Space missions in Low Earth Orbits (LEO) like the International Space Station (ISS) already suffer from space weather effects. Operations outside the space station have to be planned carefully in order to prevent high exposures due to changes in the radiation field caused by Solar Particle Events (SPEs). Even inside the ISS exposure levels may be heightened during such events. Common to these missions in LEO is the protection by the geomagnetic field which reduces the radiation exposure by the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and essentially eliminates the threat posed by the stochastically occurring SPEs. This is no longer the case for interplanetary missions. Radiation exposures in interplanetary space differ quite significant from that in LEO. There is a short exposure by radiation belt particles during crossing of the radiation belts followed by a more intense GCR irradiation and occasionally an unweakened exposure by solar particles during SEPs. Until now the forecasting capability of SPEs is very limited. Only approximate dose values from model calculation are availabe for different mission scenarios. There is a lack of physical measurements to benchmark the codes, although most recently measurements become available from missions to Moon and Mars, such as from Chandrayaan-1, the NASA LRO and MSL mission.

Shielding is the main countermeasure against the exposure to radiation cosmic radiation during interplanetary missions, although it does not help much against exposure to GCR. Moreover, with increasing shielding thickness the exposure increases due to secondary radiation as result of the interaction of the high-energy charged particles with the atoms of the shielding material. But, for solar particles the shielding is quite effective, so that exposures can be mitigated to reasonable values or even prevented.

Space radiation causes effects on crew health, performance, and, finally, life expectancy and potentially limits the duration of human’s presence in space. Radiation effects are classified in early and late effects. Late effects materialize years to even decades after exposure, early effects can arise within hours and may extend to several weeks. At extreme doses the effects can appear within minutes after exposure. Mission design has to prevent a foreseeable worst case exposure to surpass the thresholds where symptoms for early, deterministic radiation health effects are to be expected. In interplanetary missions, acute doses can only be expected to be deposited during SPEs.

The main late effect in humans is carcinogenesis, more specifically, mortality from late radiation induced cancers. Cancer arises from both acute exposures during SPEs and low but chronic exposures by GCR. Late cancer mortality is the reference risk utilized in radiation protection to derive limits of exposure which might be considered acceptable. For interplanetary missions damage to the central nervous system (CNS) gain in importance. Most of the uncertainty in risk estimates is related to the radiation quality of heavy ions and to tissue degenerative effects, which are unique to heavy ion exposure. Until today, cataracts are the only cosmic radiation-induced effect actually observed in astronauts.

For ISS operations maximum allowable radiation exposures are set by NASA, that the radiation risk is limited to 3% excess risk of exposure induced death (REID) including a 95% confidence level. For explorative missions there are no exposure limits defined, but the radiation risks are by far higher compared to that in ISS operation.

The history of modern investigations of space weather influences on human health begin from Alexander Tchijevsky in Russia and M.Faure and G.Sardou in France (1927).
At the last two decades there were conducted several extensive studies that revealed dependence of cardiovascular pathologies from space weather events. The analyzing data collected by the Moscow ambulance services covering more then one million observations over three years, cleaned up by seasonal effects of meteorological and social causes, show that the number of cases of myocardial infarction increased during geomagnetic storms (Breus et al., 1995). Great contribution have made by Stupel et al., (1999) who studied geomagnetic activity and cosmic rays influence on different kind of human pathology. Our investigation during 14 years started at 1992 included more than 25000 cases of acute myocardial infarction and brain stroke collected at seven medical hospitals. We used only cases with established date of acute attack of diseases. Undated cases were excluded from the analysis. Average numbers of patients on geomagnetic active days and days with quiet geomagnetic condition were compared. It was shown statistically that during geomagnetic disturbances the frequency of myocardial infarction and brain stroke cases increased on the average by a factor of two in comparison with quiet geomagnetic conditions.
Laboratory tests as blood coagulation, platelet aggregation, and capillary blood velocity (CBV) in patients suffering from coronary heart disease (CHD) revealed a high dependence with a level of geomagnetic activity. Results of our recent study during "Mars-500" experiment has being conducted by Russian Space Agency and Russian Academy of Sciences, with extensive participation of ESA to prepare for future human missions to the Moon and Mars confirmed this conclusion. In total 58 good for reading records were analyzed. We compared CBV of each subject which measurements have coincided with days before and after beginning of geomagnetic storms (GMS).
Average values of CBV for all subjects for all period of study have made 515 ± 97 mm/s. Averages CBV values for days with quiet geomagnetic conditions have made 566 ± 217 mm/s. In active geomagnetic condition days average CBV values has registered as 389 ± 167 mm/s, that statistically significant (p<0.05) in comparison of CBV values for quiet geomagnetic conditions days. Unsettled geomagnetic condition days gave the higher values of CBV: 557 ± 202 mm/s.
We suggest that geomagnetic fluctuations acting on blood, brain, adrenals involve the adaptation system. This leads to appearance in blood adrenals hormones that responsible for activation of the clotting system, rise in aggregation and spasm in the afferent vessels of the microcirculatory network.

Absorption in the atmosphere below 500 km results in attenuation of the solar EUV flux, variation of its spectra and distortion of solar images acquired by solar EUV instruments operating on LEO satellites even on solar-synchronous orbits. Occultation measurements are important for planning of solar observations from these satellites, and can be used for monitoring of the upper atmosphere as well as for studying its response to the solar activity.
We present the results of the occultation measurements of the solar EUV radiation with the SPIRIT and TESIS telescopes onboard the CORONAS satellites, with the SWAP telescope and LYRA radiometer onboard the PROBA 2 satellite in different phases of solar activity. The results are compared with simulations by the NASA MSIS atmospheric model and can be helpful for occultation studies of atmospheres at other planets.

