Session P4 - Space Weather Effects on ground-level systems: Industrial and Other End users

Ciaran Beggan (British Geological Survey), Juliane Huebert (British Geological Survey), Aziza Bounhir (University of Marrakech), Mario Bisi, onsite (UKRI STFC RAL Space)

Large and rapid changes of the geomagnetic field can produce numerous effects on surface or near-surface technology and have potentially detrimental impacts on its users. These effects include, for example, induced geoelectric fields which lead to Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in grounded technology, effects on radio propagation for over-the-horizon communication and retardation of timing signals in GNSS systems leading to loss of proper functionality. Understanding how and why extreme geomagnetic fluctuations occur is vital for developing models and methodologies to predict their effects during space weather events. In this session, talks on measuring, modelling and predicting externally-driven ground geomagnetic activity are solicited. Research on the effects on ground-based technology such as GICs in power grid, pipelines and railways, as well as the impact on positioning, navigation and timing applications are welcome. In addition, presentations on the broader or unintended consequences of space weather effects on ground technology can signpost and explore future avenues of research.

Poster Viewing
Monday October 24, 09:00 - 14:00, Poster Area

Talks
Wednesday October 26, 08:45 - 10:15, Water Hall

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Talks : Time schedule

Wednesday October 26, 08:45 - 10:15, Water Hall

08:45	Preparing for Space Weather impacts - GB Rail	Yeomans, G et al.	Invited Oral
	Guy Yeomans
	Rail Safety and Standards Board (GB)
	The threat to rail services from extreme space weather (SWx) remains a largely underexplored area of potential impact. Rail services are a component of interdependent critical national infrastructure and are a functionally interconnected and interactive ‘ground level system’ with significant reliance on “surface or near-surface technology”. Thus, the range of risks, both anticipated and potential, from space weather is of material importance to ensuring the safety and operability of a rail network to the prospective impacts of a future severe space weather event. In attempting to understand the resilience of rail to this hazard, we assert it is not enough to only understand, as fully as possible, the potential direct impacts to ground technologies and the range of assets they encompass; this is a necessary and recognised challenge. For this knowledge to be most useful it must be considered in a broader context, namely, how would technology-level space weather impacts create dynamics of maloperation, failure or disruption at the systems infrastructure-service level. To assist key rail stakeholders, specifically those in operational, risk management and emergency preparedness roles, we wish to explore these issues by developing a structured research exercise examining the following aspects: (i) Systems and system-of-systems: rail networks exhibit both up-stream and down-stream interdependencies with other areas of critical national infrastructure. Exploring the potential compound or cascading risks, unintended consequences and, therefore, rail’s own overall resilience to a SWx event. (ii) Criticalities: determining which technologies or assets may be detrimentally impacted by SWx events must be considered in the context of their contribution to the correct and continued functioning of critical systems, the loss of which, would mean the degradation of essential services. (iii) Full event cycle: to avoid focussing solely on the characteristics of the period of active hazard emergence, the fuller event cycle covering pre-event, event, stabilisation, and recovery phases must be considered. Such an exercise will help determine vulnerabilities and methods to reduce exposure and impact of SWx hazards.
09:05	Impacts of common disturbances in the auroral zone - Study of time-and distance-dependent degradations of network RTK performance	Jacobsen, K et al.	Oral
	Knut Stanley Jacobsen [1], Nadezda Sokolova [2], Anders Martin Solberg [1], Mohammed Ouassou [1]
	[1] Norwegian Mapping Authority, [2] SINTEF
	In this study we examine the performance of a network real-time kinematic (NRTK) positioning service at high latitudes (≈ 70 o N). The NRTK used is the Norwegian national positioning service ”CPOS”. To test the performance, 6 geodetic quality receivers were deployed at various distances from the network receivers and used to collect positioning data for most of the year 2021. This test network is located in the night-time auroral oval region during normal conditions. Statistics are presented showing variation in performance as a function of the distance to the nearest NRTK receiver and as a function of the time-of-day. Performance is found to be significantly degraded during night-time, with approximately ten- fold increases of the occurrence of large positioning errors and considerable increases in the time-to-fix. The distance from the network receivers was also found to be a factor for substantial performance degradation. The cause of the observed degradations are likely small-scale ionospheric density structures in the auroral oval region. Small-scale TEC gradients are regularly observed in the region, which is a challenge for the interpolation performed in the NRTK system.
