Session 2 - Best Practice In Transitioning Existing Space Science Tools To Operational SW Prediction Systems

Giovanni Lapenta (KULeuven); David Jackson (Met Office), Suzy Bingham (Met Office);Stefaan Poedts (KUL), Manolis Georgoulis (Athens), Mauro Messerotti (Trieste)
Monday 27/11, 14:15 - 17:15
Delvaux


KEYWORDS - operational space weather, science versus practical uses, quantifying quality of services

Operational space weather prediction is a most urgent priority for Europe. Our session attempts to integrate the best practices from other disciplines (e.g. terrestrial weather forecasting) into operational space weather systems. We welcome contributions from related communities, ”use cases" showing how good practice has been followed. Special attention is given to ESA/EC projects, assessments from end users, robustness, reliability and testing of near-real time observation processing and space weather prediction modelling.

Poster Viewing
From Monday noon to Wednesday morning

Talks
Monday November 27, 14:15 - 15:30, Delvaux
Monday November 27, 16:00 - 17:15, Delvaux

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Talks : Time schedule

Monday November 27, 14:15 - 15:30, Delvaux

14:15	ADAPT Model R2O Life Cycle: modify, test, repeat	Henney, C et al.	Invited Oral
	Carl J. Henney[1], Kathleen Shurkin[1], C. Nick Arge[2], David T. MacKenzie[3], Eric Adamson[4], Andrew R. Marble[5]
	[1]Air Force Research Laboratory, Space Vehicles Directorate, Kirtland AFB, NM, USA; [2]NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; [3]AER, Inc., Lexington, MA, USA; [4]CIRES University of Colorado / NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO, USA; [5]National Solar Observatory, Boulder, CO, USA
	The general research to operations (R2O) life cycle of the ADAPT (Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport) model, along with lessons learned, will be presented. The ADAPT flux transport model has been developed over the past ten years to evolve an ensemble of global map realizations forward in time, applying relatively well-understood transport processes, and then update the ensemble with data assimilation methods that take into account model and observational uncertainties. Reliable estimates of the global solar photospheric magnetic field distribution, used as the primary input to nearly all coronal models, are critical for accurate modeling and forecasting of solar and heliospheric magnetic fields. For the past five years, the ADAPT model has operated continuously in a prototype mode at the National Solar Observatory, generating global photospheric magnetic maps in near real-time. During this prototyping phase, we also integrated the SIFT (Solar Indices Forecasting Tool) model to utilize future ADAPT global maps to forecast selected bands of solar soft X-ray (XUV), far ultraviolet (FUV), and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance, along with observed F10.7 (solar 10.7 cm, 2.8 GHz, radio flux), based on the method outlined in Henney et al. 2015. Currently, the ADAPT model is in the process of being transitioned for operations at NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The ADAPT model development is supported primarily by AFRL, with additional support from NASA.
14:45	SWiFT-FORECAST: A physics-based realtime solar wind forecast pipeline	Pinto, R et al.	Oral
	Rui F. Pinto[1], Alexis P. Rouillard[1], V. Génot[1], T. Amari[2], E. Buchlin[3], N. Arge[4]
	[1]IRAP, Université de Toulouse, UPS-OMP, IRAP, Toulouse, France; [2]Center for Theoretical Physics, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France; [3]Institut d’Astrophysique Spatiale, Université Paris Sud, Orsay, France; [4]NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
	We present a new real-time solar wind forecasting pipeline named SWiFT (Solar Wind Flux-Tube)-FORECAST developed at IRAP. SWiFT couples together a series of modules derived from mature research models: determination of the background coronal magnetic field, calculation of the properties of many individual solar wind streams from ~1 to 30 solar radii, propagation across the heliosphere and formation of CIRs, estimation of synthetic diagnostics (white-light COR/HI and EUV imaging, in-situ time-series) and comparison to observations and spacecraft measurements. The multiple flux-tube approach allows for very significant gains in computation time in respect to the full 3D MHD problem. SWiFT currently uses a combination of existing surface magnetograms and PFSS extrapolations but the interface is ready to include different combinations of magnotograms sources (WSO, SOLIS, GONG), flux-transport and data assimilation techniques (ADAPT), coronal field reconstruction methods (NLFFF, Solar Models), wind models (MULTI-VP), and heliospheric propagation models (CDPP/AMDA 1D MHD, ENLIL, EUHFORIA). The goal is provide continuously a full set of bulk physical parameters of the solar wind based solely on physical principles (wind speed, density, temperature, magnetic field, phase speeds) up to 6-7 days in advance, and at a time cadence and a forecast compatible with space weather applications. This is work is supported by the CNES.
