Session 1 - Planetary Space Weather Services
Nicolas Andre (irap/cnrs); Manuel Grande (aberystwyth university); Jean Lilensten (cnrs/ipag); Iwona Stanislawska (src/pas)
Monday 27/11, 14:15 - 17:15
Mercator
KEYWORDS - planets ; space weather ; prediction ; detection ; modelling ; alerts ;
Planetary Space Weather Services (PSWS) aims at extending the concept of space weather to other planets in our Solar System. New studies, methods, interfaces, functionalities distributed over 4 service domains – 1) Prediction, 2) Detection, 3) Modelling, 4) Alerts are available or developed in order to extend the concepts of space situational awareness to planetary space weather. The session will be dedicated to a presentation of operational services and welcomes papers on all aspects of planetary space weather related to the above service domains. A topical issue in SWSC-journal will follow this session.
Poster ViewingFrom Monday noon to Wednesday morning Talks Monday November 27, 14:15 - 15:30, Mercator Monday November 27, 16:00 - 17:15, Mercator Click here to toggle abstract display in the schedule
Talks : Time scheduleMonday November 27, 14:15 - 15:30, Mercator| 14:15 | Planetary Space Weather Services for the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure | Andre, N et al. | Oral | | | N. André[1], M. Grande[2], and the PSWS Team[3] | | | [1]IRAP, CNRS-UPS, 9 avenue du colonel Roche, 31028 Toulouse, France; [2]Aberysthwyth University, Aberysthwyth, United Kingdom; [3]http://planetaryspaceweather-europlanet.irap.omp.eu (nicolas.andre@irap.omp.eu / Fax: +33-5-61-55-83-70) | | | Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI, http://www.europlanet-2020-ri.eu) includes an entirely new Virtual Access Service, “Planetary Space Weather Services” (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it.
PSWS will provide at the end of 2017 12 services distributed over 4 different service domains – 1) Prediction, 2) Detection, 3) Modelling, 4) Alerts. These services include 1.1) A 1D MHD solar wind prediction tool, 1.2) Extensions of a Propagation Tool, 1.3) A meteor showers prediction tool, 1.4) A cometary tail crossing prediction tool, 2.1) Detection of lunar impacts, 2.2) Detection of giant planet fireballs, 2.3) Detection of cometary tail events, 3.1) A Transplanet model of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling, 3.2) A model of the Mars radiation environment, 3.3.) A model of giant planet magnetodisc, 3.4) A model of Jupiter’s thermosphere, 4) A VO-event based alert system. We will provide an overview of the project as an introduction to the session where all of them will be detailed.
The proposed Planetary Space Weather Services will be accessible to the research community, amateur astronomers as well as to industrial partners planning for space missions dedicated in particular to the following key planetary environments: Mars, in support of ESA’s ExoMars missions; comets, building on the success of the ESA Rosetta mission; and outer planets, in preparation for the ESA JUpiter ICy moon Explorer (JUICE). These services will also be augmented by the future Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo observations. This new facility will not only have an impact on planetary space missions but will also allow the hardness of spacecraft and their components to be evaluated under variety of known conditions, particularly radiation conditions, extending their knownflight-worthiness for terrestrial applications.
Europlanet 2020 RI has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 654208.
| | 14:27 | An heliospheric propagation model for solar wind prediction at planets | Andre, N et al. | Oral | | | A. Goutenoir[1], M. Bouchemit[1], E. Budnik[2], C. Tao[3], N. André[1], and V. Génot[1] | | | [1]IRAP, CNRS-UPS, 9 avenue du colonel Roche, 31028 Toulouse, France; [2]Noveltis, Ramonville Saint Agne, France; [3]National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Tokyo, Japan (nicolas.andre@irap.omp.eu / Fax: +33-5- 61-55-83-70) | | | Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI, http://www.europlanet-2020-ri.eu) includes an entirely new Virtual Access Service, “Planetary Space Weather Services” (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it. PSWS will provide at the end of 2017 12 services distributed over 4 different service domains – 1) Prediction, 2) Detection, 3) Modelling, 4) Alerts. These services include in particular an heliospheric propagator for solar wind prediction at planets and probes that is based on a 1D magnetohydrodynamic propagation model originally developed by Tao et al. (2005). The service gives access to various propagated parameters including solar wind density, temperature, velocity, dynamic pressure, and tangential magnetic field. The present paper will first describe the solar wind propagation model, and then present the system architecture developed by the Space Plasma Physics Data Center (http://www.cdpp.eu) in France in order to make the service operational (http://heliopropa.irap.omp.eu). Europlanet 2020 RI has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 654208.
