PAGER: Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation

Our PAGER project provides space weather predictions initiated from observations at the Sun and produces forecasts of radiation in near-Earth space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions and a historical record of the dynamics of the cold plasma density and ring current allow for evaluation of surface charging, and predictions of the relativistic electron fluxes allow for the evaluation of deep dielectric charging. The project provides a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments, which allow satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a significant threat.

As a backbone of the project, we use the most advanced codes that currently exist and adapt existing codes to perform ensemble simulations. This project includes a number of innovative tools including data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, new models of near-Earth electromagnetic wave environment, ensemble predictions of solar wind parameters at L1, and data-driven forecasts of the geomagnetic Kp index and plasma density.

The PAGER forecasting framework can be used for realistic modelling of extreme space weather events.



Contact Michael Wutzig