09:17	Off-Great Circle Propagation at High Latitudes Caused by Polar Cap Patches	Cameron, T et al.	Oral
	T. G. Cameron[1], R. A. D. Fiori[1], T. Thayaparan[2], A. Spicher[3], G. W. Perry[4]
	[1] Natural Resources Canada, [2] Defence Research and Development Canada, [3] UiT The Arctic University of Norway, [4] New Jersey Institute of Technology
	Deflection of High Frequency (HF) radio waves to off-great circle paths can have detrimental effects on technologies that utilize HF radio propagation such as over-the-horizon radar (OTHR). For example, the arrival of HF radio signals via multiple paths simultaneously can degrade signal quality, and cause errors in locating targets with OTHR. At high latitudes, polar cap patches are a significant cause of off-great circle propagation. Polar cap patches are localized, drifting regions of enhanced F-region electron density that appear in the polar cap, usually associated with increased geomagnetic activity. In this study, data from a high latitude HF radio link are used to investigate the impact of polar cap patches on HF radio wave propagation. Examples of patches crossing the propagation path are shown along with impacts to signal parameters such as angle of arrival, time-of-flight, and Doppler shift. A statistical analysis of the occurrence of off-great circle propagation due to patches, and the associated impacts is also presented. These results provide an indication of when users should expect HF radio wave propagation to be impacted by polar cap patches, and the degree to which signals are affected.
09:29	Study of Solar Flare-Induced Very Low Frequency Signals Perturbations	Jalilov, N et al.	Oral
	Elista Bayramova, Famil Mustafa, Namig Jalilov, Ilgar Alakbarov
	Shamakhi Astrophysical Observatory named after Nasiraddin Tusi, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, Baku, Azerbaijan
	Solar flares are known for their adverse effect on radio communication through the perturbations in the ionosphere. Enhancement in X-ray radiation when a Solar flare occurs increases the electron density of the D-region, thus increasing the absorption of radio signals. In this paper, we studied perturbations of Very Low Frequency (VLF) signals related to solar flare flares (C-, M-, X- classes) for the years 2010-2011. We present perturbation duration of signal amplitude, changes in the amplitude of signals, time delay between solar flare onset and start time of anomaly in amplitude, and time delay between VLF peak amplitude and X-ray peak flux have been studied. The amplitude of VLF signals transmitted by GBZ transmitter ( frequency f = 19.6 kHz) at Anthorn, United Kingdom, JJI transmitter (f = 22.2 kHz) at Ebino, Miyazaki, Japan and DHO transmitter (f = 23,4 kHz) at Rhauderfehn, Germany and received by the Automatic Weather Electromagnetic System for Observation Modelling and Education (AWESOME, Stanford University, USA) receiver located in middle latitude geographical station at the Shamakhy Astrophysical Observatory, Pirgulu, Azerbaijan (latitude 40°46’204 N, longitude 48°35’04E) was used for analysis.
09:41	GIC-associated corrosion on pipelines	Trichtchenko, L et al.	Oral
	L. Trichtchenko[1], A.P. Trishchenko[1], P. Hejda[2]
	[1]Natural Resources Canada; [2]Institute of Geophysics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
	Geomagnetically induced currents, often known as telluric currents, are produced by the natural variations of the Earth magnetic field. These currents interfere with the pipeline corrosion protection system, which results in the enhanced corrosion rates (loss of metal per year). Estimations of the telluric-associated corrosion will be presented. These were derived based on measurements of PSP on pipelines in Australia and in Europe during two periods of strong geomagnetic activity (in 2003 and in 2004) and also on the modelled PSP based on geomagnetic data from 3 observatories at different latitudes. It has been shown that the estimated telluric-associated corrosion rates might exceed the maximum safe rate of 0.025 mm/year. Comparison of the results obtained with use PSP recordings shows that corrosion rates for near-equatorial pipeline (Australia) can be higher than for mid-latitude (Europe) due to the differences in pipeline electromagnetic parameters. Telluric-associated corrosion estimated for the modelled PSP based on geomagnetic data clearly demonstrate the latitudinal dependence following the latitudinal dependence of the geomagnetic activity with 6 times increase (on average) for 10 degrees in latitude.
09:53	Discussion	,	Oral
10:13	Closing remarks	,	Oral