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement eHeroes (project n° 284461, www.eheroes.eu).

Gaps in existing radiation environment and effects standards adversely affect human spaceflight developments. In the framework of the ESA project IPRAM (Interplanetary and Planetary Radiation Model for Human Spaceflight, ESA Contract No 4000106133/12/NL/AF), we investigate the most important drivers in the domain of interplanetary and planetary radiation environments, identifying appropriate data sources and modelling methods to address the needs of future interplanetary manned mission design and operation.

New radiation estimates have been compiled for missions to the Moon, Mars, and near-Earth asteroids, combining a comprehensive set of spacecraft and neutron monitor data with statistical models. A roadmap for future developments is presented, as well as a gap analysis of environment data and models of the radiation environment and effects on humans and spacecraft components.

Detailed computer simulations of the interaction between satellites and space environment is now possible, thanks to the availability of today's computing resources, and advanced simulation algorithms. Several models have been developed over the years, and new ones continue to be created. The models used to design future missions and to interpret in situ measurements can account for realistic 3D geometry of satellites and their instruments. They can also account for many processes at play in satellite-space environment, including material properties, the effect of solar radiation, and fluxes of charged and neutral particles on satellite components. This talk will concentrate on recent developments and accomplishments made with PTetra, a 3D fully kinetic particle in cell (PIC) model to simulate satellite-space environment interaction. While initially intended for low Earth orbit (LEO) spacecraft-plasma interaction physics, PTetra has been upgraded so as to better account for processes, such as secondary electron emission and photoelectron emission, of importance for spacecraft at higher altitudes or in the interplanetary solar wind. Examples are presented of benchmarking simulations in which results are compared with measurements made on DEMETER or in well controlled laboratory experiments. PTetra is also used to assess the effect of Earth magnetic field on possible aberrations in Swarm's Electric Field Instrument (EFI). These results are contributed as part of ESA's Swarm Calibration and Validation activity. Finally, PTetra results are presented as part of a concerted model cross-comparison and validation exercise sponsored by ISSI. This comparison between several model results obtained for a simplified satellite geometry, under well defined space environment conditions, is used to assess the level of confidence in model predictions.

Space weather conditions during solar activity minima between Cycles 22/23 and 23/24 are compared. Analysis of flaring activity, solar Active Region, CME, SEP productivity and X-ray flux variability in nine-month-long temporal intervals covering the last two minima is performed. The solar space weather indicators are next compared to geomagnetic indices characterizing the state of the Earth magnetosphere. Differences in space weather shaping factors for the last but one minimum and the recent unusually deep minimum between Cycle 23 and 24 are discussed. Effects of space weather events in the two analyzed periods on space-borne observations are shown.

The propagation behavior of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary (IP) space is mainly influenced by the ambient solar wind flow. The interaction of CMEs with the solar wind, as well as with other CMEs, can be expressed as drag force and manifests itself to decelerate CMEs that are faster than the ambient solar wind, whereas slower ones are accelerated until the CME speed is finally adjusted to the solar wind speed. This directly affects how strong the impact of a CME is on space weather.

With the SECCHI instrument suite aboard STEREO, CMEs can be observed during their entire propagation way from Sun to 1AU. In combination with in-situ measurements we are able to derive the direction and speed of a CME. We compare the kinematical behavior of well observed CME events in the IP distance regime with output from ENLIL (NASA/CCMC) MHD model runs of the background solar wind speed.

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreements n°263252 [COMESEP] and n°284461 [eHEROES].

The radiation risk associated with Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) poses a serious threat to humans involved in space exploration. A number of modelling approaches have been developed to predict SEP fluxes at various locations in space.
The role of gradient and curvature drifts in cosmic ray transport within the heliosphere is a standard component of cosmic ray propagation models. However, the current paradigm of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) propagation holds the effects of drifts to be negligible, and they are not accounted for in current SEP modelling efforts.
We present full-orbit test particle simulations of SEP propagation in interplanetary space which demonstrate that drifts perpendicular to the magnetic field can be significant. Thus, in many cases the assumption of field aligned propagation of SEPs may not be valid. We discuss the variation of drift effects with particle energy, co-latitude, and heavy ion species. The effect on the flux profiles of SEP events is also discussed. This paradigm shift has important consequences for the modelling of SEP events and is crucial to the understanding and interpretation of in-situ observations.
This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events present an important threat to the operation of spacecraft, as well as being of increasing concern to aviation safety from the perspective of flight control and radiobiological effects. Assessment of the risk from SEPs may involve the use of example events considered representative of a worst-case environment, with an assumed confidence that the environment will not be exceeded (e.g. the CREME96 models are based on the October 1989 event, and 99% confidence level). Alternatively, statistical models can be used, based on an analysis of the distribution of the event characteristic (e.g. event peak flux, fluence or duration), and integrating this distribution over the mission duration together with a representation of the probability per unit time of an event occurring at time t after the last event (the time distribution). Examples of statistical models include NASA's JPL, ESP and PSYCHIC models. Whilst the results of such models have been have been used to generate environment specifications for spacecraft design, there's been limited work addressing the influence of uncertainties in the SEP reference datasets used to build the models. In an activity sponsored in part under the ESA project ESHIEM (Energetic Solar Heavy Ion Environment Models), an analysis has been undertaken to assess the efficiency of different numerical integration techniques for SEP model generation, and methods for propagating uncertainties. Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, as used for the JPL model and updates (Feynman et al, 1993; Rosenqvist et al, 2005; Glover et al, 2008) as well as aspects of ESA's SEPEM system (Jiggens, 2012), is a standard and generally applicable method for integrating the time and event characteristic distributions over the mission duration. This technique provides a solution that is easy to conceptualise and implement into an algorithm, without requiring a detailed understanding of what would otherwise be a very complex, multidimensional numerical integration. However, the MC method for creating statistical models can be much less efficient computationally than standard numerical integration, and therefore, if it is also necessary to understand the influence of uncertainties in the reference datasets on the resulting statistical models, the computational requirements can become extremely high, depending upon the time distribution employed. This paper reports on the efficiencies of current standard (analogue) Monte Carlo approaches compared with variance reduction MC techniques that may be used to improve the statistical accuracy of the influence of larger, more impacting SEP events. These results are also compared with direct (non-MC) numerical integration, which are less flexible but often give a more direct and efficient method for quantifying uncertainties, and understanding of trends with event-fitted parameters. The results are applied to processed alpha-particle data from IMP8/GME and GOES/SEM instruments to demonstrate the influence on the resultant alpha-particle SEP statistical models, and the associated uncertainties in the models.

