Session 5 - Aviation Meets Space Weather - Roadmap Towards Space Weather Services for Aviation

Marcin Latocha (Seibersdorf Laboratories), Erwin de Donder (BIRA-IASB), Claudia Borries (DLR), Peter Beck (Seibersdorf Laboratories), Norma B. Crosby (BIRA-IASB).
Tuesday 28/11, 9:45 - 13:00
Ridderzaal


KEYWORDS - Services for aviation, space weather effects on aviation, radiation, radiation protection, avionics errors, ionospheric disturbances, aircraft communication and navigation signals

We aim at a development of a roadmap for a space weather service for aviation. We emphasize user-oriented approach intending to present user needs, practical user’s solutions for dealing with space weather effects, recommendations and legal regulations, and current trends in aviation operation due to space weather. We invite pilots, flight dispatchers, airline operators, aviation organizations, regulatory bodies, engineers and scientists to support dialog between users and service developers.

Poster Viewing
From Monday noon to Wednesday morning

Talks
Tuesday November 28, 09:45 - 11:00, Ridderzaal
Tuesday November 28, 11:45 - 13:00, Ridderzaal

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Talks : Time schedule

Tuesday November 28, 09:45 - 11:00, Ridderzaal

09:45	The real-time SEP prediction tools within the framework of the ‘HESPERIA’ HORIZON 2020 project	Malandraki, O et al.	Oral
	O. E. Malandraki[1], M. Nunez[2], B. Heber[3], J. Labrenz[3], A. Posner[4], N. Milas[1], G. Tsiropoula[1], E. Pavlos[1]
	[1]IAASARS, National Observatory of Athens, 15236, Penteli, Greece; [2]Universidad de Malaga, Spain; [3]IEAP, Christian-Albrechts-Universitaet, Kiel, Germany; [4]Heliophysics, NASA Headquarters, Washington DC, USA
	In this study, we describe the two real-time prediction tools, that have been developed in the framework of the HESPERIA project based upon the proven concepts UMASEP and REleASE, are an asset for Civil Aviation as they provide real-time forecasting of high-energy SEPs relevant to the recorded radiation dose enhancements present at high-latitude flights (polar regions, transantlantic routes). Near-relativistic (NR) electrons (1 MeV electrons have 0.95c) traveling faster than ions (30 MeV protons have 0.25c) are used to forecast the arrival of protons of Solar energetic Particle (SEP) events with real-time measurements of NR electrons. The faster electrons arrive at L1 30 to 90 minutes before the slower protons. The Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE) forecasting scheme (Posner, 2007) uses this effect to predict the proton flux by utilizing the actual electron flux and the increase of the electron flux in the last 60 minutes. In the framework of the HESPERIA project, a clone of the REleASE system was built in the open source programming language PYTHON. The same forecasting principle with use of the same forecasting matrices were in addition adapted to real-time electron flux measurements from ACE/EPAM experiment. It is shown, that the HESPERIA REleASE forecasting scheme can be adapted to work with any near relativistic electron flux measurements. >500 MeV solar protons are so energetic that they usually have effects on the ground, producing what is called a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) event. Within the HESPERIA project a predictor of >500 SEP proton events at the near-earth (e.g. at geostationary orbit) has been developed. In order to predict these events, the UMASEP scheme (Núñez, 2011, 2015) has been used. UMASEP makes a lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic (EM) flux with the particle flux at near-earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then the UMASEP scheme issues a SEP prediction. In the case of the prediction of >500 MeV SEP events, the implemented system, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, correlates X-ray flux with each of the differential proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellites, and with each of the neutron density fluxes collected by neutron monitor stations around the world. When the correlation estimation surpasses a threshold, and the associated flare is greater than a specific X-ray peak flux, a >500 MeV SEP forecast is issued. Both forecasting tools are operational under the HESPERIA server maintained at the National Observatory of Athens (https://www.hesperia.astro.noa.gr/). This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324 (HESPERIA project.
10:00	Application of neutron monitor data for assessment of aircrew exposure	Mishev, A et al.	Oral
	Alexander Mishev[1], Ilya Usoskin[1,2]
	[1]Space Climate Research Unit, University of Oulu, Finland; [2]Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory (Oulu unit), University of Oulu, Finland