Posters

1	Development of a Performance Indicator Application to help identifying Space Weather Impacts on GNSS	David, P et al.	Poster
	Paul David[1], Martin Kriegel[1], Jens Berdermann[1], Kirsti Kauristie[2], Knut Stanley Jacobsen[3], Vincent Fabbro[4], Hannah Laurens[5], Ralf Keil[5]
	[1]German Aerospace Center (DLR); [2]Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI); [3]Norwegian Mapping Authority (NMA); [4]ONERA/DEMR; [5]RHEA System GmbH for ESA/ESOC
	In the context of the ESA Space Weather Service Network, the development of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) performance indicators is considered essential to address the increasing end-user demand for space weather information in the navigation domain. A targeted analysis of space weather-related perturbations of technical systems and services in the field of satellite-based navigation has been done to fulfill the requirements in different user domains and related applications. The goal of the P3-SWE-XLII: Space Weather Impact on GNSS Performance Application Development (SWIGPAD) project is to design and develop an application that provides GNSS performance indicators on the basis of existing data supplied by various European research institutes through the ESA Space Weather Service Portal (available at https://swe.ssa.esa.int), tailored to representative use cases developed together with industry and government experts in specific user workshops. The SWIGPAD application provides users access to information on current and expected impacts of space weather on positioning at their particular location. It also presents end users in the various GNSS application domains a numerical and graphical representation of the estimate of position uncertainty based on recent ionospheric conditions, as well as its evolution over time. We will present the project results and provide information on access and usage of the SWIGPAD application.
2	SWAP: Establishing a network of space weather researchers and stakeholders in Austria	Bailey, R et al.	Poster
	Rachel Bailey [1], Roman Leonhardt [1], Georg Achleitner [2], Dennis Albert [3], Tanja Amerstorfer [4], Peter Beck [5], Sandro Krauss [6], Marcin Latocha [5], Christian Möstl [4], Rumi Nakamura [7], Martin Reiss [8,4], Philipp Schachinger [3], Michael Schönhuber [9], Susanne Schweitzer [9], Manuela Temmer [10], Astrid Veronig [10]
	[1] Conrad Observatory, ZAMG, Vienna, Austria, [2] Austrian Power Grid, Vienna, Austria, [3] Institute of Electrical Power Systems, TU Graz, Graz, Austria, [4] Austrian Space Weather Office, ZAMG, Graz, Austria, [5] Seibersdorf Laboratories, Seibersdorf, Austria, [6] Institute of Geodesy, TU Graz, Graz, Austria, [7] Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Graz, Austria, [8] Community Coordinated Modeling Center, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, USA, [9] Institut Digital, JOANNEUM Research, Graz, Austria, [10] Institute of Physics & Kanzelhöhe Observatory, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
	The SWAP (Space Weather: The Austrian Platform) project deals with the diffusion of space weather expertise to potential users and the public at a national level. Funded last year as part of the Austrian Space Applications Programme (FFG), the project is carried out by a consortium of eight partners in space weather research and application. Our aims are to (1) connect national expertise in the field, (2) establish a national space weather platform, and (3) plot a road map for the future development of the space weather sector in Austria. In this poster, I will present the progress in developing a national platform. A newly established website serves as a single point of entry into the topic of space weather. We use this platform as a launchpad to contact stakeholders and provide a resource gathering national expertise and infrastructure, with the intent to expand awareness of space weather events and their potential consequences. Using a space weather “atlas”, the website ties together expertise with current space weather forecasts. A direct line of contact to the relevant experts is provided in case of extreme events. We have identified various stakeholders including regional warning centres, power grid operators, groups relying on GPS and radio signals, and the press, among others. As in any networking and outreach initiative, there are many challenges involved when contacting stakeholders, depicting space weather topics to the general public, and in consolidating current expertise. This project can be a useful test case for similar initiatives in other countries.
3	Influence of shield wires in GIC simulation: application to the Portuguese transmission network	Santos, R et al.	Poster
