Topical Discussion Meeting - Validation: SEP Working Team and Scoreboard

M. Leila Mays (NASA GSFC), Mark Dierckxsens (BIRA-IASB), Mike Marsh (UK Met Office), Ian Richardson (UMD/NASA GSFC)
Monday 5/11, 17:15-18:30
MTC 00.15, Small lecture room

There are now over 20 physics-based or empirical solar energetic particle (SEP) models developed by the community--but how well do these models predict SEP events throughout the heliosphere? In the literature, most physics-based models focus on event studies, while empirical models take a statistical approach to build and validate their models. The SEP Working Team was established with the goals to:
(1) Evaluate how well different models/techniques can predict historical SEP events throughout the heliosphere;
(2) Establish community metrics; and
(3) Provide a benchmark against which future models/model updates can be assessed against.


Related to this working team, the SEP "Scoreboard" was established to allow a consistent real-time comparison of various operational and research forecasts. The purpose of this TDM is to discuss the following:
* Status of the SEP Working Team and Scoreboard
* Potential performance benchmarks for physics-based models in a systematic, controlled way and for much longer time periods.
* How well do the models predict SEP events throughout the heliosphere and what are the challenges?
* Results from the SHINE session on two community campaign events.


Modelers who were not involved in that session are still welcome to participate in this one. We invite you to model (physics-based or empirical) the two case study events and consider: How did your optimized run results differ from the initial run? What aspects of the event does your model capture well, and what aspects were more difficult to capture? What are the next steps for your modeling technique?

Community campaign events:
1) 10 September 2017 (GLE 72) SEP event start dates and other optional events in this period: Earth: 4, 6, 10 September STEREO A: 4, 11, 18 September Mars: 10 September
2) 23 July 2017 SEP event start dates and other optional events in this period: Earth: 14 July STEREO A: 23 July


https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/helio-sep.php
http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/sep.php

REPORT