	One of the important topics in the field of space weather is the mitigation of the contribution of solar energetic particles on air crew and passenger exposure. For this purpose a precise information about solar energetic particle (SEP) characteristics such as spectrum and angular distribution is necessary. While the direct measurements with space-borne instruments can provide precise information of SEP characteristics, but are limited in some cases, the ground base detectors, namely the global neutron monitor network provides a continuous operation. Hence, the task to derive SEP characteristics can be achieved using neutron monitor (NM) data during a special class of SEP events – the ground level enhancements (GLEs). A precise analysis of SEP spectral and angular characteristics using NM data requires realistic modeling of propagation of those particles in the Earth's magnetosphere and atmosphere. Using a method of global NM network modeling and convenient optimization procedure, we derive the rigidity spectra and anisotropy characteristics of several major GLEs in their dynamical development throughout the events. An application of the method for sub-GLE events is also shown. Subsequently on the basis of the derived spectra and angular characteristics and previously computed yield functions we calculate the effective dose during the GLEs at typical commercial flight altitude of 35 kft. Several examples are shown. Hence, we demonstrated that the global NM network is a useful tool to mitigate an important space weather effects, namely the exposure of aircrew due to CR of galactic and solar origin.
10:20	A tool for space radiation exposure calculations for aviators	Tezari, A et al.	Oral
	Pavlos Paschalis[1], Anastasia Tezari[1,2], Maria Gerontidou[1], Helen Mavromichalaki[1]
	[1]Nuclear and Particle Physics Department. Faculty of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15784 Athens Greece; [2]Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 11527 Athens Greece
	Space radiation exposure may place aviation crews at significant risk for numerous biological effects resulting either from exposure to radiation from a highly energetic solar particle event (SPE) or due to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) events. Therefore, the cascades of galactic and solar secondary particles are of great importance for the study of the radiation exposure. DYASTIMA (Dynamic Atmospheric Shower Tracking Interactive Model Application) is a software tool, based on GEANT4, which simulates the cosmic ray propagation through the atmosphere providing all the necessary information about the number, the energy, the direction and the arrival time of the secondary particles at different atmospheric layers. DYASTIMA-R, as an extension of DYASTIMA, calculates the dose rate and the equivalent dose rate due to all the secondary particles of the cascade, based on the output of DYASTIMA, while it takes into account the phases of solar activity as well as the aircraft geometry and shielding materials. Consequently, it can be of great interest for aircrews, passengers and civil aviation legislators.
10:40	Improving nowcast and forecast of radiation effects due to Solar Energetic Particles – a roadmap for developments.	Latocha, M et al.	Oral
	Marcin Latocha[1], Rolf Bütikofer[2], Peter Beck[1]
	[1]Seibersdorf Laboratories; [2]High Altitude Research Stations Jungfraujoch and Gornergrat, International Foundation
	The radiation environment at aviation altitudes is affected mainly by galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) although the sporadic solar cosmic radiation (SCR) events cannot be neglected. These rare but intensive solar energetic particle (SEP) events may lead to short-term enhanced radiation levels in the Earth’s atmosphere or even at the ground (Ground Level Enhancement – GLE). Nowcasting and forecasting of radiation effects on-board aircrafts are of great importance for airlines and the aviation industry from the point of view of radiation protection and for diminishing potential risks like loss of communication or navigation signals, or avionics’ errors. Seibersdorf Laboratories together with High Altitude Research Stations Jungfraujoch & Gornergrat is organizing an expert workshop in September 2017 to discuss nowcast of radiation effects on aviation, forecast of Solar Energetic Particle radiation effects, innovative developments and future needs. The workshop aims at common discussions to reveal deficiency of knowledge, missing measured data and limitations of models in order to improve nowcast of radiation effects due to SEP and enable/improve its forecast in future. We will report about the outcome of this workshop. Specifically, we intend to present common approaches for nowcast of radiation effects on aviation and their limitations, current solutions for forecast of radiation effects due to SEP events, and a roadmap for developments and future needs.

