Flatness parameter and enables fast comparison with standard PDF profiles like, for instance, the Gaussian PDF. The integrated software library has been tested on several Cluster and Venus Express data and we will show relevant examples. Parts of the library were also used to systematically analyze solar wind and planetary data within the STORM FP7 project (Solar system plasma Turbulence: Observations, inteRmittency and Multifractals). Image catalogues of the results are available through the project website at http://www.storm-fp7.eu/.  Research supported by the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 313038/STORM, and a grant of the Romanian Ministry of National Education CNCS UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-ID-PCE-2012-4-0418.
15 e-poster   Innovative Space Weather Tools for CME analysis, Modeling, and Community Model Validation at CCMC/SWRC
      Kuznetsova, M1; Mullinix, R1; Wiegand, C1; Mays, L1; Maddox, M1; Chulaki, A1; Pulkkinen, A1
      1NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
      An important objective of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is to prototype, validate, and compare various space weather environment forecasting methods. As such, CCMC has developed three CME specific tools with the goal of facilitating advanced analysis and collaboration within the space weather community. The three tools we highlight in this paper are: Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT), WSA-ENLIL-Cone Fast Track, and Space Weather Scoreboard. These three tools allow making CME measurements, executing custom space weather model runs, and providing a systematic way for the scientific community to record and score predictions and forecasts both prior to, and after CME arrivals at 1 AU.  By using our Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT), scientists can quickly calculate CME kinematic properties. With a few mouse clicks, StereoCAT triangulates between satellite imagery (StereoA, StereoB, SOHO) to calculate CME direction, speed and opening angle.  In addition to single measurements, StereoCAT can create an ensemble of measurements.  The derived CME parameters can subsequently be used by the scientist in either their own models, or they can be entered into the WSA-Enlil-Cone Fast Track tool, which will execute a custom simulation based on the parameters produced by StereoCAT. WSA-Enlil-Cone Fast Track is a quick and easy way to have CCMC perform your WSA-Enlil-Cone model run.  Just enter a few parameters, and the model run is automatically executed within CCMC’s dedicated high performance computing infrastructure.  The end result is a set of arrival time predictions along with corresponding visualizations that illustrate the critical characteristics of the CME such as size and the projected impact path.  Forecasters can then  take the results from Fast Track and enter them into the Space Weather Scoreboard. The space weather scoreboard is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity for CME arrival time predictions which provides a central location for the community to: submit their forecast in real-time, quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time, and compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived.   All types of prediction models and methods are welcome from the world-wide research community for inclusion in the space weather scoreboard, and there are currently 17 registered CME arrival time prediction methods. Users submit their predictions for ongoing CME events and most importantly can provide detailed descriptions on how their prediction was made from the model, i.e.. method, input parameters.   Members of the research community can then view all of the predictions, modeling details, and the ensemble average of all predicted arrival times submitted by the community.    The space weather scoreboard enables world-wide community involvement in real-time predictions and ultimately will help researchers improve CME arrival time forecasting and understanding CME propagation.
16 p-poster   A new Space Weather Facility at the National Observatory of Athens to Support Solar and Ionospheric Observations and Forecasts
      Belehaki, A1; Tsiropoula, G1; Tsagouri, I1; Kontogiannis, I1
      1National Observatory of Athens
      A project is initiated at the IAASARS of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA). Its main objective is to develop techniques in order to provide forecasting tools in support of space environment services. The objective will be achieved through: a) the operation of a small full-disk solar telescope to conduct regular observations of the Sun in the Ha line; b) the construction of a database with near real-time solar observations which will be available to the community through a server (HELIOSERVER); c) the development of an interface between the DIAS system (the European Digital Upper Atmosphere Server) and the HELIOSERVER and subsequently the enhancement of the DIAS database with metadata from solar observations; and d) the upgrade of ionospheric forecasting models implemented in the DIAS system for the real-time quantification of the effects of solar eruptive events. The project is funded through the KRIPIS/PROTEAS programme of the Greek Secretariat of Research and Technology.
17 p-poster   Simulating Geomagnetically Induced Currents in the Irish Power Network
      Blake, Seán P1; Gallagher, Peter T1; McCauley, Joseph1; Jones, Alan G2; Hogg, Colin2; Beggan, Ciarán3; Thomson,  Alan3; Kelly, Gemma3; Walsh, Sarah4
      1Trinity College Dublin; 2Dublin Institue for Advanced Studies; 3British Geological Survey; 4Eirgrid Plc
      Geomagnetic storms are known to cause geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which can damage or destroy transformers on power grids. Previous studies have examined the vulnerability of power networks in countries such as the UK, New Zealand, Canada and South Africa. Here we describe the application of a British Geological Survey (BGS) thin-sheet conductivity model to compute the geo-electric field from the variation of the magnetic field, in order to better quantify the risk of space weather to Ireland's power network. As part of a near-real-time warning package for Eirgrid (who oversee Ireland's transmission network), severe storm events such as the Halloween 2003 storm and the corresponding GIC flows at transformers are simulated.