Session SWR3 - Radiation Belts Forecast Applications for End-Users: from current achievements and needs to future requirements

Vincent Maget, onsite (ONERA, France), Ingmar Sandberg, onsite (SPARC, Greece), Alexi Glover, onsite (ESA/ESOC, Germany)

The prediction of Radiation Belts dynamics is a key element for the creation of reliable operation models. This field is currently very active in terms of on-going research and development efforts in the framework of Space Weather activities (fundings from National Agencies, EU’s Horizon 2020 programme and European Space Agency’s Space Safety Programme). Quality of Radiation Belts nowcast and forecast is of prime importance for satellite stakeholders and operators in order to ensure the survivability of their in-orbit systems. However, bridging domains to ensure specific needs and requirements of the End-Users can be met with current and future capabilities of Space Weather oriented tools and models continues to be challenging. In parallel, provision of accurate nowcasts and forecasts remain always challenging as it requires federating together members from the whole Sun-Earth connection scientific community, especially to quantify successfully the dynamical radiation environment along satellite orbits. The purpose of this session is to bring together scientists, operators and modelers that have been involved in recent and on-going European efforts, spanning from the definition of the current and the future End-Users requirements, to the developments conducted on all related critical topics. Highlights on nowcast/forecast framework design, validation and performance assessment, as well as on data and models used and/or expected to improve such forecast, are welcome.

