Topical Discussion Meeting - CME arrival time and impact: working team

Christine Verbeke (KU Leuven); M. Leila Mays (NASA GSFC); Aleksandre Taktakishvili (CUA)
Wednesday 7/11, 14:00-15:15
MTC 01.03

To be able to forecast geomagnetic activity with long lead-time forecasts, accurate prediction of solar wind conditions at L1 are necessary. The arrival time of high speed streams and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) at L1 is critical for users as well as CME peak velocity at arrival. When the community wants to validate different models, it is important that appropriate metrics are agreed upon and established in consultation with both science and user experts.

During this topical discussion meeting, we will focus on mainly CME arrival time and impact parameters. We will start with a short overview of the efforts of the CME arrival time and impact working team form the “International Forum of Space Weather Capabilities Assessment”, facilitated by the CCMC. Then we will open up the room for discussion items that are relevant to this working team where we want to focus on both science and user experts: How can we quantify the influence of the solar background wind model on the CME arrival time? Which metrics do we want to use to quantify the impact of CME arrival? Is there a way to propagate the errors of the model input parameters and model settings into the model outputs? What visualisation diagrams can we use to better interpret the metrics and validation of models? These and more questions will be discussed during this topical discussion meeting.

REPORT