	Rute Rodrigues Santos [1,2], Maria Alexandra Pais [1], Joana Alves Ribeiro [1,3], João Cardoso [2]
	[1] Univ. Coimbra, CITEUC, Department of Physics, Coimbra, Portugal, [2] Univ. Coimbra, LIBPhys, Department of Physics, Coimbra, Portugal, [3] Univ. Lisbon, Instituto Dom Luiz, Lisboa, Portugal
	In Power Systems, shield wires are protective cables for phase conductors and are commonly connected to the ground at substations and, often, at each supporting pylon. They represent an additional path for Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs). The awareness and comprehension of GICs is a topic of interest in our modern society as it is one of the main hazards of Space Weather, as one of its major consequences may lead to blackouts. GIC simulations in power systems need information from the power grid model, ground conductivity, and geomagnetic field. The shield wires effect is generally not taken into consideration due to the lack of information from the national transmission system operator and the fact that it requires much computational time. In a previous study [1], we showed that, in the power grid model, the heavy task of including all shield wire connections to the ground can be substituted by a simpler equivalent circuit connected in parallel with each of the two end substations grounding resistance. This equivalent circuit is composed not only by the equivalent resistance of the entire shield wire ladder but also by the equivalent induced voltage due to geomagnetic activity and earth conductivity. Differences can be relevant in relatively short transmission lines (a few dozen towers) like in the case of the Portuguese network or in others with equivalent topologies and dimensions. We also point out the most sensible network parameters, capable of significantly changing the network response to shield wires. Finally, the proposed equivalent circuits will be included in the entire Portuguese transmission network, and their effect on GICS, during different geomagnetic storms will be analysed. [1] Santos, R., Pais, M.A., Cardoso, J., Alves Ribeiro, J. and Pinheiro, F., “Effect of Shield Wires on GICs”. In IEEE International Conference on Wireless for Space and Extreme Environments (WiSEE), https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PwGXbTA6ekSEVdUDD_F4t6nCK6VkV_Iw/view, 2021
4	Solar radio bursts impact on the International GNSS Service network during Solar Cycle 24	Flores-soriano, M et al.	Poster
	Manuel Flores-Soriano
	Space Weather Research Group - Universidad de Alcalá
	L-band solar radio bursts (SRB) are a source of interferences for Global Navigation Satellite Systems. They increase the level of noise in the satellites signal and lead to a degradation of the carrier-to-noise ratio (C/N0). In intense cases they reduce the receiver tracking performance and can produce intermittent loss of lock on several satellites. The impact is nevertheless difficult to predict as it depends on many factors such as Sun elevation, SRB intensity and polarization, satellite distribution, type of signal and type of receiver. Taking these factors into consideration, this work explores the impact of the 20 most intense L-band SRBs of Solar Cycle 24 on all the sunlit receivers of the International GNSS Service network.
6	Degradation of NRTK at High Latitudes During Space Weather Events	Skjæveland, A et al.	Poster
	Arnlaug Høgås Skjæveland and Knut Stanley Jacobsen
	Norwegian Mapping Authority, Hønefoss, Norway
	During a space weather event the ionosphere at higher latitudes, and in particular the auroral oval region, experiences significant disturbances including scintillation-inducing structuring of the plasma as well as plasma structures at many scales. These phenomena are known to affect the performance of GNSS-based systems. In this case study the performance of a network Real-Time Kinematic (NRTK) positioning system during two space weather events are examined in detail. CPOS is a Norwegian nationwide NRTK and is the system used in this study. Six monitor stations have been deployed at various distances to the network receivers, at a location at approximately 70 degrees north. The variety in the distance gives the opportunity to examine distance-dependent effects as well as gradients in Total Electron Content (TEC) and the movements of TEC structures. In addition to the data from the monitors, we include ROTI and scintillation data to characterize the ionospheric conditions. Degradations in position errors, delays in obtaining fix solutions, and loss of positioning solutions are analyzed and related to the observed ionospheric disturbances. The result shows a distance dependent degradation in position errors and decreased number of fix solutions during the disturbed periods of the day.