References
Tao, C. et al., Magnetic field variations in the Jovian magnetotail induced by solar wind dynamic, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 110, A11208, 10.1029/2004JA010959, 2005 | | 14:40 | Extensions of the CDPP/Propagation tool to the case of comets, giant planet auroral emissions, and catalogues of solar wind disturbances | Andre, N et al. | Oral | | | N. André[1], V. Génot[1], A. Rouillard[1], M. Bouchemit[1], S. Caussarieu[2], L. Beigbeder[2], J.-P. Toniutti[2], D. Popescu[2] | | | [1]IRAP, CNRS-UPS, 9 avenue du colonel Roche, 31028 Toulouse, France; [2]GFI Informatique, Toulouse, France (nicolas.andre@irap.omp.eu / Fax: +33-5-61-55-83-70) | | | Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI, http://www.europlanet-2020-ri.eu) includes an entirely new Virtual Access Service, “Planetary Space Weather Services” (PSWS) that will extend the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that voyage through it.
PSWS will provide at the end of 2017 12 services distributed over 4 different service domains – 1) Prediction, 2) Detection, 3) Modelling, 4) Alerts. GFI Informatique has extended the Propagation Tool available at CDPP (http://propagationtool.cdpp.eu) to the case of comets, giant planet auroral emissions, and catalogues of solar wind disturbances. The service provides new plug-ins including selection of comets as targets, visualization of their trajectories, projection onto solar maps, projection onto J-maps (maps of solar wind outflows obtained from the Heliospheric Imagers onboard STEREO spacecraft, in which multiple elongation profiles along a constant position angle are stacked in time, building an image in which radially propagating transients form curved tracks in the J-map; it will enable the user to use catalogue of solar wind disturbances in order to identify those that have impacted the planetary environments.
Europlanet 2020 RI has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 654208.
| | 14:52 | The reasons for false alarms at the prediction of high-speed solar wind streams near Earth, and consequences for the prediction at other planets | Hofmeister, S et al. | Oral | | | Stefan Hofmeister[1], Martin Reiss[1], Astrid Veronig[1], Manuela Temmer[1], Veronique Delouille[2], Susanne Vennerstrom[3] | | | [1]Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Austria; [2]Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium; [3]National Space Institute, DTU Space, Denmark | | | High-speed solar wind streams arising from solar coronal holes are the major source of minor and medium geomagnetic storms at Earth. Our team has developed the Empirical Solar Wind Forecast (ESWF) to predict the peak velocities of high-speed streams near Earth on the basis of coronal hole areas extracted from solar EUV images. This model operates for one year, and a recent evaluation of its performances yielded ~44 % false alarm rate. Here, we assess the main causes for the false alarm rate, and future solutions. Note that the false alarms can have various simultaneous reasons.
First, about 40 % of the false alarms are related to high-speed streams arising from coronal holes located at medium to high latitudes which only graze the Earth: our study showed that the peak velocity of high-speed streams and the corresponding strength of geomagnetic storms does not only depend on the area, but also on the solar latitude of the source coronal holes. We interpret this dependency as an effect of the 3-dimensional propagation of high-speed streams in the heliosphere, i.e., high-speed streams arising from low-latitude coronal holes propagate directly in the direction of Earth, whereas high-speed streams arising from coronal holes located at higher latitudes propagate in the direction of higher heliospheric latitudes, only grazing the Earth inducing negligible geomagnetic effects.