15:00	Open boundary conditions in Lagrangian models of heliosphere.	Olshevsky, V et al.	Oral
	Vyacheslav Olshevsky, Fabio Bacchini, Stefaan Poedts, Giovanni Lapenta
	Center for mathematical Plasma-Astrophysics, KU Leuven
	Magnetohydrodynamic particle-in-cell code Slurm has been developed at KU Leuven. The code employs particles (moving in a Lagrangian grid) which represent fluid parcels carrying conserved quantities and electromagnetic vector potential. As these quantities are naturally advected by particles, Slurm has extremely low numerical dissipation, and is a perfect tool for studies of magnetic field evolution through heliosphere. Slurm is parallelized using task-based model, with OpenMP multi-threading and compiler vectorization. We discuss its application to space weather problems such as solar wind and CME propagation in heliosphere. However, special care of boundary conditions needs to be taken in particle-based models. We discuss the best practices and describe our implementation of inlet and outlet boundary conditions. Examples are given in both Cartesian and general coordinates which are especially useful for space weather modeling. This work is funded by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Air Force Materiel Command, USAF under Award No. FA9550-14-1-0375.
15:15	Addressing the need for coordinated assessment, development and deployment of operational space weather prediction capabilities	Kuznetsova, M et al.	Oral
	M. Kuznetsova, M.L. Mays, L. Rastaetter, J-S. Shim, Y. Zheng, C. Wiegand, P.J. Macneice
	NASA GSFC
	The CCMC’s web-based services, and tools have transformed the way state-of-the-art models are utilized in research to advance understanding of space weather phenomena. The CCMC has gained experience in preparing complex models for operational environments and has pioneered the path from research models and science ideas to actionable displays, space weather applications, prototyping, and operations. It has become increasingly clear that the research-to-operations (R2O) transition is not a simple one-way (R2O) or two-way (R2O-O2R) bridge over the ‘Valley of Death”. Instead there is a need for a hub enabling multi-way interconnections between all essential components of the space weather capability system: research, observations, modeling, dissemination. The presentation will discuss on-going international community efforts to create coordinated, collaborative, information-sharing environment that brings together international scientific, engineering, operational communities, and uses of space weather product and services to address challenges in assessment, development and deployment of operational space weather capabilities.

Monday November 27, 16:00 - 17:15, Delvaux

16:00	The ESA Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre – Part 2	Poedts, S et al.	Oral
	Stefaan Poedts and Andrey Kochanov[1], Andrea Lani and Herman Deconinck[4], Nicolae Mihalache and Fabien Diet[6], Daniel Heynderickx[5], Johan De Keyser, Erwin De Donder, Norma B. Crosby and Marius Echim[2], Luciano Rodriguez, Robbe Vansina, Freek Verstringe and Benjamin Mampaey[3], Richard Horne, Sarah Glauert and John Isles[7], Piers Jiggens, Ralf Keil, Alexi Glover and Juha-Pekka Luntama[8]
	[1]the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven; [2]the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB); [3]the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB); [4]the Von Karman Institute (VKI); [5]DH Consultancy (DHC); [6]Space Applications Services (SAS); [7]British Antarctic Survey (BAS); [8]ESA
	The goal of the ESA ITT project AO-1-8384-15-1-NB VSWMC-Part 2 is to further develop the Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC), building on the Phase 1 prototype system and focusing on the interaction with the ESA SSA SWE system. The objective and scopes of this project include: 1. The efficient integration of new models and new model couplings, including a first demonstration of an end-to-end simulation capability. 2. The further development and wider use of the coupling toolkit and the front-end GUI which will be designed to be accessible via the SWE Portal. 3. Availability of more accessible input and output data on the system and development of integrated visualization tool modules. The consortium that took up this challenge involves: 1) the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Prime Contractor, coordinator: Prof. S. Poedts); 2) the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB); 3) the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB); 4) the Von Karman Institute (VKI); 5) DH Consultancy (DHC); 6) Space Applications Services (SAS); 7) British Antarctic Survey (BAS). The VSWMC-Part 2 project started on 17 February 2016, and spans a period of two years. At the time of the ESWW14 meeting, Part 2B will be finished and the VSWMC-P2 development will be in its final (validation) phase. This means that the core system will be fully deployed, all the envisaged models for Phase 2 will be installed, including the data provision nodes and the visualization federates, as well as the front-end and the first version of the user GUI. We expect that even most of the model couplings will be ready by then so that a small demonstration can be given at ESWW14. The VSWMC system is being developed under ESA's Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme and is intended to become an operational system as part of the ESA SSA SWE system.