For space weather applications, computer simulations have been extremely helpful in the analysis of detailed physical processes. Up until recently to study the effects of the global interaction between the solar wind and planetary magnetospheres the most commonly used numerical tool was MHD simulations. However, this approach is not well suited to analyze some important dissipation effects, since viscosity and resistivity are commonly described as phenomenological constants, ignoring the underlying kinetic effects. As a consequence, the physical processes responsible for important space plasma phenomena such as magnetic reconnection and diffusion are not accessible. To improve the quality of the simulations, Omidi et al. [1] showed that an hybrid description of the plasma interaction between the solar wind and dipolar magnetosphere, at a global scale, can be performed. Such complex simulations were possible thanks to the use of an hybrid code in which the electrons are treated as a fluid and the ions as particles.

Herein, we go one step further: using the implicit moment Particle-in-Cell (PIC) code iPic3D (Markidis et al. [2]) we study the interaction between the solar wind and a dipolar magnetosphere using a fully kinetic description, where both electrons and ions are treated as particles. The simulation solves the coupled system of Maxwell and particle transport equations in a two dimensional domain of tens of planet radius in both directions around the planet, using a spatial resolution of the order of a fraction of the ion skin depth. Currently the number of global PIC simulations is still very limited worldwide and mainly based on explicit numerical schemes (Cai [3]). The present work is focused on 2D simulations based on a new implicit scheme which allows to use more realistic plasma parameters and to differentiate between processes at the electron and the ion scales. The results of this 2D simulation show the formation of the general features observed in planetary magnetospheres, including, magnetosheath, magnetotail, cusps and radiation belts. We analyze the new results in order to validate the code and to emphasize the features that are not accessible using MHD simulations.

Simulations were performed using the Curie and Fermi supercomputers, made available by the PRACE allocation SWEET. This work was also possible by the financial support of the European Commission through the FP7 projects SWIFF (reference number: 263340) and eHeroes (reference number: 284461).

[1] N. Omidi, X. Blanco-Cano, C.T. Russell, H. Karimabadi, Global hybrid simulations of solar wind interaction with Mercury: Magnetosperic boundaries, Advances in Space Research, Volume 38, Issue 4, 2006

[2] Stefano Markidis, Giovanni Lapenta, Rizwan-uddin, Multi-scale simulations of plasma with iPIC3D, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, Volume 80, Issue 7, March 2010

[3] Cai, D., Visualizing Magnetic Field Topology in the Magnetotail using TRISTAN code, Proceedings of International Conference of Numerical Simulation of Plasmas 98, pp. 64-67, February, 1998

Space debris represents one of the main hazards to manned flights and satellites. The estimated number of debris particles in the near-Earth space exceeds 300,000. Besides, this number can grow manyfold through the well-known Kessler syndrome. Though the largest objects can be successfully tracked and catalogued by means of ground radar and optical observations, the detection of objects smaller than 1 cm is complicated due to their faint visibility.
We propose a novel observing strategy of space debris with the use of optical orientation sensors, which most of space missions are equipped with. We have applied this method to datasets of optical sensors, that were installed on Russian space missions Coronas-F (2001 - 2005) and Coronas-Photon (2009). As a result we were able to detect objects as small as 1 mm, which approached to satellites closer than 1 km. Furthermore, we processed about 100,000 images of optical sensors and found over 600 such objects. For several of found objects we managed to calculate their orbital elements.
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement eHeroes (project n° 284461, www.eheroes.eu).