Second, 35 % of the false alarms are related to filament channels in the solar atmosphere, which have a similar EUV intensity and are thus sometimes erroneously identified as coronal holes, leading to false alarms. Our preliminary results show that supervised classification based on attributes computed from EUV and magnetogram images allows separating filament channels from coronal holes.
Third, 23 % of the false alarms are related to a falsely predicted arrival time, i.e., the high-speed streams hit the Earth, but earlier or later than expected.
Forth, 14 % of the false alarms are related CMEs, i.e., a high-speed stream was predicted but could not been measured since a CME arrived at the same time.
12 % of the false alarms could not been related to any of these reasons.
The implementation of these corrections will boost the accuracy of our forecasting method.
For the prediction of high-speed streams at Earth and other planets, we conclude that especially the three-dimensional propagation of high-speed streams in the heliosphere and the prediction of the arrival time will be an important factor. | | 15:05 | The Hohmann-Parker Effect and HESPERIA: Strategies for Solar Radiation Hazard Predictions Before, During and After Planetary Transits | Posner, A et al. | Oral | | | Arik Posner[1], Olga Malandraki[2] | | | [1]NASA Headquarters SMD, Washington DC 20546, USA; [2]IAASARS, National Observatory of Athens, 15236, Penteli, Greece | | | Sporadically, the sun unleashes radiation hazards in the form of solar energetic particles (SEPs) into the
heliosphere that can endanger human and robotic explorers, in particular in transit to and at the moon,
Mars or Venus. Aspects of radiation safety critically depend on reliable and timely forecasts of SEP
radiation hazards, in particular at times of the solar maximum, which is attractive for exploration
activities due to comparatively low levels of cosmic ray exposure, but poses a greater risk for SEP
occurrence. In this context, the REleASE and UMASEP SEP forecasting schemes, which exploit fast-moving
SEPs for warnings of the impending arrival of hazardous amounts of slower-moving SEPs, are at the forefront
of radiation hazard prediction. While currently undergoing testing to safeguard explorers in the Earth/moon
system only, a second unexpected recent development will allow expanding their usefulness to planetary
transfers. It was shown that spacecraft launched from Earth towards Mars and Venus following a Hohmann
minimum energy transfer trajectory have a strong tendency to remain well-connected magnetically to Earth
and/or the destination planet via the Parker magnetic field in the heliosphere. Along with the finding that
such magnetic connection conditions also establish on the return journeys we refer to this circumstance as
the Hohmann-Parker (HP) effect. The motion of charged particles, including their precursor fast-moving
particles and the bulk radiation hazard, is generally bound to magnetic field lines in the heliosphere. The
HESPERIA collaboration, funded by the EU, has bolstered the REleASE and UMASEP schemes
(https://www.hesperia.astro.noa.gr/). We will show the current state of knowledge on how these forecasts
can be applied to transfers to and potentially to stays at Mars, including through observations by MSL and
MAVEN, and we show how in the future smallsat missions could be used for testing this expanded concept. | | 15:17 | Estimating solar wind speeds from comet ion tail images | Jones, G et al. | Oral | | | Geraint H. Jones[1,2], Yudish Ramanjooloo[3] | | | [1]Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, Holmbury St. Mary, Dorking, Surrey RH5 6NT, UK; [2]The Centre for Planetary Sciences at UCL/Birkbeck, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK (g.h.jones@ucl.ac.uk); [3]University of Hawai’i, USA | | | As part of the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure Planetary Space Weather Services (PSWS), University College London’s Mullard Space Science Laboratory (MSSL) is making available software to estimate the speed of the solar wind at comets by measuring the orientation of their ion tails. As ion tails are cometary ions flowing downstream of the comet carried by the solar wind, images of the tails can provide a great deal of information about the solar wind speed at the comet. Software has been developed that allows the user to trace the ion tail, and, using information on the comet’s position and velocity at the time the image was taken, allows estimates to be made of the solar wind speed at the comet’s location in the inner heliosphere. These estimates can complement more accurate but limited measurements of the solar wind by spacecraft. We describe the software, its use, and limitations. The latter includes complications that arise when the solar wind flow is not purely radial, and difficulties in the use of the software when the Earth is crossing the plane of the target comet’s orbit. |