16:15	Modeling Ideal Two-Fluid Plasmas: A new approach with COOLFluiD	Ozak, N et al.	Oral
	Nataly Ozak[1], Alejandro Alvarez Laguna[1,2], Andrea Lani[2], Yana Maneva[1], Stefaan Poedts[1]
	[1]KU Leuven; [2]Von Karman Institute
	We present a numerical model we have developed within the COOLFluiD framework to simulate ideal two-fluid plasmas. Here, electron and ions are considered as two separate charged fluids that interact with the magnetic fields. Hence, our system of equations consists of the fluid equations for each plasma species and Maxwell’s equations. Unlike other two-fluid models, we do not impose charge neutrality and include the displacement current in Maxwell’s equations. We consider the full system of equations as a system of balance laws comprised of a time derivative term, a flux and a source term, requiring a different solving approach than MHD models. We have developed a finite volume method on unstructured meshes to solve this system of equations, which also includes hyperbolic divergence cleaning to enforce the elliptic constraints of Maxwell’s equations. We compare our results to commonly used benchmarks in MHD to validate the model implementation and accuracy. In particular, we present our results of a simulated circularly polarized wave, a Brio-Wu shock tube, and magnetic reconnection in two-fluid plasma. We find that our model successfully reproduces the results expected in all test cases, adding some important insight compared to the MHD models since we included different electron and ion dynamics. Furthermore, we are able to simulate drift waves with our approach, which are important to consider when simulating confined plasmas. The present model could easily be included in the Virtual Space Weather Monitoring Centre (ESA), as it is an extra module of the COOLFLuiD framework, which is already part of the VSWMC.
16:30	A probabilistic implementation for the Drag-Based Model	Del moro, D et al.	Oral
	Dario Del Moro[1], Gianluca Napoletano[2], Roberta Forte[1], Ermanno Pietropaolo[2], Luca Giovannelli[1], Francesco Berrilli[1]
	[1]Università degli studi di Roma "Tor Vergata"; [2]Università degli studi di L'Aquila
	The forecast of the time of arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) to Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the knowledge of its precision, i.e.: the error associated to the estimate. We propose a statistical approach for the computation of the time of arrival using the Drag-Based Model by introducing the probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, thus allowing the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast. We test this approach using a set of CMEs whose transit times are known, and obtain extremely promising results: the average value of the absolute differences between measure and forecast is 8.5h, and 66% of these residuals are within the estimated errors. We are realizing a real-time implementation which ingests the outputs of automated CME tracking algorithms as inputs to create a database of events useful for a further validation of the approach and for timely warnings
16:45	Developing an improved Aurora prediction model for operational use	Jackson, D et al.	Oral
	Diana Morosan[1], David Jackson[2], Suzy Bingham[2] and Rodney Viereck[3]
	[1]Trinity College Dublin; [2]Met Office; [3]NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
	The OVATION Prime (OP) Aurora Forecast Model produces a probability of the intensity and location of the aurora based on current solar wind conditions measured at L1. The delay time between L1 and Earth means that the model produces a forecast of auroral conditions with a lead time of typically 30 minutes. OP has been used operationally by NOAA for several years. However, this version is not applicable for higher disturbance levels (Kp greater than around 5) and can produce noisy output. In this paper we describe work to operationalise a newer version of OP in which these issues are addressed. Steps to make the model operational include: - conversion of the source code from IDL to Python, which in future shall be a preferred language at both operational centres (Met Office and NOAA) involved in this study - validate the improved OP Python model results with corresponding IDL results and with results from the older OP version - develop verification of the OP model results against observations - develop new visualisation of the results consistent with the Python code and Met Office operational requirements In addition we shall discuss results of from a 3-day forecast version of OP, driven using forecast indices.
17:00	Best practices for validating and transitioning to operations the space weather services offered by University of Alcala through SeNMEs portal.	Guerrero, A et al.	Oral
	Antonio Guerrero[1],Consuelo Cid[1],Judith Palacios[1], Elena Saiz[1], Yolanda Cerrato[1]
	[1]Space Weather Group, Departamento de Física y Matemáticas, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Spain
	Since 2010, the space weather services developed at the University of Alcala have grown in number and functionalities. Users awareness of space weather has also increased and so their needs. Consequently, methods used for design, verification and validation have required to be in continual process improvement. In this work we show our best learnt practices related to all the operational services developed by University of Alcala (Space Weather group) and available through SeNMEs (www.senmes.es); Dst warning model, recovery phase forecast, monitoring of geomagnetic Local Disturbance index and Local Current index, Dst and SYMH forecasting and four end-user scales.

Posters

1	Validation-Based Decision Making	Georgoulis, M et al.	e-Poster
	Manolis K. Georgoulis
	RCAAM of the Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
	We propose a critical assessment of the merit different validation approaches have to offer to the modern decision maker. Regardless of the specifics of a prediction problem and its methods, diverse validation techniques can offer an array of convoluted information that can fit certain risk scenarios, from the simplest possible notions of "miss" and "false alarm" to intermediate "climatology" and "randomness", to a more advanced weighting of risk in both binary and probabilistic forecasting. An overview of the rationale behind well-known skill scores is presented to make the point that we still stand at a very basic, "entry" level with respect to the use of such techniques for the protection of various investments from space-weather induced risk. We conclude by promoting a long-term, international synergistic effort with a dual task: first, for different infrastructures to define their protection needs using economical, engineering and policy arguments and, second, for scientists to best fit these needs to specific validation strategies in order to identify the objectives the employed prediction methods must pursue.