Tuesday November 28, 11:45 - 13:00, Ridderzaal

11:45	The impact of space weather on aviation sector in South Africa	Nndanganeni, R et al.	Oral
	Rendani Nndanganeni[1], Mpho Tshisaphungo[2]
	[1]SANSA Space Science, Hermanus, South Africa, 7200; [2]Department of Physics and Electronics, Rhodes University , Grahamstown, 6140, South Africa
	Aviation sector is susceptible to space weather in the four key areas, communications, navigation, aircraft avionics and radiation exposure. Aviation is a safety cautious industry and as such, operational integrity must be maintained at all time. During adverse space weather communications and navigation can be interrupted and this can become problematic. South African aviation sector like the rest of the globe is not immune to space weather and as such investigating these impacts on aviation operation in this region is also essential. Space weather refers to conditions on the Sun, in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space borne and ground‐based technological systems. Space-based position and navigation enables position determination for all phases of flight from departure, en-route and arrival. Solar storms, which alter the state of the ionosphere, can results in HF communication and navigation problems. The loss or degradation of HF and navigation is an area of vulnerability in South Africa and these effects must be investigated to develop the capabilities and forecasting tools. The South African National Space Agency (SANSA) operates a Regional Warning Centre for space weather over Africa and as such has developed regional expertise in the impact of space weather and is in a position to create awareness of space weather information requirements within the national aviation sector.
12:00	Working on space-wx for the pilots' association: Lessons learned	Sievers, K et al.	Oral
	Klaus Sievers
	ECA, European Cockpit Association
	There are certainly people who have worked on space-wx and aviation much longer than I have: I only began 2012 – not counting attempts early in my career to roughly estimate the amount of radiation. Where are we today ? Space-Wx has an influence on aviation: myth or reality ? Is it, perhaps, dangerous ? If it can be, when, under which circumstances ? Are measurements or forecasts available ? The questions are to be answered from a pilots´ point of view, considering the other people and also institutions involved in making flight a reality. What´s the role of the European institutions, the national authorities ? How far has space-weather made it into the consensus-ruled world of ICAO ? A dose of reality: space-weather impacts and effects in aviation. Experienced and possible impacts. The presentation is a contribution to furthering understanding of these issues.
12:20	"Reasonably achievable" - first action plans for ALARA	Eberbach, T et al.	Oral
	Theresia Eberbach
	German Airline Pilots Association (Vereinigung Cockpit - VC)
	ALARA - as low as reasonably achievable - is a basic principle in putting radiation protection measures to work in an economic environment, its main goal being to minimize radiation exposure while keeping economic aspects in sight. Since radiation protection made its way into aviation regulations early this millennium, a lot has happened. In the beginning, it was merely a question of „how to best avoid action and acknowledgement“ as operators feared heavyweight shielding of aircraft, bulky dosimetry equipment or - at best - significant increases in fuel consumption by flying tens of thousands of feet lower to avoid exposure. Today we see an ever increasing number in received dose among air crew - but we also experience a move in a new direction. Be it the LWS SafeSky roadmap or the EURADOS WG11 action plan: Stakeholders from all over the world and all parts of the business gather and set up plans to tackle this complex but not insurmountable task. At the same time, new dosimetry equipment, models, procedures and training objectives for dispatchers are only a few of the many tools pushing radiation protection and economic efficiency to a future merge.
12:40	European Aviation Safety Agency, role with regard to Space Weather and aviation	Tyson, C et al.	Invited Oral
	Chris Tyson
	European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)
	The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) seeks to share, from an oversight perspective, its role relating to the implementation of Space Weather information services for aviation. The session will provide attendees with an overview of EASA’s involvement to-date with regard to Space Weather, and EASA’s recent and current coordination activities with regulatory and industry representatives. Recognising the proposed implementation of Space Weather Centres by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the talk will give an overview of EASA’s anticipated Rule Making Process in relation to this increasingly relevant and important subject.

Posters

1	The multi-usage of cosmic ray data to Space Weather services	Gerontidou, M et al.	p-Poster
	H. Mavromichalaki, M. Gerontidou, P. Paschalis, E. Paouris, A. Tezari
	Faculty of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens Greece
	The ground-based real-time data of the neutron monitors network apart from their usage to fundamental research on solar modulation and interplanetary magnetic field, provide an important information relevant to space weather monitoring and forecasting. In the frame of the extension of the use of neutron monitor data beyond their real time provision in the implementation of several space weather applications Athens Neutron Monitor Station (A.Ne.Mo.S) has developed several research applications. More specific, an optimized automated Ground Level Enhancement Alert (GLE Alert Plus) which provides an accurate Alert for the onset of a GLE and a web interface, providing data from multiple Neutron Monitor stations (Multi-Station tool) are currently federated products in European Space Agency (ESA) available via the Space Weather Portal operated by ESA (http://swe.ssa.esa.int). Additionally, a simulation model, named Dynamic Atmospheric Shower Tracking Interactive Model Application (DYASTIMA), which allows the study of the cosmic ray showers resulted when primary cosmic ray particles enters the atmosphere, has been developed and its extended application named DYASTIMA-R is under development. DYASTIMA-R will provide calculations of the radiation dose received by aircrews and passengers within the Earth's atmosphere. Furthermore, a new model (Effective Acceleration Model) obtained from an extensive study of ICMEs during the last years, is used for the estimation of the arrival time of the ICMEs shock necessary for the daily geomagnetic activity report issued by the Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center. In our days all above developed services are in essential importance for Space Weather applications as Aviation is.
2	Overview of the role of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)	Tyson, C et al.	p-Poster
	Chris Tyson
	European Aviation Safety Agency
	A simple overview of the role of the European Aviation Safety Agency
3	ESA Space Situational Awareness Space Weather Service Network: Services to Airlines	De donder, E et al.	p-Poster
	Erwin De Donder[1], Norma Crosby[1], Claudia Borries[2], Alexi Glover[3]
	[1]Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy; [2]Institute of Communications and Navigation - German Aerospace Center; [3]SSA Programme Office - ESOC
	In the frame of its Space Situational Awareness (SSA) programme, the European Space Agency (ESA) is establishing a Space Weather Service Network (http://swe.ssa.esa.int/) to support end-users, in a wide range of affected sectors, in mitigating the effects of space weather on their systems, reducing costs and improving reliability. In this poster we present the "Non-Space Systems Operations – Service to airlines" which aims at providing access to global information, data, models and tools addressing particle radiation, communication and navigation issues to help pilots and airline dispatchers in flight planning, during enhanced space weather activity.