Monday November 27, 16:00 - 17:15, Mercator| 16:00 | Mars Radiation Surface Model | Grande, M et al. | Oral | | | Nathalia Alzate[1], Manuel Grande[1] and Daniel Matthiae[2] | | | [1]Institute of Mathematics, Physics and Computer Science, Aberystwyth, Cymru (m.grande@aber.ac.uk) erystwyth, Cymru (naa19@aber.ac.uk); [2]Institut fur Luft- und Raumfahrtmedizin (DLR Cologne) | | | Planetary Space Weather Services (PSWS) within the Europlanet H2020 Research Infrastructure have been developed following protocols and standards available in Astrophysical, Solar Physics and Planetary Science Virtual Observatories. Several VO-compliant functionalities have been implemented in various tools. The PSWS extends the concepts of space weather and space situational awareness to other planets in our Solar System and in particular to
spacecraft that voyage through it. One of the five toolkits developed as part of these services is a model dedicated to the Mars environment. This model has been developed at Aberystwyth University and the Institut fur Luft- und Raumfahrtmedizin (DLR Cologne) using modeled average conditions available from Planetocosmics. It is available for tracing propagation of solar events through the Solar System and modeling the response of the Mars environment.
The results have been synthesized into look-up tables parameterized to variable solar wind conditions at Mars. | | 16:12 | A generalized approach to model the spectra and radiation dose rate of solar particle events in deep space and on the surface of Mars | Guo, J et al. | Oral | | | Jingnan Guo[1], Cary Zeitlin[2], Robert F. Wimmer-Schweingruber[1], Thoren McDole[1], Patrick Kühl[1], Jan C. Appel[1], Bernd Heber[1], Johannes Krauss[1], Jan Köhler[1] | | | [1]University of Kiel; [2]Leidos, Houston, Texas, USA | | | For future human missions to Mars, it is important to study the surface radiation environment during extreme and alerted conditions. In the long term, it is mainly Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) modulated by solar activities that contribute to the radiation on the surface of Mars. In sporadic and impulsive short terms, solar energetic particles (SEPs) may enhance the radiation level significantly and should be noticed as immediately as possible to prevent severe damage to human activities. However, the energetic particle environment on the Martian surface is different from that in deep space due to the influence of the Martian atmosphere. Depending on the intensity and shape of the original solar particle spectra as well as particle types, the surface spectra may induce entirely different radiation effects. For instance, an intensive but soft SEP induced Martian surface radiation could be well within human health tolerances. In order to give immediate and precise alerts while avoiding unnecessary ones, it is important to model and well understand the atmospheric effect on the incoming SEPs including both protons and helium ions. In this paper, we have developed a generalized approach to quickly model the surface response of any given incoming proton/helium ion spectra and have applied it to a set of significant solar events that have taken place in the past, thus providing insights into the possible variety of Martian surface particle spectra and induced radiation environment during SEPs. | | 16:25 | A Transplanet model of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling at Earth, Mars, Jupiter, (Saturn and Venus) | Andre, N et al. | Oral | | | M. Indurain, A. Goutenoir, M. Bouchemit, M. Gangloff, N. Jourdane, P.-L. Blelly, A. Marchaudon, N. André, and V. Génot | | | IRAP, CNRS-UPS, 9 avenue du colonel Roche, 31028 Toulouse, France (nicolas.andre@irap.omp.eu / Fax: +33-5-61- 55-83-70) | | | Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet 2020 Research
Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI, http://www.europlanet-
2020-ri.eu) includes an entirely new Virtual Access
Service, “Planetary Space Weather Services”
(PSWS) that extends the concepts of space weather
and space situational awareness to other planets in
our Solar System and in particular to spacecraft that
voyage through it.