2	Robust NARMAX model and forecast of geomagnetic indices	Yatsenko, V et al.	e-Poster
	Vitaliy Yatsenko
	Space Research Institute of the NASU-NSAU
	The NARMAX methodology is a powerful technique that is commonly used in the field of systems identification. It is capable of providing a nonlinear mathematical model of the system as well as providing an insight into the processes that are involved in the evolution of the nonlinear system. One possible application of this technique the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, that can regarded as outputs of a complex dynamical system that incorporates both the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Results of NARMAX based approach to the dynamics of Kp and Dst indices are reviewed. It is shown how the transform of the identified mathematical model of geomagnetic indices from time domain to the frequency domain can be used to determine the properties of the physical processes involved. New approach to prediction problem is considered.
3	The Ionosphere Prediction Service Project	Cesaroni, C et al.	e-Poster
	Claudio Cesaroni[1], Filippo Rodriguez[2], Giorgiana De Franceschi[1], Marcio Aquino[3], Francesco Berrili[4], Michael Hutchinson[5], Ganesh Lalgudi Gopalakrishnan[6], Sreeja. Vaddake Veettil[3], Luca Spogli[1], Vincenzo Romano[1], Roberto Ronchini[2], Stefano Di Rollo[2] and Dario Del Moro[4].
	[1]Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, Rome, IT; [2]TELESPAZIO, Rome, IT; [3]University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK; [4]University of Tor Vergata, Rome, IT; [5]Nottingham Scientific Limited, Nottingham, UK; [6]TELESPAZIO VEGA, Darmstadt, DE
	The Ionosphere Prediction Service (IPS) is an on-going project funded by the EC (project 434/PP/GRO/RCH/15/8381; 2016-2018). IPS is led by TELESPAZIO (IT) in collaboration with the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanolgia (INGV-IT), the University of Nottingham (UNOTT-UK), the University of Tor Vergata (UTOV-IT), the Nottingham Scientific Ltd (NSL, UK) and TELESPAZIO VEGA (DE). The scope of this project is to design and develop a service prototype capable of providing different products to GNSS users and service providers that can assist with early warnings and predictions on the state of the ionosphere. Such products are fine-tuned to match the needs of the different communities (aviation, mass market, critical infrastructures monitoring etc.) to which the service is targeted. The core scientific contribution of the project is represented by the research activities carried out by the project’s research collaborators (i.e. INGV, UNOTT and UTOV) with the aim to go beyond the state of the art in understanding the impact of significant ionospheric-related geophysical events on today’s technology-based society. The outputs of the research activities are nowcasting and forecasting tools, dealing with different topics that can be divided into three blocks: Solar and Space-Weather Monitoring (UTOV), Ionosphere weather monitoring and forecasting (INGV) and Receiver and user positioning performance (UNOTT). TELESPAZIO is in charge of integrating all the products into a Central Processing and Storage Facility (CPSF) as a chain of processors capable of describing the Space-Weather phenomena from the sun to the ionosphere affecting the GNSS service provider and user community. In this paper, we describe the algorithms and tools as well as the strategy adopted to validate them.
4	EUHFORIA: a solar wind and CME evolution model	Poedts, S et al.	e-Poster
	l S. Poedts[1], J. Pomoell[2], C. Verbeke[1], C. Scolini[1], N. Wijsen[1], E. Kipua[2], E. Lumme[2], E. Palmerio[2], A. Isavnin[2]
	[1]KU Leuven; [2]University of Helsinki
	We present the latest state-of-the-art update of the new physics-based forecasting-targeted inner heliosphere model EUHFORIA (‘EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset’) that we are developing. EUHFORIA consists of a coronal model and a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) heliosphere model with CMEs. The aim of the baseline coronal model is to produce realistic plasma conditions at the interface radius r = 0.1 AU between the two models thus providing the necessary input to the time-dependent, three-dimensional MHD heliosphere model. It uses GONG synoptic line-of-sight magnetograms as input for a potential (PFSS) field extrapolation of the low-coronal magnetic field coupled to a current sheet (CS) model of the extended coronal magnetic field. The plasma variables at the interface radius are determined by employing semi-empirical considerations based on the properties of the PFSS+CS field such as the flux tube expansion factor and distance to nearest coronal hole. The heliosphere model computes the time-dependent evolution of the MHD variables from the interface radius typically up to 2 AU. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are injected at the interface radius using a hydrodynamic cone-like model using parameters constrained from fits to coronal imaging observations. In order to account for the modification of the heliosphere due to the presence of earlier CMEs, the standard run scenario includes CMEs launched five days prior to the start of the forecast, while the duration of the forecast extends up to seven days. In addition to presenting results of the modeling, we will highlight our on-going efforts to advance beyond the baseline in the forecasting pipeline. In particular we discuss the performance of the novel magnetized CME flux-rope models. We also mention our plans for the application of a time-dependent coronal model as well as modeling the transport of solar energetic particles (SEPs) in the heliosphere, and discuss the tests with solution AMR (Adaptive Mesh Refinement) for the background wind and the evolution of magnetized CME clouds and shock waves. EUHFORIA has alrady been integrated in the ESA VSWMC-P2 and coupled to magnetospheric models and others (e.g. Dst and Kp index models).