Poster Viewing
Thursday October 27, 08:30 - 13:30, Poster Area

Talks
Thursday October 27, 14:15 - 15:30, Fire Hall

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Talks : Time schedule

Thursday October 27, 14:15 - 15:30, Fire Hall

14:15	A prototype service for the prediction of the outer Van Allen Belt dynamics	Daglis, I et al.	Oral
	Ioannis A. Daglis[1], Stefanos Doulfis[1], Christos Katsavrias[1], Afroditi Nasi[1], Antoine Brunet[2], Nour Dahmen[2], and Sebastien Bourdarie[2]
	[1]Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece; [2]ONERA, Toulouse, France
	The European SafeSpace project has been implementing a synergistic approach to improve space weather forecasting capabilities from the current lead times of a few hours to 2-4 days. This approach is based on several state-of-the-art models for the solar wind conditions prediction (the solar wind acceleration model MULTI-VP with the heliospheric propagation models Helio1D and EUHFORIA) as well as for the forecasting of the outer radiation belt state (the ONERA Geoffectiveness Neural Networks, the IASB plasmasphere model, the NKUA EMERALD model for the prediction of the radial diffusion coefficients, the IAP model for the estimation of the VLF diffusion coefficients and the Salammbô radiation belts code). This work presents the combined outcome of the aforementioned models, which is a prototype service of particle radiation indicators available to spacecraft operators, space industry and the space weather scientific community. These radiation indicators are user-defined and inferred using historical fluence data at three specific orbits (LEO, GNSS-MEO and GEO). This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 870437 for the SafeSpace (Radiation Belt Environmental Indicators for the Safety of Space Assets) project.
14:30	Radiation belt forecasts from the SaRIF and Sat-Risk projects	Glauert, S et al.	Oral
	Sarah Glauert[1], Richard Horne[1], Peter Kirsch[1]
	[1] British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
	There is a growing need for services that provide reconstructions, nowcasts and forecasts throughout the radiation belts, as the number of satellites on orbit and the range of orbits in use are both increasing. We will discuss two such systems; The Satellite RIsk prediction and radiation Forecast (SaRIF) system that is freely available on the European Space Agency space weather portal, and a new system being developed in the Sat-Risk project for the UK Met Office as part of the SWIMMR program. SaRIF was developed following consultations with satellite operators, designers, underwriters and space agency staff and provides forecasts of the high-energy electron flux throughout the outer radiation belt. It also translates these fluxes into risk indicators, charging currents, dose rates and total ionising dose along spacecraft orbits. The forecasts are provided by the British Antarctic Survey Radiation Belt Model (BAS-RBM) running in an automatic system using real-time data to drive the physics-based model and evaluations of the SaRIF forecasts and reconstructions for GEO show prediction efficiencies for >2 MeV electrons of 0.78 and 0.87 respectively. The Sat-Risk forecasts will use recent modelling developments to include the inner radiation belt, dynamic magnetic field models, new models for the wave-particle interactions and real-time data from inside GEO in the simulations, extending the range of orbits covered and improving the simulations.
14:45	Forecasting the Source/Seed Electron Population at GEO	Katsavrias, C et al.	Oral
	Christos Katsavrias[1,2], Sigiava Aminalragia–Giamini[1,2], Constantinos. Papadimitriou[1,2], Antoine Brunet[3], Nourallah Dahmen[3], Ingmar Sandberg[2], Piers Jiggens[4], Ioannis A. Daglis[1,5], Sebastien Bourdarie[3] and Hugh Evans[4]
	[1]Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; [2]Space Applications and Research Consultancy (SPARC), Athens, Greece; [3]ONERA/Department of Space Environment, Toulouse, France; [4]ESA/ESTEC, Noordwijkerhout, Netherlands; [5]Hellenic Space Center, Athens, Greece
	Electron variability at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) plays a key role in satellite operations especially concerning the low energies which can lead to surface charging effects on spacecraft. In this work, we have used 9 years (2011–2019) of electron measurements from GOES-13, 14 and 15 to develope a predictive multiple regression model for electron fluxes in the 30–600 keV energy range, which uses solely solar wind parameters' measurements. The model may have a variety of applications related to the nowcasting/forecasting of the distribution of electron fluxes at GEO including serving as low-energy boundary conditions for studying electron acceleration to relativistic energies or providing information for predicting surface and/or internal charging effects on spacecraft. This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme "SafeSpace" under grant agreement No 870437 and from the European Space Agency under the "European Contribution to International Radiation Environment Near Earth (IRENE) Modelling System" activity under ESA Contract No 4000127282/19/NL/IB/gg.
15:00	Reconstructing the dynamics of the outer electron radiation belt by means of the standard and ensemble Kalman filter with the VERB-3D code	Castillo tibocha, A et al.	Oral
	Angelica Maria Castillo Tibocha [1,2], Jana de Wiljes [4], Yuri Y. Shprits [1,2,3], Nikita A. Aseev
	[1] GFZ German Research Centre For Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; [2] University of Potsdam, Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Potsdam, Germany; [3] Department of Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA, [4] University of Potsdam, Institute of Mathematics, Potsdam, Germany
	Reconstruction and prediction of the state of the near-Earth space environment is important for anomaly analysis, development of empirical models and understanding of physical processes. Accurate reanalysis or predictions that account for uncertainties in the associated model and the observations, can be obtained by means of data assimilation. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is one of the most promising filtering tools for non-linear and high dimensional systems in the context of terrestrial weather prediction. In this study, we adapt traditional ensemble based filtering methods to perform data assimilation in the radiation belts. By performing a fraternal twin experiment, we assess the convergence of the EnKF to the standard Kalman filter (KF). Furthermore, with the split-operator technique, we develop two new three-dimensional EnKF approaches for electron phase space density that account for radial and local processes, and allow for reconstruction of the full 3D radiation belt space. The capabilities and properties of the proposed filter approximations are verified using Van Allen Probe and GOES data. Additionally, we validate the two 3D split-operator Ensemble Kalman filters against the 3D split-operator KF. We show how the use of the split-operator technique allows us to include more physical processes in our simulations and offers computationally efficient data assimilation tools that deliver accurate approximations to the optimal solution of the KF and are suitable for real-time forecasting.
15:15	Operational model (IMPTAM) for keV electrons in the inner Earth's magnetosphere	Ganushkina, N et al.	Oral
	Natalia Ganushkina [1, 2], Stepan Dubyagin [1]
	[1] Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, [2] University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
	Despite of the large amount of accumulated electron data in the inner magnetosphere and the existence of several empirical models, the physics-based model taking into account the main physical processes of particle transport, acceleration and losses as accurately as possible is the most feasible solution for specifying the radiation environment for surface charging. The Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration model (IMPTAM) developed for < 200 keV electrons has been the only tool operating online in real time since February 2013 under several EU-funded projects with its most recent version running at imptam.fmi.fi and imptam.engin.umich.edu. IMPTAM is driven by the real time solar wind and IMF parameters and geomagnetic indices and provides the keV electron flux at all L-shells and at all satellite orbits inside the modeling domain of 10 RE. Operational now- and forecast IMPTAM differs significantly from IMPTAM which can be used for specific scientific studies. The model must be able to work well with a certain set of parameters during different geomagnetic conditions and in different regions of the inner magnetosphere and, moreover, on the 10 min or so time scales. Validation of online model performance is limited at present due to absence of real-time satellite data covering the inner magnetosphere. In case of keV electron fluxes, there are several orders of magnitude differences between the fluxes at different locations and during quiet and disturbed conditions with different levels of variability. These challenging tasks are addressed in the validation approach.