PSWS will provide at the end of 2017 12 services
distributed over 4 different service domains – 1)
Prediction, 2) Detection, 3) Modelling, 4) Alerts.
These services include in particular a Transplanet
model of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling at
Earth, Mars, and Jupiter that enables the users to
make runs on request of the model, archive and/or
connect the results of their simulation runs to various
tools developed in the Virtual Observatory. The
present paper will first describe the Transplanet
model (at Earth, IPIM, Marchaudon & Blelly, 2015),
and then present the system architecture developed
by the Space Plasma Physics Data Center
(http://www.cdpp.eu) in France in order to make the
service operational (http://transplanet.irap.omp.eu).
Europlanet 2020 RI has received funding from the
European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and
innovation program under grant agreement No
654208. | | 16:37 | A software tool for the finding of potential cometary tail crossings | Jones, G et al. | Oral | | | Geraint H. Jones[1,2] | | | [1]Mullard Space Science Laboratory, University College London, Holmbury St. Mary, Dorking, Surrey RH5 6NT, UK; [2]The Centre for Planetary Sciences at UCL/Birkbeck, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK (g.h.jones@ucl.ac.uk) | | | As part of the Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure Planetary Space Weather Services (PSWS), University College London’s Mullard Space Science Laboratory (MSSL) is developing software to allow the prediction of possible comet tails crossings. Comet’s ion tails are produced when cometary gases are ionized and join the solar wind that flows almost radially outwards from the Sun. Spacecraft can cross these comet tails if they are both downstream of the comet’s nucleus at the correct time, and that the solar wind speed is within a range that allows the cometary ions to arrive at the spacecraft when it is downstream. Several such instances of serendipitous comet tail crossings are known to have occurred [1,2,3]. The software allows spacecraft trajectories to be uploaded, and a database of all known comets is searched for periods when nuclei were upstream of the spacecraft path to allow solar wind within a reasonable velocity range to arrive at the spacecraft to allow detection and analysis. We shall give examples of the software in use, demonstrating its ability to “predict” known tail crossings.
References:
[1] Jones G. H., Balogh A., Horbury T. S., Nature, 404, 574, 2000
[2] Gloeckler G., Allegrini F., Elliott H. A., McComas D. J., Schwadron N. A., Geiss J., von Steiger R., Jones G. H., ApJ, 604, L121, 2004.
[3] Neugebauer M., et al., ApJ, 667, 1262, 2007. | | 16:50 | Implementation of a Space Weather VOEvent service at IRAP in the frame of Europlanet H2020 PSWS | Gangloff, M et al. | Oral | | | Michel Gangloff[1], Nicolas André[1], Vincent Génot[1], Baptiste Cecconi[2], Pierre Le Sidaner[2], Myriam Bouchemit[1], Elena Budnik[1], Nathanaël Jourdane[1] | | | [1]IRAP, CNRS Université Paul Sabatier Toulouse, France; [2]Observatoire de Paris, France | | | Under Horizon 2020, the Europlanet Research Infrastructure includes PSWS (Planetary Space Weather Services), a set of new services that extend the concepts of space weather and space situation awareness to other planets of our solar system. One of these services is an Alert service associated in particular with an heliospheric propagator tool for solar wind predictions at planets, a meteor shower prediction tool, and a cometary tail crossing prediction tool. This Alert service, is based on
VOEvent, an international standard proposed by the IVOA and widely used by the astronomy community.The VOEvent standard provides a means of describing transient celestial events in a machine readable format. VOEvent is associated with VTP, the VOEvent Transfer Protocol that defines the system by which VOEvents may be disseminated to the community.
This presentation will focus on the enhancements of the VOEvent standard necessary to take into account the needs of the Solar System community and Comet, a freely available and open source implementation of VTP used by PSWS for its Alert service. Comet is implemented by several partners of PSWS, including IRAP and Observatoire de Paris.