5	Finalizing the FLARECAST Project	Georgoulis, M et al.	e-Poster
	Manolis K. Georgoulis[1], D. Shaun Bloomfield[2] and the FLARECAST Consortium
	[1]RCAAM of the Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece; [2]Department of Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK
	The EU Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting (FLARECAST) project has been undertaken by a Consortium of nine institutes distributed within six European countries. It has been assigned to develop the first EU-funded operational solar flare prediction service. It has also pledged to become humanity's most systematic and concerted effort in this respect, testing and evaluating on equal footing all flare predictors ever proposed, among others developed in the project's framework. We offer a glimpse of the project's close-to-final results, both in terms of forecasting and validation, at the same time explaining our practices and procedures toward the three core FLARECAST objectives: understand flare occurrence, provide a user-friendly, expandable service and engage with the scientific community, policy makers and the public. We conclude that, even in fairly sizable Consortia, everybody has an integral, closely-knit role within the overall scope of the Consortium. We further argue that ESA's Space Situational Awareness Programme should act to avoid effort duplication in developing or improving pre-operational flare prediction services and count on FLARECAST as its future operational flare prediction platform. FLARECAST is an EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Action, implemented under grant agreement no. 640216.
6	Combining photospheric and coronal observations to produce flare activity predictors	Kontogiannis, I et al.	p-Poster
	Ioannis Kontogiannis[1], Costis Gontikakis[1], Jordan, A. Guerra[2], Sung-Hong Park[2], Manolis Georgoulis[1]
	[1]Research Center for Astronomy and Applied Mathematics, Academy of Athens; [2]School of Physics, Trinity College Dublin
	Efficient prediction of solar flares depends on quantities that parameterize the eruptive capability of solar active regions. Traditionally, these are based either on the morphological complexity of active regions, as inferred by continuum observations (e.g. Mt Wilson or McIntosh classification) or on parameters derived by photospheric magnetic field observations. In this study, we combine the Space Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) database with measurements of the Gaussian AIA DEm Maps (GAIA-DEM) database to test and develop quantitative morphological flaring activity predictors which can be used in operational flare forecasting schemes. The set of predictors developed or tested include a) the sum of the horizontal magnetic field gradient (proposed by Korsos & Erdelyi, 2016), b) the Ising energy of the sunspot umbrae distribution (which is a modification of the Ising energy proposed by Ahmed et al. 2010) and c) quantities derived from maps of the DEM of active-regions. Results imply that these are promising indicators of flaring activity and could be used in automated prediction schemes. Out of the set of predictors tested, the sum of the horizontal gradient of the magnetic field and the Ising energy of the sunspot umbrae, which combine magnetic field information and continuum light observations are the most efficient for the specific sample used for testing. This study has received partial support by the EU Horizon 2020 FLARECAST Project (Grant Agreement No. 640216).
7	Polarity-inversion-line properties in eruptive solar active regions and corresponding CME characteristics	Kontogiannis, I et al.	p-Poster
	Ioannis Kontogiannis, Manolis Georgoulis
	Research Center for Astronomy and Applied Mathematics, Academy of Athens
	Coronal mass ejections are key drivers of space weather and can cause a series of effects on the geospace environment. It has been clear that the fastest of them - when reaching Earth - are responsible for the most dramatic effects such as geomagnetic storms, Solar Particle Events and Ground Level Enhancements. Combining online-databases of CME characteristics with the ever-increasing databases of source active-region magnetic field measurements and derived eruptivity parameters, we can improve our understanding on the driving mechanism and our abilities to produce accurate forecasts. We investigate the relation between two indicators of the eruptive capability of solar active-regions, namely, the total non-neutralized currents and the effective connected magnetic field strength (Beff), with the characteristics of the CMEs produced. To this end, we utilize the DONKI and LASCO databases, along with HMI vector magnetic field observations of active-regions. We find a fair correlation between the two predictors and CME kinematic characteristics. This correlation increases and becomes significant for CMEs faster than 700 km/s, which are the most important in terms of induced space weather. Non-neutralized currents are better correlated with CME characteristics than Beff, which we attribute partly to a relatively increased sensitivity of the latter with respect to the source active-region position on the solar disk. This study has received partial support by the EU Horizon 2020 FLARECAST Project (Grant Agreement No. 640216).