Posters

1	A new Earth Radiation Belt Forecast And Nowcast (RB-FAN) Framework based on the Salammbô data assimilation codes	Ferlin, A et al.	Poster
	V. Maget (ONERA), S. Bourdarie (ONERA), A. Ferlin (ONERA), S. Poedts (KU Leuven), A. Kochanov (A. Kochanov), C. Papadimitriou (SPARC), I. Sandberg (SPARC), E. Botek (BIRA-IASB), V. Pierrard (BIRA-IASB), E. De Donder (BIRA-IASB), L. Zychova (BIRA-IASB), M. Dierckxsens (BIRA-IASB), N. Ganushkina (FMI), S. Dubyagin (FMI) A.Glover (ESA/ESOC – Space Weather Office (OPS-SW)), R. Keil (Rhea System GmbH for ESA/ESOC/OPS-SW ), H. Evans (ESA/ESTEC – TEC/EPS )
	In the frame of ESA’s Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Program (Period 3), the RB-FAN activity aims at developing a new framework dedicated to the nowcast and forecast of the trapped particle populations. The objective is to provide end-users reliable information to help them assess radiation belts related risks along their s/c orbits for the next three days. RB-FAN will be part of ESA’s SSA SWE Service Network and enhance its capabilities in the frame of both the Space Radiation (R-ESC) and Geomagnetic Conditions Expert Service Centre (G-ESC). The products will be displayed on a dedicated website, with configuration options for the end-users and accessible via the SSA SWE web portal. To ensure a three-day forecast horizon and optimal accuracy of these products, the RB-FAN framework relies on the Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC) to provide both solar wind structures propagation using the EUHFORIA model, and low energy particles dynamics in the Earth magnetosphere using the IMPTAM model. These outputs will then be used by the Salammbô data assimilation codes that cover the whole Earth radiation belts region, both for electrons (30 keV – 8 MeV) and protons (1 – 400 MeV). ONERA database as well as datasets provided by our partners (BIRA-IASB and SPARC) will be used to ensure the best accuracy of the forecast. A consortium of six partners (BIRA-IASB, KU-Leuven, FMI, SPARC, A. Kochanov and ONERA) has been set up to handle these multiple challenges. This presentation follows the first poster proposed in the previous ESWW. In this contribution, we will focus on the framework, its results and its future. Acknowledgement: This work is supported by the ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme P3-SWE-X activity RB-FAN under contract number 4000131381/20/D/CT.
2	SWE Network: Radiation Belt Activity Indices for Surface Charging, Internal Charging and Solar Array Degradation	Sicard, A et al.	Poster
	A. Sicard (1), S. Bourdarie (1), A. Ferlin (1), D. Lazaro (1)
	ONERA/DPHY, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
	In the scope of the Space Weather Service Network Development and Pre-Operation contract, ONERA develops some radiation belt activity indices which will be integrated in the SWE Network. Three indices are developed: a first index called Ratio R reflects the risk of solar array degradation, a second one called Ca4 is linked to the risk of surface charging and a third one called Ca8 is linked to the risk of internal charging. The Ratio R index is defined as the ratio between 4 MeV proton fluence obtained from THEMIS/SST data and fluence provided by AP8 Min along a given orbit. Ratio R is available since 2011. The Ca4 and Ca8 indices are derived from the convolution of the magnetic index aa and the relaxation characteristic time of trapped electrons: 4 days in the case of Ca4 and 8 days in the case of Ca8. Ca4 and Ca8 are available since 1950. The definition of these three indices will be presented in details and their evolution against time will be commented.
3	Data assimilation as a baseline for Space Weather and Climatology: work done at ONERA	Brunet, A et al.	Poster
	Antoine Brunet[1], Vincent Maget[1], Antoine Ferlin[1], Olivier Pannekoucke[2], Nour Dahmen[1], Martin Sabathier[1], Sébastien Bourdarie[1]
	[1]ONERA / DPHY; [2]CNRM
	Data assimilation has for a long time been used in Meteorology both for short-term forecast as well as for long term. Many technics have been developed over the decades to best adapt heterogeneous datasets to given physics-based models and observed dynamics. In the context of Space Weather and Space Climatology, relatively dated data assimilation methods have been applied in this domain, especially for the specifacation of radiation belts dynamics. Based on the Salammbô codes, we have been, at ONERA and over the years, adapting new data assimilation technics to our field of expertise, as well as developing pre and post processing tools to better assess Space Weather and Space Climatology challenges. We present in this poster the different developments conducted, from the data assimilation technics themselves and current ongoing upstream research, to framework prototypes currently under development (e.g. the ESA-SSA RBFAN and H2020-SAFESPACE projects) dedicated to Space Weather.