A use case will be presented for the heliospheric propagator tool based on extreme solar wind pressure pulses predicted at planets and probes from a 1D MHD model and real time observations of solar wind parameters.
Acknowledgements
Europlanet 2020 RI has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 654208 | | 17:02 | mach number and thetabn co-relation classification for space weather | Pipaliya, J et al. | Oral | | | Jivraj Pipaliya | | | -- | | | Mach number is a function of the angle variation between shock normal and upstream magnetic field
|
Posters| 1 | Planetary and cometary space weather predictions from observations near and far | Opitz, A et al. | e-Poster | | | Andrea Opitz[1], Karoly Szego[1], Zoltan Nemeth[1], Melinda Dosa[1], Zsuzsanna Dalya[1], Aniko Timar[1], Daniel Vech[1,2], Nicolas Andre[3] | | | [1]Wigner RCP, Budapest, Hungary (opitz.andrea@wigner.mta.hu); [2]University of Michigan, USA; [3]IRAP, Toulouse, France | | | Plasma processes at unmagnetized planets and comets strongly depend on the solar wind properties. Knowledge of space weather conditions around them is hence essential. Since in-situ solar wind observations are not always available, we derive them either indirectly from near planet/comet observations or by extrapolating them from far solar probes.
The indirect estimation of solar wind parameters nearby unmagnetized objects is possible, for instance enhanced magnetic field in the pile-up region around Venus indicates higher interplanetary magnetic field. For comets, we investigate the possibility to determine a solar wind pressure proxy based on in-situ data measured in the inner regions of the cometary magnetosphere close to the boundary of the diamagnetic cavity. This pressure proxy would be useful not only for comet related studies, but could also serve as a new independent input database for space weather propagation to other locations in the Solar System.
The solar wind propagation through extrapolation is based on spacecraft measurements at other heliospheric positions than our target. This can be a ballistic method or MHD propagation. Our group has developed the "magnetic lasso" method, where the simple ballistic method is enhanced by checking several theoretical magnetic connectivity situations between the target and the orbit of the solar probe. The reliability of such extrapolations depends on several factors: the quality and availability of the input solar wind data, the spatial separation of the observing spacecraft from the target, the limitations of the method with its assumptions, the current heliospheric space weather conditions and so forth.
The Planetary Space Weather Services (PSWS) in the scope of the EU H2020 Europlanet Research Infrastructure aims to provide a comprehensive set of tools including an extended database in order to provide the planetary community easy access to these predictions. Before making them publicly available, extensive validation is performed. In this paper we describe the validation activites of the CDPP Propagation Tool and the CDPP AMDA database for their Venus, Mars and Comet 67P predictions, which is part of the PSWS project.
| | 2 | Automatic Lunar Flash Investigation (ALFI) Software | Cook, A et al. | e-Poster | | | Anthony Cook, Manuel Grande | | | Aberyswtyth University | | | When meteoroids, travelling at tens of kilometers per second, strike the lunar surface, they produce brief flashes of light, lasting typically less than a 1/10th of a second. Just under one percent of the kinetic energy released, from gram to kilogram mass objects, is converted into light. The optical emission from the resultant fireball, can be enough, in terms of received flux here on Earth, to be detected as a flash of light brighter than magnitude 10. This can be recorded using Earth-based telescopes, equipped with light sensitive video cameras [1].
An ALFI software package is being written to detect automatically impact flashes in video of the Moon. ALFI is not intended to replace the LunarScan software [2] made available by NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. Nor will it supercede the advanced MIDAS software [3] by José M. Madiedo. However because ALFI uses a different algorithmic approach to the above, and is capable of working with non-tracking Dobsonian video, and under lunar day side and terminator conditions, it can handle a wider variety of video footage, and may be used to compliment checks for impact flashes by LunarScan and MIDAS.