8	Numerical Modelling of Stealth Solar Eruptions	Talpeanu, D et al.	p-Poster
	Dana-Camelia Talpeanu[1,2], Francesco Zuccarello[1], Emmanuel Chané[1], Stefaan Poedts[1], Elke D'Huys[2], Skralan Hosteaux[1], Marilena Mierla[2]
	[1]CmPA, KU Leuven; [2]Royal Observatory of Belgium
	Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are huge expulsions of magnetized plasma from the Sun into the interplanetary medium. A particular class of CMEs are the so-called stealth CMEs, i.e., solar eruptions that are clearly distinguished in coronagraph observations, but that are not associated with clear signatures close to the Sun, such as solar flares, coronal dimmings, EUV waves, or post-flare loop arcades. Observational studies show that quite often (about 60%) stealth CMEs are preceded by another CME whose solar origin could be identified. In order to determine the triggering mechanism for stealth CMEs we are using the MPI-AMRVAC code developed at KU Leuven. As initial condition, we consider a multipolar magnetic field constituted by three magnetic arcades embedded in a globally bipolar magnetic field. This configuration results in the formation of a coronal null point, i.e., a location where the magnetic field goes to zero. These are locations where current sheets are formed and magnetic reconnection can develop. Starting from this configuration, we simulate consecutive CMEs, where the first one is driven through shearing motions at the solar surface and the second is a stealth eruption. We analyze the parameter range that allows the stealth CME to occur, which will lead to a better understanding of its triggering mechanism and improve the forecasting of the geomagnetic impact of stealth eruptions.
9	Magnetic observatory data products for space weather operations	Clarke, E et al.	p-Poster
	Ellen Clarke[1], Gemma Richardson[1], Alan Thomson[1], Orsi Baillie[1], Sarah Reay[1], Thomas Humphries[1], John Williamson[1] and Laurence Billingham[2]
	[1]British Geological Survey; [2]Formerly of British Geological Survey
	Continuous monitoring of geomagnetic activity levels and reliable real-time dissemination of the information 24/7 is required to help ensure the UK government fulfil their obligations associated with the space weather national risk register entry. BGS, as a long-term operator of magnetic observatories carries out this role and provides advice on geomagnetic hazard on a daily basis. This includes human-derived predictions of geomagnetic activity levels for up to three days ahead made on a daily basis, as well as more continuous computer-based predictions of 3-hourly and daily activity indices. These local and global activity forecasts and the associated nowcasts, whether they are of well-established indices or other purpose-built parameters, all rely on good quality, accurate and reliable real-time observatory data as the primary essential ingredient for derivation. Near real-time processing of data from the BGS observatories are supplemented by data from other INTERMAGNET standard observatories for the derivation of global parameters. This poster includes a summary of past and current work and highlights the scientific development behind some of these operations, including the search for the most suitable parameter and cadence of that parameter for monitoring geomagnetically induced currents for the power industry. Evaluation of the human forecasts and early attempts to use machine learning prediction algorithms are presented, with some thought given to how they can be incorporated into existing operations.
10	Starting operative Space Weather activities in Argentina	Lanabere, V et al.	p-Poster
	V. Lanabere[1], S. Dasso[1,2,3], A. M. Gulisano[2,3,4] and V. E. Lopez[1,5]
	[1]Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos; [2]CONICET, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio; [3]Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Fisica; [4]Instituto Antartico Argentino, DNA, Buenos Aires, Argentina; [5]Servicio Meteorologico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina
	For many years Argentina is developing a large amount of different research activities, with a significant participation in the international scientific community in Space Physics and Sun-Earth connection. Recently, at the beginning of the year 2016, Argentina also started activities on Operative Space Weather. These activities were carried out by three institutions: Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos at Universidad de Buenos Aires (DCAO-UBA), Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN), and Instituto Antartico Argentino. Since 2014 these institutions also participated in a programme of courses on Operative Space Weather. We present here a summary of the activities on operative Space Weather developed in Argentina. In 2015 Argentina developed its first Argentine operative Space Weather website (spaceweather.at.fcen.uba.ar), offering information about the current conditions of the energetic proton flux arriving at the terrestrial environment, online information about the flux of radiation at two X-rays bands near Earth (GOES), and also information of the Kp index. A forecasting service of Space Weather is also provided. Finally, since 2016, we started a daily monitoring of real-time information on the conditions in Space Weather, in particular, the conditions of the Sun, the interplanetary medium, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. The information is analyzed by each participant and discussed later during monthly meetings (briefings). A final weekly report is done as a resume of the space weather activity. The aim of this work is to present the initiative of the operative Space Weather activities in Argentina.