Long before the space age began, one had realized that space was not empty. Comet tails, meteors, and other extraterrestrial phenomena demonstrated the presence of a "space environment". Also spacecraft of course are affected, or better, interact with this plasma environment and may become charged. Given that our society becomes increasingly dependent on space technology, it is therefore imperative to develop a good understanding of spacecraft-plasma interactions, in which two things are important. First, one needs to be able to design a reliable spacecraft that can survive in the harsh solar wind conditions. Second, a very good knowledge of the plasma structure around the spacecraft is required to be able to interpret and calibrate scientific measurements from the on-board instruments.
Using the implicit Particle-in-Cell code iPIC3D [1] we contribute to this second point. iPIC3D has been updated with a set of open boundary conditions designed for solar wind-body interaction studies. Particles are injected at the inflow sides of the computational domain and absorbing on all others. The immersed boundary method [2] is applied to model various spacecraft geometries including the Solar Probe Plus spacecraft (NASA, launch 2018) and the Solar Orbiter satellite (ESA, launch 2017), for which we will present our findings. The physical model takes into account both photo- and secondary electron emission at the object's surface and various other secondary particle effects, such as backscattered electrons and particle reflection, are currently in development.

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement eHeroes (project n° 284461, www.eheroes.eu).

[1] Markidis, Lapenta and Rizwan-uddin, "Multi-scale simulations of plasma with iPIC3D", Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 80 (2010): 1509-1519.

[2] Lapenta, "DEMOCRITUS: An adaptive particle in cell (PIC) code for object-plasma interactions", Journal of Computational Physics 230 (2011): 4679-4695.

Dust particles have been observed to be present in almost all space environment, such as in the ionosphere, interplanetary space and large celestial bodies. A 3D simulation code has been developed to study dusty plasma environment such as lunar surface which is known as lunar dusty exosphere. This presentation illustrates our simulation results of lunar surface charging and levitation. It explains how the electric field developed from the charging of the surface causes dust originating from around the crater to be deposited inside the crater. In addition, investigation of the dynamics of lunar dust near a simple conducting lunar exploratory vehicle for two different lunar regions has revealed that dust particles appear to engulf the rover in terminator region but move outward from the rover in the dayside region.

The generation of large-scale shock waves in the solar corona, their propagation to the interplanetary space and possibility of arrival to the Earth are major questions in the science of solar-terrestrial relationships with far-reaching consequences for space explorations. In particular, coronal and interplanetary shock waves accelerate energetic particles which can impact spacecraft. Two or more subsequent shock waves, appearing in the close time window, can have complex radio signatures, so-called multiple type II radio bursts. We present a statistical study of multiple type II radio bursts, i.e., radio signatures of two subsequent shock waves which appear in a time window of up to 40 minutes. The data set contained 590 radio events observed by the Green Bank Solar Radio Burst Spectrometer (GBSRBS) and Bruny Island Radio Spectrometer (BIRS) from 2004 to 2012. We identified 140 type II bursts, and among them 32 multiple type II pairs. For the multiple type II bursts we also used complementary observations from Culgoora and IZMIRAN observatory. In the study the characteristics of multiple type II burst pairs and associated flares and CMEs were analyzed. It was found that the delay between start time of the two type IIs peaks at 5 - 8 min. The first type II burst of the pair always starts at higher frequencies that the second type II, and the speed of the first type II is usually higher (1000 -1400 km/s) than the speed of the second one (500 - 800 km/s). Inspecting the characteristics of the solar flares associated with the multiple type II pairs it was found that more than a half of the events were associated with M-class flares. On the other hand, the multiple type II pairs were associated with flares originating from active regions of very different magnetic complexity. About 70 % of the CMEs associated with multiple type II bursts were either halos or partial halo CMEs suggesting that wide CMEs create favorable conditions for the generation of multiple type II bursts.

Space Weather conditions are a direct consequence of the energy, momentum and mass fluxes initiated by the solar wind (SW)-magnetosphere interaction. Various simulation models have been developed to enable exploration and discovery of the behavior of coupled systems as the SW-Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere (M-I-T) system. These simulations address the main question of how the geospace system responds to solar variability, to understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment from the Sun to Earth, and to develop the capability to predict extreme and dynamic conditions in space. In this connection the energy fluxes and Joule dissipation mechanisms in the M-I-T system emerge as a key factor that controls the energy deposition distribution both in height and in latitude and longitude. Ionospheric conductivity dynamical changes are thus responsible for the energy deposition rates in the M-I-T system. When the impulse momentum conservation law is applied to electric conductivity analyses of the M-I-T, the basic equations of charge motion becomes coupled even under weakly-ionized plasma conditions (Nn>>N, where Nn and N are neutral and plasma concentration densities). An estimation of the electric conductivity perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field B and parallel to the electric field EƒÎ (assuming that EƒÎ is perpendicular to B) predicts that maximum dissipation emerges basically at heights below and close to the corresponding maxima of the ionosphere plasma distributions. The obtained result differs qualitatively and even quantitatively from the expected time scales of Joule dissipation expected by conventional approaches. Characteristic times controlling the Pedersen/Hall currents dynamics in the M-I-T system are examined and introduced. These time scales should be definitely taken into account for Space Weather/Exploration purposes.

