Session 6 - Space Weather Policy, Key Drivers, and Prime Opportunities

Mike Hapgood (RAL Space); Terry Onsager (NOAA), Edward Oughton (Judge Business School, Cambridge); Hermann Opgenoorth (IRF/MSB), Catherine Burnett (Met Office); Mario M. Bisi (RAL Space); Jean Lilensten (Grenoble)
Tuesday 28/11, 9:45 - 13:00
Mercator


KEYWORDS - Space weather policy development, economic impact, political engagement

Policy-makers around the world are now exploring how much investment governments should commit to space weather, but are also influenced by different national approaches to research. Progress in reducing space weather risks requires synergy between these economic and cultural aspects. We will promote strategic thinking in which scientists, engineers, economists and policy-makers collaborate to identify the appropriate investments in basic and applied science, and in infrastructure resilience.

Talks
Tuesday November 28, 09:45 - 11:00, Mercator
Tuesday November 28, 11:45 - 13:00, Mercator

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Talks : Time schedule

Tuesday November 28, 09:45 - 11:00, Mercator

09:45	An Operational Scheme for Establishing a National Space Weather Infrastructure	Messerotti, M et al.	Invited Oral
	Mauro Messerotti[1,2]
	[1]INAF-Astronomical Observatory of Trieste, Italy; [2]Department of Physics, University of Trieste, Italy
	Successfully establishing a national Space Weather infrastructure requires an operational scheme derived from a series of requirements, that represent a balance among: - science and operation goals as defined by scientists, forecasters and end-users; - available resources in terms of science and operation expertise and facilities; - available observational and computing resources; - the available budget; - the organisation at institutional and governmental level. In this work, we will describe a possible operational scheme that takes into account the above factors by focusing on each of them to point out potential gaps and pitfalls that can be of intrinsic or extrinsic origins. For instance, in the framework of monitoring, the availability of near-real-time data from space- and ground-based assets is a must, as well as a full observing coverage in time-space-energy domain, but in practice this ideal situation is never met, and, in any case, it cannot be managed by just a nation, due to its complexity and high costs. Hence, a worldwide collaborative approach is the only viable solution. As an example, we will briefly analyse the Italian scenario and present the advances carried out to date towards a national Space Weather infrastructure.
10:05	Solar Storms – A risk perspective from the insurance industry	Eichner, J et al.	Invited Oral
	Eichner Jan
	Munich Re, Geo Risks
	Solar storms and in particular solar storm ground effects are not an apparent part of every-day insurance business. However, they pose a substantial threat to economic sectors as well as to society in general, which in many cases is not perceived as such due to the infrequence of major (geo-effective and loss-relevant) events. The presentation recapitulates documented historic events from a loss perspective, looks at various potential (future) impact scenarios, and raises questions of technological and societal vulnerability. Parts of the risks from solar storm ground effects are covered by the insurance industry. However, the amount of insured risk is clearly limited and it is up to society to cope with the residual risk (just as it is with any other natural catastrophe). Successful initiatives in the field of solar storm resilience, both political and industrial, will help to decrease vulnerability through technological mitigation efforts and by this increase insurability as well as substantially decrease the residual risk.
10:25	Space weather event impacts on South African technology	Nndanganeni, R et al.	Invited Oral
	Rendani Nndanganeni, Lee-Anne McKinnell, Mpho Tshisaphungo and Michael Kosch
	South African National Space Agency (SANSA), P O Box 32, Hermanus 7200, South Africa,
	The South African National Space Agency (SANSA) operates the Regional Warning Center (RWC) for Space Weather in Africa. The RWC is operated from Hermanus, South Africa. The centre depends on ground based geophysical data from distributed networks across Southern Africa and the South Atlantic which complement available satellite based data to achieve an operational capability. Over the past 6 years SANSA has developed a regional capability to monitor and forecast space weather as well as prioritising research projects that enhance the modelling ability of the centre. SANSA has also partnered in a number of international space weather projects each of which has contributed towards enhancing the knowledge and expertise needed to provide these services. Recently SANSA has published two policy briefs, with the aim to create awareness amongst South African policy and decision makers. These policy briefs are aimed at guiding South Africa towards being in a position to identify, assess and facilitate