11	TBC: Approaches taken by P2-SWE-II project to design services for operational forecasters	Wright, R et al.	p-Poster
	Reuben Wright[1], others TBC from DH Consultancy, Met Office, Insitute of Space Science
	[1]Deimos Space UK Ltd; others TBC from DH Consultancy, Met Office, Insitute of Space Science
	TBC - we've only just received confirmation that this would be a suitable talk so only some details available - I've described the project below but note that David Jackson at Met Office knows this ESA project and can probably advise and make this compatible with other similar talks. I would very much like to discuss the session in more detail so that we (as a project) can tailor our talk to the session goals. Also, please note this is an active project and by November much more work will have been done and we hope to have feedback from users. I suspect this could be of interest to the session participants. The European Space Agency's P2-SWE-II project has the remit of extending the range of Space Weather Services (SWE) hosted via the dedicated SWE portal (swe.ssa.esa.int). The project is aimed at providing enhanced SWE services to four main categories of industrial users, namely to those involved in Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST), Spacecraft Operations, Collision Warning Systems and Re-entry Risk Assessment activities, and is implemented by a consortium led by Deimos Space UK. The consortium consists of Deimos Space UK, the British Meteorological Office, D H Consultancy and the Institute of Space Science, and benefits from expert support from GFZ-Potsdam, the British Geological Survey, the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), and the University of Orléans. The project focus is on the updating/improving of existing solar and geomagnetic activity indices historical data archives (e.g. for the Kp/Ap/ap geomagnetic activity indices, for the F10.7 and F30 solar activity indices, etc.), on the provision of enhanced accuracy nowcast and forecast data for the said indices, and on the implementation of an improved thermospheric model for the estimation of drag effects on spacecrafts and space objects in LEO. The project implementation relies heavily on user input and on user feedback, and so multiple workshops were organized for the project consortium to be able to assess the user needs in a realistic manner. Additionally, the services implemented during the project will benefit from user feedback to help in assessing their performance. This user consultation guided the consortium in terms of what technologies to use to access and format the information, and the core needs in terms of both data and metadata to be stored and delivered to users on request. DH Consultancy was in charge of a review of existing index archives. Based on this and the user requirements collected from expert consultations, an extended archive service will be developed and implemented to support the operational forecasting services. The Institute of Space Science was in charge of a review of existing nowcasting/forecasting services for the solar and geomagnetic activity indices. Based on the requirements and inputs of the users in the categories mentioned above, and with the expert support of GFZ-Potsdam and BGS, the Institute of Space Science will implement updated nowcasting/forecasting services for these indices. The Met Office performed a review of thermospheric forecast models and will use this, together with the findings from a user requirements workshop, to design and implement a prototype thermospheric forecast service. This service shall use nowcast and forecast indices produced by other parts of the project to produce thermospheric neutral density forecasts in near real time over a range of forecast lengths. A provisional service is developed and will be presented to users for further feedback. [As I said above, this will have happened before November]
12	From kinetic models to predictive tools : solar wind and plasmasphere models	Pierrard, V et al.	p-Poster
	Viviane Pierrard[1]
	[1]Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy
	Kinetic models have been developed to better understand the physical mechanisms implicated in the acceleration of particles escaping from stellar and planetary atmospheres. They have been adapted to study the solar wind, the solar corona, the terrestrial ionosphere and plasmasheet, the polar wind of the Earth and of other planets like Jupiter and Saturn, the terrestrial auroral regions, the plasmasphere and the radiation belts. The models can include Coulomb collisions and wave-particle interactions, but simpler purely exospheric models give already good results for predictions due to faster calculations and reduced numbers of unknown input parameters. We illustrate the results obtained with the models and their comparisons with observations, especially for the solar wind model and the terrestrial plasmasphere. The models can be run for forecasting on the Space Weather Portal, on CCMC and soon on Space Situational Awareness.
13	Defining geomagnetic disturbance scale thresholds through statistics	Palacios, J et al.	p-Poster
	J. Palacios, A. Guerrero, C. Cid, E. Saiz, and Y. Cerrato
	Space Weather Group, Departamento de Física y Matemáticas, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Spain
	In this communication we present a rationale for defining geomagnetic disturbance levels, since the most used scale thresholds are frequently set ad-hoc. Here we utilize a new geomagnetic regional high-resolution index called LDIñ (patent pending) and explain the relevance of its characteristics. Then we define threshold scaling for different degrees of severity of geomagnetic storms based on statistical functions. The prospects of this method are wide, since it can be applied to any other geomagnetic index.
14	SWERTO: an operational regional Space Weather service	Berrilli, F et al.	p-Poster
	Francesco Berrilli[1,2,3], Marco Casolino[2], Dario Del Moro[1], Roberta Forte[1], Luca Giovannelli[1], Matteo Martucci[2], Matteo Mergè[2], Livio Narici[1,2], Giuseppe Pucacco[1], Alessandro Rizzo[1], Stefano Scardigli[1], Roberta Sparvoli[1,2]
	[1]Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Roma Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy; [2]INFN (National Institute of Nuclear Physics) – Sezione Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy; [3]INAF(National Institute for Astrophysics) associate, Rome, Italy
	SWERTO service, located at Physics Department of UTOV (University of Rome Tor Vergata, Italy), is an operational Space Weather service mainly based on data obtained from satellite-borne (e.g., PAMELA, ALTEA) and ground-based (e.g., IBIS, MOTH II) instruments in which UTOV Space Weather team is involved. The service (www.spaceweather.roma2.infn.it) will allow the registered user to access scientific data from instrumentation available to the Physics Department researchers through national and international collaborations. It will provide fluent software for the selection and visualization of such data and results from a prototype forecasting code for CME, SEP, and flare. The service is designed and realized to promote the access to technical and scientific information from the industries which employ technologies vulnerable to Space-Weather effects. Basically, SWERTO aims to: i) design and realize a data-base with the particle fluxes recorded by the space missions: PAMELA, ALTEA, Alteino, SilEye, NINA, and with the spectro-polarimetric measurement of the solar photosphere from the IBIS instrument and MOTH II multi-height observations; ii) allow an “Open Access” to the data-base and to prototype forecast to regional industries involved and exposed to Space-Weather effects; iii) implement a tutorial and a FAQ section to help decision makers to realize and evaluate the risks from Space-Weather events; iv) dissemination and Outreach. SWERTO has been financed by the “Regione Lazio FILAS-RU-2014-1028” grant for the period November 2015 – October 2017.