The history of modern investigations of space weather influences on human health begin from Alexander Tchijevsky in Russia and M.Faure and G.Sardou in France (1927).
At the last two decades there were conducted several extensive studies that revealed dependence of cardiovascular pathologies from space weather events. The analyzing data collected by the Moscow ambulance services covering about six hundreds thousands observations over three years, cleaned up by seasonal effects of meteorological and social causes, shows that the number of cases of myocardial infarction increased during geomagnetic storms (Breus et al., 1995). Great contribution have made by Stoupel et al., (1999) who studied geomagnetic activity and cosmic rays influence on different kind of human pathologies. Our investigation during 14 years started at 1992 and included more than 25000 cases of acute myocardial infarction and brain stroke collected at seven medical hospitals. We used only cases with established date of acute attack of diseases. Undated cases were excluded from the analysis. Average numbers of patients on geomagnetic active days and days with quiet geomagnetic condition were compared. It was shown statistically that during geomagnetic disturbances the frequency of myocardial infarction and brain stroke cases increased on the average by a factor of two in comparison with quiet geomagnetic conditions.
Laboratory tests as blood coagulation, platelet aggregation, and capillary blood velocity (CBV) in patients suffering from coronary heart disease (CHD) revealed a high dependence with the level of geomagnetic activity. Results of our recent study during "Mars-500" experiment has being conducted by Russian Space Agency and Russian Academy of Sciences, with extensive participation of ESA to prepare for future human missions to the Moon and Mars confirmed this conclusion. In total 58 good for reading records were analyzed. We compared CBV of each subject which measurements have coincided with days before and after beginning of geomagnetic storms (GMS).
Average values of CBV for all subjects for all period of study have made 515 ± 97 mm/s. Averages CBV values for days with quiet geomagnetic conditions have made 566 ± 217 mm/s. In active geomagnetic condition days average CBV values has registered as 389 ± 167 mm/s, that statistically significant (p<0.05) in comparison with CBV values for quiet geomagnetic conditions. Unsettled geomagnetic condition days gave the higher values of CBV: 557 ± 202 mm/s. We suggest that geomagnetic fluctuations acting on blood, brain, adrenals involve the adaptation system. This leads to appearance in blood adrenals hormones that responsible for activation of the clotting system, rise in aggregation and spasm in the afferent vessels of the microcirculatory network.

Remote-sensing observations of the Sun and the corona provide the earliest warning of a potential geomagnetic storm. They provide the kinematic and magneto-plasma properties of the erupting solar event near the Sun. To correctly predict the arrival time and properties of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) at 1AU, analytical/empirical results and numerical modeling are usually employed (combined) to capture the relevant physics associated with the propagation effects of the CME in the interplanetary medium. Many physical processes need to be simulated such as the effect of the magnetic tension force, of plasma and magnetic pressure gradients, drag and mass loading and the formation of shocks. For extreme events the production and presence of high-energy particles in the vicinity of the shock may also have an effect upon the arrival time and properties of the shock. We concentrate on several major CME events in 2011-2013. We determine the initial conditions of the corona and initial properties the CME by combining EUV and white-light observations from three vantage points. To do so, we use various tools developed by the CDPP at IRAP in Toulouse, in particular the recently developped 'propagation tool'. We then compare the results of several transit calculations by using the ENLIL and the analytical EFR 3-D MHD models based on the initial conditions obtained in the previous step. We evaluate the importance of simulating the background solar wind correctly for predicting the transit time of the CME and the associated shock to 1AU.

We study the properties and initiation mechanisms for CMEs without distinct coronal signatures. Though easily visible in coronagraph observations, these so-called stealth CMEs do not obviously exhibit any of the low-coronal signatures typically associated with solar eruptions (changes in magnetic configuration, flows, solar flares, the formation of post-flare loop arcades, EUV waves, or coronal dimmings). We focus on what the presence or absence of these signatures can tell us concerning the mechanisms by which these stealth CMEs are initiated and driven.

To identify these CMEs without low coronal signatures, various data sets are used. We compare CMEs from the CACTus catalog to GOES event lists and output of SoFAST (Solar Flare Automated Search Tool), based on observations from SWAP/PROBA2. Using STEREO observations, we can exclude the back-sided CMEs. We use this list to characterize the general properties of events without low coronal signatures and, from this list, select a few eruptions to study in detail using both observations and numerical models.

During the very calm year 2009 and the slightly more active year 2010 there were few Earth directed CMEs without any signatures on the solar disc. Using data from STEREO/COR and SOHO/LASCO it was possible to derive the propagation direction of these CMEs and their radial speeds. Furthermore, EUVI and COR1 data showed that these CMEs may form higher up in the corona, explaining the lack of signatures on the solar disc. The possible triggering mechanisms of these events is investigated by comparing them with the available models (magnetic breakout model, solar wind drag etc.).

The behavior of the high-speed streams in the solar wind is investigated during the period of the first four years of the 24th solar cycle (2009 - 2012). The analysis is performed taking into account their frequency of appearance and the following parameters: the durations (in days); the maximum velocities; the velocity gradients; the importance of the streams. The time variation of the high speed stream parameters and their occurrence rate is compared with the corresponding ones during the first four years of the solar cycles nos. 20 - 23. The levels of the geomagnetic variability during the same intervals are also analysed taking into account the aa geomagnetic index and the intensity of the registered geomagnetic storms.

Predicting the radiation environment is critical for any space mission and one important source of radiation is the Sun. In the specification of the solar energetic particle (SEP) environment, previous work has focussed on the 5 - 200 MeV range (Jiggens et al. 2012) as this is critical for electronics components behind nominal spacecraft shielding. It is also well measured by a variety of space-borne instrumentation. However, for human spaceflight the shielding levels are far greater and therefore the critical energy of incident particles is also higher. Unfortunately, the high energy solar proton measurements come with a great deal of uncertainty as a result of the width of the energy bins of monitors meaning that the correct average energy of particles is difficult to discern and, furthermore, there are fewer instruments taking measurements in this range thus reducing the length of the high-energy solar proton dataset and the ability to calibrate measurements.

