Topical Discussion Meeting - Recent and Future Radiation Environment Specification Modelling

Piers Jiggens (European Space Research And Technology Centre); Ingmar Sandberg (SPARC); Paul O'Brien (Aerospace Corporation); Eamonn Daly (ESA)
Tuesday 28/11, 17:15 - 18:30, Mercator

In recent years there has been a significant increase in the modelling activities taking place to specify the three primary particle radiation environments, namely the Earth's Radiation Belts (RBs), Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs). Different modelling approaches have been applied to different particle, energy and spatial domains with the result of a heterogeneous set of standard models applied in many environment specifications.

In the RB area the AE9/AP9/SPM development aims to unify the modelling approach for this radiation environment, furthermore for the first time it establishes a true confidence level-driven approach to modelling this environment in a way similar to that of established SEP models. However, the ambition of such an effort has thrown up some issues which are being addressed with new releases of the model. In the future this model shall evolve into the IRENE (International Radiation Environment Near Earth) model. In addition, new activities in the SEP and GCR areas making use of different data sets (such as data from Neutron Monitors versus space-based measurements) and dependencies on solar cycle variation present complications in deriving reasonable radiation environment specifications through the combinations of RB, SEP and GCR models. There is a sense in the community that specifications might be excessively conservative which is resulting in a over-design of satellites.

It is intended to discuss the future development strategies for radiation environment specification models combining particle radiation from all three sources, the treatment of confidence levels and model uncertainties. There are many specific (or local) models which might be used as inspiration for updates of global models or used as part of validation exercises. Interested parties are welcome to present ideas in short (5- to 10-minute slots) in order to trigger discussions. The goal is to collate present and future developments and begin to establish methods and mechanisms for collaboration and standardisation. A future radiation modelling workshop shall also be discussed.