15	Forecasting solar wind parameters at L1: Development of AWSOM/SWIFT	Arber, T et al.	p-Poster
	T. Arber[1], K. Bennett[1], M. Liemohn[2], B. van der Holst[2], S. N. Walker[3], M. A. Balikhin[3]
	[1]Dept Physics, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK; [2]Climate and Space Sciences Engineering, University of Michigan, Michigan, USA; [3]Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
	The majority of current forecasts of the solar wind environment at L1 are derived from various combinations of WSA, MSA, and ENLIL. These are specifically tuned to observations at L1 or 1 A.U. and well tested. They do however lack the first principles connection to coronal modelling and are sometimes limited to simplified cone models for CMEs. This talk will outline the development from a new model that combines the AWSoM corona model from the SWMF suite developed at the University of Michigan with SWIFT, a new model for the propagation of the solar wind. This coupled code set has been tested against other models, e.g. WSA-ENLIL results and the full SWMF suite from Michigan. This SWIFT code, based on AWSoM driving has been subjected to an sensitivity and uncertainty quantification analysis using the Sandia DAKOTA toolkit. Results will be presented from this analysis.
16	EUHFORIA background solar wind modeling – validation within the CCSOM project	Temmer, M et al.	p-Poster
	Jürgen Hinterreiter[1], Manuela Temmer[1], Christine Verbeke[2], Nicolas Wijsen[2], Stefaan Poedts[2], Jasmina Magdalenic[3]
	[1]Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Austria; [2]KULEUVEN, Belgium; [3]SIDC - Royal Observatory of Belgium, Belgium
	Knowledge on the background solar wind’s structuring, propagation and arrival at Earth is crucial for better understanding and forecasting the propagation of CMEs and possible geomagnetic impact of the fast solar wind. The testing and validation of the performance of solar wind models is therefore important to assess their reliability and to further improve the models. This is done for the EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) model within the CCSOM (Constraining CMEs and Shocks by Observations and Modelling throughout the inner heliosphere) project lead by ROB. To make EUHFORIA ready for scientific and operational exploitation, we validate the simulated background solar wind. For this we will use several established test methods as performed by e.g., Devos et al. (2014), Gressl et al. (2014) and Reiss et al. (2016). The methods are applied on i) continuous variables of the solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters (speed, density, temperature, Bz) in order to derive long- and short-term trends in the solar wind evolution, and ii) binary variables based on specific events such as the arrival time and impact speed of solar wind high speed streams (HSS). We will present first results showing solar wind modeling with EUHFORIA in different phases of the solar activity.
17	Validation of IPS-ENLIL for operational space weather forecasting purposes	Gonzi, S et al.	p-Poster
	Siegfried Gonzi[1], David Jackson[1], Emily Down[1], Edmund Henley[1], Marion Weinzierl[2], Anthony Yeates[2], Francois-Xavier Boquet[3], Mario Bisi[4]
	[1]Met Office, UK; [2]Durham University, UK; [3]ESA/ESOC SSA, GER; [4]Rutherford Appelton Laboratory (RAL), UK
	Prediction of the solar wind, plasma density and magnetic field at the location of the Earth requires a model that propagates the solar wind conditions from the vicinity of the Sun outward to the Earth. Operational space weather centres like the Met Office employ the ENLIL model which uses as input predictions from the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) empirical solar wind model, based on magnetograms from the GONG (Global Oscillation Network Group) telescope observations of the solar photosphere. An important aspect of solar wind forecasting is estimating which Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) may hit Earth, and when. CMEs close to the Sun can be observed with heliospheric imagers, and the inferred CME parameters can be input into ENLIL. This method, used for operational forecasting, has its limitations though. Notably, it is strongly dependent on the availability of data from the satellites that monitor the Sun – outages can and do occur.We wish to investigate an alternative method to predict the arrival of CMEs at Earth. Instead of using an empirical solar wind model at the inner boundary of ENLIL we employ IPS (Interplanetary Scintillation) derived observations of solar wind and density. In principle, such an IPS-ENLIL would be an attractive back-up to WSA-ENLIL for operational forecasting, as the ground-based IPS data do not depend on satellites. However, to truly be a back-up, IPS-ENLIL must have similar reliability to WSA-ENLIL. This work will discuss the approach which will be taken to validate IPS-ENLIL predictions, and present initial results.