The most important source of data for overcoming these dataset limitations is the data from neutron monitors (NMs) which see flux enhancements as a result of the secondary neutrons produced when high energy solar protons are attenuated in the upper atmosphere. By first subtracting the contribution from galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and then accounting for the particle cut-off rigidity based on the location of the NM measurements for very high-energy protons can be discerned. Work done by Tylka and Dietrich (2009) provides a reliable starting place by describing the combined satellite and neutron-monitor event-integrated proton spectra with a Band function (Band et al. 1993).

Using this data, we present probabilistic models for the high energy proton environment for use in spacecraft missions where solar particles from 200 MeV to 1 GeV are important. We also present the results of a study into the rise times of fluxes to assess reasonable warning times for astronauts to halt an EVA and/or get to a storm shelter on the spacecraft. The work is supported by ESA's General Studies Programme.

New space-weather forecast-tool for predicting the arrival of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) is presented. The forecast-tool is based on the "Drag-Based Model" (DBM), developed in the frame of the European Commission FP7 Project SOTERIA (SOlar-TERrestrial Investigations and Archives) and advanced within FP7 Project COMESEP (Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles). The DBM is based on a hypothesis that the driving Lorentz force that launches CME ceases in the upper corona, and that beyond certain distance the dynamics becomes governed solely by the interaction of the ICME and the ambient solar wind. This assumption is founded on the fact that in the interplanetary space fast ICMEs decelerate, whereas slow ones accelerate, showing a tendency to adjust their velocity with the ambient solar wind. In particular, we consider the option where the drag acceleration has the quadratic dependence on the ICME relative speed, which is expected in the collisionless environment, where the drag is caused primarily by emission of MHD waves. This is the simplest version of DBM, where the equation of motion can be solved analytically, providing explicit solutions for the Sun-Earth ICME transit time and the impact speed. DBM offers easy handling and straightforward application in the real-time space-weather forecasting. DBM results are compared with remotely-measured interplanetary kinematics of several ICMEs, whereas forecasting abilities are tested on the statistical basis by employing in situ measurements. Finally, the advantages and drawbacks of DBM are summarized. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

Using single spacecraft measurements from STEREO-COR2+HI1+HI2 we study the propagation behavior of a sample of well observed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space. For this we started to do a systematic testing on different de-projection methods for transforming off-pointed and wide field HI1/HI2 images to Sun centered polar coordinate system (NRL tool versus SATPLOT/JPL tool). First results for the ecliptic plane showed that both tools deliver reliable results for the measurement of elongation of CME structures.
The time-elongation measurements from NRL and SATPLOT are further used for deriving CME speeds and arrival times at 1AU, by assuming constant CME speed and direction. We use geometrical modeling for single spacecraft HI data, approximating the evolution of the CME front with different geometrical shapes (Fixed-Phi, Harmonic Mean - HM, Self-Similar Expansion - SSE). The results will give error estimations for forecasting CMEs using the different methods. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreements n°284461 [eHEROES] and n°263252 [COMESEP].

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares are transient phenomena with huge energy releases originating from the solar corona. They can immensely influence the conditions of the heliosphere and space weather at Earth. We investigate and analyze the evolution of the X1.4-class flare/CME event of 22 September 2011 that took place on the eastern limb of the Sun and produced a distinct system of flare loops. >From Earth, the event was observed on the solar limb from enabling us to derive de-projected height-time curves of the evolving loops. For a continuous tracking of the loop system in EUV using SDO/AIA data of 5s time-resolution, we developed a method that automatically detects the height of the loop tops over a given reference point by analyzing the intensity profile perpendicular to the solar limb. With this method, we measured the height-time profiles of the loop system in the different wavelength channels (AIA 171, 211, and 304 A, H-alpha data from the Kanzelhoehe Observatory, the Hvar Observatory, and from the GONG H-Alpha Network) over a time period of 12 hours after the flare onset. We identify characteristic features in the height-time curves which stem from non-uniform growth of the flare-loop system. At different wavelength channels such features show a slight delay in space and time that can be interpreted in terms of cooling processes. In addition, we put special focus on the early phase of the event for which we compare the growth of the loop system with the kinematics of the CME and try to find a connection between rapid growth of the loop system and other parameters, like enhanced X-ray flux.
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n°284461 [eHEROES].

Space weather increasingly influences our technology-dependent modern-day life on Earth and in its orbit. Future manned missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond will be even more vulnerable to space weather effects and require careful preparation. Moreover, longer-term effects of space weather determine the properties of surfaces of moons and asteroids, and even short-term properties of planetary magnetospheres and atmospheres. I will present some first measurements of the radiation environment on the surface of another planet, Mars, and discuss space weather effects throughout the solar system and beyond.

Magnetic clouds (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections. They are characterized as intervals of enhanced, smoothly rotating interplanetary magnetic field, low plasma beta and temperature in spacecraft in situ data. In this study we analyze the evolution of a sample of MCs, observed by at least two radially aligned spacecrafts at different heliocentric distances. The data-sets are fitted with a force-free, constant-alpha flux rope model, assuming a cylindrical flux tube of circular cross-section. Using the outcome of this fitting model we calculate the estimated cross section diameter, the poloidal and the axial magnetic field, the electric current, the magnetic flux and the inductance. All these parameters are further studied as a function of heliocentric distance. In this way, eroded magnetic flux can be directly estimated. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252). C.F. was supported by NSF grant AGS-1140211 and Wind grant NNX10AQ29G.