4	Plasmaspheric Products for Space Weather Services	Lichtenberger, J et al.	Poster
	János Lichtenberger[1,2], Balázs Heilig[3,1,2], Péter Steinbach[2], Dávid Koronczay[2], Lilla Juhász[2], Szilárd Pásztor[1], Bendegúz Bendicsek[4], Anders Joergen
	[1] Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary, [2] ELKH-ELTE Space Research Group, Budapest, Hungary, [3], Earth Physics and Space Science Institute, Sopron, Hungary, [4] Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, Netherlands, [5] New Mexico Institute for Mining and Engineering, Socorro, NM, USA
	The plasmasphere plays a central role in magnetosphere-ionosphere dynamics. Apart from hosting the waves which are responsible for the acceleration, decay and transport of radiation belt particles, the plasmasphere also plays an important role in spacecraft charging effects, and it is a significant contributor to TEC which contributes to GPS inaccuracies and communications problems. The Plasmaspheric Products for Space Weather Services is an ongoing ESA SSA SWE project. The major aim is to provide real-time specification of plasmaspheric characteristics and the resulting service improvements. Building on existing prototypes, in the project we develop, test and validate plasmaspheric specification and forecast products as part of the SSA SWE Service Network. The products include empirical and data assimilative models of plasmasphere and plasmatrough as well as of plasmapause. The empirical models are based on all available historical in-situ measurements, while the data assimilative models use the empirical model predictions and real time ground based density data. We are also developing various proxies based on LEO satellite and ground based measurements as well as a plasmasphere index that is intended to provide a simple characterization of the plasmasphere for general users. In this paper we present the various products under development.
5	Waves in the Inner Magnetosphere and their Effects on Radiation Belt Electrons [WIRE]	Wang, D et al.	Poster
	Dedong Wang[1], Yuri Shprits [1,2,3]
	[1] GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, [2] University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, [3] University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA
	The highly energetic electrons in the Earth’s radiation belts can be hazardous to Earth-orbiting satellites and astronauts in space. Many of the space systems on which modern human society depends operate in this region. The fluxes of energetic electrons in the radiation belts are very dynamic, which is not fully understood due to the delicate balance between various acceleration and loss processes. Wave-particle interactions are believed to play a crucial role in the acceleration and loss of these particles. To quantify the effect of different waves on the dynamics of radiation belt electrons, comprehensive wave models are needed. Currently, there are some wave models based on satellite measurements. However, the space coverage of these wave models is not sufficient due to the orbit limit of satellites. In this poster, we show our effort of combining state-of-the-art measurements from multiple satellites to develop comprehensive models. We will improve our Full Diffusion Code by using the wave models developed in this project and calculate diffusion coefficients using more realistic background magnetic field and plasma density models for the first time. With the help of our sophisticated physics-based radiation belt dynamic model (Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code), fundamental acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons caused by different waves in the Earth's radiation belts will be quantified. We will systematically validate simulation results against satellite measurements to understand the competition between acceleration and loss caused by various types of plasma waves. All these improvements will be critically important for answering the overarching scientific question: Why do the Earth’s radiation belts respond differently to geomagnetic storms which have approximately the same intensity? This project will open new horizons for understanding, predicting, and specifying the hazardous space environment.