ALFI utilizes a simple local point detector, looking for maxima within 3x3 portions of each video frame that lie N standard deviations above the neighboring 8 pixels in the spatial domain and above M standard deviations for the same pixel in the time domain. Because flashes can be of different sizes, the algorithm is convolved over smaller versions of images produced by averaging 2x2, 3x3, … pixels. Likewise in the time domain the algorithm works on time averages to cater for different flash durations. When applied to the dayside and terminator areas of the Moon, a blurred edge mask will be used to prevent the software triggering false detections due to atmospheric seeing effects on contrasty crater rims.
At the time of writing, the ALFI software is undergoing testing and development, but when ready will be made publically available to both amateur and professional astronomers, towards the end of 2017, for the detecting short term lunar changes. This software project was funded under the Horizon 2020, Europlanet 2020 Research Infrastructure (EPN2020-RI, http://www.europlanet-2020-ri.eu).
References:
[1] Cudnik. B., Lunar Meteoric Impacts and How to Observe Them, Springer, pp 240, 2010. [2] Suggs, R.M. et al. Icarus, 238, 23-36, 2014 [3] Madiedo J.M., et al., Advances in Astronomy, doi:10.1155/2010/167494, 201
| | 3 | Testing space weather connections in the solar system | Grison, B et al. | p-Poster | | | B. Grison[1], J. Soucek[1], V. Krupar[2,3,1], D. Písa[1], O. Santolík[1], U. Taubenschuss[1] and F. Nemec[4] | | | [1]Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, Prague, Czech Republic ; [2]Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland, USA; [3]NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA; [4]Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic | | | This study aims at testing and validating tools for prediction of the impact of solar events in the vicinity of inner and outer solar system planets using in-situ spacecraft data (primarily MESSENGER, STEREO and ACE, but also VEX and Cassini), remote Jovian observations (Hubble telescope, Nançay decametric array), existing catalogues (HELCATS and Winslow et al., 2015) and the tested propagating models (the ICME radial propagation tool of the CDPP and the 1-D MHD code propagation model presented in (Tao et al., 2005). We achieved our results using AMDA and VESPA web tools.
We first present the results concerning ICME propagation between various bodies of the inner solar system, starting from Mercury.
Detailed comparisons between observations and propagation tool predictions lead us to the following results. The propagation tool is accurate for impact prediction (84%) with a time accuracy of about 10 hours. We also propose to slightly modify the default parameters of the propagation tool by increasing the default radial propagating velocity by 50 km/s (550 instead of 500 km/s). We also note that the ICME propagation velocity decreases with increasing distance from the Sun. In addition to corresponding statistics, we also present a case study of an ICME that is observed at Mercury by MESSENGER, then at Venus by VEX and at L1 by ACE.
Then we investigate the prediction facilities to two outer planets, Saturn and Jupiter.
We also present our results on prediction accuracy of the magnetic field tangential component by the Tao et al. model as a function of Saturn-Earth-Sun angle.
Results of the last part of our study indicate a potential correlation of 149 dates of predicted ICME impacts with intensifications of the remotely observed Jovian auroral activity (Hubble images of Jovian aurorae and the radio emissions observed at the Nançay radiostation are available through the VESPA web service).
Acknowledgements:
This work has been carried out with the support from the Europlanet 2020 research infrastructure. Europlanet 2020 RI has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 654208.
We acknowledge the CDPP for their support.