decision making with respect to space weather impacts on critical insfrastructure in general and therefore to appropriately recognize, understand and develop the required capability in order to ensure adequate preparedness. SANSA is in a position to work together with all the affected sectors, and government, to make provision for a space weather capability that addresses the nation’s requirements, and leads the country towards mitigation measures against this risk. This paper will discuss the significance of engaging, training, and creating awareness across the country to educate the affected industries. In addition, the development of space weather road map for South Africa will be discussed, detailing the impacts of concern and possible mitigation measures, as well as the need to quantify the technical impact of space weather in a variety of industries (energy, defence, aviation, etc.). The current role that SANSA plays includes ensuring that the affected industries are well –informed about the effects of adverse space weather and that the right capability is developed for their needs. The importance and benefit of relationships with industry players within South Africa, the lessons learnt and the way forward in utilising this capability to protect the nation’s technology will be presented.
10:45	Space weather engagement links with societal and economic risks	Stanislawska, I et al.	Oral
	Iwona Stanislawska, Zbigniew Klos
	Space Research Centre of the Polish Academ of Sciences, 00-716 Warsaw, Bartycka 18a, Poland
	Space weather questions are key issues of many programs. Their role as SSA element is especially important. However great effort has to be done yet to identify the nature of demand for SW information and to define the range of market requirements. The magnitude of these impacts determines the commercial and strategic drivers of any initiatives related to national infrastructure that SWE services address like: • Ionospheric models incorporated scintillation to help evaluate the performance of GNSS equipment against signal degradation, • Evaluation of ionospheric impact on satellite position and radar-cross-section errors, • Ionospheric influence on Satellite signals intelligence geolocation error, • Implementation of low frequency LOFAR Radio Telescope for regular ionospheric sounding. The supply chain of SW data is dominated by a few large data providers who are not involved in market activity. Thus, currently, space weather data requirements are primarily being defined by the scientific community, which is a parts of the customer base. Other players on the market are the space weather data and service providers, with a variety of scientific and industrial customers. The separation of these roles is the crucial point of the definition of more effective supply chain of space weather products and services. Another important target is segmentation of the potential market. According to general opinion the space weather offer is overloaded by raw data. These data for many potential end users are the spume rather than selected services for ionospheric operational modeling, telecommunication, research programs, power-line distribution system. Thus, it has to be performed the space weather market analysis considering the questions of structure of the supply chain and market segmentation. The focus on space weather product characteristics in „Seven Rights” business logistics architecture of products distribution are important points of this effort.

Tuesday November 28, 11:45 - 13:00, Mercator

11:45	UK Government preparation for a severe space weather storm	Stalle, C et al.	Invited Oral
	Claudia Lally
	UK Government Office for Science
	Space weather was included in the UK Government’s National Risk Assessment back in 2011. Since that time, numerous government departments and agencies have been putting plans in place to respond to a space weather event, and factoring in the space weather risk as part of our wider resilience thinking. We know there’s a severe solar storm coming sometime. Meanwhile, planning, exercising and improving general awareness are good ways to improve our readiness to withstand it.
12:05	Towards Enhanced Space Weather Preparedness: U.S. Space Weather Policies	Jonas, S et al.	Invited Oral
	Seth Jonas[1], William Murtagh[2]
	[1]IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute; [2]NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
	In 2015 and 2016, the United States released the National Space Weather Strategy, Action Plan, and Executive order No. 13744. These documents, along with other relevant policies, seek to enhance preparedness for space weather events by coordinating and prioritizing activities of U.S. executive departments and agencies. This talk will review the formulation and content of these policies; and how implementation has increased research activities, operational activities, national preparedness, public awareness, and international engagement on space weather.
12:25	Panel Discussion	Willems, S et al.	Oral
	Mike Hapgood

Posters