Magnetic field reconstruction codes, have been often utilized to provide an insight into the magnetic field structure of coronal mass ejections (CMEs).  The launch of STEREO 6 years ago have made multi-spacecraft measurements of CMEs possible. However, due to the approximations made when building these methods, the CME magnetic field may not always be reconstructed correctly. In some cases, it could be totally at fault, as we have shown in a previous work, where the reconstruction of a simulated CME with minimal twist yielded a helically twisted magnetic field (this was the longest sentence ever). Here, we investigate the same structure using multiple synthetic satellites at different positions with respect to the CME axis, and see how much we can learn about the global magnetic structure of the CME from multi-spacecraft measurements.

In the next decades, many world wide space agencies are planning to colonize new celestial bodies, such as the Moon, Mars and the asteroids. In order to undertake this type of missions different risks have to be taken into account, including space radiations, which are one of the biggest issue to consider.
This work aimed to develop a quick and easy tool able to assess doses received by astronauts during these interplanetary journeys, with the particular feature to take data source directly from satellite recordings and online available dataset. After setting in advance the number, composition and thickness of each layer shielding the incoming ionizing particles, this tool evaluates the effective dose or the ambient dose equivalent released by those particles able to penetrate trough these layers, thanks to the Bethe-Bloch's equation for the stopping power assessment.
Finally, comparisons with results obtained from SPENVIS for both the case to the Moon and to Mars are presented and analyzed.

The research leading to these results has received funding from the Euro- pean Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement eHeroes (project n 284461, www.eheroes.eu).

The fluxes of low energy electrons with energies < 100 keV are responsible for such a hazardous charging phenomena as surface charging. The electron flux at these energies varies significantly with geomagnetic activity and even during quiet time periods. We present the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) which provides the distribution of low energy electrons in the inner magnetosphere and along any orbit of any satellite, for both already in space and at the planning stage. The IMPTAM model follows distributions of ions and electrons with arbitrary pitch angles from the plasma sheet to the inner L-shell regions with energies reaching up to hundreds of keVs in time-dependent magnetic and electric fields. We trace a distribution of particles in the guiding center, or drift, approximation, and the drift velocities are considered such that relativistic effects for electrons are taken into account. The IMPTAM is driven by the observed parameters such as IMF By and Bz, solar wind velocity, number density and dynamic pressure and Dst index. The substorm-associated increases in the observed fluxes can be captured when substorm-associated electromagnetic fields are taken into account. We introduced the substorm-associated electromagnetic fields by launching several pulses at the substorm onsets. We present the results for GEO and MEO orbits.

One of main issues of space weather is the timely prediction of strong geomagnetic storms, mainly caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) arriving at Earth. However, with current knowledge on CMEs, we are not yet able to predict the arrival time, velocity and magnetic field, or even if it will hit or entirely miss the Earth. Therefore, an empirical statistical model was established and implemented that can be used as an early geomagnetic storm warning. For every detected CME, the alert system provides a probability estimation of both arrival and geoeffectiveness using near-real time remote observations of CMEs and associated flares.

The probability estimation for CME arrival resulted from an analysis of front-sided halo CMEs. For each of these CMEs the relationship with an Interplanetary CME (ICME) was identified based on in-situ data. As such an empirical probabilistic relationship was established for the CME arrival based on the source position.

The statistical geoeffectiveness model was set up using a dataset of front-sided, solar flare-associated CMEs and association was made with a specific Dst (disturbance storm time) index. This sample contains geoeffective and non-geoeffective CMEs. The results of an extensive statistical analysis confirmed some previously known connections between remote solar properties and geomagnetic storms, namely the importance of CME speed, apparent width, source position and associated solar flare type. We quantify these relationships and use them to construct a statistical model for predicting the probability of geomagnetic storm level. Both probability models for CME arrival and geoeffectiveness are combined to provide a geomagnetic storm alert in case of CME detection.

This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252).

We present a semi-analytical model of the ion foreshock for CME-driven shock waves. The model utilizes the theory of diffusive shock acceleration to describe the ion mean free path in the foreshock region. However, we make use of an extensive set of self-consistent Monte Carlo simulations of the coupled particle acceleration and wave generation at the shock to recalibrate the parameters of the simplified theory. As a result, we obtain an analytical model of the mean free path upstream of the shock, which has parameters that can be determined from observations of energetic particle fluxes at 1 AU and from MHD simulations of shock propagation. The model provides a computationally effective formulation of wave-particle interactions upstream of a coronal/interplanetary shock, which can be integrated to space-weather relevant models of particle acceleration/transport during large solar energetic particle events. The tool will enable the specification of the peak fluxes and fluences during shock passages at small distances from the Sun, not yet accessed by spacecraft measurements.
These results have been obtained in the EU/FP7 project SPACECAST, grant agreement no. 262468.

We present an interactive graphics tool that can easily visualise the idealized shape of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and its orientation with respect to Earth and other planets. The software is based on S2PLOT, an advanced 3-d plotting library developed by Barnes et al. at Swinburne University of Technology, Australia. S2PLOT can be used with C, C++, FORTRAN, and Python programs on Linux and Mac OS X platforms. The library features dynamic geometries that can be controlled by the user via mouse and keyboard.