We thank G. B. Hospodarsky (University of Iowa) for the Cassini/RPWS density estimates and the team of M. E. Hill (JHU/APL) for the list of the averaged solar wind speeds obtained by the Cassini/MIMI instrument. | | 4 | Representation of planetary environments by universal paraboloid magnetospheric magnetic field model | Kalegaev, V et al. | p-Poster | | | Vladimir Kalegaev, Igor Alexeev, Elena Belenkaya, Sergey Bobrovnikov | | | Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia | | | Dynamics of the planetary environment depends strongly on the magnetospheric magnetic field. Space weather applications that intended to describe or forecast electrodynamics processes in the planetary magnetospheres (like SEP penetration or variations of the trapped particle fluxes) need in the reliable model of the magnetic field that takes into account the influence of interplanetary environment and solar activity. Paraboloid model of the Earth's magnetosphere developed at Moscow State University is intended to calculate the magnetic field generated from a variety of current systems located on the boundaries and within the boundaries of the Earth's magnetosphere under a wide range of environmental conditions, quiet and disturbed, affected by Solar-Terrestrial interactions simulated by Solar activity such as Solar Flares and related phenomena which induce terrestrial magnetic disturbances such as Magnetic Storms. The model depends on a small set of physical input parameters, characterizing the large-scale magnetospheric current systems intensity and location, such as geomagnetic dipole tilt angle, the distance to the subsolar point of the magnetosphere, etc. The input parameters depend on real-time, or near-real-time Empirical Data that include solar wind and IMF data, as well as the geomagnetic indices. The generalized model was implemented to represent the magnetospheres of magnetized planets Saturn, Jupiter, Mercury. Specific features of the magnetospheres and the interactive models of the Earth's, Kronian and Mercury's magnetospheres have been realized at the Space Monitoring Data Center of SINP MSU. Real-time model of the Earth's magnetosphere is working at SINP MSU Space Weather Web-site. This model and related services are preparing now to be implemented for easy data exchange within H2020 "Europlanet" infrastructure. This research is supported by Russian Ministry of Education and Science (Grant No RFMEFI61617X0084). | | 5 | Study on a statistical model of the relativistic electron flux forecastat geostationary orbit | Zhong, Q et al. | p-Poster | | | Zhong Qiu-Zhen[1,2], Zhen Jing-Lei[3], Liu Si-qing[1,2], Lin Rui-lin[1], Gong Jian-cun[1] | | | [1]National Space Science Center, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; [2]School of Astronomy and Space Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A Yuquan Road, Beijing 100049,China; [3]College of Science, The University of Alabama in Huntsvile, Alabama 35899, America | | | Based on the theory of local acceleration by chorus mode wave, AE index is selected as a good indicator for both seed electron flux and anisotropy, while Dst index is selected as a good indicator for relativistic electron loss. A prediction model for relativistic electrons at GEO orbit which takes AE and Dst index as input parameters has been established on the basis of linear filter technology. The model is tested to predict relativistic electrons flux from 2000 to 2009. The total prediction efficiency (PE) of relativistic electrons flux from 2000 to 2009 is 0.818. The PE of 2009 is the highest,about 0.856. The PE of 2003 is the lowest PE,about 0.663. The model performs significantly better than persistence model and slightly less than the model which selected solar wind as the input parameters and were developed by the same method.. Furthermore, we improved our model by taking solar wind speed as an additional input parameter. The PE of 2000 to 2009 increased with years. The PE of 2005 increased by 9.5%. | | 6 | Revealing the pivot energy of SEPs contributing to the Martian surface radiation environment | Guo, J et al. | p-Poster | | | Jingnan Guo[1], Robert~F. Wimmer-Schweingruber[1], Manuel Grande[2], Tom Knight[2], Zoe Hannah Lee-Payne[2] | | | [1]University of Kiel, Germany; [2]University of Aberystwyth, UK | | | Intense and sporadic solar energetic particle (SEP) events may induce acute health effects and have been one of the most critical mission risks for future human explorations to Mars. It is of utmost importance to study, model and predict the surface radiation environment during such extreme and elevated conditions. Upon the onset of sudden SEP events, it is essential to detect, as immediately as possible, the energetic particles relevant for the radiation environment at Mars in order to prevent severe damages to humans and equipment operating at the Martian surface.
Based on a statistical and parametric study of more than 30 significant solar events with different power-law indices, we have obtained some empirical correlations for estimating the induced surface dose rate from any given power-law shaped SEP spectra.
We have also found a pivot energy (~ 300 MeV) at which the intensity alone can be used to determine the surface dose rate radiation induced by a power-shaped SEP event. Such quantified correlations can be used to make instant predictions of the radiation enviroment on the surface of Mars upon the onset of SEP events. |
|
|