The current version of our tool takes a 3-d point cloud generated by the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model of Thernisien et al. (2006) as input and displays the CME as a textured wireframe. Precise ephemerides and orbits for Earth and other terrestrial planets (Mercury, Venus, Mars) are computed with the help of the Naval Observatory Vector Astrometry Software (NOVAS) package. The graphics on the screen can be freely rotated and zoomed by the user. Keyboard callbacks allow the user to alter display options like transparency, coordinate grids or labelling. Velocity information can be used to geometrically propagate the CME into interplanetary space and estimate the arrival time at Earth.

The aim of our software tool is to help visualise coronal mass ejections: their shape, size, orientation, propagation, and arrival at planets in the inner solar system, primarily Earth. It can be applied in support of space-weather forecasting (e.g. as developed in the framework of the AFFECTS project), for education and public outreach activities, as well as for the display and interpretation of GCS modelling results.

Information on space weather for safety of spacecraft and manned space mission has been gathered and analyzed by the space environment group in the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) since 1987. Several instruments for in-situ measurements of space environment have been developed and installed to Japanese and French satellites, Space Shuttle flights, and International Space Station, which are particle detectors for electrons, protons, heavy ions, and neutrons, magnetometer, atomic oxygen monitor, dosimeter, single event monitor, potential monitor for electrostatic charge and discharge, and space micro debris detector. Information obtained from these instruments has been gathered into the Space Environment and Effects System (SEES) in the JAXA as well as other information obtained from other spacecrafts and ground-based equipments. The SEES has several functions by using these data as follows; (1) to inform real-time information on space environment for operators of spacecraft and manned space mission, (2) to alert space radiation hazard for those operators in case of solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storms and sub-storms, (3) to provide usual space environment models such as solar, interplanetary, geo-magnetospheric, and cosmic ray activities for spacecraft engineers, (4) to analyze the gathered data with international scientific researchers for understanding of solar-terrestrial physics as well as for development of more precise space environment models for future space missions. In this presentation, each function of the SEES will be reported.

We develop and examine self-similar models of coronal transients for plasma with pressure anisotropy within the framework of Chew-Goldberger-Low double adiabatic MHD model. The relevance of these models for solar-type, slowly rotating stars and for other kinds of Main Sequence stars is studied.

Delta spots are characterized by umbrae of opposite polarities sharing a common penumbra. Due to this magnetic configuration, delta spots are often the sites where major flares occur and their study might provide new insights on the mechanisms leading to the instabilities that trigger flares and eventually CMEs. High resolution observations of these features are quite rare and the opportunity offered by a data set recently acquired at the Swedish 1-m Solar Tower (SST) has been exploited in order to study the evolution of a delta spot hosting some flare events. Active region NOAA 11267 was observed on August 6, 2011 from 09:00:05 UT to 09:37:37 UT, using CRISP at the SST. CRISP acquired full Stokes profiles over the Fe I line at 630.25 nm, and spectroscopic data over the Fe I line at 557.6 nm. Filtergrams in the core of the Ca II H line at 396.8 nm were simultaneously acquired. The spectro-polarimetric data have been processed using the MOMFBD (Multi-Object Multi-Frame Blind Deconvolution) technique. The results obtained from the SIR inversion of these data are discussed with respect to those reported in the literature.

This study has been carried out in the framework of the EU FP7 project "eHEROES - Environment for Human Exploration and RObotic Experimentation in Space" (grant n. 284461).

The Moon has no general overall magnetic field to shield it. But limited regions of the Moon surface show significant local magnetic fields with strengths that are comparable to that found in the Earth magnetotail or even stronger. So there is no doubt that they can play a dominant role in determining the local environment in those magnetized regions.
The literature refers to these regions as magnetic anomalies. Important recent papers have investigated the issue theoretically and observationally. The Lunar Science Laboratory at the University of Colorado even conducts experiments in the laboratory to model such anomalies.
A key question is the characterization of the response of these regions to the incoming solar wind plasma and especially its perturbances and the solar energetic particles generated in magnetic storms.
What does the local magnetic field to those incoming particles? And what action they have on the local environment. A possible future mission of exploration what radiation environment should expect in those location? Are they prime real estate or should they be avoided?
We at eHeroes, www.eHeroes.eu, are developing an analysis tool that can answer all these questions by conducting a complete first principle model of the anomaly and its interaction with solar wind and SEPS. The model is based on iPic3D, a fully kinetic tool for space weather modeling.
The Moon is there waiting for us to return. But we need to prepare and understand the territory better than in the roaring days of the Apollo missions. We want to do that.

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[2] Wang, X., M. Horányi, and S. Robertson. "Characteristics of a plasma sheath in a magnetic dipole field: Implications to the solar wind interaction with the lunar magnetic anomalies." Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics (1978–2012) 117.A6 (2012).

[3] Markidis, Stefano, and Giovanni Lapenta. "Multi-scale simulations of plasma with iPIC3D." Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 80.7 (2010): 1509-1519.

[4] Lapenta, Giovanni. "Particle simulations of space weather." Journal of Computational Physics 231.3 (2012): 795-821.

Solar activity poses substantial risk for astronauts of the International Space Station (ISS) both on board and during extravehicular activity. We present in this work a parallel analysis of the ALTEA-ISS on board data and of the solar flares on the 7th of March 2012 produced by NOAA AR11429, described in the framework of space weather. The ALTEA (Anomalous Long Term Effects on Astronauts) experiment mounted on the ISS is an active detector composed of six silicon telescopes and is able to follow the dynamics of the radiation flux. During its operation in 2012 a number of flux peaks were detected in correspondence with solar events.